Currency Report- Daily

Transcription

1 ASIA E.U U.S.A Currency Report- Daily Tuesday 14 Nov 2017 Global Market Overview High dividend-paying sectors including consumer staples and utilities saw rise in stock prices helping US indices move up yesterday. Developments around the US tax bill still in focus having negative impact on Asian stocks today, while observing if a marked flattening in the U.S. yield curve might ultimately be a signal of an economic slowdown there. Gold edged weaker in Asia early today with sentiment mixed after weaker than expected retail sales and industrial output in China. Oil markets were treading water today, continuing the cautious trading seen over the last week as bullish factors such as ongoing OPEC-led production cuts and Middle East tensions are countered by rising U.S. output. The dollar got support from higher U.S. Treasury yields in early Asian trading today, while sterling arrested a recent slide, which followed concerns about Theresa May's ability to stay on as British prime minister. The Indian unit is seen opening at against the Dollar and is expected to play the for the day. Markets Indices Last Close Previous Close % CHANGE Currencies Opening Closing % CHANGE S&P USDINR-S Dow Jones DXY NASDAQ EURUSD DAX GBPUSD FTSE USDJPY CAC USDCNY STOXX FPI FLOWS Current Previous NIKKEI Equity SHANGHAI Debt KOSPI Total HANG SENG SENSEX US 10Y NIFTY IRF

2 USDINR Intraday Outlook Fundamental Outlook: INR closed at against USD in last trading session with the intraday trading range of on the higher side and on the lower side. INR opened lower by 21 Paisa in yesterday s trading session as dollar edged up against its majors as US yields spiked and pound stumbled. Dollar is seen opening strongly in early trading session in Asian markets supported by continued spike in treasury yields and depreciation in Pound. However the current market focus is still on the developments happening at US tax overhaul front. Rupee is expected to get some support in today s trading session after yesterdays CPI data printed at 3.58% against the median market forecast of 3.46% thereby dampening any rate cut expectations by RBI in the coming policy meet. Market participants will be keenly watching for the WPI inflation update from Indian economy scheduled to be printed today. INR is expected to trade sideways in today s trading session. Technical Outlook: This is the daily chart of USDINR, the pair has traded in the range of on the higher side and 65.26on the lower side and traded with a positve bias, the pair had a strong opening after it gapped up, the par has violated the 200DMA placed at and now trending on the higher side, on the indicators front MACD has given a positive crossover and see a strong move on the upside in coming days. Intraday Bias Intraday Trading Strategy Intraday Range (SPOT) Bullish BUY USDINRFUT TGT SL Levels S3 S2 S1 (Futures) R R

3 EURINR Intraday Outlook Fundamental Outlook Euro closed at INR in previous trading session with the trading range of on the higher side and on lower side. However, it closed at against U.S Dollar with trading range of on the higher side and on lower side in NDF markets. Euro appreciated in last trading session ahead of major macroeconomic updates as well as gaining on the recent slide in pound. The surfeit of macroeconomic updates including German CPI, ZEW economic sentiment as well as EU s preliminary Q3 GDP and US October PPI figures are expected to be driving the common currency. The recent developments in US tax reform plans and political crisis unfolding in UK are most likely to push Euro higher in near term. Markets Participants will also be keenly watching the today s Central Bankers meet in Frankfurt to discuss communication aspect of monetary policy. Euro is expected to trade bullish in today s trading session. Technical Outlook This is the daily chart of EURUSD pair, the pair traded in a range of on the higher side and on the lower side, and traded with neutral bias the pair consolidated in a narrow range and saw strong movement in INR as USIDNR appreciated, the pair is in a broader range of until breaks expects consolidation to continue In the near future with prices trading below the medium term moving average of 50DMAbut for the day expects consolidation. Intraday Bias Intraday Trading Strategy Intraday Range (SPOT) Sideways BUY EURUSD TGT SL BUY EURINR FUT TGT SL Levels S3 S2 S1 R2 R3 (Futures)

4 GBPINR Intraday Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP closed at INR in yesterday s trading session with the trading range of on the higher side and on the lower side domestically whereas it closed at with the trading range of on the higher side and on the lower side against US dollar in NDF markets. Pound is expected to slide in today s trading session following the latest political update of 40 MP S willing to sign a letter of no confidence in the Prime Minister. The recent move has put the markets on alert for political crisis emanating out of the UK and any further political turbulence is likely to weigh on the pound further. The rising political uncertainty and a number of major macroeconomic updates including CPI YoY and PPI MoM figures which are expected to be higher than previous updates. Pound is expected to trade bearish in today s trading session. Technical Outlook This is the daily chart of GBPUSD pair the pair traded in a range of on the higher side and on the lower side, and had a volatile session last day, the pair has been trading volatile for past few days between the range of and ,the pair has a clusters of Moving averages of 20 ad 50DMA signifying supply at those levels while a medium term trend line support comes at likely to be volatile in the above mentioned range. Intraday Bias Sideways Levels (Futures) Intraday Trading Strategy BUY GBPUSD TGT SL Intraday Range (SPOT) BUY GBPINR FUT TGT SL S3 S2 S1 R2 R

5 JPYINR Intraday Outlook Fundamental Outlook Japanese Yen closed at INR per 100 Yen in previous trading session, trading in the range of on the higher side and on lower side. However, it closed at against U.S Dollar with trading range of on the higher side and on lower side in international markets. Japanese Yen appreciated in last trading session following on the better than expected PPI and Machine tool orders figures which printed at 3.4% and 49.9% in latest update. Japanese Yen edged up against domestic unit whereas remained flat in international NDF markets. Speculators will be keenly watching for the today s Central Bankers meet to discuss at the Central Bank Communications Conference hosted by European Central Bank in Frankfurt. Markets are expected to witness a pullback ahead of Prelim GDP update tomorrow snapping its recent rally against domestic unit. JPY is expected to trade sideways to bearish in today s trading session. Technical Outlook This is the dally chart of USDJPY pair, the pair was trading in a range of on the higher side and on the lower side,and traded with negative bias the pairhas taken support of 20DMA placed at and unable to close below, on the flip side the pair has been finding a strong resistance near the supply zone of with MACD remaining above the zero line but with a negative crossover expects sidewise trend to continue in the near future. Intraday Bias Intraday Trading Strategy Intraday Range (SPOT) Sideways BUY USDJPY TGT SL SELL JPYINR FUT TGT SL Levels S3 S2 S1 R2 R3 (Futures)

6 Currency USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Hedging Strategies November Imports Strategy November Exports Strategy Partially hedged at 65.00, & Spot. Partially hedged at & Spot. Partially booked at & Next target on Spot Partial booking to be done at Spot Partially booked at & Spot. Partial booking to be done at Spot Partially booked at Spot Partially hedged at Spot. Next Spot Economic Data for the Day Time Currency Data Forecast Previous 12:30 PM EUR German Prelim GDP q/q 0.6% 0.6% 01:35 PM USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks 03:00 PM GBP CPI y/y 3.1% 3.0% GBP PPI Input m/m 0.8% 0.4% GBP RPI y/y 4.1% 3.9% 03:30 PM EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks EUR Flash GDP q/q 0.6% 0.6% EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks 07:00 PM USD PPI m/m 0.1% 0.4% USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.4% 11:00 PM GBP MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks Report prepared by: Siddhesh Ghare siddhesh.ghare@karvy.com Deepak Agarwal deepak.agarwal@karvy.com Ashutosh Shukla ashutosh.shukla@karvy.com Head Office Karvy Millennium,Plot No 31, Financial District, Gachibowli, Hyderabad Corporate Office 131, Andheri Industrial Estate, Off Veera Desai Road, Andheri (W), Mumbai T: / 6635 T: , Mob No Disclaimer: The information and analysis contained in this document come from sources believed to be reliable and our own internal research; however, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute an offer to sell/purchase or an invitation/ solicitation to do so for any currency, security, commodity or equity. Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, howsoever arising, from any use of this document, its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.no part of this document can be circulated or reproduced in any form without prior approval of Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd.