Currency Highlights. 30 th Nov 2017

Transcription

1 Highlights: The dollar remained lower against other major currencies on Wednesday, as fresh tensions between the U.S. and North Korea overshadowed the previous session's upbeat U.S. data. Signs of progress with U.S. tax cuts and Europe's Brexit negotiations brought fresh highs for world stocks on Wednesday, while bitcoin topped $10,000 in a frenzy for cryptocurrencies. Euro zone government bond yields edged higher meanwhile as the first instalments of German state inflation data pointed to another uptick for Europe's largest economy, which should bolster the ECB's move to wind down its stimulus. U.K. and EU negotiators have reached a preliminary agreement on the divorce bill that Britain will pay when it leaves the bloc, but the deal still needs to go to national governments for approval, according to Bloomberg. Market Highlights Close Prev Cls. Price Chg Price Chg % Doller Index USD/INR (Spot) USD/INR (Nse Nov) EUR/INR (Spot) EUR/INR (Nse Nov) GBP/INR (Spot) GBP/INR (Nse Nov) JPY/INR (Nse Nov) Euro-area companies are the most upbeat about the outlook than at any time since the financial crisis, one more element in a pickup that s put the region s economy on course for its strongest performance in years. The Bank of England said total net lending to individuals increased by 4.8 billion last month, above forecasts for 4.3 billion. The lending rate was below the 5.2 billion lent in September, which was revised down from 5.5 billion. Growth in lending to British consumers cooled again in October to an 18-month low, according to data that may ease concerns among Bank of England officials concerned about the buildup of household debt. BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said he did not think British households as a whole were going on a "debt-fueled binge" but added that fast rates of consumer credit growth needed to be watched. China's trade deficit in services narrowed to $17.8 billion in October from $22.2 billion in September, the foreign exchange regulator said on Monday. Norway's $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund said on Tuesday it found no significant differences in expected return for oil and gas stocks and the market. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to pull out of NAFTA if the treaty is not reworked to better serve U.S. interests, spooking investors and prompting Mexico to try to diversify its trade. U.S. oil prices fell more than 1 percent on Monday, easing from two-year highs on prospects of higher supply from a planned restart of the Keystone crude pipeline and uncertainty about Russia's resolve to join in extending output cuts ahead of this week's Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting.

2 USDINR JPYINR On the daily chart, USDINR has given trendline breakout and traded on lows, which indicate the downward trend in the pair. Furthermore, Price has found the resistance 200 days EMA and traded in down side, which suggest short term bearishness. In addition, A daily momentum indicator RSI (14) has given a trend line breakdown. On the basis of above technical structure, we expect prices should move further down towards 64 levels in the up-coming trading sessions. On the daily chart, JPYINR has been trading in channel pattern and going in upward trend. However, yesterday it has moved downward and closed the session in negative zone. Moreover, Price has moved and closed below 50 DMA after several trading session. Furthermore, A daily momentum indicator RSI (14) has retraced from overbought zone which suggest some correction in the pair. Based on the above technical studies, we expect bearish movement in the pair towards Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 USDINR JPYINR

3 GBPINR EURINR GBPINR has slipped from high on Tuesday and closed the day in negative zone, which indicate further selling pressure in the pair. On the daily chart, GBPINR has formed falling channel pattern and traded near the upper line of the channel, where it has found the resistance of the line & moved further down. In addition, A daily momentum indicator RSI reading is below 50 level with negative crossover, which point out negative movement in the pair. As per the above technical structure, we expect bearish move in the pair towards levels. On Tuesday, EURINR has started the day with negative note and continued the down trend for entire day. On the daily chart, EURINR has been trading near the falling trendline which react as resistance zone for the pair and price has retraced from the top to down. Furthermore, Momentum indicator RSI (14) has failed to sustain above the line and moved towards oversold zone. In addition, A momentum indicator MACD has sustained below the zero line and shown negative crossover. Based on the above technical studies or indicator, we can expect prices to move down towards the 76 levels in the coming trading sessions. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 EURINR GBPINR

4 Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact 29/11/2017 All Day OPEC Meetings /11/ :00 PM Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.5B 4.3B Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency; GBPINR 29/11/ :00 PM Prelim GDP q/q 3.0% 3.3% Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency; USDINR 29/11/ :30PM BOE Gov Carney Speaks 29/11/ :30PM Fed Chair Yellen Testifies 29/11/ :30PM Pending Home Sales m/m 0.0% 1.1% Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency; USDINR 29/11/ :00PM Crude Oil Inventories -1.9M

5 Kkunal Parar Sr. Research Associate Ankur Lakhotia Sr. Research Associate Rupak De Research Associate for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped 0.27% to $1, a troy ounce. Demand from Sachin Gupta Research Associate sachin.gupta@choiceindia.com