Currencies Daily Report

Transcription

1 Currencies Daily Report Powered by Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd. Tuesday 19 Sep 2017 Market Overview Dow Jones closed at record highs for 5th consecutive day whereas as S&P500 closed at record highs for 2nd straight day, mainly lifted by financial stocks ahead of US Federal Reserve meeting. While NASDAQ trimmed its gains as technology stocks lost the grounds late in the session. Asian equities are trading mixed ahead of Fed s policy meeting on Wednesday as the investors await for clues on timing for the next rate hike from Fed Chair Yellen. While the Fed is largely expected to announce plans on unwinding its $4.2 trillion balance sheet in tomorrow s policy meeting. Indian Rupee is expected to open near against a closing of in last session. With no major events being lined up from the Indian economy, markets appetite for US dollar is likely to drive the USD-INR pair for the day. Expect the USD-INR pair to trade in a range of on the lower side and on the upper side. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Monday that Brexit is likely to hurt Britain's growth prospects in the short term and push up inflation as the country adjusts to life outside the European Union. In a speech, Carney warned that Britain would face a cost for reworking its trade relationships. In the short term, the weakening of trade ties with its EU partners would not be offset by new agreements with other countries, he said, as he repeated his argument from last week that interest rates would probably need to rise soon. "This makes Brexit, relative to the experience of the past half century, unique," Carney said in a speech at the International Monetary Fund's Washington headquarters. "It will be, at least for a period of time, an example of deglobalization, not globalization." Brexit supporters say the freedom to strike new trade deals is one of the big advantages of leaving the European Union. Indices Last Close Previous Close % CHANGE NASDAQ 6, , DOW JONES NIKKEI HANGSENG Currencies Today Morning Yesterday at 05:00 PM % CHANGE DXY EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY Today Morning Yesterday at 05:00 PM % CHANGE USDINR Spot IRF

2 USDINR Intraday Outlook Indian Rupee has closed at in previous session, there are no major economic reports published from the Indian Rupee. Even the regional calendar remains light today. While looking into the US dollar it is trading at after trading in 40 pips range in last session. Even there was nothing reported from US economy in last session but the demand for US dollar against majors was slightly higher as the market participants await for Fed s policy meeting on Wednesday. The expectations on tomorrow sfomc meeting are high thought there are no changes to happen on interest rates front but this meeting would is expected to give further guidance on clues on timing for the next rate hike from Fed Chair Yellen. And also the Fed is largely expected to announce plans on unwinding its $4.2 trillion balance sheet in tomorrow s policy meeting.markets were waiting since the fed indicated about trimming its balance sheet and even fed officials have said they are likely to announce the reduction in fed s asset purchasing program by end of the year. While coming to today s session US August Housing starts and Building Permits numbers along with US Q2 Current Account, Export and Import Price Index figures scheduled to be released. But the key driver for the day would be markets appetite for US dollar at least before the Federal Reserve s meet. This is the daily chart of USDINR, the pair has traded in the range of on the higher side and 63.99on the lower side, the pair traded sidewise during the day and was consolidating in a narrow range and likely to open near 64.20if sustain above can head higher with 50DMA placed at expects higher levels, so traders for the day can utilize dip to initiate long positions. Sideways BUY USDINR FUT TGT SL S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 (Futures) R R Exporters Strategy September Exports partially booked at & Spot September Imports hedged completely between Spot

3 EURINR Intraday Outlook EURO against US dollar is trading at , rebounding from the lows of in yesterday s session. When yesterday s trading session has started the EURO has witnessed some weakness against US dollar as the Dollar bounced as markets were optimistic about upcoming FOMC meeting where the interest rates are expected to remain unchanged and fed is largely expected to announce long awaited plans on unwinding its $4.2 trillion balance sheet. But later in yesterday s session the euro has slightly gained on back EZ data where the Consumer prices were reported stable at 1.5% for the month of August where the same was reported at 1.3% in the month of July. While the ECB s Sabine Lautenschlaeger who spoke later yesterday afternoon dint touch anything on to the policy front. Looking forward we have Zew economic sentiment scheduled to be released from both German and Eurozone and this numbers will gauge 6-month outlook for the Eurozone. Despite the data expect the trading to remain subdued ahead of tomorrow s FOMC meeting. This is the daily chart of EURUSD pair, the pair traded in a range of on the higher side and on the lower side and traded side wise, the pair has been trading in range for the past few days and taking support near 20DMA placed at , the pair has made a shooting star kind of pattern few days back and now consolidating expects the consolidation to continue before the FOMC meet schedule on 20th, so traders can utilize dips to initiate longs. Sideways-Bullish BUY EURUSD TGT SL BUY EURINR FUT TGT 76.97SL S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 (Futures) Exporters Strategy September Exports partially booked at 76.50/60 Spot. Next tranche booked at September Imports to be booked close to 76 Spot

4 GBPINR Intraday Outlook Pound closed at against USD in previous day s trading session, trading in the range of on the higher side and on the lower side. BoE governor Mark Carney dialed back on his hawkish comments on interest rates indicating that any future rate hikes would be limited and gradual which led to decline in Pound against U.S Dollar in yesterday s trading session. Pound has surged nearly 3% in last one week on the back of BoE s governor s hawkish tone which has increased the odds of a recent rate hike. Market participants are expecting Britain to shift from its ultra loose monetary policy regime on the grounds of inflation reaching its target of 2% and a foreseeable strong growth outlook of country. Markets are now focusing on upcoming retail sales which are expected to drop on MoM and YoY basis based on the median market forecast. Pound is expected to see a consolidation at these levels with sideways to negative bias for the day. GBPINR is trading at at the time of writing this report and is expected to follow the broader market trend. This is the daily chart of GBPUSD pair, during the day, the pair was trading in broader range of on the higher side and on the lower side, the pair saw some profit booking from the higher levels after its extended run from 1.32 levels and now trading near 1.35 with MACD and pair making higher top and bottom expects levels likely to act pivot for the day. Sideways-Bullish BUY GBPUSD TGT SL BUY GBPINR FUT TGT SL S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 (Futures) Exporters Strategy September Exports partially booked at Spot. Next tranche booked at Spot September Imports fully hedged at a stop of on Spot

5 JPYINR Intraday Outlook Japanese Yen closed at per 100 INR in previous day s trading session, trading in the range of the higher side and on lower side. Yen closed at against U.S Dollar in previous day s trading session, extending its decline for the day while trading in the range of on the higher side and on the lower side. Most of the moves in Yen are expected to be dollar driven with market focusing on U.S FOMC meeting due on 20th September in which Fed Chair Janet Yellen could provide guidance on tapering of its bond buying program and unwinding of USD 4.5 trillion bond portfolio. BoJ s monetary policy meeting is due on 21st September though no change in its ultra loose monetary policy stance is expected by the markets with interest rates remaining at the same level till the sustained 2% inflation target is achieved to safeguard Japanese export oriented economy from falling into a deflationary spiral. The trading range is expected to be capped at on the upside at least before tomorrow s U.S FOMC meeting. This is the dally chart of USDJPY pair, the pair was trading in a range of on the higher side and on the lower side, the pair had a narrow range last day, and now trading near the upper Bollinger band if sustain above with MACD remaining on the buy side and prices are making higher high in smaller time frame expects 112 I the near term. Sideways BUY USDJPY TGT SL SELL JPYINR FUT TGT SL S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 (Futures) Exporters Strategy September Exports partially booked at Spot September Imports partially booked at Spot. Next tranche booked at Spot

6 Economic Data for the Day Time Currency Data Forecast Previous 2:30pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment :00pm USD Building Permits 1.22M 1.23M USD Current Account -115B -117B USD Housing Starts 1.17M 1.16M USD Import Prices m/m 0.40% Report prepared by: Siddhesh Ghare Deepak Agarwal Shashank Damaraju Head Office Karvy Millennium,Plot No 31, Financial District, Gachibowli, Hyderabad T: / 6635 Corporate Office 131, Andheri Industrial Estate, Off Veera Desai Road, Andheri (W), Mumbai T: , Mob No Disclaimer: The information and analysis contained in this document come from sources believed to be reliable and our own internal research; however, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute an offer to sell/purchase or an invitation/ solicitation to do so for any currency, security, commodity or equity. Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, howsoever arising, from any use of this document, its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.no part of this document can be circulated or reproduced in any form without prior approval of Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd.