IndiaNivesh Weekly Pulse
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1 17th Nov 2017 IndiaNivesh Weekly Pulse RETAIL TECHNICAL RESEARCH Moody s upgrade changed the Mood on D Street Will it change the determination of the Bears? Close Chart 1 : Nifty - Daily R1 / R / S1 / S / EMA EMA EMA 9629 Ninad Tamhanekar, CMT Technical Analyst - Equity Tel: ninad.tamhanekar@indianivesh.in Mehul Kothari Sr. Technical Analyst - Equity Tel: mehul.kothari@indianivesh.in Market Outlook In our previous edition of Nivesh Weekly Pulse we discussed about the Bearish Three Outside Down candlestick pattern on the daily chart of Nifty. In line with that pattern, the index sneaked below the mentioned support of at the beginning of the week. However, in last couple of sessions the markets rebounded sharply due to oversold conditions and stable global cues. In addition, the upgradation of India s sovereign bond rating by Moody s was like an icing on the cake for the bulls. Eventually, the index pared most of its weekly loss and closed flat. After today s gap up opening the Nifty got stuck near mark which was the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent fall from As a result we initiated buy in NIFTY (Nov) PE at 55 for the target of 100 and 150. In line with that view the index wiped off much of its gain which pulled the put towards 87 marks. Till the time the level of is not taken out convincingly the all-time high of might remain untouched. On the downside, going ahead could act as an intermediate support below which a fresh round of correction might start. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 17th Nov of 12
2 Trend lines in Actions Chart 2 : SRF Daily (Prev. Close : 1773) Chart 3 : JUBILANT Daily (Prev. Close : 677) SRF is at a threshold of a key falling trend line. A convincing move above 1780 can recuperate momentum in the stock. (Bullish) Bulls would stage comeback, as JUBILANT has closed above falling trend line, indicating trend change. (Bullish) Chart 4 : YES BANK - Weekly (Prev. Close : 306) Chart 5: INFY Daily (Prev. Close : 971) A Doji candlestick pattern at crucial support trend line signposts probable suspension of the current bear trend. (Neutral) For a bullish confirmation, stock needs to close above vital trend line on a Daily chart. (Neutral). Trend lines are a visual representation of support and resistance in any timeframe and a simple tool available for trend analysis. The greater the number of touch points increases the importance, break on the either side may lead to major moves or trend reversals. The above charts will help you go through recent trend line breakouts / breakdowns. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 17th Nov of 12
3 Volume Shockers Chart 6 : BASF Weekly (Prev. Close : 1946) Chart 7 : REPCOHOMES Weekly (Prev. Close : 621) Recorded highest ever volumes since August 2012 along with price breakout, suggesting continuation of bull trend. (Bullish) For the first time since July 2014, stock recorded such a volume accompanied with Double Bottom formation, signposts possible trend change. (Bearish) Chart 8 : EVEREADY Weekly (Prev. Close : 398) Chart 9 : INFRATEL Weekly (Prev. Close : 380) Two years consolidation breakout along with almost 3x Volumes of 10 weeks average, indicates acceleration of momentum. (Bullish) Almost 5x Volumes of 10 weeks average, which is highest ever volumes accompanied with fall in price, raises concern for the stock. (Bearish) The given stocks witnessed climatic volumes during the week went by. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 17th Nov of 12
4 Bollinger Band breakouts / breakdowns Chart 10 : GATI - Daily (Prev. Close : 131) Chart 11 : NLC INDIA - Daily (Prev. Close : 104) Upsurge in volatility after consolidation at lower range suggest change in trend. (Bullish) Eight months consolidation might be getting over, as prices closed above upper Bollinger band. (Bullish) Chart 12 : DLF - Weekly (Prev. Close : 223) Chart 13 : HEIDELBERG- Daily (Prev. Close : 167) A close above upper Bollinger band indicates that the stock is gearing for fresh up move. (Bullish) One year consolidation breakout confirmed as price closed above upper Bollinger band. (Bullish) Bollinger Band contraction represents period of low volatility and may be considered by traders for a potential sign of future increased volatility and possible trading opportunities. Thus, in the above examples we have shared few stocks which underwent a breakout / breakdown from the Bollinger band that indicating further acceleration in the on-going trend. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 17th Nov of 12
5 The Averages An exponential moving average (EMA) is a variant of moving average which is similar to a simple moving average, apart from the weightage as more weight is given to the recent closing prices. We have added 50, 100 and 200 DEMA to our analysis which represents shortterm, medium term and long term trend respectively. As short term traders can use 50 DEMA swing trading decisions, while 100 DEMA can be used by medium term. The long-term investors will focus on 200 DEMA and could consider the same for accumulation & distribution of their investments. The Daily Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) is suited for trending market however it could possibly witness multiple cross over in sideways trend. When the market is trending and in oscillation mode as well has sustained trending nature, the DEMA will also show a similar oscillation & vice-versa. However to limit the multiple whipsaws to a certain extent, the stocks mentioned in the table have closed 1% above or below the respective moving averages. Going ahead, these averages can be can act as initial filter to on-going trend, or could possibly consider as support and & resistance. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 17th Nov of 12
6 Nifty 50 Overbought / Oversold Stocks above 70 & below 30 Relative Strength Index RSI- The above shown chart represents the comparison of price action of benchmark index Nifty vis a vis the overbought/ oversold zone of Nifty 50 stocks considering the value of daily RSI. The Overbought zone occurs when the RSI value crosses 70 levels while the oversold zone occurs when it plunges below 30 levels. As per last three years data, we can analyse that, whenever the number of overbought stocks in Nifty 50 goes above 12 the market tend to make an intermediate top, while oversold position occurs when number of oversold stocks of Nifty 50 goes above 13 the market tend to form intermediate bottom. As per the above logic, for the first time since July 2017 number of overbought stocks in Nifty has risen to 9. However one needs to be cautious when this number crosses 13. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 17th Nov of 12
7 Stock of the Week BUY Prev. Close 89 Chart 14: TATAPOWER Monthly Chart Target 112 Stop Loss Weeks High Weeks Low EMA EMA EMA Stock Outlook The stock is on the verge of a breakout from the long term falling trend line as shown in the above chart. Also, a breakout above the 90 mark on closing basis will confirm a bullish Cup and Handle pattern. The ongoing bullish price action is supported with positive placement of momentum oscillators. Thus, we recommend buying the stock in the range with a stop loss of 81 for target of 102 / 112. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 17th Nov of 12
8 Weekly Derivatives Analysis Weekly - Open Interest Shockers Nifty Option Snapshot The highest open interest is seen at strikes CE of 6 mn shares, while on the PUT side, the highest open interest is seen at strikes PE to the tune of 4.66mn shares. On a w-o-w basis, significant short addition has emerged at strikes CE to the tune of 37 lakh shares along with liquidation in strikes PE to the tune of 33 Lakh shares respectively. The above mentioned data indicates that the Nifty is likely confine in a range of And a move above in VIX would bring fresh momentum in the market. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 17th Nov of 12
9 Annexure BUY PRICE Chart 16: WOCKPHARMA Revise Stop Loss Rec. Date 27 th Oct 2017 Target 760 High / Low 743 Cmp 711 Action Revise SL 650 We gave a LONG recommendation in WOCKPHARMA near 660 mark on 27 TH Oct 2017 for the upside target of 760. The stock made a high of 743 which is almost 12% and is now trading near 710. We advise traders to hold the long positions until our next update with a revised stop loss of 650 from the actual stop of 620 IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 17th Nov of 12
10 Weekly Pulse MIS IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 17th Nov of 12
11 Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited ( INSL ), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. INSL includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, employees and affiliates. This document is published in accordance with Regulation 18 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, INSL researches, aggregates and faithfully reproduces information available in public domain and other sources, considered to be reliable and makes them available for the recipient, though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by INSL independently and cannot be guaranteed. This document is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded or published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from INSL. This document is solely for information purpose and should not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. INSL does not take responsibility thereof. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by INSL independently and cannot be guaranteed. INSL has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. The research analysts of INSL have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, accounting and/or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to recipients specific circumstances. INSL does not accept any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, assurances and statements given or made available herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Information mentioned is the current information as of the date appearing on this document only. INSL directors/ employees and its clients may have holdings in the stocks mentioned in the document. This report is based on technical and derivative analysis on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. Following table contains the disclosure of interest in order to adhere to utmost transparency in the matter. Disclosure of Interest Statement 1 Details of business activity of IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (INSL) INSL is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE and MCX - SX in all the major segments viz. Cash, F & O and CDS segments. INSL is also a Depository Participant and registered with both Depository viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, INSL is a Registered Portfolio Manager and is registered with SEBI. 2 Details of Disciplinary History of INSL No disciplinary action is / was running / initiated against INSL 3 Details of Associates of INSL Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates' financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates' actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the document. Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates' any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the document Has research analyst or INSL or its associates received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months Has research analyst or INSL or its associates managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months Has research analyst or INSL or its associates received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months Has research analyst or INSL or its associates received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months Has research analyst or INSL or its associates received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the document. Please refer to the important 'Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the IndiaNivesh website (investment Research Section - link). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. INSL and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. No (except to the extent of shares held by Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates') Please refer to the important 'Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the IndiaNivesh website (investment Research Section - link). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. INSL and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. No No No No No No 12 Has research analyst served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company No 13 Has research analyst or INSL engaged in market making activity for the subject company No 14 Other disclosures No IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 17th Nov of 12
12 INSL, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. This information is subject to change, as per applicable law, without any prior notice. INSL reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement, as may be required, from time to time. IndiaNivesh Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH Corporate Office: Lodha Supremus, 17th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel (West), Mumbai Registered Office: 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel (Board): Fax: research@indianivesh.in Website: IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 17th Nov of 12
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