Weekly Report 28 th November 15

Transcription

1 Weekly Report 28 th November 15 Research Team IFA Global

2 The Week That Was!!! The US Dollar index began the week in a corrective mode receding to levels as nothing surfaced from the much hyped emergency US Federal Reserve meeting. The correction however was short lived and the rally commenced again as US Durable Goods data for the month of October and US Initial Jobless claims came in better than expected. The US Dollar made a high of this week a tad shy of its March 2015 high of The Euro attempted to claw back against the US Dollar but ran into strong resistance around Reports that the ECB could expand its QE program in its meeting on 3rd December 2015 by increasing either the quantum of its purchases or by including other assets such as rebundled loans triggered a fresh wave of sell off in the common currency. Strong data from the US also aided the slide. There were also reports that the ECB is mulling implementing a two tier penalty charge system for banks leaving cash with it proved to be a strong support for the pair as it rebounded twice from that level this week. On the domestic front, the Rupee continued to depreciate during the course of the week. Weakness in emerging market currencies on apprehension of December rate hike, coupled with overall strength in the US Dollar index weighed on the domestic currency. USD/INR faced resistance around but once that level was taken out, the pair went on to retest the September high of to eventually end the week at The Week Ahead The next week belongs to central bankers as a host of central bankers across the global are scheduled to speak. Markets and traders alike are likely to look for further guidance from these speeches. On the economic data point, we have the most important Chinese manufacturing PMI. Chinese PMI will have direct impact on the currencies, especially emerging market currencies. From the US, we have the ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the NFP payrolls data for December. This data will be equally important as data points from US have the added importance if seen impending rate hike perspective. BoE governor Carney, ECB President Draghi and US Fed Chair Yellen are expected to speak this week. On the domestic front, all eyes would be on the RBI monetary policy due on 1st December. Market participants would look at the tone of RBI governor, given that the recent CPI data have been dismal. Market participants will also look forward to any new announcement that RBI makes; they will also look for any indication regarding the introduction of currency futures in cross currencies which was discussed in the last policy meet.

3 Charts of the week USDINR Weekly Chart USD/INR Weekly Chart In the weekly chart of USDINR, we are observing that the uptrend in the pair continues as the pair has breached the previous top. Broadly, the pair has initially given a cup & handle breakout above and it was further confirmed with a symmetrical triangle breakout. As the pair has given a breakout the strategy is to buy the pair on dips. Weekly RSI is showing strength and is in a buy mode. We expect the up move in the pair to continue up to levels of If is breached on the upside the next target is which is the cup & handle pattern target. CAD/INR Daily Chart In the daily chart of CADINR, we are observing that the prices are trading near the upper band of a symmetrical triangle. The pair is broadly trading in a primary downtrend as we are clearly observing a lower top lower bottom formation. As the pair is trading in a downtrend and is near the upper band of a continuation pattern exporters are advised to hedge their position. The pair is expected to correct up to levels of which is the lower band of the symmetrical triangle. CAD/INR Daily Chart

4 Economic Calendar of the upcoming week Date 30-Nov-Mon 30-Nov-Mon 02-Dec-Wed 04-Dec-Fri 04-Dec-Fri Event CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI AUD RBA Meeting GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks AUD GDP q/q USD ISM Manufacturing PMI USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks EUR ECB Press Conference AUD Retail Sales m/m USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI USD Non-farm Payrolls USD Unemployment Rate India Forex Advisors Pvt. Ltd. : 7th Floor- Sangita Ellipse Sahakar Road Vile Parle (East) Mumbai 57 admin@indiaforex.in

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