Daily Market Update Report as on Thursday, October 04, 2018

Transcription

1 Daily Market Update Report as on Thursday, October 04, 2018 Gold gained on worries over Italian finances. EU officials expressed concerns about Italy s financial budget plan and fears of a widening budget deficit drove up safe-haven demand. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hailed a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy that he feels is on the verge of a historically rare era of ultra-low unemployment and tame prices for the foreseeable future. India s gold imports may rise in the fourth quarter as investors seek alternatives to faltering equity markets and a plunging rupee at the same time traditional buying will rise during the festival season, said multiple sources involved in the market. Increased buying by the world s second-biggest gold consumer would support global prices that have traded roughly near $1,200 an ounce since late August, but also widen India s trade deficit and add to pressure on the Indian rupee, which fell to a record low on Wednesday. In the fourth quarter of 2018, gold imports could rise 9 percent from a year ago to 250 tonnes. In the fourth quarter of 2017, India imported tonnes of gold, according to metals consultancy GFMS. Sales of gold products by the Perth Mint surged in September to their highest since January 2017, while silver sales more than doubled from August to mark an over two-year peak, boosted by lower bullion prices, the mint said. Sales of gold coins and minted bars surged 61 percent from August to 62,552 ounces last month, the mint said. Gold sales in September rose about 35 percent from a year-ago period. Silver sales soared 151 percent from August to 1,305,600 ounces, their highest since March From a year earlier, sales advanced about 87 percent. High price of gold, delayed decision on making hallmarking mandatory and shrinking margins have turned the mood sombre ahead of the festive season at Zaveri Bazaar, the largest gold market in Asia. Prices are ruling high, thanks to the depreciating rupee. There is hardly any demand in the market for the yellow metal right now as consumers are holding back their purchase decision. Gold imports in September are expected to be half compared to August, when the country had imported around 90 tonnes of gold. This month imports will be around tonnes, said Mukesh Kothari, director, Riddi-Siddhi Bullions. Gold prices have shot up 3.5 per cent in last one month on account of depreciating rupee. The margins in B2B trade in Zaveri Bazaar are also under pressure. Hedge funds and money managers raised their net short position in COMEX gold contracts in the week to Sept. 25, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. They also trimmed their net short position in silver contracts and switched to a net long position in copper futures and options, according to the data. Gold speculators raised their net short position by 2,923 lots to 77,313 lots, the largest in three weeks, according to CFTC data. Hedge funds and money managers cut their net short position in silver by 2,648 contracts to 42,409 contracts, CFTC data showed. Date Gold* Silver* 03 Oct 2018 (Wednesday) Oct 2018 (Monday) Sep 2018 (Friday) The above rate are IBJA PM rates * Rates are exclusive of GST 03 Oct 2018 (Wednesday) Page 1

2 Outlook: Gold prices gained buoyed by safe-haven demand as Italy's budget plan sets it on course for a potential clash with the European Union. For the day prices a drop towards will look to buy with a stoploss of below expecting prices to jump towards level. MCX GOLD Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread FEB - DEC APR - FEB Gold on MCX settled up 1.31% at on worries over Italian finances. EU officials expressed concerns about Italy s financial budget plan and fears of a widening budget deficit drove up safe-haven demand. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hailed a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy that he feels is on the verge of a historically rare era of ultra-low unemployment and tame prices for the foreseeable future. The Fed s point-person on the theory of how high to raise interest rates said that estimating this neutral level is getting more difficult and less relevant as the U.S. central bank continues tightening policy. Sales of gold products by the Perth Mint surged in September to their highest since January 2017, while silver sales more than doubled from August to mark an over two-year peak, boosted by lower bullion prices, the mint said. Sales of gold coins and minted bars surged 61 percent from August to 62,552 ounces last month, the mint said. Gold sales in September rose about 35 percent from a year-ago period. China's net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong fell 29 percent in August from the previous month, data showed. Imports via Hong Kong to China, the world's top consumer of the metal, decreased to tonnes in August from tonnes in July, according to data mailed to Reuters by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Holdings in the world s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell 0.32 percent to 23,721, ounces. Technically now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 31562, a move above could see prices testing Page 2

3 INT. GOLD$ Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Resistance Support Outlook: Gold price keeps declining to start testing the EMA50 that forms intraday support at , and the price needs to break this level to confirm the continuation of the bearish bias that its first target located at Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions conditioned by holding below Gold remained supported on worries over Italian finances. EU officials expressed concerns about Italy s financial budget plan and fears of a widening budget deficit drove up safe-haven demand. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hailed a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy that he feels is on the verge of a historically rare era of ultra-low unemployment and tame prices for the foreseeable future. The Fed s point-person on the theory of how high to raise interest rates said that estimating this neutral level is getting more difficult and less relevant as the U.S. central bank continues tightening policy. Sales of gold products by the Perth Mint surged in September to their highest since January 2017, while silver sales more than doubled from August to mark an over two-year peak, boosted by lower bullion prices, the mint said. Sales of gold coins and minted bars surged 61 percent from August to 62,552 ounces last month, the mint said. Gold sales in September rose about 35 percent from a year-ago period. China's net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong fell 29 percent in August from the previous month, data showed. Imports via Hong Kong to China, the world's top consumer of the metal, decreased to tonnes in August from tonnes in July, according to data mailed to Reuters by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Holdings in the world s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell 0.32 percent to 23,721, ounces. Technically now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Page 3

4 Rupee dropped to a record low as a sharp rise in global crude oil prices heaped more pressure on the currency, prompting the central bank to quickly intervene to slow its fall. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.46% to settled at , now USDINR is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 73.85, a move above could see prices testing USDINR Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread NOV - OCT DEC - NOV Rupee dropped to a record low as a sharp rise in global crude oil prices heaped more pressure on the currency, prompting the central bank to quickly intervene to slow its fall. The partially convertible rupee hit per dollar, an all-time low, and sharply lower than its previous close of The Reserve Bank of India stepped into the market to sell dollars, helping the rupee retrace to as much as to the dollar. India s central bank is widely expected to raise its policy repo rate at a review on Friday in a bid to slow the rupee s decline and rein in inflationary pressures. Adding to that, the greenback stood tall after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered remarks on monetary policy in the current environment of low inflation and low unemployment in remarks at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics. Also, dollar demand strengthened on safe haven bids as concerns on political wrangling over Italy's budget plan rattled market sentiment weighing on the euro. Indian factory activity expanded more quickly in September on strong domestic and export order growth, a business survey showed, a welcome sign of strength as policy makers worry about a sharp drop in the rupee and fallout from global trade frictions. Taken together with evidence of higher inflation pressures from a weak currency and rising oil prices, the survey results may bolster already-firming expectations for an interest rate hike this week from the Reserve Bank of India. Technically now USDINR is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 73.85, a move above could see prices testing Page 4

5 Gold Spot 995 Gold Spot 999 Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last* CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad CMDTY Gold Bangalore CMDTY Gold Bangalore CMDTY Gold Chennai CMDTY Gold Chennai CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Hyderabad CMDTY Gold Hyderabad CMDTY Gold Jaipur CMDTY Gold Jaipur CMDTY Gold Kolkata CMDTY Gold Mumbai CMDTY Gold Mumbai * Rates including GST * Rates including GST Silver Spot 999 Bullion Futures on MCX Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last CMDTY Silver Ahmedabad MCX GOLD 04AUG CMDTY Silver Bangalore MCX GOLD 05OCT CMDTY Silver Chennai MCX GOLD 05DEC CMDTY Silver Delhi MCX SILVER 05JUL CMDTY Silver Hyderabad MCX SILVER 05SEP CMDTY Silver Jaipur MCX SILVER 05DEC CMDTY Silver Kolkata CMDTY Silver Mumbai * Rates including GST Bullion Futures on DGCX Gold and Silver Fix Exch. Descr. Last Exch. Descr. Last DGCX GOLD 28NOV CMDTY Gold London AM FIX DGCX GOLD 29JAN CMDTY Gold London PM FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 29NOV CMDTY Silver London FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 30JAN DGCX SILVER 28NOV Gold / Silver Ratio DGCX SILVER 26FEB Exch. Descr. Last DGCX SILVER QUANTO 29NOV INTL. SPOT GOLD SILVER RATIO MCX MCX GOLD SILVER RATIO Page 5

6 Report is prepared for information purposes only. Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. Mumbai. INDIA. Mobile: / info@kediacommodity.com URL: General Disclaimers: This Report is prepared and distributed by Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale through KSCRPL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportuni. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by KSCRPL to be reliable. IBJA and KSCRPL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of IBJA and KSCRPL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will be taken by KSCRPL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/ or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. KSCRPL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to KSCRPL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India. Page 6