Daily Market Update Report as on Tuesday, August 21, 2018
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1 Daily Market Update Report as on Tuesday, August 21, 2018 Gold prices turned higher in yesterday s session as improving risk appetite triggered a reversal of haven-seeking capital flows buoying the US Dollar, sending the currency lower and offering a lift to metal prices. Investors rosier disposition reflected hopes for de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China. Yestetrday the US dollar index fell below 96 to the lowest in almost one week at on Monday after US President Donald Trump scorned the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates. Trump told Reuters he was "not thrilled" with Fed Chair Jerome Powell for the bumps to the federal funds rate. He said he would criticise the Fed if it continues to elevate the cost of borrowing. Global gold-price softening trend to last for months, not years: WGC - The WGC sees the current softening trend in international gold prices lasting only for months rather than years, a top official said. In the short term, a reversal of much of the price weakness in the gold markets since June this year can be expected, John Reade, WGC, told in an interview. The weakness in international gold prices has nothing to do with the demand situation in the Indian gold market, which he said was expected to be quite orderly and stable this year. $700 Gold Is Possible - If you haven't noticed, no one is buying gold as a safe haven anymore. The current turmoil in Turkey, Argentina, China, and emerging markets has not moved gold at all. Investment demand continues to fall. Gold jewelry demand in India will fall at a much faster pace in the future. Gold bulls like to emphasize that people in many of the above countries buy gold to hedge against currency depreciation. However this time this has not happened. Yes, the people in the above countries who already had gold did offset the slide of the value of their currency, but for those who don't have gold, buying it is not easy when your currency depreciates. Turkey in particular comes to mind, since in dollars terms their GDP has fallen by about 50% over the past several months. Chinese ETF Investors Throw Gold a Lifeline - Just when you thought investors have given up on gold, the Chinese swooped in. On Friday, as prices of Bosera Gold Open-End ETF slumped to the lowest since December 2016, the exchange-traded fund attracted $68 million, the most in almost three months. The fund has taken in over $1 billion dollars this year, making it the secondmost popular ETF backed by a precious metal, behind Frankfurt-listed Xtrackers Physical Gold ETC, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bullion has been shunned by American speculators recently, with money managers boosting their net-short position to a record for a fourth straight week. Physical gold demand in India regained momentum in the week as jewellers stocked up after prices dipped to their lowest in over seven months, with lower prices attracting fresh buying and driving premiums higher in other major Asian hubs as well. Dealers in India, the second biggest gold consumer after China, were charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce, compared with a discount of $1.5 last week. Jewellers are again becoming active in the market due to the price correction and good sales at the exhibition. India's gold imports rose for the first time in seven months in July to 75 tonnes, provisional data from metals consultancy GFMS showed. In China, premiums rose to $3 to $5 an ounce in the week from last week's $2-$3, while premiums in Hong- Kong were around 90 cents-$1.50 versus 70 cents to $1.30 previously. Date Gold* Silver* 20 Aug 2018 (Monday) Aug 2018 (Friday) Aug 2018 (Thursday) The above rate are IBJA PM rates * Rates are exclusive of GST 20 Aug 2018 (Monday) Page 1
2 Market View Open MCX GOLD High Low Close Value Change % Change 2938 Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Daily Levels Resistance Support Outlook: Gold prices rose on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar, extending gains into a third session after U.S. Prev Value(Mln) president Donald Trump said he was not thrilled with the U.S. Federal Reserve for raising interest rates. For the day prices a drop towards will look to buy with a stoploss of below expecting prices to jump 52 Week High FEB - DEC towards level. 52 Week Low Spread DEC - OCT Gold on MCX settled up 0.5% at as a strengthening currency in China made the metal cheaper for buyers in the world's biggest gold consumer. Gold has tumbled 13 percent from an April high as the dollar powered higher against the yuan and other currencies, raising the cost of dollar-priced bullion outside the United States. Physical gold demand in India regained momentum this week as jewellers stocked up after prices dipped to their lowest in over seven months, with lower prices attracting fresh buying and driving premiums higher in other major Asian hubs as well. Dealers in India, the second biggest gold consumer Hedge funds and money managers increased their net short position in COMEX gold contracts for the sixth straight week to another record in the week to Aug. 14, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. Gold speculators added 13,991 contracts to their net short position, bringing it to 77,273 contracts, the largest since records became publicly available in Holdings of gold backed exchange traded funds, meanwhile, have fallen by 4.1 million ounces, or 7 percent, since late May as investors exited positions. Investors were looking ahead to Friday and a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a conference in Jackson Hole in which he might give clues about the pace of U.S. interest rate rises. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.73% to settled at 8027 while prices up 148 rupees, now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 29541, a move above could see prices testing Page 2
3 INT. GOLD$ Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Resistance Support Outlook: Gold price shows more bullish bias and moves near the EMA50, and the intraday bullish trend still suggested, waiting to test and might extend to 120 before turning back to resume the main bearish trend again. Note that breaking followed by levels will push the price to continue the main bearish trend within the bearish channel that its next target located at Gold settled up as a strengthening currency in China made the metal cheaper for buyers in the world's biggest gold consumer. Gold has tumbled 13 percent from an April high as the dollar powered higher against the yuan and other currencies, raising the cost of dollar-priced bullion outside the United States. Physical gold demand in India regained momentum this week as jewellers stocked up after prices dipped to their lowest in over seven months, with lower prices attracting fresh buying and driving premiums higher in other major Asian hubs as well. Dealers in India, the second biggest gold consumer Hedge funds and money managers increased their net short position in COMEX gold contracts for the sixth straight week to another record in the week to Aug. 14, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. Gold speculators added 13,991 contracts to their net short position, bringing it to 77,273 contracts, the largest since records became publicly available in Holdings of gold backed exchange traded funds, meanwhile, have fallen by 4.1 million ounces, or 7 percent, since late May as investors exited positions. Investors were looking ahead to Friday and a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a conference in Jackson Hole in which he might give clues about the pace of U.S. interest rate rises. Technically now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Page 3
4 Rupee look cautious, depreciates below 70-per-dollar weighed down by the Turkish lira-led emerging market currency rout. The Indian rupee closed below the 70-per-dollar mark for the first time, lastweek after data released showed that trade deficit widened to the most in five years. The USD/INR fell 0.4 percent to close at against the dollar. Key resistances are seen at and while initial supports are seen at and USDINR Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread SEP - AUG OCT - SEP Rupee gained on selling by foreign banks tracking a weak greenback amid likely overseas funds inflow from local stocks. Safe-haven dollar demand dropped tracking a global recovery in risk-appetite as US and China took steps to ease trade conflict with focus on discussion between the two largest economies due later this week. The greenback dropped against other major currencies as safe-haven demand receded on optimism over easing US-China tension with focus on discussion between the two largest economies due later this week. Chinese and US negotiators are planning talks to resolve their trade conflicts ahead of meetings in November, leading to improvement in global risk appetite following month-long row that has worn-out world markets. Sentiment picked up tracking positive cues offering hopes of resolving an escalating tariff war with China and the US holding lower-level trade talks this month. India s trade deficit widened to a more than five year high of $18.02 billion in July, the trade ministry said, driven largely by a surge in oil imports. Though merchandise exports rose percent year-on-year in July, the trade deficit widened as oil imports surged percent to $12.35 billion. In June, the trade deficit stood at $16.6 billion. Merchandise exports last month rose to $25.77 billion from a year ago, while imports rose percent to $43.79 billion, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said in a statement. Technically now USDINR is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Page 4
5 Gold Spot 995 Gold Spot 999 Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last* CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad 3030 CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad 3043 CMDTY Gold Bangalore 3025 CMDTY Gold Bangalore 3040 CMDTY Gold Chennai 3027 CMDTY Gold Chennai 3042 CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Hyderabad 3025 CMDTY Gold Hyderabad 3040 CMDTY Gold Jaipur 3028 CMDTY Gold Jaipur 3040 CMDTY Gold Kolkata 3034 CMDTY Gold Mumbai CMDTY Gold Mumbai * Rates including GST * Rates including GST Silver Spot 999 Bullion Futures on MCX Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last CMDTY Silver Ahmedabad 3770 MCX GOLD 04AUG CMDTY Silver Bangalore 3795 MCX GOLD 05OCT CMDTY Silver Chennai 3792 MCX GOLD 05DEC CMDTY Silver Delhi 3795 MCX SILVER 05JUL CMDTY Silver Hyderabad 3797 MCX SILVER 05SEP CMDTY Silver Jaipur 3794 MCX SILVER 05DEC CMDTY Silver Kolkata 3810 CMDTY Silver Mumbai * Rates including GST Bullion Futures on DGCX Gold and Silver Fix Exch. Descr. Last Exch. Descr. Last DGCX GOLD 26SEP CMDTY Gold London AM FIX DGCX GOLD 28NOV CMDTY Gold London PM FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 27SEP CMDTY Silver London FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 29NOV DGCX SILVER 29AUG Gold / Silver Ratio DGCX SILVER 28NOV Exch. Descr. Last DGCX SILVER QUANTO 30AUG INTL. SPOT GOLD SILVER RATIO DGCX SILVER QUANTO 29NOV MCX MCX GOLD SILVER RATIO Page 5
6 Report is prepared for information purposes only. Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. Mumbai. INDIA. Mobile: / info@kediacommodity.com URL: General Disclaimers: This Report is prepared and distributed by Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale through KSCRPL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportuni. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by KSCRPL to be reliable. IBJA and KSCRPL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of IBJA and KSCRPL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will be taken by KSCRPL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/ or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. KSCRPL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to KSCRPL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India. Page 6
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