CMP* (Rs) 208 Upside/ (Downside) (%) 18. Market Cap. (Rs bn) Free Float (%) 65.6 Shares O/S (mn) 630

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1 1QFY18 Result Update July 28,2017 CMP* (Rs) 208 Bloomberg Ticker CROMPTON IN Market Cap. (Rs bn) Free Float (%) 65.6 Shares O/S (mn) 630 Channel De-stocking Impairs Top-line; Recovery Ahead Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CGCEL) has reported a subdued performance in 1QFY18. Its net sales declined by 4.4% YoY to Rs10.8bn (vs. our expectation of Rs11.9bn) primarily due to channel de-stocking of ~Rs bn in May & June prior to GST roll-out, which impacted its operating margins as well. EBITDA and reported PAT declined by 17.7% YoY and 14.1% YoY to Rs1573mn and Rs803mn, respectively. However, PAT dipped by 4.0% YoY post adjustment of ESOP cost. Looking ahead, we believe the expected strong double-digit growth in light electrical industry augurs well for CGCEL. Further, post recent correction in stock price, we change our recommendation on the stock to from HOLD with an unrevised Target Price of Rs246. GST-led Inventory De-stocking Drags Revenue Consumer Electrical segment, which contributes ~75% to CGCEL s total revenue, declined by 8.6% YoY owing to inventory de-stocking of Rs bn in May and June prior to GST roll-out. Sales volume of premium fans grew by a strong 25% YoY and contributed 16% to overall fan business in 1QFY18. However, revenue from Lighting business accounting for 25% of CGEL s total top-line grew by 10.3% YoY. Within the Lighting business, LED segment continue to grow which now accounts for ~65% of its total lightning sales. However, some normalcy has restored in the markets post GST roll-out. With a view to striking a right balance between growth and margins to ensure channel de-stocking, the Company rolled back channel incentives, which was implemented during demonetisation. Lower Margin Impairs Bottom-line The Company reported decline in margins by 194bps YoY to 12.0% in 1QFY18 on account of high ESOP cost of Rs113mn and 63bps YoY decline in margin of Electrical Consumer Durable business, which was, however partially off-set by improved margins (+210bps) in lighting products business. Overall segmental EBITDA margins decreased 80bps QoQ in 1QFY18. Revenue from Lighting segment grew by 10.3% YoY with 210bps YoY expansion in margin due to higher sales of CFL and traditional bulbs both in terms of volume and value. However, despite adverse revenue mix CGCEL s cost structure remained stable owing to continued efforts on operational efficiencies. Its net profit declined by 14.1% YoY to Rs803mn in 1QFY18 owing to lower margins, however adjusted for Employee ESOP cost profits declined by 4% YoY. Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth Absolute performance (4.5) (5.8) 28.4 Relative to Nifty (9.8) (13.3) 12.5 Shareholding Pattern (%) Mar 17 Jun'17 Promoter Public Year Stock Price Performance Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Note: * CMP as on July 28, 2017 Outlook & Valuation We expect CGCEL s business to recover in next 2-3 quarters, as normalcy is steadily getting restored post GST roll-out. Thus, we maintain our earnings estimates for FY18E and FY19E. We expect CGCEL s revenue and earnings to witness 16.4% and 23.5% CAGR, respectively over FY17-19E driven by strong product portfolio of established brands, market leadership and strong distribution network. We change our recommendation on the stock to from HOLD with an unrevised Target Price of Rs246 (valuing at 35x P/E to its FY19E EPS). Key Financials (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Sales 35,869 39,759 46,071 53,899 EBITDA 4,328 4,902 5,943 7,061 Net profit 2,285 2,907 3,606 4,430 EPS Rs) P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) Source: Company, RSec Research Research Analyst: Rupesh Sankhe Contact: (022) rupesh.sankhe@relianceada.com 1

2 Risks to the View ff Increase in cheaper imports from China would dent pricing power and margins. ff Slower-than-expected recovery in consumer demand. Exhibit 1: Result Summary (Rs mn) 1QFY18 1QFY17 YoY % 4QFY17 QoQ % Net Sales 10,809 11,307 (4.4) 10, Operating Costs 9,515 9,734 (2.2) 9, EBIDTA 1,294 1,573 (17.7) 1,386 (6.6) EBIDTA Margin (%) Other Income Interest (10.2) Depreciation Profit Before Tax 1,198 1,400 (14.4) 1,252 (4.3) Tax Tax Rate (%) Reported PAT (14.1) 864 (7.1) Source: Company RSec Research Exhibit 2: Segment Revenue (Rs mn) 1QFY18 1QFY17 YoY % 4QFY17 QoQ % Segment Revenue( Net of Excise Duty) Lighting products 2,748 2, ,068 (10.4) Electrical Consumer Durables (8.6) 7, Total Net Sales 10,809 11,307 (4.4) 10, PBIT Lighting products (4.7) Electrical Consumer Durables 1,414 1,602 (11.7) 1,485 (4.7) PBIT % Lighting products Electrical Consumer Durables Source: Company RSec Research 2

3 Profit & Loss Statement Net Sales 35,869 39,759 46,071 53,899 Raw Materials 12,702 27,349 31,651 36,975 Employee Costs 1,005 2,252 2,534 2,911 Other Expenditure 2,315 5,257 5,943 6,953 Total Expenditure 31,541 34,857 40,128 46,838 EBIDTA 4,328 4,902 5,943 7,061 Other Income Depreciation EBIT 4,206 4,987 5,812 6,936 Interest Extraoridanry (105) (25) PBT 3,423 4,306 5,226 6,421 Tax 1,138 1,399 1,620 1,990 PAT 2,285 2,907 3,606 4,430 PAT Margins % EPS Balance Sheet Share Capital Equity 1,259 1,259 1,259 1,259 Reserves 1,034 4,166 6,169 9,493 Net Worth 2,293 5,425 7,428 10,752 Secured Loans 5,172 6,500 5,800 5,100 Unsecured Loans Total Debt 5,318 6,676 5,976 5,276 Total 7,611 12,101 13,404 16,028 Net Block 8,581 8,640 10,000 11,065 Investments 3,185 3,185 3,185 Current Assets 7,949 9,351 9,790 10,443 Inventory 2,100 2,348 2,498 2,648 Sundry Debtors 4,165 5,434 5,554 5,729 Cash ,096 Loans & Advances, Prepaid Exp Current Liabilities & Provisions 6,921 7,781 7,575 6,671 Creditors 6,641 7,145 7,295 6,391 Provisions Others 2,004 1,302 2,004 2,004 Net current Assets 1,028 1,570 2,215 3,772 Total 7,611 12,101 13,404 16,028 3

4 Cash Flow Statement Net Income/(loss) before Tax & EO items 3,423 4,306 5,226 6,421 Depreciation and Amortization Interest Expense Operating profit before WC Changes 4,227 5,072 5,952 7,071 Net Change in Working Capital 24,819 (743) (517) (1,289) Cash generated from Operationing Activi. 29,046 4,329 5,435 5,781 Taxes paid (1,138) (1,399) (1,620) (1,990) CF before Extra - Ordinary items 27,908 2,930 3,815 3,791 Net CF From Operating Activities 27,908 2,930 3,815 3,791 Purchase of Fixed Assets 49,475 (170) (1,500) (1,200) Purchase of Investment 4,414 (3,185) - - Adj. on acquisition of subsidiary/associ. 9, Net CF From Investing Activities 63,356 (3,106) (1,500) (1,200) Increase/(Decrease) of borrowing (20,469) 1,358 (700) (700) Dividend Paid - (727) (901) (1,108) Interest paid (678) (655) (586) (515) Net CF From Financing Activities (21,147) (25) (2,187) (2,323) Increase/(Decrease) in cash 70,117 (200) Cash at the beginning of the year 1, Cash at the end of the year ,096 Key Ratios Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E EBITDA margin (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV / sales (x) EV / EBITDA (x) P/E (x) P / BV (x)

5 Rating Guides Rating Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months >10% HOLD -5% to 10% REDUCE >-5% Reliance Securities Limited (RSL), the broking arm of Reliance Capital is one of the India s leading retail broking houses. Reliance Capital is amongst India s leading and most valuable financial services companies in the private sector. Reliance Capital has interests in asset management and mutual funds, life and general insurance, commercial finance, equities and commodities broking, wealth management services, distribution of financial products, private equity, asset reconstruction, proprietary investments and other activities in financial services. The list of associates of RSL is available on the website RSL is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 General Disclaimers: This Research Report (hereinafter called Report ) is prepared and distributed by RSL for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale of any security, derivatives or any other security through RSL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportunity on behalf of the issuer(s) of the respective security(ies) referred to herein. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by RSL to be reliable. 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