Market Outlook. FOR PRIVATE CIRCULATION ONLY 16 August 2013

Transcription

1 FOR PRIVATE CIRCULATION ONLY 16 August 2013 Market Outlook Jeera NCDEX Jeera futures may note some losses during the session. Slow domestic demand coupled with sufficient supply in the market may keep the prices under pressure. Meanwhile major downside is expected to remain capped on steady export demand. For NCDEX September contract is the support level with resistance of Rs Turmeric Underlying trend for turmeric is expected to remain weak. Subdued domestic demand coupled with ample of stocks with the traders could weigh on prices. However profit booking cannot be ruled out as prices have declined sharply recent days. NCDEX September contract is getting support near Rs with resistance of Rs Futures Price Movement Rs./Quintal 14-Aug-13 Contract High Low Close % Vol (MT) OI OI Jeera Aug % Sep % Turmeric Aug % Sep % Dhaniya Aug % Sep % Chilli Aug % Sep % Cardamom Aug % Sep % Note: Volume in Metric Tons, OI = Open Interest, Cardamom prices in Rs./kg Source: NCDEX & MCX Dhaniya Dhaniya futures may trade with downward bias during the session. Lack of fresh buying interest at the spot market could keep a check on upside. Meanwhile sellers have to note caution as heavy rainfall has limited arrivals at the spot markets. NCDEX September contract is getting support at Rs while resistance is seen near Rs Chilli Red chilli futures are expected to trade sideways amid downward bias. Subdued domestic and export demand coupled with sufficient supplies with the traders may weigh on prices. We expect NCDEX September contract to seek support near Rs while resistance is seen near Rs Cardamom We continue to maintain weak outlook for cardamom futures. Good crop prospects for the season coupled with rising arrivals at the spot markets will weigh on the prices. Traders say the recent heavy rains have improved the yield of second picking crop albeit some damage reports of crops for 1 st round of picking. September contract at MCX is expected to seek support near Rs /kg while resistance is seen near Rs /kg. Commodity-Mandi Spot Rs./Qtl Change Pepper-Kochi Jeera-Unjha Turmeric-Nizamabad Coriander-Kota Chilli-Guntur Stocks in NCDEX Warehouse (Metric Tons) as on 13 August Commodity Demat In Process Pepper 4 0 Jeera Turmeric Dhaniya Chilli Source:NCDEX Commodity Contract Outlook Support Resistance Jeera September Weak Turmeric September Weak Dhaniya September Weak Chilli September Weak Cardamom September Weak

2 Jeera Jeera futures traded sideways amid downward bias on Wednesday. The benchmark September contract closed slightly down by 0.17% and witnessed accumulation of short positions. Cumin seed at the benchmark Unjha market traded steady on Wednesday. Nearly bags were traded for the arrival of bags. Active export buying was seen mainly from European traders. These traders bought nearly bags. Meanwhile domestic buyers were also active. Cumin rough new was quoted at Rs.2,150-2,250/20kgs, NCDEX quality priced at Rs.2,425-2,525/20kg. For Singapore, one per cent Indian cumin seed was offered at $2,325/tonne FOB, Mumbai. Cumin one percent for Europe was offered at $2,500/tonne on C&F basis. Turmeric Turmeric futures traded sideways amid downward bias. The benchmark September contract witnessed accumulation of short positions and closed 1.22% lower as compared to previous session. Turmeric at the key trading centers of Nizamabad, Sangli and Erode traded steady. Meanwhile traders say buying interest is seen emerging from the north Indian traders. New unpolished finger variety was offered at Rs.5,300/qtl and gatta was at Rs.5,000/qtl in Nizamabad. Nearly 1650 bags were traded. At Sangli, New rajapuri powder quality was available at Rs.5,800-6,200/qtl, rajapuri powder medium quality at Rs.6,500 and desi kaddapa at Rs.5,500-5,700/qtl. Arrivals of about 1,600 bags were reported in Sangli. Turmeric finger was priced at Rs.5,800/qtl in Erode,. Arrivals were slightly lower at 5500 bags. As per government of Andhra Pradesh turmeric has been sown in 0.45 lakh hectares as on 14 th August 2013 as compared to 0.46 lakh hectare during corresponding period last year. However the acreage is lower as compared to season s normal of 0.57 lakh ha. Dhaniya Dhaniya futures failed to sustain gains and closed in negative territory. The benchmark September contract witnessed accumulation of short positions and closed 0.8% lower as compared to previous close. Coriander markets in Rajasthan re-opened. However activity continued to remain subdued amid lack of buying interest. Prices remained steady at the key trading centers. Coriander Badami loose new quoted at Rs. 4,800/qtl, eagle at Rs. 5,200/qtl and scooter variety quoted at Rs. 6,000/qtl in Ramganj. Coriander arrival was 1,500 bags in Kota, 3,000 bags in Ramganj, 500 bags in Baran. (Each bag=40 kg). Cardamom Cardamom futures witnessed selling pressure for third session in a row. The benchmark September contract witnessed liquidation of long positions and closed 2.34% lower. At Kumily market, Cardamom Loose (Max. Price) closed firm at Rs. 958 per kg, up by 3.57% from previous day's price level. Traders reported arrivals at kgs, down by 3211 kgs as compared to previous day. Loose (Avg. Price) at market finished lower at Rs per kg, lower by 4.52% as compared to previous day. Chilli Red chilli futures traded in a narrow range. The benchmark September contract witnessed liquidation of long positions and closed 0.45% lower as compared to previous close. Red chilli at the benchmark Guntur market continued to trade steady. Arrivals stood at bags. At Guntur red chilli 334 quality at Rs /qtl, 273 quality at Rs /qtl. The demand from the domestic consuming centers is average, said a local trader. He added, the inquiries from the export front too are very thin, which has kept prices unchanged since last couple of weeks. Red Chilli sowing in Andhra Pradesh total area covered 0.24 lakh ha during the current year till date as compared to 0.37 lakh ha during last year corresponding period. Meanwhile, the stock of red chilli is expected to be around 45 lakh bags in Guntur. Chilli sowing has increased by more than 25% in Nimar region of Madhya Pradesh. But, the incessant rainfall has damaged 25 percent of crop. Hence, the production may be around last year s level of lakh bags of 40 kgs each. Fresh crop from Nimar is likely to start entering the market in October.

3 Turmeric- Forward Curve Turmeric: Turmeric forward curve continued to shift towards the right and turned flatter. The basis has also corrected. August and September spread widened to -66 from -50. During the coming days the spread is expected to expand further from current levels Spot Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Spot Aug Sep Jeera Forward Curve Jeera: Jeera forward curve has shifted towards right on selling pressure and has turned flatter as compared to Saturday s session. The basis narrowed yesterday to 267 from 358 and remains strong. The change in terms of slope has eased the spread to -68 from -125 for the August and September contract Spot Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Spot Aug Sep

4 Dhaniya Forward Curve Dhaniya: Dhaniya forward curve shifted towards the right and remained flat. The slope of the curve remains steady. The basis has narrowed to 102 from 150 during last week spot Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Spot Aug Sep

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