HIGHLIGHTS. December Soymeal closed down 7.5 at This was 0.9 up from the low and 9.9 off the high.

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1 FOR PRIVATE CIRCULATION ONLY September 11, 2012 HIGHLIGHTS November Soybeans finished down 17 3/4 at /4, 25 1/2 off the high and 2 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 17 1/2 at /4. This was 1 1/2 up from the low and 24 3/4 off the high. December Soymeal closed down 7.5 at This was 0.9 up from the low and 9.9 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.1 at 56.56, 0.5 off the high and 0.34 up from the low. On NCDEX October soybeans closed down by 1.31% and November contract declined by 0.79%. October contract witnessed short accumulation. Rain/thundershowers would occur at a few places over Uttarakhand, Punjab, east Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra. Domestic soy complex traded lower tracking weak international market. Malaysian crude palm oil futures inched lower on expectations of rising inventory levels, although losses were limited by a jump in exports that could help ease pressure, eating into high stock levels that have risen above 2 million tonnes. Indian soy bean sowing for Kharif 2012 has been started with a lag of over 10 days at the key producing states. Slow progress of south west monsoon has caused the delay. As on 31 st August all India soy bean acreage is at 107 lakh hectares as compared to 103 lakh ha in 2011 and 92 lakh ha in normal season. *Board Crush Spread is an inter commodity spread transaction in which soybean futures are bought (or sold) and soybean meal and oil futures are sold (or bought). This value is traded based on expectations of future price movement of soybeans versus the components. FUTURES PRICE MOVEMENT 10-Sep-12 EDIBLE OIL COMPLEX Contract Open High Low Close % Chg Vol (MT) OI OI SOY BEANS Rs./Qtl NCDEX Oct % Nov % Oct % Nov % REFINED SOY OIL Rs./10kg NCDEX Sep % Oct % Sep % Oct % SOY MEAL Rs./Qtl Oct % Nov % BOARD CRUSH * Oct % Nov % MUSTARD SEED Rs./Qtl NCDEX Sep % Oct % CRUDE PALM OIL Rs./10kg MCX Sep % Oct % Note : MCX & OI in Lots INTERNATIONAL Contract Open High Low Close Change % chg CBOT SOY BEAN US Cents / Bushel Sep % Nov % CBOT SOY MEAL US $/short ton Sep % Oct % CBOT SOY BEAN OIL US Cents/Pound Sep % Oct % WCE CANOLA Canadian $/ton Nov % Jan % BURSA MALAYSIA PALM MYR/ton Nov

2 OUTLOOK Soybean Soy beans across the domestic markets are expected to trade weak tracking cues from international market. US markets are trading lower by 0.17% in early trades and closed lower by 1.02% in yesterday s session. Downwards movement in Indian markets is expected for the session. In India weather is expected to be better compared to last week. However Indian rupee is weak in the early trades. For the session we could see prices trading weak. Refined Soybean Oil Indian refined soy bean oil prices are expected to trade weak tracking international market. The undertone is expected to remain weak as international market trades lower. Malaysian palm oil market is trading higher by 0.34% in early trades and closed lower by 1.57% in yesterday s trading session. CBOT oil is trading higher by 0.04% in early trades. Indian rupee is seen weak during early trades. For the session we could see prices trading with a downward bias. Crude Palm Oil Crude palm oil prices across the domestic exchanges are expected to trade weak today. Malaysian palm is trading 0.34% higher and Indian CPO will take cues from Malaysian market. CBOT Soy oil is trading higher by 0.04% which can keep the sentiments supportive. Improved weather can keep the prices under pressure. Rapeseed Mustard seed futures are expected to trade weak as prices are not able sustain at higher levels. Rapeseed prices are at a discount compared to Soybean which can cap major downside. Buying at lower level is expected as price hover near crucial support level. Higher arrivals may keep the price weak in the spot market. The undertone remains firm on global oil seed supply concerns. Prices are expected to trade weak in today s session. MARKET ANALYSIS Centre Spot Change SOY BEANS Rs./Qtl Indore Kota Nagpur REFINED SOY OIL Rs./10kg Indore Mumbai Nagpur SOY MEAL Rs./ton Indore MUSTARD SEED Rs./Qtl Alwar Jaipur Sri Ganganagar Source: NCDEX & Oil (Crude) C&F Rate- Imp Base Landed Mumbai Tariff Price Soyoil $/ ton Rs./ 10 kg Palm Oil $/ ton Rs./ 10 kg Source: SEA, KCSL Note: Domestic price: Soy oil Ex Indore Palm Oil Ex Kandla WARE HOUSE STOCKS in MT ( As on 08 September 2012) Centers NCDEX Demat In Process Demat In Process SOY BEAN TOTAL MUSTARD SEED TOTAL CRUSH MARGIN & OIL-MEAL SHARE Rape/Mustard Complex Gross Crush (Rs.) 2400 Oil share 77.03% Meal share 22.97% Soybean Complex Gross Crush (Rs.) Oil share 28.3% Meal share 71.7% Source: SEA, KCSL Currency Type Close %Chg USD/INR Spot Domestic Price COMMODITY CONTRACT SUPPORT RESISTANCE INTRADAY TREND SOY BEAN October Bearish RSO October Bearish SOY MEAL October Bearish MUSTARD SEED October Bearish CPO September Bearish 540

3 MARKET ANALYSIS SOY COMPLEX Global: November Soybeans finished down 17 3/4 at /4, 25 1/2 off the high and 2 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 17 1/2 at /4. This was 1 1/2 up from the low and 24 3/4 off the high. December Soymeal closed down 7.5 at This was 0.9 up from the low and 9.9 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.1 at 56.56, 0.5 off the high and 0.34 up from the low. November soybeans traded sharply lower on the day and losses were extended to Soybean oil and soybean meal. Soybean futures saw a boost in early trade on a better than expected export forecast for Malaysian Palm Oil. However, gains were limited after the Malaysian Palm Oil Board estimated a 5.8% increase in August palm oil stocks from the month prior. Chinese August soy imports were reported at 4.42 million tonnes vs in July, which is a 6 month low. While the sharp decline in imports is considered slightly bearish, a pullback was likely expected at some point after reaching a 25 month high in July. Thoughts that the market is expecting a soybean yield near 35.7 bushels per acre and production near 2.66 billion bushels on this week's USDA report which is down about 35 million bushels from last month is supportive to price action. Inspections offered limited direction to prices today as traders reposition ahead of Wednesday's crop report. Domestic: Soybean traded marginally lower in major spot markets of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra Monday despite persistent weakness in futures market. Soy bean traded at Rs 3,800-4,500 per 100 kg in the major markets of Madhya Pradesh and at Rs 4,000-4,625 per 100 kg in Maharashtra. Arrival stood at 25,000 bags in MP and 10,000 bags in Maharashtra and 10,000 bags in Rajasthan. Refined soy oil traded down in spot markets Monday as sharp losses in futures market during last week continued to weigh on market sentiment. Although domestic and overseas edible oil futures staged some recovery today on neutral crop data from Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Refined soy oil in benchmark Indore market quoted down Rs 7 at Rs 763 per 10 kg and in Mumbai it quoted lower Rs 5 at Rs 765 per 10 kg. Crude soy oil in Indore market traded down Rs 7 at Rs 738 per 10 kg, while in Mumbai it was flat at Rs 730 per 10 kg. India's oil meal exports in August more than halved to 120,091 metric tons from 291,466 tons a year earlier, mainly due to declining purchases by top buyers such as Iran and Japan on higher Indian prices. Oil meal imports by Iran plunged to 4,218 tons in August compared with 32,000 tons during the same period last year. Higher prices of soybean seeds in the local market also made Indian exports unviable, resulting in a sharp fall in exports. Total oil meal exports during the April-August period declined to 1.46 million tons from 1.69 million tons a year earlier. Ware house stocks: Soy bean ware house stocks at NCDEX gained and has been nil. Yesterday the spread between the spot and October contract was at 677 against 585 in previous session. CRUDE PALM OIL Global: Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended higher Monday, underpinned by firm export demand in the first 10 days of September. The benchmark November contract at Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 0.3% higher at 2,937 ringgit a metric ton after moving in a MYR2,897-MYR2,947 range. The market moved into positive territory, as the surge in exports could help reduce Malaysian stockpiles that have risen to 2.12 million tons. Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said Malaysia's August CPO output fell 1.7% from July to 1.66 million tons, while stocks rose 5.8% from end-july to 2.12 million tons, the highest since last October. Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services put Sept exports at 453,302 tons, an increase of 27% on month, while another surveyor, SGS, put exports at 460,939 tons, up 30%. Domestic: MCX Crude palm oil prices traded lower tracking cues from international and domestic markets. The benchmark MCX September closed higher by 0.78% at 542/10kg and witnessed liquidation of short positions. MUSTARD SEED: Mustard seed prices across the exchanges traded marginally lower as traders booked profit. Liquidation across the contract was witnessed. The benchmark September contract gained by 0.34% and the fall in close price and in open interest suggests long liquidation. The spot market witnessed arrival of bags in yesterday mandi s auction against bags in previous session.

4 1 Ware house stocks: Mustard seed ware house stocks at NCDEX and gained yesterday. As on 8 th September stocks gained to tons and 310 at NCDEX and from and 310 on 5 th September. The basis widened to 180 from 81 in the spot market as futures corrected. No FED stock in August and September contract. FUTURES MARKET ANALYSIS SOY BEAN FORWARD CURVE Monday Saturday Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 OCTOBER NOVEMBER SPREAD % 2009% 2012% The Oct and Nov spread is new crop spread. This spread is following the year 2009 and 2008 pattern. The average spread during 2008 was at 5.5% when the spread was at its peak. This year as well we expect the spread to move in similar fashion. The recent update on weather has corrected the spread and our expectation of widening spread is coming nearby. Now we expect the spread to correct till 3%. Yesterday the spread widened and closed near 1% or 40. REFINED SOY OIL Spread 19-Oct 20-Nov 20-Dec 18-Jan Spot Oct Nov Dec Jan FORWARD CURVE Monday Saturday OCTOBER-NOVEMBER SPREAD average Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov /08/ /08/ /08/ /09/ /09/ /09/ /10/2011

5 The forward curve witnessed a positional shift towards the right on profit booking. Yesterday we saw the slope of the forward curve turning steep as compared to previous day. The spread between October and September has gained to 10. The October November spread has declined to from We expect the spread to trade in the range of 15to 25. Spread 20-Sep 19-Oct 20-Nov Spot Sep Oct FUTURES MARKET ANALYSIS (Continued.) MUSTARD SEED FORWARD CURVE OCTOBER - NOVEMBER SPREAD Monday Saturday Average Jul 17-Jul 24-Jul 31-Jul 7-Aug 14-Aug 21-Aug 28-Aug 4-Sep 11-Sep 18-Sep 25-Sep 2-Oct 9-Oct 16-Oct Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec The forward curve yesterday witnessed positional shift towards the right on profit booking. The curve has turned steeper and the change in terms of slope in forward curve has widened the spread slightly. The spread between October and November is stable at -45. Spread 20-Sep 19-Oct 20-Nov 20-Dec Spot Sep Oct Nov -16

6 WEATHER UPDATE: Source: IMD Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in more than 80% of India s crop country during the weekend. The driest areas were in the lower Ganges River Basin and far Eastern States (including Bangladesh) and from western Madhya Pradesh southward through eastern Maharashtra to Andhra Pradesh, eastern Karnataka and western Tamil Nadu. Rain was greatest in central Rajasthan, Uttaranchal, Gujarat and from eastern Madhya Pradesh to Orissa and northeastern Andhra Pradesh where 1.00 to 3.12 inches resulted. Most of the weekend rain varied from 0.15 to 0.75 inch. Highest temperatures during the weekend occurred in far eastern portions of India where it was mostly dry. Extreme highs reached up near 100 degrees in those locations, as well as in eastern Tamil Nadu. Most other highs were in the 80s and lower 90s. Lowest morning temperatures Saturday and Sunday were in the upper 60s and 70s. Rain will continue to scatter across much of India during the next week. The interior south from southern Maharashtra to Tamil Nadu may be driest while the greatest and most persistent rain occurs in central and interior eastern parts of the nation. Most of the precipitation will variable in intensity with daily amounts to 0.75 inch occurring most often, but local totals of 1.00 to 2.50 inches will be possible as well. Some the greatest rainfall in Gujarat, western Rajasthan, western Madhya Pradesh and northwestern Maharashtra will occur early this week when 1.00 to 3.00 inches and local totals to 4.00 inches may occur. Next week s weather will trend drier for northwestern India and Pakistan where seasonal drying should begin to settle in. Westcentral and southwestern areas will also trend just a little drier. Monsoonal precipitation will continue in most other areas with rainfall distributed similar to that of this week. Most of the rain next week will be in central and eastern parts of the nation. Temperatures will not change greatly over the next two weeks. Source: World weather

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