ALPHA - RESEARCH GOLD. Page 1. Daily Commodity Market Outlook views & Report as of Monday, April 08, 2013 TRADING IDEA: NAME RATE % CHANGE NAME RATE

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1 Daily Commodity Market Outlook views & Report as of Monday, April 08, 2013 INTERNATIONAL UPDATE GLOBAL UPDATE NAME RATE % CHANGE NAME RATE % CHANGE EURO SENSEX $ INDEX NIFTY GOLD$ NASDAQ SILVER $ S&P CRUDE$ FTSE YEN DOW JO GBP STRAITS # Gold trading range for the day is # Gold rallied as disappointing U.S. job data fuelled expectations the Federal Reserve will continue its bullion-friendly bond purchases # Heavy gold short-covering and sharp losses in U.S. equities also lifted bullion prices. # SPDR gold trust holdings dropped by 0.91 tonnes to tonnes. # Gold is trading below 50DMA, which is at 30265, now intraday gold is holding support at and resistance at # BUY GOLD SL TGT MCX Please See the Disclaimer on the Last GOLD Gold recovered last week from to settled at on low level buying and short-covering to its biggest one-day gain since November, as disappointing U.S. job data fuelled expectations the Federal Reserve will continue its bullion-friendly bond purchases. The metal snapped three consecutive days of sharp losses after the Labor Department said U.S. employers in March hired at the slowest pace in nine months, adding just 88,000 non-farm jobs. Heavy gold shortcovering and sharp losses in U.S. equities also lifted bullion prices. The weak jobs data reduced the chance the Fed would alter its current $85 billion monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries known as qualitative easing in a bid to boost economic growth. Gold is used by many as a hedge against inflation, which can be brought on by central banks' monetary stimulus. The precious metal still lost over 1 percent for the week for one of its sharpest weekly declines since the start of the year. Heavy outflows from gold exchange-traded funds and sharp losses of prominent bullion bull John Paulson's gold fund also weighed on investor sentiment. Investor interest continued to recede on Thursday, with bullion holdings in major gold exchange traded funds dropping to their lowest since August Also billionaire investor John Paulson told clients on Thursday that most of his portfolios were in the black. His gold fund, however, notched double digit losses during the first three months of Now technically market is getting support at and below could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 29806, a move above could see prices testing

2 Silver regained and settled at after U.S. jobs numbers fell far short of expectations, putting to rest recent sentiments that the Federal Reserve may consider tightening policy in the coming months. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier the economy added 88,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, way below expectations for a gain of 200,000 and below the 268,000 jobs added in February. The private sector added 95,000 jobs last month, after an increase of 254,000 in February, missing expectations for a 209,000 rise. The report also showed that the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% in March, from 7.7% the previous month, as more Americans left the labor force. Market were expecting the headline unemployment rate to remain unchanged last month. The weak jobs data reduced the chance the Fed would alter its current $85 billion monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries known as QE in a bid to boost economic growth. The news sent the dollar falling and bullion rising on expectations for the Fed to keep monetary stimulus programs in place, including its USD85 billion monthly bond-buying program that weakens the greenback as a side effect. Market participants will also be watching data on industrial production from Germany and the euro zone amid concerns over the deteriorating economic outlook for the region. Now technically market is in oversold as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 28.73, and getting support at and below could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at Silver trading range for the day is Silver gains after U.S. jobs numbers fell far short of expectations, putting to rest recent sentiments that Fed Reserve may consider tighte Accommodative monetary policies favour prices as low interest rates encourage investors to put money into the non-interest-bearing ass Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by tonnes to tonnes. Silver is trading below 50DMA, which is at 55184, with intraday support seen at and resistance at BUY SILVER SL TGT MCX # Crude trading range for the day is # Crude prices fell heavily from near to 5392 highs as pressure was hammered from slowdown in the US economy # Data from US has disappointed all week with weaker-than-expected growth in manufacturing, private sector hiring and employment # Abdallah Al-Badri, Secretary General of OPEC, said oil prices were at a comfortable level for both producers and consumers. # Crude is holding with a support at 5037 and resistance will be likely at # SELL CRUDE OIL 5130 SL 5165 TGT MCX Please See the Disclaimer on the Last SILVER CRUDE Crude prices fell heavily from near to 5392 highs to settled at 5107 as pressure was hammered from slowdown in the US economy but the lower than expected pay-roll data put a strong selling pressure in liquidation on Friday. Traders have long been taking cues from the monthly jobs report, the most-closely followed indicator of U.S. employment, because it offers insight into the economic health of the world's biggest crude oil consumer. A deteriorating economy is generally correlated with decreased demand for oil and fuel products like gasoline. Crude Oil prices came under heavy selling pressure after the U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 88,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since last June and far below forecasts for an increase of 200,000. The data also showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% from 7.7% in February, but the decline stemmed from more people dropping out of the labor force. The labor participation rate fell to 63.3%, the lowest level since But losses were limited as the dismal jobs report eased recent jitters the Federal Reserve would start to withdraw its super easy monetary policy, weighing on the U.S. dollar. Oil prices were lower earlier in the week due to a number of disappointing economic reports from the euro zone and the U.S, while a surge in U.S. crude inventories to the highest level since 1990 further weighed. Now technically market is getting support at 5071 and below could see a test of 5037 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5167, a move above could see prices testing

3 # Copper trading range for the day is # Copper dropped after far weaker than expected U.S. jobs data spooked investors about the state of the world's largest economy. # Prices are down around 6 percent so far this year as inventories have steadily climbed while demand in China has been disappointing. # A two-day holiday in top copper consumer China has also dampened demand for the metal. # Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at mt that is up by 425mt. # BUY COPPER 404 SL TGT MCX # Zinc trading range for the day is # Zinc yesterday traded with the positive node gaining back some losses during the Qingming holiday in China due to strengthening euro. # US ADP March employment data fell short of forecasts, triggering market concerns towards US non-farm data # Japan began to implement QE without announcing a deadline, while ECB President expressed his pessimism towards economy, # Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at mt that is down by -2225mt. # BUY ZINC SL TGT MCX Please See the Disclaimer on the Last COPPER Copper settled -0.17% down at set for a third weekly drop, swung between gains and declines as investors weighed limited exports from leading global producer Chile against signs economies are struggling to maintain growth. A port strike begun March 16 is curbing Chilean copper exports by 60 percent, Mining Minister Hernan de Solminihac said. Friday's data showed American employers hired at the slowest pace in nine months in March, a sign that Washington's austerity drive could be stealing momentum from the economy. Concerns had already been growing about the outlook for the U.S. economic recovery after weaker-than-expected data earlier this week on manufacturing activity and private sector hiring. Prices are down around 6 percent so far this year as inventories have steadily climbed while demand in China has been disappointing. A sell-off that began in mid-february has continued into early April, with the majority of the complex now trading at multi-month lows. Meanwhile Chinese demand has been recovering, but traders are reluctant to take positions, at least until Monday when Chinese markets reopen. Market participants will also be watching data on industrial production from Germany and the euro zone amid concerns over the deteriorating economic outlook for the region. Sentiment on the euro remained fragile amid ongoing concerns over the situation in Cyprus and ongoing political uncertainty in Italy. For today's session market is looking to take support at 404.4, a break below could see a test of and where as resistance is now likely ZINC Zinc yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.19% up at gained back some losses during the Qingming holiday in China due to a strengthening euro. US ADP March employment data fell short of forecasts, triggering market concerns towards US non-farm data, and weighing down LME zinc prices to test USD 1,850/mt. Later in the week, Japan began to implement QE without announcing a deadline, while European central bank President Mario Draghi expressed his pessimism towards economy, and said they will maintain easing monetary policy in a long term. The sluggish US employment data helped ease concerns that US will quit monetary easing policies in advance. As a result, investor risk appetite increased, and pulled up the euro, prompting profits hunters to enter the market and driving zinc prices to gain back some previous losses. But the number of US non-farm employment data recorded 88,000, much lower than the 190,000 expected, and this weighed down zinc prices again. In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting Wednesday s minutes of the Fed s March policy meeting for further hints on the future of its monetary policy. In yesterday's trading session zinc has touched the low of after opening at , and finally settled at For today's session market is looking to take support at 101.6, a break below could see a test of and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 105, a move above could see prices testing

4 # Nickel trading range for the day is # Nickel yesterday settled -0.19% down as prices continue to look weak as LME inventory stocks remain at record-high levels. # Bank of Japan pushed radical monetary policies last Thursday, lifting the market briefly. # The number of US March employment data increased by 88,000, lowest since June 2012, and fell short of half 200,000 expected # Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at mt that is up by 342mt. # SELL NICKEL 885 SL 895 TGT MCX NICKEL Nickel yesterday settled -0.19% down at prices continue to look weak as LME inventory stocks remain at record-high levels. Bank of Japan pushed radical monetary policies last Thursday, lifting the market briefly. But market concerns dominated the market again, pulling down nickel prices to lose previous gains. The number of US March employment data increased by 88,000, the lowest since June 2012, and fell short of half the 200,000 expected. But US March unemployment rate slid from 7.7% in February, to 7.6%, the lowest since December Given negative market situations, nickel prices hit a record low. US employment data was a focus of markets during the Qingming holiday in China. US Market employment increased by 158,000, much lower than the forecast of 197,000, and the number of non-farm employment only increased by 88,000, falling short of the 190,000 expected, and hitting a 9-month low. US unemployment rate fell from 7.7%, to 7.6%, but that is due mainly to decreasing employment rate, showing more people stopped looking for jobs. But Bank of Japan announced massive easing policies including expanding government bonds purchasing, prolonging deadlines for Japanese government bonds, increasing risk assets purchasing and advancing open assets purchase plan, and this caused JPY against the US dollar to plunge by 3.52% during the week. In yesterday's trading session nickel has touched the low of after opening at 872, and finally settled at For today's session market is looking to take support at TURMERIC , Turmeric yesterday we have seen that market has moved 2.26% as estimates of lower output and export demand supported sentiment, but selling pressure from old stocks and supplies from the new season crop restricted the upside. Turmeric output is estimated to be lower this year because of reduced plantation area in leading cultivating states. As per market sources, the total production of turmeric has been revised lower to 45 lakh bags for the current year from the previous estimates of 55 lakh bags. Moreover, total carryover stocks of the last year were also reported lower at 35 lakh bags at major mandies. Turmeric arrivals in the Nizamabad mandi increased to 12,000 bags from 8,000 bags over previous close. The crop size in Tamilnadu is also expected to be lower and the arrivals are quite thin compared to the last year. Moreover, dearth of selling by cultivators and strong offtake by investors also propelled strong gains in turmeric market. As per market sources, turmeric production in is expected around 50-60% lower compared to last year's historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs). This is mainly due to fragile sowing in major producing states such as Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. Turmeric traders are eyeing some buoyancy in spot market in coming days. The crop size in Tamilnadu is expected to be lower and the arrivals are quite thin compared to the last year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at rupees dropped by rupees. Market has opened at 6588 & made a low of 6570 versus the day high of Turmeric trading range for the day is Turmeric rose as estimates of lower output and export demand supported, but supplies from the new season crop restricted the upside. Turmeric arrivals in the Nizamabad mandi increased to 12,000 bags from 8,000 bags over previous close. NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 39 tonnes to 367 tonnes. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at rupees dropped by rupees. BUY TURMERIC MAY ABV 6725 SL 6675 TGT NCDEX Please See the Disclaimer on the Last 4

5 # Pepper trading range for the day is # Pepper fell due to sluggish exports, with Indian prices remaining higher compared with those of the competitors in the global market # Supplies are improving but are still below expectations because farmers are waiting for better prices India pepper prices are very high. # Local industry is importing from other countries which are offering at less prices, to survive in the market. # Spot pepper dropped rupees to rupees per 100 kg in Kochi market. # SELL PEPPER SL TGT NCDEX , # Chana trading range for the day is # Chana edged up on concerns of lower yield in Madhya Pradesh, the largest producing state, and hopes of a pick-up in domestic buying. # Unfavourable weather in Madhya Pradesh could hit the yield of the chana crop. # NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks gained by 2332 tonnes to 5541 tonnes. # In Delhi spot market, chana jump up by 75.3 rupee to end at rupee per 100 kgs. # BUY CHANA 3560 SL 3530 TGT NCDEX Please See the Disclaimer on the Last PEPPER Pepper fell due to sluggish exports, with Indian prices remaining higher compared with those of the competitors in the global market, and on concerns over a rise in imports. Supplies are improving but are still below expectations because farmers are waiting for better prices India pepper prices are very high. Local industry is importing from other countries which are offering at less prices, to survive in the market. Pepper output is likely to be higher this season as good yield is expected from the top-producing states of Kerala and Karnataka. Supplies from Karnataka have picked up, but are still below the expected levels because of labour shortage. According to the latest updates from India Pepper and Spice Trade Association (IPSTA), Kochi, Pepper arrivals increased to 350 quintals from 230 quintals and offtakes increased to 330 quintals from 250 quintals. However, reports of pepper harvest in Kerala and fall in the international demand are expected to cause further fall in the near term. India's export is estimated at tons for Exports from Vietnam are expected at 120,000 tons, according to the Vietnam Pepper Association. Better crop expectations and stocks in Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam have prevented pepper prices from moving higher. Spot pepper dropped rupees to rupees per 100 kg in Kochi market. The contract touched the intra day high of Rs 35890/quintal while low of Rs 35600/quintal. Now support for the pepper is seen at and below could see a test of is now likely to be seen at 35873, a CHANA Chana gained Rs 54 and settled at Rs 3574 per quintal on concerns of lower yield in Madhya Pradesh, the largest producing state, and hopes of a pick-up in domestic buying, though arrivals from the new season crop weighed on the sentiment. Unfavourable weather in Madhya Pradesh could hit the yield of the chana crop. Supplies from the new season crop have gained momentum from Madhya Pradesh, the largest producing state, while arrivals from Rajasthan and Maharashtra would pick up in the coming days. India has further extended a ban on export of pulses by a year to March 2014 to bolster supplies at home and keep a lid on local prices, a government statement said. The Lawrence Road mandi in Delhi has witnessed arrivals of 40 trucks. This has bought the inflow in the steady range. Traders are waiting for the supplies to increase further in coming weeks. The arrivals were averaging around trucks last week. Spot prices in ready market had slipped to around Rs 3300 per quintal- their one-year lows in last week but are up by around Rs 100 in the current week. Traders have reported fragile buying interest in local mandies with the anticipation of strong chana supplies from Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh from April onwards. Traders are expecting the total chana production in the range of lakh tonnes in the current year, up almost 7-9 lakh tonnes from the last year. In Delhi spot market, chana jump up by 75.3 rupee to end at rupee per 100 kgs. The volume was noted at lots. for chana is at 3539 below that could 5

6 , # Jeera trading range for the day is # Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices on stockists' demand and a pick-up in exports. # Daily supplies from the new season crop rose to 35,000-40,000 bags of 60 kg each from 22,000-25,000 bags. # NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 84 tonnes to 2404 tonnes. # In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera gained rupees to end at rupees per 100 kg. # SELL JEERA SL TGT NCDEX , # Soybean trading range for the day is JEERA Jeera May contract dropped Rs 92.5 and settled at Rs per quintal on profit booking after prices on stockists' demand and a pick-up in exports. Stockists are very active in the market hoping prices would rise further by 200 rupees-300 rupees from the current levels. Daily supplies from the new season crop rose to 35,000-40,000 bags of 60 kg each from 22,000-25,000 bags in the second week of March at the Unjha market in Gujarat. India exported about 524,690 tonnes of spices during April-December, estimates by the ministry of commerce showed, indicating exports in the financial year ending March 31 were likely much higher than the previous year. Better crop expectations and high arrivals in the market may turn the trend in near term. Good sowing reports from Gujarat and Rajasthan keeps the production prospects good. The trend in medium to long term trend looks bullish as exports are expected to pick up in coming months amidst lower production reports in Turkey and Syria. Indian production is expected at lakh bags translating to more than 1.5 lakh tons this year. Traders are expecting that the total production of jeera in the current year is expected to be around lakh bags, up 1 lakg bags from the last year. This is mainly due to better crop productivity in some areas of Gujarat and quality is poor in Rajasthan. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera gained rupees to end at rupees per 100 kg. The contract made intraday low of Rs a kg and high of Rs a kg. for jeera is at below that could SOYABEAN Soyabean yesterday we have seen that market has moved -0.36% on profit booking after prices gained on good soymeal export demand and low domestic supplies. Currently, markets are witnessing good soymeal demand from Iran and this may continue in the coming day. Also, domestic soyoil demand too is likely to be good in the coming days due to wedding season. Besides the demand, low supplies are also working in favour of prices. Arrivals of soyabean in Madhya Pradesh state dropped by bags of 100kg each to bags of 100kg each. Arrivals of soyabean in Maharashtra state gained by bags of 100kg each to bags of 100kg each. As per the latest WASDE report released by USDA, global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at million tons, down slightly from last month as reduced soybean and sunflower seed production is mostly offset by increased rape-seed and cotton seed production. Argentina soybean production is projected at 51.5 million tons, down 1.5 million tons. Brazil soy-bean production estimates is kept at 83.5 MMT unchanged. Market has opened at 3862 & made a low of versus the day high of The total volume for the day was at lots and the open interest was at for soyabean is at 3834 below that could see a test of is now seen at 3907 above that could see a resistance of # Soybean dropped on profit booking after prices gained on good soymeal export demand and low domestic supplies. # Currently, markets are witnessing good soymeal demand from Iran and this may continue in the coming day. # NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks dropped by 80 tonnes to tonnes. # At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 9 Rs to 4044Re 100 kgs. # BUY SOYABEAN MAY ABV 3875 SL 3850 TGT NCDEX Please See the Disclaimer on the Last 6

7 OTHER MARKET LEVEL NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE OPEN INT Change in Rs. Change in % Volume RSI (18 DAYS) NATURAL GAS APR MAY APR Res-1 Res-2 Res-3 MONTH LEAD APR MAY APR Res-1 Res-2 Res-3 MONTH ALUMINIUM APR MAY APR Res-1 Res-2 Res-3 MONTH CHILLI JUNE , JULY LEVEL JUNE Res-1 Res-2 Res-3 MONTH NCDEX GUR JULY JULY , , SEPT , , JULY Res-1 Res-2 Res-3 MONTH MENTHOL APR MAY FEB Res-1 Res-2 Res-3 MONTH POSITIVE SOYA BEAN MAY , JUNE , MAY Res-1 Res-2 Res-3 MONTH Please See the Disclaimer on the Last 7

8 ECONOMICAL DATA DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous 2:00pm EUR Sentix Investor Confidence :30pm EUR German Industrial Production m/m :0 0 0 Mon NEWS YOU CAN USE The European Central Bank put the blame for initial market turmoil over Cyprus's bailout squarely on the island's government on Thursday and pledged that taxing depositors would not become normal procedure. ECB President Mario Draghi said Cyprus's bailout was "no template", a statement designed to ease market fears that bank deposits would in future be fair game for international lenders seeking to help struggling euro zone countries. But he was also scathing about Cyprus's initial plan to impose a levy on insured as well as uninsured bank depositors. "That was not smart, to say the least, and was quickly corrected (by euro zone finance ministers)," he said. Draghi said the finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund had wanted Cyprus to help pay for its 10 billion euros with a levy on wealthy depositors only. Cyprus, however, had initially also sought to charge those with 100,000 euros or less even though they had a bank deposit guarantee. The move triggered a wave of concern in financial markets, fearing that investors elsewhere would be unnerved and start a bank run. Draghi said depositors with guarantees should be sacrosanct, but that it was best not to touch any depositors if possible. "There isn't actually a specific distinction between categories of bondholders and uninsured depositors in the draft directive. But basically the point is that you, if you can, don't touch uninsured depositors," Draghi said. He also said it would be of no help to Cyprus if it left the euro zone, as some have floated. American employers hired at the slowest pace in nine months in March, a sign that Washington's austerity drive could be stealing momentum from the economy. The economy added just 88,000 nonfarm jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, well below market expectations for a 200,000 increase. The jobless rate ticked a tenth of a point lower to 7.6 percent largely due to people dropping out of the work force. Analysts suspected some of the weakness was due to tax hikes enacted in January. While retail sales data had not shown a big impact earlier in the year, retailers cut staff in March by 24,100. It was unclear whether across-the-board federal budget cuts that began in March played a significant role in the weak pace of hiring, although nervousness over the cuts might have made businesses shy about taking on more staff. The slowdown in job growth could make policymakers at the Federal Reserve more confident about continuing a bond-buying stimulus program. Prior advances in the labor market recovery had fueled discussion at the central bank over whether to dial back the purchases, perhaps as soon as this summer. North Korea warns it could not guarantee the safety of diplomats after next Wednesday and has asked embassies to consider moving staff out of the country, European diplomats said, amid high tension on the Korean peninsula. The requests came on the heels of declarations by the secretive state that real conflict was inevitable, because of "hostile" U.S. troop exercises with South Korea and U.N. sanctions imposed over the North's latest nuclear weapons test. They also followed South Korean media reports that the North, under its 30-year-old leader Kim Jong-un, had moved two missiles to the country's east coast. "The current question was not whether, but when a war would break out on the peninsula," because of the "increasing threat from the United States", China's state news agency, Xinhua, on Friday quoted the North's Foreign Ministry as saying. It added that diplomatic missions should consider evacuation. North Korea would provide safe locations for diplomats in accordance with international conventions, Xinhua quoted the ministry as saying in a notification to embassies. On Saturday morning, a South Korean government official expressed bewilderment at the North's appeals to diplomats. "As North Korea has many reasons behind the latest threats, it's hard to define what is its real intention," said the official, who asked not to be identified. "But it might have intensified these threats to strengthen the regime internally or to respond to international community." Please See the Disclaimer on the Last 8

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