Report Summary cents (+0.02) per lb. as on Feb 24, Critical factors

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1 Daily ICE Sugar Futures Price Outlook and Strategy D e c i s i o n e n a b l i n g m a r k e t a n a l y s i s & p r i c e o u t l o o k Report Summary For Feb 25, 2015 ICE Sugar May 15 Futures cents (+0.02) per lb. as on Feb 24, 2015 Critical factors Impact Fundamental Summary Energy counter and currency volatility are likely to prompt International sugar prices to trade mixed at the immediate front Bearish Bullish Technical Summary Price outlook summary Price Ranges Strategy Review Trading Strategy The short term upside correction has been over confirmed by hammer at the top of the short term recovery. Prices are likely to trade sideways to downside towards cents while sustaining below cents in coming 5-6 sessions. Next five sessions Next ten sessions Price Range Bias Price Range Bias Mixed Negative Our sell trade at cents got execute on 24 Feb Traders are advised to hold the position by maintaining Stop Loss above cents, for the objective of cents. Filled on Position Entry Objective Stop Loss 24 Feb 2015 Short cents cents Above cents Market Review Performance audit ICE Sugar Futures Since 2011 FY Range honored 57.83% % Net profit / Gross profit Ratio % % ICE sugar active May 15 futures traded range bound during the yester session finding solace from trucker strike in Brazil entering the 6 th consecutive day. Finally, the active contract settled marginally higher by 0.02 cents/lb at cents/lb. With four year of supply increment on the global front, dry weather concerns at the Brazilian front in the Sugar and Coffee growing regions indicate a lesser yield in the 2015/16 crop thus indicating lower production numbers from Brazil for 2015/16 crop. Meanwhile from the Indian front though the Government permission for export of raw sugar under export subsidy is pegged at 1.4 MMT, the real time export scenario moving forward from the Maharashtra mills looks to be under par 1 MMT. Amid such scenario, the export of sugar from Brazil remains wide open providing lateral support for ICE prices in the near term.

2 During similar timeframe the same shall weigh on the Indian domestic sugar markets prompting prices to extend the underlying bearish sentiment. At the energy front, the counters pose a two way trade action amid no concrete decision emanating on emergency OPEC meeting. Under such circumstances, the downward risk for prices in the near term stands wide open. Amid such scenario, the ethanol counters too shall paint a two way price action in the near term. With US crude inventory report likely to be available for trade during the late session, the same might inflict volatility in the sugar counters during the day. However, any such gains are likely to wither amid global supply glut thus keeping the medium term bearish sentiment intact. Concisely look for ICE sugar prices to trade mixed tracking energy counter sentiment and thus the currency volatility in the coming 2-3 sessions. Technical Outlook ICE Sugar No.11 May 15 futures prices are closing below 34-Day EMA after indicating some positive move towards INR cents. On the daily technical setup, Momentum oscillator, RSI (14 period) is trending downside, indicating weakness in the prices. Along with this, MACD is also showing negative divergence, supporting for downside movement in coming sessions. On daily chart, sort of decending triangle formation breakout can be seen, supporting for any big downside move in coming sessions. In the last session, prices sustained below horizontal line of the descending triangle, supporting for downside move. As a whole, downside movement towards cents can be expected in coming 5-6 sessions. In downside sugar is having strong support at cents. In upside, will act as recent resistance, followed by cents. Any close above cents may trigger some upside movement towards cents, but the over all trend will remain weak. Prices are likely to trade sideways to downside towards cents while sustaining below cents in coming 5-6 sessions.

3 Sugar M Spread (INR/qtl) SugarM30 Spread Kolhapur (INR/qtl) -100 Refined M-30- Landed from Brazil(INR/qtl) May'15-Mar'15(Spread) ICE Sugar-11 Spread (Us cents/lb) /18 2/20 2/22 2/24 Oct'15-Jul'15(Spread) Mini Charts Sugar M Spread (INR/qtl) Jul'15-May'15(Spread) 53 Sugar M200 Forward Curve (INR/qtl) /24/ Mar'15 May'15 Jul'15 ICE Sugar-11 Spread (Us cents/lb) May'15-Mar'15(Spread) LIFFE - 5 Sugar Spread ($/ton) Aug'15-May'15(Spread) 5.9 SugarM30 Spot Spread (Kolhapur-Muzaffarnagar) (INR/qtl) Brazil Refined- Raw Spread ($/ton) ICE Sugar-11 Spread (Us cents/lb) Jul'15-May'15(Spread) LIFFE - 5 Sugar Spread 14($/ton) Oct'15-Aug'15(Spread) 8.2 LIFFE - 5 Sugar Spread ($/ton) ICE -LIFFE Future Spread USD/INR

4 Dec'15-Oct'15(Spread) USD/Real CBOT Ethanol ($/gallon) Brazil Sugar &Ethanol prices 2/24/ Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 2/18 2/20 2/23 2/24 Spot Prices Grade Market Feb Gur INR/Qtl Chaku Muzzaffarnagar 2346(-0.06) Sugar INR/Qtl M-30 Muzzaffarnagar 2785(-0.36) S-30 Mumbai 2725(-0.36) M-30 Mumbai 2805(-0.35) S-30 Kolhapur 2554(0.13) M-30 Kolhapur 2666(-0.26) M-30 Kanpur 2863(-0.01) Feb Refined Sugar ($/ton) FOB Brazil 319(-0.08) Raw Sugar ($/ton) FOB Brazil 380(-0.07) Raw Sugar ($/ton) C&F Black Sea 342(-0.07) Daily Sugar (US cents/lb) ISA 14.29(-1.04) 15 Day Average price (US ISA cents/lb) 14.78(3.43) Figures in brackets indicate % change from previous session. Futures Prices Exchange Active Total Open Feb Contract Volume Interest Open High Low Close Change NCDEX Sugar NCDEX (Sugar-M200) Mar ICE & LIFFE Sugar- Feb ICE (Sugar 11) Mar LIFFE (Sugar 5) Mar

5 Gur prices in INR/40 Kg. Sugar-M 200 INR/Qtl, ICE prices in US cents/lb Sugar Mill-wise prices from North India 24 Feb 2015 Name of the mill Currency Market Update Feb Grade INR/Qtl Currency Close Change from previous session Mawana M (0) INR vs. USD Dourala M (0) THB vs. INR Simbhaoli M (0) AUD vs. INR Shamli M (0) Euro vs. Dollar Khatouli M (0) USD vs. Real Figures in brackets indicate change from previous session

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