FX Viewpoint. Tuesday, January 17, Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update
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- Cassandra Lindsey
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1 FX Viewpoint Tuesday, January 17, 217 Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update The net portfolio inflow environment in Asia remains largely supportive and should bolster the regional currencies if the broad dollar continues to flail. Within the construct of this metric, the KRW and the INR continue to have relatively more potential upside (in the face of a further dollar retreat) while the PHP can continue to inch higher in line with its improving portfolio situation. Meanwhile, the TWD is looking slightly rich on a short term horizon relative to its subdued equity inflows. Elsewhere, net inflows for the IDR have moderated and may limit the local unit s potential for appreciation in the short term. Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: / 1881 Fixed Income & Structured Products Tel: Investments & Structured Product Tel: Interest Rate Derivatives Tel: Treasury Research & Strategy Tel: 3-87 Emmanuel Ng ngcyemmanuel@ocbc.com
2 USD-TWD USD-TWD USD-KRW USD-KRW Aug-215 Nov-215 Feb-216 May-216 Jul-216 Oct-216 Jan-217 NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS USD-KRW NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS SOUTH KOREA Jun Mar-13 2-Dec Sep-14 3-Jul-15 8-Apr Jan-17 NFB: Bond & Equity:RS6 USD-KRW (RHS) Bond & Eq RS 6D Sep-215 Dec-215 Mar-216 Jun-216 Oct-216 Jan-217 NFB: 2d RS USD-TWD NFB: 2D RS 1 TWD vs Net foreign equity interest Mar Nov Aug-15 3-Apr Jan-17 6-day RS USD-TWD TSEC net foreign buying RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 2
3 USD-IDR USD-IDR USD-INR USD-INR INDIA India Dec-215 Mar-216 Jun-216 Oct-216 Jan-217 NFB: Bond & Eq RS 2D USD-INR - - NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS INR vs net foreign bond & equity interest 58 7 India Apr-14 Nov-14 May-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Jan-17 RS6 USD-INR - - SEBI net bond & eq RS Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Bond & Equity:2D RS USD-IDR Bond & Equity: 2D RS Dec Sep-14 3-Jul-15 8-Apr Jan-17 Bond & Equity: 6D RS USD-IDR Net foreign bond & eq RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 3
4 USD-PHP USD-PHP USD-THB USD-THB Nov-215 Apr-216 Aug-216 Jan-217 Net bond & equity WTD RS2 USD-THB - - Net bond & equity WTD RS Dec Sep-14 2-Jul-15 7-Apr Jan-17 Net bond & equity WTD RS6 USD-THB Net bond & equity WTD RS Nov-215 Apr-216 Aug-216 Jan-217 NFB: RS2 USD-PHP NFB: RS2 PHP vs Net foreign equity interest Dec Sep-14 3-Jul-15 8-Apr Jan-17 USD-PHP NFB: RS Net foreign buying RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 4
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