Daily Commodity Roundup as on Friday, September 14, Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL :

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1 Daily Commodity Roundup as on Friday, September 14, 2018 Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 1

2 INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE GOLD $ EURUSD LME COPPER LME ALUMINIUM SENSEX USDINR SILVER $ CRUDE $ GBPUSD USDJPY LME 2371 LME ZINC 0.83 NICKEL LME $ INDEX 0.22 LEAD NIFTY DJIA S&P NIKKEI INDEX Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 2

3 MCX Gold Oct 2018 Gold edged lower as investors purchased riskier assets instead of seeking a safe haven in gold, amid hopes for a new round of U.S.-China trade talks. Gold on MCX settled down -0.66% at as investors purchased riskier assets instead of seeking a safe haven in gold, amid hopes for a new round of U.S.-China trade talks. Senior U.S. officials sent an invitation to their Chinese counterparts to hold another bilateral trade meeting, raising speculation about a subtle shift in Washington s policy. The outreach comes as more than 85 U.S. industry groups launched a coalition to take a fight public against President Donald Trump s trade tariffs. The months-long trade rift between U.S. and China has prompted investors to buy the U.S. dollar in the belief that the United States has less to lose from the dispute. The Labor Department said its consumer price index advanced 0.2%, missing expectations for a gain of 0.3%. In the 12 months through July, the CPI increased 2.7%, below forecasts for a reading of 2.8% and slowing from 2.9% in July. Core prices are viewed by the Federal Reserve as a better gauge of longer-term inflationary pressure precisely because they exclude the volatile food and energy categories. The central bank usually tries to aim for 2% core inflation or less. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates at its Sept policy meeting. It has raised rates twice this year. Meanwhile, investors remained focused on the U.S.- China trade dispute following news that the Trump administration has invited Chinese officials to restart trade talks, which raised hopes for a deal easing the bitter tariff dispute between the world's two biggest economies. Technically now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 30612, a move above could see prices testing Gold trading range for the day is RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT The trade conflict has prompted investors to buy the U.S. dollar in the belief that the United States has less to lose from the dispute. US President Trump to order sanctions on any foreign companies or people found meddling in US elections Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings fell 0.36 percent to tonnes on Thursday from Wednesday. Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 3

4 MCX Silver Dec 2018 Silver dropped shrugging off a weaker dollar as President Donald Trump's remarks on trade knocked investor optimism on U.S.-China relations. Silver on MCX settled down -0.6% at shrugging off a weaker dollar as President Donald Trump's remarks on trade knocked investor optimism on U.S.-China relations. Just days after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to step up a trade war by imposing tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods a proposal that has already gone through public consultations but also on a further $267 billion. Those tariffs, if activated, would be in addition to tariffs already in place on around $50 billion worth of Chinese goods and would cover more than the total Chinese exports to the U.S. U.S. officials said they had send an invitation to their counterparts in China. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is reportedly working to meet with top Chinese officials, including Vice Premier Liu He, who is Chinese President Xi Jinping s top economic adviser. The US producer price index (PPI) for final demand fell unexpectedly by 0.1% in August, seasonally adjusted, the US Department of Labor reported. This marked the first drop in a year and a half, as declines in the prices of food and a range of trade services offset higher costs of energy products. On a yearly basis, the PPI rose 2.8%, slowing further after an increase of 3.3% in July. Despite the moderation in producer prices last month, overall inflation is steadily rising against the backdrop of a strong labour market and a robust economy. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.99% to settled at while prices down -222 rupees, now Silver is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 37289, a move above could see prices testing Silver trading range for the day is RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT The U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to raise the benchmark interest rate at its September meeting and expectations are growing for one more hike in December. The US producer price index (PPI) for final demand fell unexpectedly by 0.1% in August, seasonally adjusted, the US Department of Labor reported. Despite the moderation in producer prices last month, overall inflation is steadily rising against the backdrop of a strong labour market and a robust economy. Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 4

5 MCX Crudeoil Sep 2018 Crude oil dropped after the monthly report from the International Energy Agency showed a jump in global supply to an all-time high. Crudeoil on MCX settled down -3.28% at 4918 after the monthly report from the International Energy Agency showed a jump in global supply to an all-time high. U.S. crude inventories declined by 5.3 million barrels in the week to Sept. 7 to below 4 million barrels, the lowest since February 2015 and around 3% below the five-year-average for this time of year, according to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). U.S. crude oil production dropped by 1000,000 barrels per day (bpd), to 10.9 million bpd. The global oil supply reached a record 100 million barrels per day, the International Energy Agency said in its latest forecast. Crude output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, rose to a nine-month high in August, to million bpd, due to a rebound in Libya production and increases from Iraq, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, the IEA said. Non-OPEC supply was also up 2.6 million bpd, led by U.S. production. However ongoing Iranian and Venezuelan falls in production could risk market tightness, Paris-based agency said. Increased sanctions from the U.S. against Iran, which is a member of OPEC, has put pressure on the organization and could lead to market tightness. The financial sanctions against Iran will target the petroleum sector in November, when a global drop of crude supply is expected. OPEC agreed in June to raise output at a nominal increase of 1 million bpd amid pressure from the U.S. to decrease prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by % to settled at 10459, now Crudeoil is getting support at 4856 and below same could see a test of 4795 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5025, a move above could see prices testing Crudeoil trading range for the day is RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT The global oil supply reached a record 100 million barrels per day, the International Energy Agency said in its latest forecast. Crude output from the OPEC and Russia, rose to a nine-month high in August, to million bpd, due to a rebound in Libya production. U.S. crude inventories declined by 5.3 million barrels in the week to Sept. 7 to below 4 million barrels, the lowest since February Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 5

6 MCX Copper Nov 2018 Copper dropped as investors exercised caution ahead of possible trade talks between the United States and China to resolve an escalating tariff war. Copper on MCX settled down -0.23% at tracking weakness from LME Copper which edged lower pulling back from a two-week high reached in the prior session, as investors exercised caution ahead of possible trade talks between the United States and China to resolve an escalating tariff war. China will not buckle to U.S. demands in any trade negotiations, the major state-run China Daily newspaper said in an editorial on Friday, after Chinese officials welcomed an invitation from Washington for a new round of talks. Meanwhile China and the United States are set to return to the table with the threat of new U.S. tariffs looming after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin extended the invitation to counterparts in Beijing. The official China Daily said that while China was serious about resolving the stand-off through talks, it would not be rolled over, despite concerns over a slowing economy and a falling stock market at home. The dollar sagged after weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data further burdened a currency already weighed down by signs of reduced trade tensions between the US and China. For today market participants should monitor data such as the US retail sales for August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for September, and China s total retail sales of consumer goods last month. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.12% to settled at while prices down -1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at and below same could see a test of 424 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 432.8, a move above could see prices testing Copper trading range for the day is RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT The US and China have so far imposed tariffs on $50 billion of each other's goods in a spat that has left the market fearing demand for industrial metals will weaken. China copper premiums have risen to $91 a tonne, the most since February 2016, in a sign of strong underlying demand for physical metal. Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at mt that is down by -7900mt. Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 6

7 MCX Zinc Sep 2018 Zinc dropped after President Donald Trump's remarks on trade knocked investor optimism on U.S.-China relations. Zinc on MCX settled down -2.29% at as investors exercised caution ahead of possible trade talks between the United States and China to resolve an escalating tariff war. China will not buckle to U.S. demands in any trade negotiations, the major state-run China Daily newspaper said in an editorial on Friday, after Chinese officials welcomed an invitation from Washington for a new round of talks. Investors were also eyeing a slew of Chinese data due out for trading cues, including industrial output and retail sales. Meanwhile China and the United States are set to return to the table with the threat of new U.S. tariffs looming after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin extended the invitation to counterparts in Beijing. The official China Daily said that while China was serious about resolving the stand-off through talks, it would not be rolled over, despite concerns over a slowing economy and a falling stock market at home.last night the US dollar fell to low in one and a half months against a basket of currencies after data showedthat US consumer prices increased less than expected in August, paring traders' outlook that domestic inflation is accelerating. Signs of eased trade tension between China and the US, with the potential trade negotiations, also pressured the greenback. For today market participants should monitor data such as the US retail sales for August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for September, and China s total retail sales of consumer goods last month. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 36.52% to settled at 8572, now Zinc is getting support at 167 and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 171.2, a move above could see prices testing Zinc trading range for the day is RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT Chile produced 3.31 million tonnes of copper in the first seven months of the year, an increase of 10.8 percent from the same period a year earlier. China was considering allowing its northern provinces to determine their own restrictions on industrial output this winter. Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at mt that is down by -5975mt. Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 7

8 MCX Nickel Sep 2018 Nickel dropped as trade war dispute between China and the US weighed on prices, even though the US dollar weakened. Nickel on MCX settled down -0.5% at on long liquidation tracking weakness from other base metals also pressure seen after Indian Rupee rallied the most in 18 months on Wednesday recovered after an official said the government may announce measures to support the currency after a planned review of the economy by Prime Minister Narendra Modi this weekend. But concerns have emerged in recent months that global growth has peaked against the backdrop of an evolving trade war between the United States and China, dampening the outlook for the 2.2- million-tonne per year global nickel market. Overall Nickel price to benefit from short supply, slower production increases in leading supplier Indonesia and continued growth in stainless steel demand are forecast to extend a supply shortage in the global nickel market, supporting price gains through Meanwhile LME nickel prices traded lower in August and have continued to drop so far in September. Nickel prices seemed more volatile in August than for the whole of Current prices have returned to January 2018 levels. Despite the recent downtrend, nickel prices have remained in an uptrend since last summer (June-July), when prices started to increase sharply. A fundamental tightness in the nickel market could also add more support to nickel prices. Combined nickel stocks have fallen by 45% since the beginning of Last night the US dollar fell to low in one and a half months against a basket of currencies after data showed that US consumer prices increased less than expected in August, paring traders' outlook that domestic inflation is accelerating. Technically market is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 909.2, a move above could see prices testing Nickel trading range for the day is RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT The global nickel deficit would be 90,000 tonnes in the first eight months of 2018 and reach 120,000 tonnes by the year-end. U.S. President Donald Trump warned that he was ready to levy additional tariffs on practically all Chinese imports. Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at mt that is down by -1848mt. Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 8

9 NCDEX Jeera Oct 2018 Jeera prices ended with gains amid pick-up in domestic as well as exports demand at the spot market. Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 1.1% at amid pick-up in domestic as well as exports demand at the spot market. Further, tight stocks position on fall in arrivals from the growing regions also added supported to jeera prices uptrend. However, upside seen limited due to improved rains in the central Gujarat major Jeera producing area. As per trade information, crop damaged reported in Syria and Turkey due to heavy rainfall in June support Indian Jeera in International market. Quality wise (due to heavy rainfall) and price wise Indian Jeera more affordable than other producing country. Lower Jeera supply reported in the spot market during the period, as stockists were holding back their stocks on expectations of higher prices in coming days. Jeera supply from last year up by 100% due to increased production current year. Currently, all India stocks reported around lakh bags. According to export data released by Commerce ministry, exports in June surged 55.7% on year to21,404 tonnes. Moreover, country exports about 75,242 tonnes of Jeera during Apr-Jun Jeera arrivals during July are pegged at 8,700 tonnes compared to 3,800 tonnes last year for same period. India is expected to export a record 175,000 tn of jeera in (Apr-Mar), primarily because supply from its competitors has taken a hit making it the sole supplier of the largely sought after spice. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 50 Rupees to end at Rupees per 100 kg.technically now Jeera is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 19820, a move above could see prices testing Jeera trading range for the day is However, upside seen limited due to improved rains in the central Gujarat major Jeera producing area. NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 84 tonnes to 2849 tonnes. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at rupee per 100 kg RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 9

10 NCDEX Turmeric Oct 2018 Turmeric prices dropped amid reports of improved sowing turmeric growing areas of Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.6% at 6656 amid reports of improved sowing turmeric growing areas of Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. However, downside seen limited on anticipation of upcountry demand and on poor quality stocks. Despite last year's lower output stocks of turmeric are stated to be comfortable and would be more than sufficient to meet the demand in coming months. Moreover, crop conditions are good in all the states along with increased acreage. In Telangana, turmeric acreage rose to 47,790 hectare from 44,956 hectare a year ago, state government data showed. In Andhra Pradesh farmers planted turmeric over an area 17,000 hectares until September 6 up from 14,000 hectares a year ago. India exported 107,300 ton turmeric during as down from 116,500 ton a year ago. Besides, restricted supplies from growing regions also added to the upside. However, upside seen limited due to improved sowing and lower exports demand and tracking higher acreage during current season at key turmeric growing regions. The spot market is likely to get festive demand in coming weeks which can prompt buying again in turmeric. In Telangana, Turmeric acreage was reported at 47,114 hectares in the corresponding period last year. Current sowing stands at 86 percent of normal for the season. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at Rupees gained 5.9 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.89% to settled at while prices down -40 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6634 and below same could see a test of 6612 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6694, a move above could see prices testing Turmeric trading range for the day is However, downside seen limited on anticipation of upcountry demand and on poor quality stocks. NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 169 tonnes to 4290 tonnes. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at Rupees gained 5.9 Rupees RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 10

11 MCX Menthaoil Sep 2018 Mentha oil dropped on profit booking amid subdued demand at the spot market. Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -0.68% at on profit booking amid subdued demand at the spot market. Further, ample stock positions on higher supplies from the major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too weighed on mentha oil prices. Anticipation of bumper crop harvest and nearing of harvesting season adding negativity to the market. As per preliminary estimates, acreage under mentha crop will rise this year as the farmers are encouraged by higher price in recent past. As per trade sources, all the major markets are likely to witness higher inflow of the produce. There could be chances of crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition. Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around 80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between 30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in India for crop year will be around 38,000 tonnes. As per the data, the global demand of essential oil will increase in the coming years. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.3.10/-.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.21% to settled at 1269 while prices down rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1807, a move above could see prices testing Menthaoil trading range for the day is Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.3.10/ RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT Further, ample stock positions on higher supplies from the major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too weighed on mentha oil prices. Anticipation of bumper crop harvest and nearing of harvesting season adding negativity to the market. Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 11

12 COMMODITIES CLOSE RESISTANCE NCDEX CHANA Oct 2018 NCDEX Cotton Oct 2018 NCDEX Jeera Oct 2018 DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL NCDEX Guarseed10 Oct 2018 NCDEX Turmeric Oct 2018 NCDEX Rmseed Oct 2018 MCX CPO Sep 2018 NCDEX Soyabean Oct P. POINT SUPPORT NCDEX Ref.Soya oil Oct Cng in OI TREND Short Covering Long Liquidation Fresh Buying Fresh Buying Long Liquidation Fresh Buying Fresh Selling Fresh Selling Fresh Selling LME DAILY STOCK POSITION COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC -875 CommodiME STOCK Stock COPPER ALUMINIU NICKEL LEAD ZINC LME STOCK ECONOMICAL DATA TIME ZONE DATA Forecast Previous 2:30pm EUR Trade Balance 16.3B 16.7B 6:00pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m :00pm USD Retail Sales m/m :00pm USD Import Prices m/m :45pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate :45pm USD Industrial Production m/m :30pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment :30pm USD Business Inventories m/m :30pm USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 12

13 NEWS YOU CAN USE India's gold imports more than doubled in August to hit their highest level in 15 months as lower prices prompted manufacturers to replenish inventory for a jewellery exhibition, provisional data showed. The percent jump in gold purchases year-on-year to 100 tonnes last month by the world's second biggest consumer could support global prices, which have so far slid 8.5 percent in For the first eight months of 2018, Indian gold imports fell 12.6 percent from a year earlier to tonnes, data compiled by GFMS showed. Indian gold demand is set to improve in the second half of the year after falling 6 percent in the January-June period, as government steps to boost farmers' incomes are expected to boost rural buying power, the World Gold Council said last month. In September, imports would likely moderate as gold prices have rebounded in last few days due to the depreciating rupee, said a Mumbai-based bullion dealer with a private bank. Demand for gold usually strengthens in the final quarter of the year as India gears up for the wedding season as well as major festivals including Diwali and Dussehra, when buying the yellow metal is considered auspicious. Japan s economy grew in April-June at its fastest pace since 2016 thanks to capital spending rising more quickly than earlier estimated, although global trade tensions and a string of natural disasters pose risks to the outlook. The preliminary reading was for a 1.9 percent expansion. The economy s improved performance should be a relief for policymakers worried about fallout from a trade war between the United States and China, which could derail global growth and in turn damage Japan s export-reliant economy. A recent run of soft data, including exports and factory output, had fueled doubts in the strength of the economy. A series of natural disasters such as floods, last week s typhoon and an earthquake severely disrupted business and consumer activity, adding to concerns about growth this quarter. The updated second-quarter growth showed quarter-on-quarter expansion of 0.7 percent in real, price-adjusted terms, compared with an initial reading of a 0.5 percent growth and the median estimate for a 0.7 percent gain. The capital expenditure component of GDP grew 3.1 percent in April-June from the previous quarter, versus the median forecast for 2.8 percent growth, and the preliminary 1.3 percent gain. It was the fastest increase since the start of The uptrend in pepper prices witnessed last month, following incessant rains impacting the crop in Kerala and Karnataka, appears to have been short-lived. Pepper prices in Kochi, which moved up from Rs per kg in mid-july to around Rs late in August, have now dropped and are hovering between Rs. 365 and Rs. 390, depending on the quality. Pepper growers and the trade attribute this weakening trend to the surge in imports of the spice from Vietnam, both through official and unofficial routes. Kishore Shamji of the Kochi-based Kishore Spices cited the cheap availability of Vietnam pepper imported via Sri Lanka through the ports of Krishnapattinam, Tuticorin, Chennai, Nava Sheva and Mundra as the reasons for the price drop. At the same time, Shamji alleged that North Indian markets such as Indore, Gwalior, Jaipur, Patna, Ranchi and Delhi have been flooded with cheap Vietnamese pepper smuggled through the Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal borders in cashand-carry mode to evade GST. Quoting Vietnam Pepper Association figures, Shamji said that 6,800 tonnes of pepper have come to India through these unofficial channels in the January-July period, whereas India officially imported 13,000 tonnes during this period from Vietnam alone. The US imported 27,000 tonnes and China, 22,000 tonnes. Shamji pointed out that the landing cost of Vietnam pepper is at present Rs. 310 compared to the Minimum Import Price of Rs Shamji wondered why spices exporters were depending on imports at a time when local prices are below the MIP, at Rs. 375/kg. Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 13

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Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited.: Registered and Corporate address: The Capital, A-wing, No , 6th Floor, Plot No. C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai CIN - U01119MH1994PTC MCX SEBI Reg No.: INZ NCDEX SEBI Reg No.: INZ Member Code: MCX: NCDEX: 534 Date : Friday, September 14, 2018 URL : Page No : 14