Daily Commodity Report as on Monday, May 15, Date : Monday, May 15, 2017 URL : Page No - 1

Transcription

1 Daily Commodity Report as on Monday, May 15, 2017 Date : Monday, May 15, 2017 URL : Page No - 1

2 Open High Low Close % Cng OI Precious Metals Gold Silver Base Metal Alum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Energy Crude Nat. Gas Market Round up Gold prices traded in range as the sudden sacking of the FBI head in US stoked investor concerns even as the dollar headed for its strongest week this year. Silver prices ended with gains after weaker than expected inflation and core retail sales data weighed on the dollar and lifted sentiment for the metal. Crude oil pared gains on profit booking but prices gained on weekly basis due to increasing support for continued OPEC-led production cuts. Copper rose with investors tempted by falling stockpiles and as Chinese authorities' move to ease monetary policy spurred growth hopes. Zinc dropped as mine output rises despite of hopes of refined zinc market deficit and higher premiums. Spices Cardamom Turmeric Jeera Dhaniya Cereals Wheat Oil and Oilseeds & Others Soyabean Ref. Oil CPO RMSeed Menthol Cotton Nickel ended with flat node as prices are not promising considering sufficient nickel inventories and resumption of nickel ore exports by the Philippines. Natural gas gained continuing its gains after data showed that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose less than expected last week. Ref soyoil prices traded in range and ended with small gains tracking firmness in spot demand and overseas prices. Mentha oil prices gained amid surge in demand in the domestic spot market. Soyabean prices ended with losses on supply pressure and good monsoon forecast. 1 Currency USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Turmeric prices ended with gains on expectation of rising demand at the spot market. Jeera prices dropped tracking weakness in spot demand as supplies are expected to improve in the major physical market. Date : Monday, May 15, 2017 URL : Page No - 2

3 MCX Gold Jun 2017 OPEN SUP Gold trading range for the day is HIGH SUP LOW P.P CLOSE RES Gold prices traded in range as the sudden sacking of the FBI head in US stoked investor concerns even as the dollar headed for its strongest week this year. But capping gains in gold are expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in June. In a speech, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he continues to see two more rate hikes as appropriate this year. % CNG 0.00 RES BUY GOLD JUN SL TGT MCX Gold prices traded in range as the sudden sacking of the FBI head in the United States stoked investor concerns and boosted demand for bullion, even as the dollar headed for its strongest week this year. But capping gains in gold are expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in June. New applications for U.S. jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, while producer prices rebounded strongly in April, pointing to a tightening labour market and rising inflation that could spur the Fed to raise interest rates. U.S President Donald Trump on Thursday ran into resistance for calling ousted Federal Bureau of Investigation chief Comey a "showboat". The attack was swiftly rebuffed by top U.S. senators and acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe, who pledged that an investigation into possible Trump campaign ties to Russia would proceed. The sharp rally for the dollar at the start of the week has slowed, helping ease some pressure on gold, while sluggish trading for stocks over the last few sessions has also elevated gold s haven appeal, at least in the short term. In a speech, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he continues to see two more rate hikes as appropriate this year. Gold demand in Asia rose this week as a dip in bullion prices enticed buyers to make new purchases, with the metal being sold at a higher premium in top consumer China. Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce over official domestic prices, compared with a premium of $2 last week. Technically now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28098, a move above could see prices testing MCX Silver Jul 2017 OPEN SUP Silver trading range for the day is HIGH SUP LOW P.P CLOSE RES % CNG 0.43 RES Silver prices ended with gains after weaker than expected inflation and core retail sales data weighed on the dollar and lifted sentiment for the metal. Recent federal data suggests a tightening labour market and rising inflation have strengthened the case for another interest rate hike by the U.S. central bank in June. The Labor Department said consumer prices rose 0.2% after a 0.3% drop in March, which was the biggest fall in more than two years. BUY SILVER JUL SL TGT MCX Silver prices ended with gains after weaker than expected inflation and core retail sales data weighed on the dollar and lifted sentiment for the metal. Prices seen supported after a softer batch of economic data eased risk-on sentiment, pushing the dollar and US treasuries lower. Recent federal data suggests a tightening labour market and rising inflation have strengthened the case for another interest rate hike by the U.S. central bank in June. New applications for U.S. jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, while producer prices rebounded strongly in April, pointing to a tightening labour market and rising inflation that could spur the Fed to raise interest rates. Reflecting a notable increase in retail inventories, the Commerce Department released a report showing that U.S. business inventories rose by slightly more than expected in the month of March. The report said business inventories edged up by 0.2 percent in March, matching the revised uptick seen in February. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. has seen a modest improvement in the month of May, according to a report released by the University of Michigan. The report said the preliminary reading on the consumer sentiment index for May came in at 97.7 compared to the final April reading of The uptick by the headline index came amid an improvement in consumer expectations, as the index of consumer expectations rose to 88.1 in May from 87.0 in April. According to fed rate monitor tool, 70% of traders expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in June, compared to 63% in the previous week. Technically now Silver is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38267, a move above could see prices testing Date : Monday, May 15, 2017 URL : Page No - 3

4 MCX Crudeoil May 2017 OPEN 3082 SUP Crudeoil trading range for the day is HIGH 3096 SUP LOW 3045 P.P CLOSE 3066 RES Crude oil pared gains on profit booking but prices gained on weekly basis due to increasing support for continued OPEC-led production cuts. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, has said it expects an extension to the end of 2017 or possibly beyond. Russia said as of May 1, it had cut output by more than 300,000 bpd since hitting peak production in October. % CNG RES SELL CRUDEOIL MAY 3080 SL 3120 TGT MCX Crude oil pared gains on profit booking but gained on weekly basis by over three percent gains as lower U.S. crude inventories and increasing support for continued OPEC-led production cuts inspired hope that the global supply glut can be reduced. OPEC and other producers meet on May 25 to decide whether to extend the output cuts they agreed to last November. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, has said it expects an extension to the end of 2017 or possibly beyond. Russia, which has contributed the largest production cut outside OPEC, said as of May 1, it had cut output by more than 300,000 bpd since hitting peak production in October. Russia's Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, said in written comments his country is inclined to extend its output cuts. But many in the market believe steeper cuts are needed to reduce the glut significantly. U.S. drillers added oil rigs for the 17th straight week, Baker Hughes data showed on Friday. Horizontal rigs, the type most often used to extract oil or gas from shale, rose 8 to 742. Oil rigs rose 9 to 712. U.S. crude production C-OUT-T-EIA has risen more than 10 percent since mid-2016 to more than 9.3 million bpd, close to the levels of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to May 9th to their lowest level since November. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.77% to settled at 15674, now Crudeoil is getting support at 3042 and below same could see a test of 3018 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3093, a move above could see prices testing MCX Copper Jun 2017 OPEN SUP Copper trading range for the day is HIGH SUP LOW P.P CLOSE RES Copper rose with investors tempted by falling stockpiles and as Chinese authorities' move to ease monetary policy spurred growth hopes. Chinese banks extended 1.1 trillion yuan ($159 billion) in net new yuan loans in April, above expectations. SHFE Copper warehouses stocks fell to 194,993 tonnes, their lowest since Jan. 20. % CNG 0.26 RES BUY COPPER JUN SL TGT MCX Copper on MCX settled up 0.26% at with investors tempted by falling stockpiles and as Chinese authorities' move to ease monetary policy spurred growth hopes. China's central bank injected fresh funds through a medium-term lending facility while keeping a tight rein on short-term funding in an effort to dampen speculative investment. Chinese banks extended 1.1 trillion yuan ($159 billion) in net new yuan loans in April, above expectations. Reining in excessive local government debt and the shadow banking sector in China has been high on the central government's agenda in recent weeks, leading to concerns growth will stall. The dollar fell after weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data raised doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will assume a hawkish bent through the year end. China's industrial output is expected to have risen by 7.1 percent in April, slowing from a 7.6 percent rise in March, while fixed asset investment probably stayed relatively stable at 9.1 percent in April. China s refined copper cathode output is expected to slow further in New capacities coming online decreased in 2016, and new capacities in 2017 will be mainly commissioned in the second half of the year, explaining the reason behind such a prediction. China's copper smelting and refining capacity will increase to 7.70 million tonnes and million tonnes, respectively, in LME data showed copper stocks fell 7,350 tonnes to 329,375, their lowest since March 3. Copper stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell to 194,993 tonnes, their lowest since Jan. 20. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.3% to settled at 16671, now Copper is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 361.2, a move above could see prices testing Date : Monday, May 15, 2017 URL : Page No - 4

5 MCX Zinc May 2017 OPEN SUP Zinc trading range for the day is HIGH SUP LOW P.P CLOSE RES Zinc dropped as mine output rises despite of hopes of refined zinc market deficit and higher premiums. Spot premiums on zinc in Guangdong rose above those in Tianjin and Shanghai due to tightening supply. China s refined zinc production fell to 413,000 tonnes in April 2017, a drop of 3.95% month-on-month and 5.92% year-on-year. % CNG RES BUY ZINC MAY SL TGT MCX Zinc on MCX settled down -1.65% at as pressure seen after LME prices closed down 1.4 percent at $2,554 as mine output rises despite of hopes of refined zinc market deficit and higher premiums. A deficit in refined zinc remains elusive some 18 months after massive mine cuts rocked the market and powered exchange prices to nine-year highs, with large-scale smelter cuts yet to materialise. Zinc smelters have avoided reducing output primarily due to the market s structurally low metal payables for concentrate and "free zinc" priced at high value due to last year s rally. Spot premiums on zinc in Guangdong rose above those in Tianjin and Shanghai due to tightening supply. Spot premiums on zinc in Guangdong expanded yuan from last week to 300 yuan per tonne over July zinc on the SHFE. China s refined zinc production fell to 413,000 tonnes in April 2017, a drop of 3.95% month-on-month and 5.92% year-on-year. Total refined zinc output in the first four months of the year was million tonnes, a fall of 1.84% on a yearly basis. Lower zinc prices and domestic zinc concentrate TCs ate into profit at domestic zinc smelters. Besides, enhanced environmental protection in some regions affected mine production, tightening raw material supply for zinc smelters. Glencore said in its Q1 earnings report its zinc production at self-owned mines rose 9% on a yearly basis to 279,200 tonnes in the first quarter of 2017 due to steady production at Antamina mine. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.45% to settled at 3462, now Zinc is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 166.5, a move above could see prices testing MCX Nickel May 2017 OPEN SUP Nickel trading range for the day is HIGH SUP LOW P.P CLOSE RES % CNG 0.13 RES Nickel ended with flat node as prices are not promising considering sufficient nickel inventories and resumption of nickel ore exports by the Philippines. China s refined nickel output is expected to be at 12,500-13,500 tonnes in May. China s NPI output dropped in April as big losses from high costs led to production cuts or suspension at domestic high-grade NPI producers. BUY NICKEL MAY SL TGT MCX Nickel ended with flat node as prices are not promising considering sufficient nickel inventories and resumption of nickel ore exports by the Philippines. China s refined nickel output was 12,900 tonnes in April. Output at Jinchuan Group and Yantai Kaishi Industry was low in April due to sluggish prices, and production at other smelters was normal. Production conditions at domestic nickel producers are expected to be largely unchanged in May on a monthly basis. China s refined nickel output is expected to be at 12,500-13,500 tonnes in May. China s NPI output is expected to keep falling in May following production cuts at domestic NPI producers. China s NPI output dropped in April as big losses from high costs led to production cuts or suspension at domestic high-grade NPI producers, especially those in Inner Mongolia and Shandong. Production conditions at domestic low-grade NPI producers were mixed. Production cuts or suspension at some high-grade NPI producers are continuing as losses remain. Weak demand have triggered production reduction at both some low-grade NPI and stainless steel integrated mills and low-grade NPI plants. Nickel ore inventories at seven major Chinese ports dropped in the week. Inventories at the seven ports, after slightly growing for two weeks in a row, fell by by 80,000 tonnes last week. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.54% to settled at while prices up 0.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 603.4, a move above could see prices testing Date : Monday, May 15, 2017 URL : Page No - 5

6 NCDEX Jeera Jun 2017 OPEN SUP Jeera trading range for the day is HIGH SUP LOW P.P Jeera prices dropped tracking weakness in spot demand as supplies are expected to improve in the major physical market. Sources estimate India s jeera crop output will be around 2.5 lakh tonnes, lower than the 3.75 to 5 lakh-tonne estimated. CLOSE RES NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 54 tonnes to 2512 tonnes. % CNG RES SELL JEERA JUN SL TGT NCDEX Jeera on NCDEX settled down -0.22% at tracking weakness in spot demand as supplies are expected to improve in the major physical market. The arrivals have been lower during first 7 days of May compared to April. As per data, about 2,450 tonnes of jeera arrived in May (1-7) compared to 7,997 in April (1-7). On the export front, country the exports increase by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016/17 as per the data release by Dept of commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3 rd advance estimates for 2016/17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lt, down 4% from its 2nd estimates and almost 11% compared to last year production of 2.38 lt. Sources estimate India s jeera crop output will be around 2.5 lakh tonnes, lower than the 3.75 to 5 lakh-tonne estimates put out by experts. Even at the lower crop estimate, jeera exports are projected to range between 100, ,000 tonnes, for the year. At Rajkot market in Rajkot(Guj.), total arrivals are at 310 quintal, up by 70 quintal as compared to previous day. At Unjha market in Mehsana, sources reported arrivals at 8000 quintals, higher by 1000 quintals from previous day s arrivals. At Jodhpur(Raj.) market in Jodhpur, total arrivals are at 1200 quintals, higher by 200 quintals as against previous day. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.45% to settled at while prices down -40 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 18690, a move above could see prices testing NCDEX Turmeric Jun 2017 OPEN 5640 SUP Turmeric trading range for the day is HIGH 5730 SUP LOW 5634 P.P CLOSE 5698 RES Turmeric prices ended with gains on expectation of rising demand at the spot market. Moreover, lower arrivals from the producing regions also added support to turmeric prices uptrend. NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 15 tonnes to 5299 tonnes. % CNG 1.14 RES SELL TURMERIC JUN 5750 SL 5850 TGT NCDEX Tumeric on NCDEX settled up 1.14% at 5698 on expectation of rising demand at the spot market. Moreover, lower arrivals from the producing regions also added support to turmeric prices uptrend. Reports showed that the turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first 7 days of May at 11,528 tons compared to 20,703 tons during April (1-7). Normal and timely monsoon rains will boost the sowing and output which will have bearish impact while any delay in rains may push the turmeric prices up. In Nizamabad market turmeric finger variety is ruling at Rs 5,500-6,000 per quintal and gatta variety at Rs 4,800-5,200 per quintal amid weak domestic and export buying and comfortable supplies. There is ample supply in the market as India's output is expected at 6.5 million bags (per bag of 70 kg) and with carry forward stock of 2.5 million bags total availability is projected at 9 million bags as against the estimated total demand of nearly 6 million bags. Turmeric sowing starts from July and Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Odisha and Assam are main producing states. At Erode market arrivals were reported at 2000 quintals, down by 500 quintals as compared to previous day. Turmeric prices have seen a slight improvement on dip in arrivals. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association Sales yard, the finger turmeric sold at Rs. 5,389 to Rs. 6,727 a quintal. TURTECHNICALLY market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.03% to settled at while prices up 64 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 5645 and below same could see a test of 5591 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5741, a move above could see prices testing Date : Monday, May 15, 2017 URL : Page No - 6

7 MCX Menthaoil May 2017 OPEN SUP Menthaoil trading range for the day is HIGH SUP Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.14.20/-. LOW P.P CLOSE RES % CNG 1.53 RES Mentha oil prices gained amid surge in demand in the domestic spot market. Further, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from producing regions, too supported mentha oil prices. BUY MENTHAOIL MAY SL TGT MCX Menthaoil on MCX settled up 1.53% at amid surge in demand in the domestic spot market. Further, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from producing regions, too supported mentha oil prices. Stock positions of Mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 4727 drums, while in process were 24 drums, which is same in comparison to the previous day. As per traders, local demand is average from both the local industries as well as stockists. Also in recent years the production and consumption of synthetic mentha has increased which is creating pressure on the mentha prices. Total production of mentha oil during the current season is 32,000-34,000 tonnes against preliminary estimates of around 40,000 tonnes. Unfavourable weather conditions during harvesting period led to the drop in production. On the demand side, the seasonal demand emerges during winter season, especially from the pharma sector. Trade sources estimate that total area under Mentha planting has dropped by 20% to 1.75 lakh ha this season resulting into a proportionate fall in Mentha oil production this year. However, a pick up in sowing over last couple of weeks have ensured prices falling for the commodity, as low demand further pressurized market sentiments. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by % to settled at 1403 while prices up 14.2 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 957.6, a move above could see prices testing DAILY MARKET LEVEL FOR METAL AND ENERGY COMMODITIES GOLD SILVER CRUDE NAT.GAS COPPER ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM CLOSE RESISTANCE P. POINT SUPPORT OI TREND Range Bound Positive Negative Positive Positive Negative Positive Positive LEAD Negative SPREAD Date : Monday, May 15, 2017 URL : Page No - 7

8 NEWS YOU CAN USE DAY TIME ZONE ECONOMICAL DATA EXP PREV German industrial production fell by less than expected in March and trade proved resilient, data showed, supporting expectations for a robust performance of Europe's biggest economy in the first quarter. Industrial output edged down by 0.4 percent on the month, data from the Economy Ministry showed. This was better than the consensus forecast in a poll for a drop of 0.6 percent. The decline was driven by a 2.5 percent fall in energy output. Manufacturing production was down 0.5 percent while construction output rose 1.5 percent.the February reading was revised down to a rise of 1.8 percent from a previously reported increase of 2.2 percent. In January, industrial production rose by 1.3 percent. In the first quarter as a whole, industrial production rose 1.4 percent on the quarter, the ministry said. Separate data released from the Federal Statistics Office showed that seasonally adjusted exports rose by 0.4 percent on the month. This came in better than the consensus forecast in a poll for a rise of 0.2 percent. Imports jumped by 2.4 percent -- much stronger than a predicted increase of 1.0 percent. Mon 6:00pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index :30pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index China will pay closer attention to the influence of non-bank financial institutions on financial stability, and the impact of local policy interventions on broader global markets, according to a central bank working paper. In recent years non-bank institutions such as trust and investment companies, or fund and asset management firms have expanded their activity - much of it a less regulated form of lending - even as policymakers have tried to rein in leverage in the Chinese economy. "Though banks still dominate China's financial system, non-bank financial institutions have considerable influence as well," the paper published on the People's Bank of China website said. "We believe that sufficient attention should be given to international spill-over effects of intervention policies, and the impact of non-bank financial institutions to financial stability," it said. The paper analysed the impact of changes in China's stock market and financial sector on developed countries - the United States, Britain, Germany and Japan. "China's financial sector exerts considerable influence on global financial markets, especially on the Japanese financial sector," it said. China's April producer price inflation cooled for a second straight month as iron ore and coal prices tumbled further, pressured by fears that domestic demand will not be strong enough to absorb surging supplies of steel. The producer price index (PPI) rose 6.4 percent from a year earlier, missing economists' expectations for a 6.9 percent rise and easing further from the previous month's gain of 7.6 percent. In March, China's PPI cooled for the first time in seven months as iron ore and coal prices tumbled after rising sharply on a construction boom that drove China's strongest economic growth since China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2 percent from a year earlier, edging up from March's 0.9 percent and above analysts' forecasts, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. Cotton planting in India, the world's biggest producer of the fibre, is likely to rise by 15 percent in the 2017/18 marketing season to a three-year high as farmers switch away from other crops, likely boosting cotton production and exports. Higher output in India could kill a rally that pushed global cotton prices to their highest in three years this month. "This year farmers received higher prices, so they are going to raise the area under cotton. We are expecting around a 15 percent increase," said Mekala Chockalingam, chairman of the state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), the biggest cotton buyer in the country. Domestic cotton prices rose 19 percent from a year ago to 41,300 rupees ($639) per 356 kg candy, following the rally in overseas prices. A candy is a traditional measure of mass in India. A 15 percent rise in crop area would lift India's cotton planting to around million hectares (29.9 million acres) in the marketing year starting on Oct. 1, highest since the 2014/15 year. Most Indian farmers start planting cotton - a crop that requires lots of moisture - with the onset of monsoon rains in June, although some with irrigated fields start as early as May. India looks likely to receive above average monsoon rainfall as concern over the El Nino weather condition has eased, the chief of India's weather office said. Sowing of cotton has begun on a strong note in the key growing regions of North India such as Punjab and Haryana, and Southern Karnataka, for the season. Buoyed by the high prevailing prices, farmers are seen bringing in a larger area under the fibre crop and the seed industry expects acreages this year to increase by up to a fifth over the previous year. Ashwani Jhamb, Director, Indian Cotton Association (ICA), said the overall cotton acreage will increase on favourable price conditions. But there will be a sharp surge in cotton cultivation in Punjab, where farmers are shifting from paddy, arhar (black gram) guar and partly from maize. The government has set a target of 4 lakh hectares of area in Punjab, as against 2.65 lakh hectares witnessed last year," said Jhamb. Last year, North India s total acreage was about 12 lakh hectares, out of which Haryana had nearly 5 lakh hectares under cotton. Experts see Haryana and Punjab showing an increasein acreages this year, while Rajasthan may report a modest rise in the cotton area from last year's 4.42 lakh hectares. Cotton prices are ruling at around Rs. 41,800 per candy (each of 356 kg), while raw cotton prices are hovering between Rs. 5,375-5,600 per 100 kg. Prices have stayed firm during most of the season on steady demand. Date : Monday, May 15, 2017 URL : Page No - 8

9 Date : Monday, May 15, 2017 URL : Page No - 9