Item Open High Low Close % Cng OI Comments DAILY MARKET LEVEL

Transcription

1 1-Jan-16

2 Item Open High Low Close % Cng OI Comments Precious Metals Gold Silver Gold $ Silver $ Base Metal Alum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc LME Alum LME Copper LME Lead LME Nickel LME Zinc Precious Metals Gold was steady but poised to mark its third straight annual loss, ahead of what is likely to be another tough year with the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates and dollar strength. Largely influenced by U.S. monetary policy and dollar flows, the price of gold has fallen about 10 percent in 2015 as some investors sold the precious metal to buy assets that pay a yield, such as equities. Base Metal Base metals prices ended with losses where copper and zinc lost a quarter of their value in 2015 while nickel fell by more than 40 percent as slowing growth in top consumer China, a supply overhang and a strong dollar hammered industrial metals. Energy Crude Nat. Gas Crude $ Nat. Gas $ Energy Crude oil gained but fell for the year after a race to pump by Middle East crude producers and U.S. shale oil drillers created an unprecedented global glut that may take through 2016 to clear. Natural gas held on to sharp gains, the last trading day of the year, after data showed U.S. natural gas supplies in storage fell more than expected last week. DAILY MARKET LEVEL COMMODITIES GOLD SILVER CRUDE COPPER ZINC NICKEL GOLD $ SILVER $ CLOSE RESISTANCE P. POINT SUPPORT OI OI (%) GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P CAC DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE

3 GOLD Gold trading range for the day is Gold was steady but poised to mark its third straight annual loss, ahead of what is likely to be another tough year with the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates Largely influenced by U.S. monetary policy and dollar flows, the price of gold has fallen about 10 percent in SPDR gold trust holdings dropped by 0.18% i.e tonnes to tonnes from tonnes. Speculative short positions on COMEX gold contracts are close to an all-time high. SELL GOLD SL TGT MCX Gold settled down -0.2% at settled down this was the third year in a row gold prices were lower despite ultra-easy U.S. monetary policy. There was little reaction to another round of downbeat U.S. economic data, as most traders were away from their desks getting ready for New Year celebrations. With the first U.S. rate hike since 2006 out of the way, investors are now focusing on the pace of future rate increases. The Fed, from its forecasts, is anticipating four rate hikes next year. Rising interest rates historically have been bad news for gold, which can't compete with the higher interest rates offered by other assets. Other fundamentals were not supportive either. Assets of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were near a seven-year low while short positions on COMEX gold contracts were close to a record high. A bearish outlook for oil could also pile pressure on gold. Meanwhile most investment banks predict that gold will fall below $1,000 an ounce, probably in the early months of next year. A second interest rate rise would bring home the reality of monetary policy tightening, while the dollar would surge from its already historically high levels. Inflation, another key gold hedge, is likely to stay depressed as oil prices tumble. While premiums for gold in India were higher this week because the holidays were restricting imports, Gold Premium was assessed at a $1.75/oz premium to the London price. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.57% to settled at 6265 while prices down -51 rupee, now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 25012, a move above could see prices testing SILVER Silver trading range for the day is Silver prices struggled for direction in quiet trade, as volumes were thin ahead of the New Year holiday. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose sharply last week, a potential signal the job market was losing steam Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.30% i.e tonnes to tonnes from tonnes. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.8% to settle at BUY SILVER MAR ABV SL BELOW TGT MCX (BTST) Silver settled down -0.27% at tracking weakness from Comex Silver which traded in the range to settled at $13.84 a troy ounce with Silver is on track to post an annual decline of nearly 11% in 2015 as the looming interest rate hike likely dominated all precious metals in 2015, including silver. When the Fed finally did increase interest rates earlier this month, bullion dropped to fresh multi-year lows. High interest rates make bullion, which doesn't pay anything and has storage costs, relatively less attractive compared to other yield-bearing securities. Additional interest rate hikes in the coming quarters could keep a lid on silver prices. In addition to this, the strength of the US economy, which has been fueling the US dollar's rise as compared to other major currencies, will also weigh on silver. Market believe that no other commodity will come under greater pressure in 2016 from a combination of higher interest rates and greenback appreciation. However, the past 4.5 years have seen this precious/industrial metal trend sharply lower and lose over two-thirds of its value. In 2015 silver prices dropped below $14.00, and it appears there is still more downside price potential in the coming months. The longer-term monthly continuation chart for nearby silver futures shows strong chart support does not show up until around the $10.00 area. For the bulls to gain some significant longer-term technical strength they would have to push prices back up to the $18.00 level, which would break the longer-term price downtrend in the silver market. Technically market is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 33519, a move above couldseeprices testing

4 CRUDE Crudeoil trading range for the day is Crude oil gained on short-covering and buying support in a thinly traded market ahead of the New Year holiday. But prices fell for the year after a race to pump by Middle East crude producers and U.S. shale oil drillers created an unprecedented global glut. U.S. energy firms cut oil rigs for a sixth week in the last seven, data showed, a sign drillers were still waiting for higher prices before returning to the well pad. The United States also took a historic move in repealing a 40- year ban on U.S. crude exports to countries outside Canada, acknowledging the industry's growth. BUY CRUDE OIL 2450 SL 2410 TGT MCX Crudeoil settled up 2.09% at 2493 recovered trimming brutal losses that saw prices drop to 6-year lows in December. With Saudi Arabia and OPEC stubbornly pumping oil despite the global supply glut, market expectation say crude oil prices are likely to remain unusually low in 2016 as stockyards are brimming with crude oil here in the US. Crude still headed for a second year of steep declines after a race to pump by Middle East crude producers and U.S. shale oil drillers created an unprecedented global glut that may take through 2016 to clear. Global oil benchmark Brent and U.S. crude's WTI futures were on track finish 2015 down more than 30 percent after another year that showed the helplessness of Saudi Arabia and others in the once-powerful Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to support oil prices. With the U.S. shale industry, meanwhile, surprised the world again with its ability to survive rock-bottom crude prices, churning out more supply than thought, even as the sell-off inoilslashedbytwo- thirds the number of drilling rigs in the country from a year ago. The United States also took a historic move in repealing a 40-year ban on U.S. crude exports to countries outside Canada, acknowledging the industry's growth. In economic news yesterday, Chicago-area business unexpectedly saw a continued contraction in the month of December, according to a report released by MNI Indicators on Thursday. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.1% to settled at while prices up 51 rupee, now Crudeoil is getting support at 2431 and below same could see a test of 2370 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 2533, a move above could see prices testing NAT.GAS Naturalgas trading range for the day is Natural gas gained on the last trading day of the year, after data showed U.S. natural gas supplies in storage fell. EIA said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended December 25 fell by 58 billion cubic feet. Trading volumes were expected to remain light, reducing liquidity in the market which could result in exaggerated moves. Despite recent gains, prices of the fuel are still down nearly 20% so far this year, as weak demand and healthy stockpiles weighed. BUY NAT GAS 152 SL 147 TGT MCX Naturalgas settled up 5.62% at held on to sharp gains on Thursday, the last trading day of the year, after data showed U.S. natural gas supplies in storage fell more than expected last week. Trading volumes where expected to remain light, reducing liquidity in the market which could result in exaggerated moves. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended December 25 fell by 58bcf, broadly in line with expectations for a decline of 57 billion. That compared with a drawdown of 32bcf in the prior week, 26bcf in the same week last year, while the five-year average change for the week is a drawdown of 98bcf. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at trillion cubic feet, 14.2% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 12.0% above the five-year average for this time of year. A day earlier, natural gas tanked 15.6 cents, or 6.58%, as updated weather forecasting models predicted that chilly winter conditions across the U.S. Midwest and Northeast are not expected to last for more than a week. Natural gas typically rises ahead of the winter as colder weather sparks heating demand, yet an unusually mild start to winter due to the El Niño weather phenomenon has limited the amount of heating days. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.77% to settled at 6262 while prices up 8.3 rupee, now Naturalgas is getting support at and below same could see a test of 146 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 159.3, a move above could see prices testing

5 COPPER Copper trading range for the day is Copper dropped as slowing growth in China, a supply overhang and a strong dollar hammered industrial metals. In addition to the decision to go ahead with deeper production cuts, major Chinese copper smelters have announced to cut sales of spot copper by a minimum of 200,000 tons Goldman Sachs in a recent report forecast copper at $4,500 at the end of Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at mt that is down by -750mt. BUY COPPER 312 SL 309 TGT MCX Copper settled down -0.91% at fell ending a dismal year as industrial metals were battered by a toxic mix of oversupply and concern over demand from China. Outlook still remain weak for in 2016, with the oversupply expected to continue and the macroeconomic picture still uncertain. Among other factors, commodity prices have been hit by a stronger dollar, and few economists expect the greenback to weaken in any meaningful way. On Thursday, the London Metal Exchange s three-month copper contract was down 0.5% at $4, a metric ton in midmorning European trade. Other base metals were mixed. Copper has lost about a quarter of its value this year. Among other base metals, nickel has lost 42%, zinc is down 25% while aluminum fell 18% over the year. Worries about the health of the Chinese economy will continue to roil metals markets in The country is the biggest source of global demand for metals, accounting for nearly half of total global zinc consumption, 45% of global copper consumption and 40% of lead production. Market participants will also be watching the U.S. Federal Reserve for the effects of higher interest rates on the dollar. The gyrations of the U.S. currency usually affect commodities, which are mainly priced in the greenback. When the dollar strengthens, commodities become more expensive for holders of other currencies. Today trading volumes are expected to remain light in the final few days of the year, reducing liquidity inthemarket. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.45% to settled at 17688, now Copper is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 318.1, a move above could see prices testing ZINC Zinc trading range for the day is Zinc prices dropped tracking weakness in other base metals as trading volumes remained light, reducing liquidity in the market which could result in exaggerated moves. Demand is likely to shrink as an increasing number of downstream producers will suspend production due to the Chinese New Year holiday in Zinc daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 2740 tonnes. Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at mt that is down by -1575mt. BUY ZINC 105 SL 103 TGT MCX Zinc settled down -1.99% at with Zinc futures lost around a quarter of their value this year as a stronger dollar, China's slowing growth and a lack of supply-side response hammered base metals. Looking ahead, the worst may be over for some of the products as demand is stabilising and producers are cutting output. Market expect much respite for copper in 2016, with the oversupply expected to continue and the macroeconomic picture still uncertain. Among other factors, commodity prices have been hit by a stronger dollar, and few economists expect the greenback to weaken in any meaningful way. Worries about the health of the Chinese economy will continue to roil metals markets in The country is the biggest source of global demand for metals, accounting for nearly half of total global zinc consumption, 45% of global copper consumption and 40% of lead production. Market participants will also be watching the U.S. Federal Reserve for the effects of higher interest rates on the dollar. The gyrations of the U.S. currency usually affect commodities, which are mainly priced in the greenback. When the dollar strengthens, commodities become more expensive for holders of other currencies. The Fed s expected rate rises next year may also further sap demand for metals, as the monetary move hurts developing economies, like India and China, analysts say. Investors withdrew a net $500 billion from emerging markets in 2015, the first annual outflow in decades. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 73.9% to settled at 3052 while prices down rupee, now Zinc is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 107.8, a move above could see prices testing

6 NICKEL Nickel trading range for the day is Nickel prices ended with gains tracking gains in LME prices by over 1 percent after drop in daily LME stocks. Stocks of nickel in LME-approved warehouses at 441,294 tonnes are up more than 10 percent since Dec 8. Nickel daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 880 tonnes. Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at mt that is down by -3408mt. BUY NICKEL 575 SL 565 TGT MCX Nickel settled up 0.15% at 582 on last trading day while nickel prices tumbled more than 42 percent this last year as a stronger dollar, took a beating with falling iron ore demand. Nickel is largely used in stainless steel, and in gas turbines and some chemical plants. Investors are hoping the worst is over for base metals. But some fund managers expect further losses in 2016 before miners make significant output cuts to offset slowing demand growth. While Worries about the health of the Chinese economy will continue to roil metals markets in The country is the biggest source of global demand for metals, accounting for nearly half of total global zinc consumption, 45% of global copper consumption and 40% of lead production. Now Market participants will also be watching the U.S. Federal Reserve for the effects of higher interest rates on the dollar. The gyrations of the U.S. currency usually affect commodities, which are mainly priced in the greenback. When the dollar strengthens, commodities become more expensive for holders of other currencies. The Fed s expected rate rises next year may also further sap demand for metals, as the monetary move hurts developing economies, like India and China, analysts say. Investors withdrew a net $500 billion from emerging markets in 2015, the first annual outflow in decades. That has hurt local currencies as capital moves away in search of yield, making commodities more expensive. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 68.01% to settled at while prices up 0.9 rupee, now Nickel is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 588.3, a move above could see prices testing ALUMINIUM Aluminium trading range for the day is Aluminium prices ended with losses on concern about market surpluses. Trading volumes remained light, reducing liquidity in the market which could result in exaggerated moves. Aluminum daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 1306 tonnes. Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at mt that is down by -5675mt. BUY ALUMINIUM 99 SL TGT MCX Aluminium settled down -1.96% at on concern about market surpluses while in 2016 prices may get some support as worries about tighter supplies to come capped losses. Worries about the health of the Chinese economy will continue to roil metals markets in Market participants will also be watching the U.S. Federal Reserve for the effects of higher interest rates on the dollar. The gyrations of the U.S. currency usually affect commodities, which are mainly priced in the greenback. When the dollar strengthens, commodities become more expensive for holders of other currencies. The Fed s expected rate rises next year may also further sap demand for metals, as the monetary move hurts developing economies, like India and China, analysts say. Investors withdrew a net $500 billion from emerging markets in 2015, the first annual outflow in decades. That has hurt local currencies as capital moves away in search of yield, making commodities more expensive. Now Investors are hoping the worst is over for base metals. But some fund managers and analysts expect further losses in 2016 before miners make significant output cuts to offset slowing demand growth. Today trading volumes are expected to remain light in the final few days of the year, reducing liquidity in the market. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 57.91% to settled at 4930 while prices down -2 rupee, now Aluminium is getting support at 99.3 and below same could see a test of 98.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 101.5, a move above could see prices testing

7 ECONOMICAL DATA DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous All Day EUR Bank Holiday All Day USD Bank Holiday 0 0 0:0 0 0 Fri KING OF MARKET COMMODITIES GOLD SILVER CRUDE COPPER ZINC NICKEL GOLD $ SILVER $ CLOSE RESISTANCE P. POINT SUPPORT NEWS YOU CAN USE An indicator of future home sales unexpectedly declined in November, indicating the third decline in the last four months. The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index fell 0.9 percent in November. Economists had expected an increase for the month. The NAR said that rising home prices and limited home availability contributed to the decline. Pending home sales measure signed real estate contracts. Contracts are typically signed a month or two prior to the closing of the sale, making pending home sales a leading indicator for home sales measures. Warmer weather in the Northeast failed to get many potential homebuyers to sign on the dotted line. Northeast pending home sales were down 3.5 percent, while sales fell off 5.5 percent in the West. "Home prices rising too sharply in several markets, mixed signs of an economy losing momentum and waning supply levels have acted as headwinds in recent months despite low mortgage rates and solid job gains," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. "While feedback from Realtors continues to suggest healthy levels of buyer interest, available listings that are move-in ready and in affordable price ranges remain hard to come by for many would-be buyers." After reporting a moderate decrease in consumer confidence in the previous month, the Conference Board released a report showing that its U.S. consumer confidence index rose by more than expected in the month of December. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index climbed to 96.5 in December from an upwardly revised 92.6 in November. Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to rise to 93.5 from the 90.4 originally reported for the previous month. Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, said, "As 2015 draws to a close, consumers' assessment of the current state of the economy remains positive, particularly their assessment of the job market." "Looking ahead to 2016, consumers are expecting little change in both business conditions and the labor market," she added. "Expectations regarding their financial outlook are mixed, but the optimists continue to outweigh the pessimists." The report said the present situation index increased to in December from in the previous month. Consumers saying business conditions are "good" increased to 27.3 percent in December from 25.0 percent in November, although those saying business conditions are "bad" also rose to 19.8 percent from 16.9 percent to.

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