24 June Microsec Commerze Ltd. Archan Singha: June 24, 2013

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1 24 June 2013 Microsec Commerze Ltd

2 Gold and Silver Gold fell below the $1,300-an-ounce mark while July silver contract fell to a 33-month low today. The falling spree was fueled by Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke s remarks that the central bank might begin pulling back its bond buying program if the US economy continued to improve as per the bank s estimates. Gold prices continued to fall on Bernanke s comments that Fed is likely to slow the pace of the central bank s bond purchases later this year and bring them to a halt around mid-2014.silver tumbled below $20 to trade at as precious metals traded on a weak note along with industrial metals, after lackluster Chinese data spooked the markets. Industrial metals prices fell to its lowest level in 20 months; hit by further evidence that the economy of top metals consumer China is slowing down and the U.S. Federal Reserve s stated intention to begin scaling back stimulus measures later this year. CME has increased the margin requirements by 25% on gold trading after prices fell to the lowest since September SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund s holdings fell 0.42 percent to tons on Thursday from tons on Wednesday. Gold and silver futures closed at their lowest levels in more than 2-½ years, a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank could move as early as this year to slow the flow of monetary stimulus to the economy. The dollar advanced to a 2-week high against major currencies on Thursday, and looked likely to extend gains after the Federal Reserve signaled it would begin withdrawing its stimulus programs this year, as US economy improves. The ICE dollar index, which tracks greenback s performance against six rivals, rose to from on late Wednesday in North America, and traded as high as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said US economy was growing fast enough to allow the central bank to trim its $85bn monthly stimulus, with the goal of ending it in mid-2014.the Euro one and the International Monetary Fund said Greece is assured of sufficient international aid next month as long as the country presses ahead with its economic-overhaul program. Gold prices overall will continue to remain downside on stimulus withdrawal concerns and outflows from gold exchange traded funds. However short covering can keep prices in range for the day. (Data Source: Bloomberg / FX Empire). Focus: Commitment of Trades (CFTC/COMEX) Gold COT Report - Futures Large Speculators Commercial Total Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short 166, ,079 17, , , , ,304 Change from Prior Reporting Period -7,244 8, ,833-5,374 1,830 2,936 Traders Small Speculators Long Short Open Interest 37,225 36, ,106 1, ,262 Change from the previous reporting non reportable positions period COT Gold Report - Positions as of Tuesday, June 18, 2013

3 Large Speculators Silver COT Report: Futures Commercial Long Short Spreading Long Short 35,474 31,570 26,937 68,245 74, , Traders Small Speculators Open Interest Total Long Short Long Short 149,891 19,235 17, , , ,716 2,737 3,468 non reportable positions Positions as of: Tuesday, June 18, 2013 SilverSeek.com

4 Key Technical area: Gold closed lower, breaching the previous low of $1322 and achieved our target of $1290. It has been also breached $1300 levels, which is the 50% retracement of the rally from 682 low in 2008 to $1921 high in We currently have a RSI divergence as it has not yet made a new low, however the trend is still bearish. We are now targeting the $1150 levels, which is key Fibo support levels also. The previous low at $1323 should now provide resistance. Silver also had a bad week, closed at $20.08 the next big levels of support is at $17.70 since August 2010, the low before silver took off in an impulsive rally towards $ RSI has confirmed the low by making new low; however market is not yet oversold. BBuul llioonn Commodity Month High Low Close Previous % change 50 Day 200 Day 14 Day Close SMA SMA RSI Gold Spot $1, $1, $1, $1, % $1, $1, Silver Spot $22.06 $19.36 $20.08 $ % $22.21 $ INR/USD Spot $59.97 $57.52 $59.30 $ % $55.78 $ MCX Gold June % 26,960 29, MCX Silver July % 43,725 53, Commodity Month S1 S2 Pivot R1 R2 Trend Gold Silver INR/USD MCX Gold MCX Silver Spot Spot Spot June July BBaassee Meett aal lss LLooccaal llyy Commodity Month High Low Close Previous % 50 Day 200 Day 14 Day Close change SMA SMA RSI MCX Copper June % MCX Nickel % MCX Zinc % MCX Lead % MCX Aluminum %

5 Commodity Month S1 S2 Pivot R1 R2 Trends MCX Copper MCX Nickel MCX Zinc MCX Lead MCX Aluminum June Neutral Neutral Neutral CCrruuddee OOi ill As was the case across commodities (and across asset classes), oil markets suffered under the weight of persistent dollar strength and rising interest rates. Front-month WTI surrendered $2.84/bbl (the largest dollar loss of the year) to settle at $95.40/bbl. Front-month Brent fell $3.97/bbl (also its largest dollar loss for the year) for a $102.15/bbl close. The Brent- WTI spread sunk to $6.75/bbl its lowest closing value since January This morning, with the dollar holding relatively steady, we ve seen some upside creep into the market as participants perhaps contemplate whether last week s moves were overdone and also cover their short positions ahead of the new week. Upward momentum may hold with futures pointing to a recovery in US stocks, although we feel that it will be a relatively slow grind higher for now and in the absence of any significant data flow, very much contingent on a steady or weaker dollar. Key Technical area: Crude is bullish and still trading within the previous range of 4750 to Crude is trading now at 5600 and immediate support is at 5500 and resistance at 5660 and RSI is at neutral zone thus market is set to move higher. The only concern is the Up side Down Hammer formation in the candle stick chart, which indicates indecisiveness in the market As we predicted during last week that Crude is a buy and that has been correct so far we are still bullish in crude, but the condition is crude has to trade above 5550 levels. If it will break that exit the long position, and a close below 5500 will start selling spree.

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