Daily Metal Commentary Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Transcription

1 Daily Metal Commentary Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Today s News Morgan Stanley reports second qtr. Loss of $159 million, worse than estimates. Humphrey Hawkins Testimony continues today. Euro Zone Industrial Orders fell 0.2 percent expected up 1.9. API rise in crude oil stocks pressures NYMEX energy, EIA expected to post a decline of 2 mln bl. Wage hike offer should avert South African Mining strike. LME Copper stocks up 2,975 tonnes this morning, totaling 268,500 tonnes. SPDR Gold Trust holdings were down 2.13 tonnes on Tuesday at tonnes. A slightly higher dollar and a weaker than expected earnings report from Morgan Stanley is negative for the industrial metals this morning. Silver, platinum and palladium are the weak links this morning and that should be how the session plays out. The gold/silver ratio is ready for a minor rebound as support at the should slow the drop for a moment. A rally back toward 71:1 is a sale. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke will testify for a second day before the House Financial Services Committee on Monetary Policy and the economy. The keywords taken from yesterday s testimony were all FOMC participants expect inflation to remain subdued for the next two years and the short end of the yield curve will remain at very low levels for an extended period of time. A settle above GCQ is bullish and will accelerate gold to the upside and potentially challenge the and significant highs. September silver needs to settle above to get neutral/bullish and a settle above is outright bullish. SPDR Gold Trust holdings fell 2.13 tonnes on Tuesday, now totaling 1, tonnes. LME Copper stocks were up 2,975 tonnes this morning, total at 268,500 tonnes, U.S. economic data and earnings have been strong, they have been the reason copper is pushing toward This morning s trade is dependent on the equity market, longs should be careful against this level Page 1 of

2 Daily August Gold Page 2 of

3 Daily September Silver Page 3 of

4 Weekly Palladium Page 4 of

5 Weekly High Grade Copper Chart Page 5 of

6 Previous Day's Activity, Tuesday, July 21 Futures Settle Net Chg Pct Vol Open Int. GCQ , ,335 GCZ , ,075 SIU ,711 55,263 HGU ,740 76,202 PLV ,761 21,411 PAU ,390 London A.M. Fixes $US Euro Gold $ Silver $ Platinum $1, Palladium $ Commitments of Traders - Futures and Options Non-Commercial Commercial Non-Reportable Position Change Position Change Position Change Gold 160,298-10, ,943 14,495 25,646-3,731 Silver 21,939-4,481-36,923 3,998 14, Copper -20, , Platinum 9, ,338 1,385 1, Palladium 7, ,939 1, Page 6 of

7 Comex Warehouse Stocks Total Troy Daily Net Oz. Chg. LME Warehouse Stocks Daily Net Tonnes Chg. Gold 8,911, Aluminium 4,550, Silver 118,456,731-3,891 Nickel 107, Copper 58, Copper 268,500 2,075 Platinum 2,720-1 Zinc 353, Palladium 4,316-1 World Official Gold Holdings (GFMS) Country/Organization Gold (Tonnes) United States Germany IMF France Italy 2451 SPDR Gold Trust China 1054 Switzerland Japan Page 7 of

8 Important Dates DATE TIME COUNTRY INDICATOR / EVENT 7/22/2009 NA US Humphrey Hawkins Testimony 7/22/2009 9:00 am US Housing Price Index 7/22/2009 9:35 am US Weekly EIA Energy Stocks 7/23/2009 7:30 am US Weekly Jobless Claims 7/23/2009 NA US Refunding Announcement 7/24/2009 8:45 am US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 7/27/2009 9:00 am US New Home Sales 7/27/ :00 am US Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing 7/28/2009 9:00 am US Consumer Confidence 7/28/2009 NA US Option Expiration for August Metals 7/29/2009 7:30 am US Advance Durable Goods 7/29/2009 9:35 am US Weekly EIA Energy Stocks 7/29/2009 NA US Last Trading Day for July Metals 7/30/2009 7:30 am US Weekly Jobless Claims 7/31/2009 NA US First Notice Day for August Metals 7/31/2009 7:30 am US Employment Cost Index 7/31/2009 7:30 am US 2 nd Quarter GDP 7/31/2009 9:00 am US Chicago NAPM Regards, Tony Raia Sr. VP Linn Group Metals Trading Strategies Toll Free & REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF THE LINN GROUP, INC.. THE INFORMATION REFLECTED HEREIN IS DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE; HOWEVER, THIS INFORMATION IS NOT GUARANTEED AS TO IT ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS. OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THIS MATERIAL AND ANY VIEW EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED IN ANY WAY AS AN INDUCEMENT TO BUY OR SELL COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS. THE LINN GROUP AND ITS OFFICERS, DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES AND AFFILIATES MAY TAKE POSITIONS FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS IN CONTRACTS REFERRED TO HEREIN. TRADING FUTURES INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS. DO NOT DUPLICATE. Page 8 of