J UNE 7, INDEX LAST CHANGE % CHANGE ASIA/PACIFC. Nikkei , % Hang Seng 31, %
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1 The dollar weakened this morning against most of its major peers on G-7 summit speculation and the euro has extended its recent monetary policy backed rally. European and Asian shares advanced and U.S. stock index futures flatten after yesterday s rally. Aussie$ declined 0.3% in overnight trading following a 1.25% weekly advance on the back of stronger than anticipated 1Q GDP. A weaker than expected trade surplus is being pointed to as the cause for the decline (A$997mio vs A$1bln expected), but there is also a component of short term profit taking and mean reversion at play. Elsewhere, risk is trading well which should support AUD in the near term. AUD/USD traders will look to sell rallies near.7675 targeting USD/CAD rallied on the news of the White House s newly proposed economic penalties against Canada. The pair fell 2 big figures during yesterday s trading, helped by a weaker dollar and CAD/MXN flow from NAFTA headlines. Traders will likely keep positioning light ahead of major trade developments. Support levels to watch include and , while topside will be the level to watch ahead of the YTD high of Yen moved in a quiet overnight range despite a bid in risk assets. Traders will now look towards US equities and yields which have continued to support USDJPY. FX implied vol has come off across the board as headlines concerning Italy relent and realized vol underperforms. Traders should expect a pickup in risk aversion as the G-7 conference approaches. INDEX LAST CHANGE % CHANGE ASIA/PACIFC Nikkei , % Hang Seng 31, % S&P ASX 200 6, % Kospi 2, % Shanghai Comp 3, % EUROPE Euro Stoxx 3, % CAC 40 5, % DAX 12, % IBEX 35 9, % AMERICAS Dow Jones 25, % S&P 500 2, % NASDAQ 7, % Mex. Bolsa IPC 45, % Bovespa 76, %
2 COMMODITIES LAST CHANGE % CHANGE PRECIOUS METALS Platinum $ % Gold $1, % ECB speak is dominating the headlines this morning following rumors of QE exit talks. RSI has moved back to neutral territory and momentum indicators are turning bullish (20D-MA) should provide support. Traders risk becoming overextended ahead of next weeks ECB decision which will hold significant weight. The 55-DMA of will be the next level to watch. Good luck Silver $ % ENERGY Crude Oil $ % Heating Oil $ % Gasoline $ % Natural Gas $ % INDUSTRIALS Copper $ % Aluminum $2, Nickel $1, % Cable hasn t been a vey compelling currency to trade as many other majors see catalysts around political risks and trade negotiations. Strong PMI data has helped longs who will now target Oscillators aren t going to give traders anything to go on while moves in GBP/USD stay relatively contained. AGRICULTURE Corn $ % Sugar $ % Wheat $ % Cotton $ %
3 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 2.99% 2.84% 2.89% 2.52% 2.09% 1.92% SOVEREIGN DEBT 2-YEAR 10-YEAR 2 s/10 s ASIA/PACIFC Japanese Government Bonds -0.13% 0.05% 17.8 Australian Government Bonds 2.09% 2.84% 74.8 New Zealand Government Bonds % -- South Korea Government Bonds 2.11% 2.75% 64 Singapore Government Bonds 1.95% 2.58% % 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% 1.44% 1.25% 0.50% 0.05% -0.13% -0.09% -0.26% -0.60% Japan Germany U.S. Aussie Italy Spain Portugal 2 year 10 year *Source: Bloomberg EUROPE Germany Government Bonds -0.60% 0.50% France Government Bonds -0.50% 0.83% Italy Government Bonds 1.25% 2.89% Spain Government Bonds -0.26% 1.44% Portugal Government Bonds -0.09% 1.92% AMERICA US Government Bonds 2.52% 2.99% 46.3 Canada Government Bonds 1.94% 2.33% 38.2 Mexico Government Bonds 7.66% 7.81% 14.4 Brazil Government Bonds 8.52% N/A -- Venezuela Government Bonds N/A 31.68% --
4 DATE/TIME MARKET EVENT FORECAST ACTUAL PRIOR Jun-07 02:00 GE-Factory Orders MoM Apr 0.80% -2.50% -0.90% Jun-07 02:00 GE-Factory Orders WDA YoY Apr 3.60% -0.10% 3.10% Jun-07 02:45 FR-Current Account Balance Apr b -1.3b Jun-07 03:30 UK-Halifax House Prices MoM May 1.00% 1.50% -3.10% Jun-07 03:30 UK-Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year May 1.90% 1.90% 2.20% Jun-07 04:00 IT-Retail Sales MoM Apr 0.10% -0.70% -0.20% Jun-07 05:00 EC-GDP SA YoY 1Q F 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% Jun-07 08:30 US-Initial Jobless Claims 220k k Jun-07 08:30 US-Continuing Claims 1735k k Jun-07 09:45 US-Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Jun-07 12:00 US-Household Change in Net Worth 1Q $2076b Jun-07 15:00 US-Consumer Credit Apr $14.000b -- $11.622b Jun-07 19:50 JN-BoP Current Account Balance Apr b b Jun-07 19:50 JN-Trade Balance BoP Basis Apr 742.3b b Jun-07 19:50 JN-GDP SA QoQ 1Q F -0.10% % Jun-07 19:50 JN-GDP Annualized SA QoQ 1Q F -0.40% %
5 DISCLOSURE The material in this document is for informational purposes only and is of general market, economic, and political conditions or statistical summaries of financial data. This material should not be construed as legal, accounting, tax, investment, trading or other professional advice and should not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. This document does not constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell a particular financial asset or a commitment to enter into any transaction. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable at the time of publication, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness, and it should not be relied upon as such. First Republic Bank and its affiliates do not assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Actual results will vary, and may be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. Recipients of this material should carefully consider any risks involved. This document may not be reproduced or circulated without our written authority. First Republic Foreign Exchange is a division of First Republic Bank. Foreign Exchange transactions are not FDIC insured, are not bank guaranteed, and may lose value.
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