Metals & Energy Aug. 10, 2016

Transcription

1 Market synopsis Precious Metals Base metals High Low Close %Chg OI High Low Close %Chg OI MCX MCX (Rs/kg) Gold(Oct) (Rs/1 gm) 31,297 31,62 31, ,25 Alum.(Aug) (.1) 2,78 Silver(Sept) (Rs/kg) 46,45 45,911 46, ,14 Copper(Aug) (.8) 29,29 Gold Mini (Rs/1 gm) 31,165 3,891 31, ,634 Lead(Aug) ,559 Silver Mini (Rs/kg) 46,44 45,924 46, ,997 Nickel(Aug) ,272 COMEX (US$/oz) Zinc(Aug) (.4) 14,26 Gold(Oct) 1, , , ,39 COMEX (US$/Ib) Silver(Sept) ,278 Copper (.7) 188,89 Ratios LME Inventory levels in US$ in US$ Ratio Base Metals Close Prev close %Chg Gold v/s Oil 1, Aluminum 2,256,4 2,259,325 (.1) Gold v/s Silver 1, Copper 25,35 25,25.2 Lead 188,1 188,175 (.) Energy Nickel 371, ,228.5 MCX High Low Close %Chg OI Zinc 429, ,425 (.) Cr. oil(aug) (Rs/bbl) 2,914 2,848 2,862 (1.) 24,568 Currency Nat.gas(Aig) (Rs/mmbtu) (4.5) 11,75 Close Prev close %Chg NYMEX Rs/US$ Cr. oil(sept) (US$/bbl) (.6) 1,842,61 US$/EUR Brent Cr. oil (US$/bbl) (.9) 2,197,342 US$/GBP (.3) Nat.gas(Sept) (US$/mmbtu) (4.8) 1,56,733 JPY/US$ (.6) Pivot Levels MCX levels Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Gold 31,457 31,391 31,328 31,273 31,218 31,156 31,89 Silver 46,795 46,642 46,499 46,372 46,245 46,13 45,949 Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Crude oil 2,914 2,895 2,878 2,862 2,846 2,829 2,81 Nat. Gas International levels Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Gold 1, , , ,339. 1, , ,33.44 Silver COMEX Copper Crude oil Br. Crude oil Nat. Gas LME Aluminum 1, ,648. 1, ,642. 1, ,636. 1, LME Copper 4, ,83.5 4, ,779. 4, , ,74.54 LME Nickel 1, , , ,78. 1, ,77.5 1, LME Lead 1, , , ,84.5 1, , , LME Zinc 2, , , ,274. 2, , , A pivot is a level at which the market direction can change for the day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.

2 Precious metals Market news and Technical forecast Gold prices added to gains in early trades today, holding gains from the previous session as the dollar fell, with investors evaluating the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike after a weak U.S. productivity report. Gold prices traded steadily in a quiet trade, as equities worldwide hit their highest level in almost a year dampening the precious metal's appeal as a safe-haven asset, while investors engaged in a search for higher dividends amid a continuing rout in global bond yields. The dollar weakened against major currencies, as investors evaluated the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, with no major new economic indicators due until Friday's retail sales report. The greenback had gained after last Friday's jobs report for July showed better-than-expected employment gains, raising expectations that a further rate increase this year is likely. The holdings of SPDR Gold trust declined to tons, as on August 9, while that of ishares Silver trust increased to 1, tons, as on August 8. Technical outlook: Gold s trend looks sideways to up till support at 312 holds, while on the upside prices may test Silver s trend looks sideways till prices are trading above support at 4628, while on the upside prices may test

3 Energy complex Market news and Technical forecast Oil prices fell by about 1%, extending losses in post-settlement trade after preliminary data showed a surprise U.S. crude stockpile build last week, heightening worries about a global petroleum glut. The market also lost the previous day's upward momentum as speculation fizzled that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers would embark on another round of talks on price cooperation after their failed effort in April. Trade group American Petroleum Institute (API) reported U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 2.1mn barrels during the week to Aug. 5. In separate data issued on Tuesday, EIA said it expected a smaller decline of 7, barrels per day (bpd) in U.S. crude oil production in 216 than the 82,-bpd drop it forecast a month ago. It said an uptick in drilling will lead to more output later this year. Natural gas futures fell for the fourth session in a row, touching a more than 1-week low as forecasts for less hot weather in the days ahead dampened demand expectations for the cooling fuel. Technical outlook: Crude oil s trend looks sideways to up till prices are trading above 2848, while on the upside prices may test Natural gas trend looks down till prices are trading below , while on the downside prices may test

4 Base metals Market news and Technical forecast Copper fell to its lowest in 4-weeks, weighed down by seasonally weak demand in top metals consumer China and concern that Beijing may not cut rates soon. 3-month copper on LME closed down.7% at $4,779 per ton, having hit a low of $4,761, its weakest since July 12. LME nickel closed up.1% at $1,78 per ton. A crackdown on nickel mines in Philippines has lifted prices by more than 2% over the past 2- months and could see further upside in prices. Among other metals, LME aluminum closed unchanged at $1,642 while zinc dipped.2% to $2,274 and lead gained.8% to $1,84.5. Technical outlook: Copper s intra-day trend looks sideways to down with resistance at 32.5 with support at 317, below which prices may test Nickel trend looks sideways with support at , while on the upside resistance holds at and next at 73. Lead trend remains down till prices are trading below , while on the downside prices may test levels. Zinc s trend remains sideways with support at , while on the upside resistance holds at Aluminum s trend looks sideways with support at , while on the upside resistance holds at

5 Metals & Energy Aug. 1, 216 Spreads and Arbitrage Calendar spreads Global Indices Commodity Near month 2nd month Close Prev close Markets Close Prev close %Chg Precious metals Gold (Rs/1 gm) 31,273 31, Sensex 28, ,182.6 (.3) Silver (Rs/kg) 46,372 46,287 1,5 1,122 Nifty 8, , Asia Nikkie 16, , Base metals Hang Seng 22, ,494.8 (.1) Alum. (Rs/kg) Shanghai 3,25.7 3,4.3.7 Copper (Rs/kg) Straits Times 2,87.8 2,87.8. Lead (Rs/kg) Nickel (Rs/kg) America Zinc (Rs/kg) Dow Jones 18, , Energy Cr. oil (Rs/bbl) 2,862 2, Europe Nasdaq 5, , Nat.gas (Rs/mmbtu) CAC 4, , DAX 1, , National-International price parity FTSE 6, , MCX COMEX Close* Prev close* INR Arbitrage Gold 31,273 1, Metals & Oil Close Prev close %Chg Silver 46, (46.37) (394.57) Lead - Zinc (31.2) (32.55) (4.1) Copper COMEX Gold - Silver Crude oil 2, Brent - U.S. crude (6.8) *MCX premium/ (discount) COMEX Gold Options (Near month i.e. Sept.) 7 6 Call OI Put OI Near + 1 month i.e. Oct. 8 Call OI Put OI Call OI chg. Call OI chg. Put OI chg. Put OI chg.

6 Economic calendar Date Country / Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous 8-Aug JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) 5: b 773.3b 39.9b CNY Foreign Direct Investment (y-o-y) CNY 6.3% 9.7% CNY Imports (y-o-y) -12.5% -7.% -8.4% CNY Trade Balance $52.31b $47.3b $48.11b CNY Imports (y-o-y) CNY -5.7% 1.1% -2.3% CNY Trade Balance CNY 342.8b b 311.2b JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook CNY Exports (y-o-y) -4.4% -3.5% -4.8% CNY Exports (y-o-y) CNY 2.9% 2.3% 1.3% JPY Bankruptcies (y-o-y) 1: -9.25% -7.4% EUR German IP n.s.a. and w.d.a. (y-o-y) 11:2.5%.5% -.4% EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence 14: Aug CNY Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 7: 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% CNY Producer Price Index (y-o-y) 7: -1.7% -2.% -2.6% GBP GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) 14: GBP GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) 14: GBP GBP Industrial Production (y-o-y) 14: 1.6% 1.4% GBP GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) 14: GBP GBP Manufacturing Production (y-o-y) 14: 1.3% 1.7% GBP GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate 19:3.4%.6% 1-Aug CNY Aggregate Financing CNY 124.b 163.b CNY New Yuan Loans CNY 9.b 138.b JPY Tertiary Industry Index (m-o-m) 1:.3% -.7% USD MBA Mortgage Applications 16:3 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 2: 1413k USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 2: -3262k USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 2: 1152k USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 2: -1123k USD Monthly Budget Statement 23:3 -$124b -$149.2b 11-Aug NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision 2:3 2.% 2.25% USD Continuing Claims 18: 213k 2138k USD Initial Jobless Claims 18: 265k 269k 12-Aug CNY Industrial Production (y-o-y) 7:3 6.2% 6.2% CNY Industrial Production YTD (y-o-y) 7:3 6.% 6.% CNY Retail Sales (y-o-y) 7:3 1.5% 1.6% EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (q-o-q) 11:3.2%.7% EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (y-o-y) 11:3 1.4% 1.6% EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (y-o-y) 11:3 2.8% 1.3% EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) 11:3.3%.3% EUR German Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 11:3.4%.4% EUR Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (y-o-y) 13:3.8% 1.% EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (y-o-y) 14:3 1.6% 1.6% EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (y-o-y) 14:3.4%.5% EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (q-o-q) 14:3.3%.3% USD Advance Retail Sales 18:.4%.6% USD Retail Sales Less Autos 18:.2%.7% USD Retail Sales Control Group 18:.3%.5% USD U. of Mich. 1 Yr. Inflation 19:3 USD Business Inventories 19:3.1%.2%

7 USD U. of Michigan Confidence 19: USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 22:3 Commodity Research Team Pranav Mer Sr. Manager - Research pranav.mer@adityavbirla.com Deepa Shakdwipee Sr. Research Analyst / deepa.shakdwipee@adityabirla.com Sivasubramaniam Palanisamy Sr. Technical Analyst / sivasubramaniam.p@adityabirla.com Sunil Darekar Advisor sunil.darekar@adityabirla.com Bharat Jha Advisor bharat.jha@adityabirla.com Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements. The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither (ABML), its associate group companies, its directors, associates, employees nor any person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of or any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guarantee and does not indicate or guide to future performance. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents in this document are intended for general information purposes only. This document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with making any investment. The investment may not be suited to all the categories of investors. The recipients should therefore obtain your own professional, legal, tax and financial advice and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision., its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time may have various interests/ positions in any of the securities of the Company(ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organisation mentioned in the document or may have other interest with respect of any recommendation and / related information and opinions is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 214. SEBI Reg. No. INH2145