Metals & Energy May 11, 2016

Transcription

1 Market synopsis Precious Metals Base metals High Low Close %Chg OI High Low Close %Chg OI MCX MCX (Rs/kg) Gold(Jun) (Rs/1 gm) 29,864 29,67 29,783 (.1) 1,93 Alum.(May) (.2) 4,738 Silver(July) (Rs/kg) 4,97 4,62 4, ,579 Copper(June) (.4) 27,736 Gold Mini (Rs/1 gm) 29,862 29,622 29,785 (.1) 1,587 Lead(May) ,381 Silver Mini (Rs/kg) 4,929 4,625 4,85.2 9,69 Nickel(May) ,154 COMEX (US$/oz) Zinc(May) ,823 Gold(Jun) 1,272. 1, ,264.8 (.1) 58,797 COMEX (US$/Ib) Silver(July) ,93 Copper (.7) 185,179 Ratios LME Inventory levels in US$ in US$ Ratio Base Metals Close Prev close %Chg Gold v/s Oil 1, Aluminum 2,65,5 2,612,625 (.3) Gold v/s Silver 1, Copper 16,9 159,6.8 Lead 175,35 173,775.9 Energy Nickel 414, ,69. MCX High Low Close %Chg OI Zinc 393, ,3 (.2) Cr. oil(may) (Rs/bbl) 2,974 2,884 2, ,85 Currency Nat.gas(May) (Rs/mmbtu) ,68 Close Prev close %Chg NYMEX Rs/US$ Cr. oil(jun) (US$/bbl) ,74,84 US$/EUR (.1) Brent Cr. oil (US$/bbl) ,166,388 US$/GBP Nat.gas(Jun) (US$/mmbtu) ,73,876 JPY/US$ Pivot Levels MCX levels Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Gold 29,985 29,912 29,843 29,783 29,723 29,655 29,581 Silver 41,64 4,983 4,96 4,839 4,772 4,696 4,614 Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Crude oil 3,39 3,13 2,989 2,968 2,947 2,923 2,897 Nat. Gas International levels Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Gold 1, , , , , , ,254.5 Silver COMEX Copper Crude oil Br. Crude oil Nat. Gas LME Aluminum 1, ,562. 1, ,554. 1, ,546. 1, LME Copper 4, , , ,68. 4, , , LME Nickel 8, ,785. 8, ,71. 8, ,635. 8, LME Lead 1, ,761. 1, ,747. 1, ,733. 1,725.2 LME Zinc 1, , , ,848. 1, , , A pivot is a level at which the market direction can change for the day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.

2 Precious metals Market news and Technical forecast Gold prices fell to a near 2-week low yesterday, after its steepest loss since March in the prior session, as a firm dollar and higher equities curbed appetite for the precious metal. Bullion turned quietly positive in late-trade dealings after falling in five out of the past six sessions, failing to fully benefit from data last week showing that the U.S. economy added the fewest jobs in 7-months in April. Spot gold was up.3% at $1,267.3 per ounce in aftermarket hour trades, after hitting an early low of $1,257.25, it s weakest since April 28. U.S. gold for June delivery closed down.1% at $1,264.8 per ounce. The holdings of SPDR Gold trust increased to , as on May 1, while that of ishares Silver trust declined to 1, tons, as of May 1. The dollar index was up.2%, having hit its highest in nearly 2-weeks in the Asian trading session and extending its rise from a 15-month trough struck on May 3. World stock markets rallied as oil prices climbed and companies reported solid earnings, while the yen again retreated against the dollar. Technical outlook: Gold s intra-trend remains down till prices are trading below 2987, while on the downside prices may test levels. However, on breach above 2987, prices may rally towards Silver s intra-day trend remains down till prices are trading below , while on the downside prices may test 45-4 levels.

3 Energy complex Market news and Technical forecast Brent oil jumped 4%, while U.S. crude closed up more than 2%, after a late burst of buying driven in part by expectations that record U.S. crude inventories would not swell by as much as they have in recent weeks. Crude supply outages in Canada, Nigeria and elsewhere also boosted prices. Brent's gain was its biggest one-day percentage move in a month. However, oil prices pared gains briefly in postsettlement trade after the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, said U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.45mn barrels to record highs of 543.1mn during the week ended May 6. Traders and investors will now be looking out for official inventory data from the U.S. EIA. Wildfires in Canada have shut in more than 1mn barrels per day of production from Alberta's oil sands region. Royal Dutch Shell Plc was the first to resume production in the area on Tuesday, while others looked to restart after more than a week of halted operations. In Nigeria, attacks on oil infrastructure have pushed crude output close to a 22-year low in Africa's largest oil producer - Reuters. Natural gas futures rose sharply, as forecasts for late this week and early next week turned cooler, boosting near-term demand expectations for the heating fuel. Technical outlook: Crude oil s trend looks sideways till prices are trading above support at , while on the upside prices may test Natural gas remains positive till prices are trading above , while on the upside prices may rally towards levels.

4 Base metals Market news and Technical forecast Copper traded steadily alongside the dollar, although prices are expected to retreat further as the market fully digests prospects for weak demand growth in top consumer China. Benchmark copper on LME closed little changed at $4,685 per ton from $4,686 at Monday's close. Earlier on Tuesday, the metal touched $4,672, its lowest since April 12. The sell-off in copper started last week due to a stronger U.S. currency, which makes dollardenominated commodities more expensive for non-u.s. firms, and as weak manufacturing data from China raised doubts about demand. Highlighting the problem are rising stocks of copper in warehouses approved by the LME, which have climbed to 16,9 tons from near 14, tons in early April. Stocks of copper in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange are down from record highs in the middle of March, but at above 31, tons are still up about 75% since the start of 216. Technical outlook: Copper s intra-day trend looks down till prices are trading below , while on the downside prices may test levels. Nickel s trend remains down till prices are trading below , while on the downside prices may test levels. Zinc s trend remains down till prices are trading below , while on the downside prices may test levels. Aluminum s trend remains down till prices are trading below , while on the downside prices may test

5 Metals & Energy May 11, 216 Spreads and Arbitrage Calendar spreads Global Indices Commodity Near month 2nd month Close Prev close Markets Close Prev close %Chg Precious metals Gold (Rs/1 gm) 29,783 29, Sensex 25, , Silver (Rs/kg) 4,839 4, Nifty 7, , Asia Nikkie 16, , Base metals Hang Seng 2, , Alum. (Rs/kg) Shanghai 2, , Copper (Rs/kg) Straits Times 2, ,766.1 (.9) Lead (Rs/kg) Nickel (Rs/kg) America Zinc (Rs/kg) Dow Jones 17, , Energy Cr. oil (Rs/bbl) 2,968 3, Europe Nasdaq 4,89.9 4, Nat.gas (Rs/mmbtu) CAC 4, , DAX 1,45.4 9, National-International price parity FTSE 6, , MCX COMEX Close* Prev close* INR Arbitrage Gold 29,783 1, Metals & Oil Close Prev close %Chg Silver 4, Lead - Zinc (6.2) (6.45) (3.9) Copper COMEX Gold - Silver (.2) Crude oil 2, (9.87) Brent - U.S. crude *MCX premium/ (discount) COMEX Gold Options (Near month i.e. June) 1 Call OI Put OI Call OI chg. Put OI chg. Near + 1 month i.e. July 4 35 Call OI Put OI Call OI chg. Put OI chg. -4

6 Economic calendar Date Country / Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous 8-May CNY Exports (y-o-y) -1.8%.% 12.% CNY Trade Balance $45.56b $4b $29.86b CNY Imports (y-o-y) -1.9% -4.% -8.% CNY Imports (y-o-y) CNY -5.7%.3% -2.% CNY Trade Balance CNY 298b b 194.6b 9-May JPY Consumer Confidence Index 1: EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (y-o-y) 11:3 1.7% -.1%.7% EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence 14: USD Labor Market Conditions Index Change 19: EUR OECD Economic Outlook 1-May CNY Aggregate Financing CNY 234.b CNY New Yuan Loans CNY 137.b CNY Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 7: 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% CNY Producer Price Index (y-o-y) 7: -3.4% -3.7% -4.3% EUR German IP n.s.a. and w.d.a. (y-o-y) 11:3.3% 1.1% 2.% EUR German Trade Balance (euros) 11:3 26b 2.6b 2.2b GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) 14: GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) 14: GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) 14: USD Wholesale Inventories 19:3.1%.1% -.6% 11-May JPY Coincident Index 1: JPY Leading Index 1: GBP Manufacturing Production (y-o-y) 14: -1.9% -1.8% GBP Industrial Production (y-o-y) 14: -.4% -.5% USD MBA Mortgage Applications 16:3 GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate 19:3.3% USD Monthly Budget Statement 23:3 $11b $156.7b 12-May JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) 5:2 96b 425.2b JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook JPY Bankruptcies (y-o-y) 1: % EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (y-o-y) 14:3.%.8% GBP Bank of England Inflation Report 16:3 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision 16:3.5%.5% GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target 16:3 375b 375b USD Initial Jobless Claims 18: 27k 274k USD Continuing Claims 18: 212k 2121k 14-May JPY BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo 9: EUR German Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 11:3 -.1% -.1% EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (q-o-q) 11:3.6%.3% EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (y-o-y) 11:3 1.5% 1.3% EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (y-o-y) 11:3 1.2% 2.1% EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (y-o-y) 14:3 1.6% 1.6% EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (q-o-q) 14:3.6%.6% USD Advance Retail Sales 18:.8% -.3% USD Retail Sales Less Autos 18:.5%.1% USD U. of Michigan Confidence 19: USD U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 19:3 2.8% USD Business Inventories 19:3.2% -.1%

7 USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 22: May CNY Industrial Production (y-o-y) 11: 6.5% 6.8% CNY Industrial Production YTD (y-o-y) 11: 6.1% 5.8% CNY Retail Sales (y-o-y) 11: 1.6% 1.5% CNY Retail Sales YTD (y-o-y) 11: 1.4% 1.3% CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (y-o-y) 11: 11.% 1.7% Commodity Research Team Pranav Mer Sr. Manager - Research pranav.mer@adityavbirla.com Deepa Shakdwipee Sr. Research Analyst / deepa.shakdwipee@adityabirla.com Sivasubramaniam Palanisamy Sr. Technical Analyst / sivasubramaniam.p@adityabirla.com Sunil Darekar Advisor sunil.darekar@adityabirla.com Bharat Jha Advisor bharat.jha@adityabirla.com Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements. The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither (ABML), its associate group companies, its directors, associates, employees nor any person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of or any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guarantee and does not indicate or guide to future performance. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents in this document are intended for general information purposes only. This document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with making any investment. The investment may not be suited to all the categories of investors. The recipients should therefore obtain your own professional, legal, tax and financial advice and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision., its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time may have various interests/ positions in any of the securities of the Company(ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organisation mentioned in the document or may have other interest with respect of any recommendation and / related information and opinions is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 214. SEBI Reg. No. INH2145