Trading Calls for the Day ECONOMICAL DATA DAY TIME ZONE EXP PREV. 1:15pm EUR French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q 21.3B 20.0B

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1 Thursday, February 19, 2015 Open High Low Close % Cng Precious Metals Gold Silver Base Metal Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Round up Gold prices dropped as confusion over Greece's debt negotiations with its European lenders dominated markets. Base metals prices ended with gains as a weaker dollar kept it on track for a second week of gains from last month's more than five year lows, but the start of Lunar New Year next week was likely to curb any rise. China's new home prices may have bottomed and even started to rebound in January after eight months of declines, industry surveys showed. Energy Crude Nat. Gas Currency USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Crude oil gained as a weakened dollar and industry spending cuts offset worries of a supply glut. Rupee settled flat tracking the rise in dollar index on increased risk aversion among global investors amid Greek debt issue. Trading Calls for the Day SELL GOLD SL TGT MCX SELL SILVER SL TGT MCX BUY CRUDE OIL 3120 SL 3080 TGT MCX SELL NAT GAS 172 SL 176 TGT MCX SELL COPPER 360 SL TGT MCX SELL ZINC SL TGT MCX SELL NICKEL 925 SL 940 TGT MCX SELL ALUMINIUM 115 SL TGT MCX ECONOMICAL DATA DAY TIME ZONE EXP PREV Fri 12:00pm EUR French Prelim GDP q/q :30pm EUR German Prelim GDP q/q :30pm EUR German WPI m/m :15pm EUR French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q :30pm EUR Italian Prelim GDP q/q :30pm EUR Flash GDP q/q :30pm EUR Trade Balance 21.3B 20.0B 7:00pm USD Import Prices m/m :30pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment :30pm USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations Global Market $ Index Euro Pound Yen DJ Nasdaq Hang Seng Gold$ Silver$ Crude $

2 MCX Gold MCX Gold 03 APR 2015 Open High Low Close % Cng OI 8705 Volume Resist Resist Resist Support Support Support Gold remains flat as confusion over Greece's debt negotiations with its European lenders dominated markets. Financial markets had been under pressure as euro zone finance ministers were unable to agree with Greece a final statement or a way to continue talks until their next meeting on Monday to extend an international bailout. Gold's sell-off for much of this week, despite the Greek debt crisis, suggests that markets are either expecting an ultimately positive result, or they may be discounting the country's possible exit as a net positive. An interest rates hike by the U.S. central bank, which has kept rates near zero since 2008 to stimulate the U.S. economy, could further strengthen the dollar and in turn hurt demand for bullion, a non-interest-bearing asset. India is likely to remain the world's biggest gold consumer this year after regaining the top spot from China in 2014, driven by robust jewellery demand, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Indian consumer demand for gold jewellery and investment totalled tonnes last year, compared with tonnes by China, according to WGC data. Demand dipped in both countries in 2014 from record levels a year earlier, but Indian demand slid only 14 percent, compared with a much steeper 38 percent fall in China. The two countries accounted for over half of global demand. Global gold demand also hit a five-year low last year as buying of jewellery, coins and bars failed to keep pace with 2013's elevated levels, the WGC said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.73% to settled at 8705, now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 26710, a move above could see prices testing MCX Silver MCX Silver 05 MAR 2015 Open High Low Close % Cng OI 9145 Volume Resist Resist Resist Support Support Support Silver prices remained in the range as European leaders failed to agree on Greece s bailout program after talks in Brussels. Prices rose earlier after more stimulus from the Swedish central bank. The Riksbank lowered its repo rate to minus 0.10 percent from zero and said it will also make policy more expansionary by soon buying 10 billion kronor ($1.2 billion) in government bonds with maturities of one to five years. Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, slumped by 0.9% in December, disappointing forecasts for a 0.4% decline. Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy. Core sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of the government's gross domestic product report. Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of U.S. economic growth. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending February 7 increased by 25,000 to 304,000 from the previous week s revised total of 279,000. The disappointing data scaled back expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising rates from near zero levels as early as June. The U.S. dollar came under broad selling pressure as expectations grew the Federal Reserve would keep its loose monetary policy. Dollar weakness has been fueling the rally in gold as economic uncertainties and speculation on more monetary easing by central banks drive investors to bullion as an alternative investment. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.24% to settled at 9145 while prices down -172 rupee, now Silver is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 37654, a move above could see prices testing

3 MCX Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil 19 FEB 2015 Open 3078 High 3198 Low 3078 Close 3170 % Cng 3.09 OI Volume Resist Resist Resist Support Support Support Crude oil gained as a weakened dollar and industry spending cuts offset worries of a supply glut. U.S. crude stockpiles increased for a fifth week to the highest in more than 30 years, data from the Energy Information Administration show. Rising U.S. supplies contributed to a global surplus that drove futures almost 50 percent lower last year. U.S. crude stockpiles expanded by 4.87 million barrels last week to million, the highest level in weekly records dating back to August 1982, according to the EIA, the U.S. Energy Department s statistical arm. Volatility in the oil market has jumped to the highest level since the financial crisis, with prices swinging in a wide range this month following the near 60 percent crash between June and January. Demand is increasing and there are indications that prices are stabilizing, according to Saudi Arabia s Oil Minister Ali al-naimi. Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-naimi met in Riyadh with Viktor Zubkov, chairman of state-controlled Russian energy giant Gazprom, and discussed cooperation between OPEC and non-opec oil producers. Production rose by 49,000 barrels a day to 9.23 million a day, according to the Energy Department s statistical arm. That s the highest level in weekly data that started in January Saudi Arabia led a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in November to maintain collective output quotas at 30 million barrels a day. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.61% to settled at while prices up 95 rupee, now Crudeoil is getting support at 3100 and below same could see a test of 3029 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3220, a move above could see prices testing MCX Natural Gas MCX Natural Gas 24 FEB 2015 Open High 180 Low Close % Cng OI 8662 Volume Resist Resist Resist Support Support Support Natural gas prices dropped after data showed that U.S. natural gas supplies fell less than forecast last week, underlining concerns over weak demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended February 6 fell by 160 billion cubic feet, below expectations for a decline of 168 billion. Natural gas storage in the U.S. fell by 115 billion cubic feet in the preceding week. Inventories fell by 234 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a drop of 178 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at trillion cubic feet. Stocks were 542 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 11 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of trillion cubic feet for this time of year. A day earlier, natural gas surged 12.0 cents, or 4.48%, to settle at $2.797 after updated weather forecasting models pointed to frigid weather spanning from the Great Lakes-region to the Northeast through February 19. Bullish speculators are betting on the cold weather boosting winter demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Despite recent gains, natural gas prices are likely to remain vulnerable amid speculation supplies are more than ample to meet demand. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 23.48% to settled at 8662 while prices down -5.5 rupee, now Naturalgas is getting support at 164 and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 177.1, a move above could see prices testing

4 MCX Copper MCX Copper Open 351 High Low Close % Cng 1.85 OI Volume Resist Resist Resist Support Support Support Copper prices gained as investors cheered reports of a cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that a cease fire deal with Ukraine starting February 15 had been reached, following months of violence. Meanwhile, ongoing expectations for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates by mid-2015 capped gains. Prices have been under pressure in recent sessions amid the growing possibility of an earlier Fed rate hike, following last week's robust U.S. jobs report, which saw market players bring forward expectations for the first rate increase to June. Market sentiment remained subdued after talks between Greece and European Union officials ended without an agreement, though both sides said there was still hope for a deal. Further talks are due to be held next Monday. Greece s current bailout is due to expire on February 28 and the new Greek government does not want it extended, fuelling fears over a conflict with its creditors which could trigger the country s exit from the euro zone. Athens has proposed an overhaul of 30% of its massive bailout deal, replacing it with a 10 point plan of economic reforms. However, Greece s creditors in the EU are insisting that the country must stick to the terms of the original bailout agreement. China's new home prices may have bottomed and even started to rebound in January after eight months of declines, industry surveys showed, fuelling hopes that official data due on Tuesday will confirm a recovery in the property market. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.13% to settled at 13146, now Copper is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 361.3, a move above could see prices testing MCX Nickel MCX Nickel Open High Low Close % Cng OI 6540 Volume Resist Resist Resist Support Support Support Nickel settled flat by -0.09% at as major economic indicators from the US were sluggish. Greece and Germany made a compromise on the debt issue, and the European Central Bank ELA for Greece to EUR 65 billion. The latest statistics released by the US Department of Commerce (DOC) indicates that the country s Nickel scrap exports were down by 26% in December 14 when compared with the previous month. However, the cumulative exports during the entire year 2014 soared higher by over 18%.The nickel scrap exports during December 14 totaled 1,736 tons, down 26% when compared with the exports during November last year. The US Nickel scrap exports during November 2014 had totaled 2,346 tons. The sharp fall in Nickel prices accounted for the sharp decline in Nickel scrap exports from the country during the month. The US Nickel scrap exports totaled 30,758 tons during the entire year The yearly exports grew by 18.3% over the previous year. The country s Nickel scrap exports had totaled 26,000 during LME nickel prices opened at USD 14,710/mt, then fell to USD 14,650/mt. During European trading hours, LME nickel prices gained ground but dropped later, dipping to as low as USD 14,545/mt, then fluctuated between USD 14,600-14,700/mt. During US trading hours, LME nickel prices rose with rebounding crude prices and closing at USD 14,745/mt, up 0.07%. Trading volumes decreased 1,083 to 3,817 lots, and total positions increased 127 to 216,630. LME nickel inventories fell 708 to 425,310 mt. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 17.69% to settled at 6540, now Nickel is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 922.3, a move above could see prices testing

5 MCX Zinc MCX Zinc Open High Low Close % Cng 0.72 OI 4162 Volume Resist Resist Resist Support Support Support Zinc settled up 0.72% at as support seen with upbeat earnings reports from US companies and rising crude prices. Major economic indicators from the US were sluggish. However, Greece entered an agreement with Germany on the debt issue, and Ukraine signed cease-fire agreement, causing risk aversion to ease. Greece agreed on Thursday to talk to its creditors about the way out of its hated international bailout in a political climb down that could prevent its new leftist-led government running out of money as early as next month. Trading in China s domestic zinc market came to a standstill as market players exit the market for the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday. Market supply fell due to tight transportation capacity during the holiday period, while downstream pre-holiday stock replenishment was also limited. Domestic zinc alloy producers in Henan, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang also closed production for the holiday, and tight liquidity conditions cast a shadow over their outlook for post-holiday market. LME zinc prices opened at USD 2,117/mt, then climbed to USD 2,140-2,150/mt, and closed at USD 2,141/mt, up USD 24.5/mt or 0.16%. Trading volumes were down 1,852 to 7,399 lots, and total positions increased 823 to 291,327. LME zinc inventories fell 4,100 to 598,575 mt. Q4 GDP from Germany, Italy, France and Euro zone will be announced today, which is expected to remain flat on the quarterly basis. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.53% to settled at 4162 while prices up 0.95 rupee, now Zinc is getting support at 132 and below same could see a test of 131 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 133.8, a move above could see prices testing MCX Aluminium MCX Aluminium Open High Low Close % Cng 0.75 OI 2841 Volume 6215 Resist Resist Resist Support Support Support Aluminium settled up 0.75% at 114 as the US dollar lost ground as US initial jobless claims and retail sales point to weakness in US economy. Russia, France and Germany reached a ceasefire deal with Ukraine, easing tensions in the region. US retail sales contracted 0.8% last month and undershot forecasts. This marks a second straight month of fall after falling 0.9% in December. US initial jobless claims were 304,000 last week, worse than expected. Continuing claims for US unemployment benefits were 2.35 million on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ending January 31. The US dollar index fell following disappointing employment figures. Anybody looking at China's vast aluminium sector may be struck by a sense of deja vu, as the issues of last year appear set for a repeat performance in The sector is still plagued by overcapacity and poor profitability, but perhaps the biggest concern is the apparent lack of any willingness to deal with the issues. China produced about 27.5 million tonnes of aluminium last year. While Chinese aluminium prices were dragged lower in the second half by the general malaise of commodities, this was exacerbated by the recommissioning of idled smelters. Q4 GDP from Germany, Italy, France and Euro zone will be announced today, which is expected to remain flat on the quarterly basis. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by % to settled at 2841 while prices up 0.85 rupee, now Aluminium is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 114.6, a move above could see prices testing

6 Spread View Ratio Trading Commodity MCX GOLD APR-JUN MCX SILVER MAR-MAY MCX CRUDEOIL FEB-MAR MCX NATURALGAS FEB-MAR MCX ZINC FEB-MAR MCX NICKEL FEB-MAR MCX LEAD FEB-MAR Spread Commodity Gold Silver ratio Gold Crude ratio Gold Copper ratio Silver Crude ratio Silver Copper ratio Crude Natural Gas ratio Lead Zinc ratio Ratio MCX ALUMINIUM FEB-MAR 1.00 MCX CARDAMOM MAR-APR LME Stock (Tons) NCDEX DHANIYA APR-MAY Commodity Change Stock NCDEX JEERAUNJHA MAR-APR Copper NCDEX TMCFGRNZM APR-MAY Nickel NCDEX CHILLI MAR-APR Zinc MCX CPO FEB-MAR 3.90 Aluminium MCX MENTHAOIL FEB-MAR 9.40 Lead NCDEX RMSEED APR-MAY NCDEX SYBEANIDR APR-JUN NCDEX CHARJDDEL APR-MAY 8.00 News you can Use India is likely to remain the world's biggest gold consumer this year after regaining the top spot from China in 2014, driven by robust jewellery demand, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Indian consumer demand for gold jewellery and investment totalled tonnes last year, compared with tonnes by China, according to WGC data. Demand dipped in both countries in 2014 from record levels a year earlier, but Indian demand slid only 14 percent, compared with a much steeper 38 percent fall in China. The two countries accounted for over half of global demand. Global gold demand also hit a five-year low last year as buying of jewellery, coins and bars failed to keep pace with 2013's elevated levels, the WGC said. The industry group forecast gold demand in both India and China to rise to 900-1,000 tonnes in 2015, but said India was likely to retain its edge. India's gold jewellery demand rose 8 percent to an all-time high of 662 tonnes in 2014 on strong purchases for weddings and festivals. The robust demand comes despite tighter gold import rules, some of which were removed only in the latter part of In contrast, Chinese jewellery demand slumped 33 percent from 2013, when a sharp slide in gold prices triggered massive purchases. The Swedish central bank shocked markets on Thursday by cutting its key interest rate into negative territory, launching bond purchases and saying it stood ready to take further measures at short notice as it battled the threat of deflation. Negative rates take Sweden into a select club of countries which have experimented with a measure that was rejected by many economists as unfeasible until the financial crisis. "To ensure that inflation rises towards the target, the Riksbank is prepared to quickly make monetary policy more expansionary, even between the ordinary monetary policy meetings, should the need arise," the central bank said in a statement. The majority of analysts in a poll had forecast no change this month and only a minority believed the Riksbank would launch further measures like bond buying to boost inflation either now or later. The Riksbank said it would "soon" make purchases of nominal government bonds with maturities from 1 year up to around 5 years for a sum of 10 billion Swedish crowns ($1.17 billion). Eurozone finance ministers ended their talks without any major breakthrough on the future course of action on Greek debt funding. "We had an intense discussion and constructive, covering a lot of ground, also making progress, but not enough progress at this point to come to joint conclusions," Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem said at the press conference in Brussels late Wednesday. "We will also continue our talks on Greece and our current and future cooperation with Greece," he said. "That is where we stand. So, there are no real conclusions, which I can share with you." European Union leaders are set to meet in Brussels today. Eurozone finance ministers will gather again on February 16. The meeting will also be dominated by talks on how to break the deadlock on Greek bailout. Greece is seeking a bridge loan from Europe rather than an extension of the bailout program. But several EU states have dismissed such an option. The European Central Bank earlier resisted suggestion of Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis to issue an extra GBP 10 billion of bills to fund the government spending. 6

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