MCALINDEN RESEARCH WEEKLY MACRO MONITOR

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1 MCALINDEN RESEARCH WEEKLY MACRO MONITOR 1 MARCH 217 US Growth Inflation Money and Credit Sentiment/Other Existing Home Sales up House Prices CreditForecast Households steady Consumer Sentiment New Home Sales up FHFA up: 6. Conf Brd up Pending Home Sales slower Black Knight steady: 5.7% Case-Shiller up: 5.6% Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Idx slower PCE Deflator up: 1.9% Durable Goods Orders weak: -.6% core steady: 1.7% GDP 4Q saar no revision: 1.9% Personal Income up: 4. Spending Europe Industrial Production Russia slow: 2.3% Unemployment Russia uptick: 5.6% Germany no change: 5.9% Consumer Prices Eurozone up: 1.8% France up: 1.6% Italy up: 1. Producer Prices Germany up: 2.4% House Prices Germany downtick: 1.4% UK Nationwide up: 4.5% Eurozone M3 slower: 4.9% Germany Bank Lending up UK Bank Lending steady Business Sentiment France up Germany IFO up Spain up Russia up Consumer Sentiment France steady UK downtick Asia, Oceania Industrial Production Taiwan slower: 2.8% Singapore slower: 2. Japan steady: 3. Thailand slower:.5% South Korea no change: 1.25% Consumer Sentiment South Korea uptick Americas Industrial Production Argentina firmer: -1. Unemployment Brazil up: 12.6% Mexico up: 3.6% Chile uptick: 6. Consumer Prices Canada up: 2. Brazil cut: 12.25% from 13. Colombia cut: 7.25% from 7.5 The information provided in this presentation (the "Report") is not to be reproduced or distributed to any other persons. This Report has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy/sell/endorse or a solicitation of an offer to buy/sell/endorse Interests or any other security or instrument or to participate in any trading or investment strategy. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made or can be given with respect to the sequence, accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information in this Report. Unless otherwise noted, sources for public data include Bloomberg, Trading Economics, and FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data). McAlinden Research publishes daily, weekly, and other periodic reports on the economy and the markets. Catalpa Capital Advisors, LLC (CCA) is a Registered Investment Advisor which manages client accounts. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets discussed herein by McAlinden Research are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Securities discussed in the Report may or may not be held in accounts managed by CCA and/or its associated persons, and changes in those accounts may be made at any time without notice to its subscribers. Neither McAlinden Research nor CCA is under an obligation to inform research recipients if any accounts managed by CCA subsequently purchase or sell securities discussed by McAlinden Research and they do not anticipate providing such information. 1

2 US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (CONFERENCE BOARD) February 28, 217 mcalindenresearch.com Level Monthly Percent Change Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Consumer Confidence ## 2.9% -1.5% 3.6% 8.5% Present Situation ## 2.6% 5.3% -6.4% 7. Expectations ## % 12.7% 9.8% Percent of Respondents Change from Prior Month Exected Inflation Rate in 12 Months ## Business Conditions "Good" ## Jobs "Plentiful" ## Good Time to Buy a House ## Good Time to Buy a Car ## Good Time to Buy an Appliance ## Consumer Confidence (Feb-17) '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 Present Situation (Feb-17) '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 Expectations (Feb-17) '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 6 Jobs "Plentiful" (Feb-17) Business Conditions "Good" (Feb-17) 28.7% 8% Exected Inflation Rate in 12 Months (Feb-17) 4.9% 7% 4 4 6% 5% 2 2 4% 3% '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg, McAlinden Research '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 2

3 US HOUSING ACTIVITY February 28, 217 mcalindenresearch.com Level (Thousands Ann'd) Year-over-Year Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Existing Home Sales 5,6 5,51 5,6 5,53 3.8% 1.5% 15.9% 4.7% New Home Sales % -.6% % Housing Starts 1,246 1,279 1,149 1,32 1.5% 1.3% -1.9% 23. Building Permits 1,293 1,228 1,212 1,26 8.8% % 7. Affordability Index % -1.6% -.4% Mortage Interest Rate (3 yr) Supply of Existing Houses in Months Supply of New Homes in Months Existing Home Price (Median, 1,s) $229 $233 $234 $ % 4.3% 6.6% 6.8% New Home Price (Median, 1,s) $ $316 $32 7.5% 5.8% -.3% 1. Existing Home Sales New Home Sales Housing Starts Building Permits 6, 5, 4, 3, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1,4 1,3 1,2 1, 1, 7 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1,4 1,3 1,2 1, 1, 7 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Existing Home Sales (Jan-17) 5,6 New Home Sales (Jan-17) 555 Housing Starts (Jan-17) 1,246 Building Permits (Jan-17) 1, '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 Sources: Bloomberg, Census 3

4 NEW AND EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES, SUPPLY, INVENTORY RATIOS February 28, 217 catalpacapital.com Existing Single Family Home Sales (Jan-17) 5,4 Existing Houses for Sale (Jan-17) 1,51 Supply of Existing Houses in Months (Jan-17) '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 New Home Sales (Jan-17) 555 New Homes for Sale (Jan-17) 265 Supply of New Homes in Months (Jan-17) '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 Thousands. Sources: Haver, Census, NAR 4

5 PENDING AND EXISTING HOME SALES Pending YoY Existing YoY (Lagged 2 months) Source: NAR, Bloomberg, McAlinden Research 5

6 CASE-SHILLER US HOME PRICE INDEXES, NSA YoY February 28, 217 catalpacapital.com US Home Index (nsa) (Dec-16) 5.9% 1-City Index (Dec-16) 4.9% 2-City Index (Dec-16) 5.6% ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 Atlanta** (Dec-16) 6.3% Boston* (Dec-16) 6.3% Charlotte** (Dec-16) 5.6% Chicago* (Dec-16) 4.9% Cleveland** (Dec-16) 4.4% ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 Dallas** (Dec-16) 8. Denver* (Dec-16) 8.9% Detroit** (Dec-16) 6. Las Vegas* (Dec-16) 5.8% Los Angeles* (Dec-16) 5.4% ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 Miami* (Dec-16) 6.8% Minneapolis** (Dec-16) 5.7% New York* (Dec-16) 3. Phoenix** (Dec-16) 4.9% Portland** (Dec-16) ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 San Francisco* (Dec-16) 5.7% San Diego* (Dec-16) 5.4% Seattle** (Dec-16) 1.8% Tampa** (Dec-16) 8.4% Washington DC* (Dec-16) ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 *1 & 2-City Constituent, **2 City Constituent. Source: Bloomberg. 6

7 CASE-SHILLER US HOME PRICE INDEXES, NSA MoM February 28, 217 catalpacapital.com US Home Index (nsa) (Dec-16). 1-City Index (Dec-16).3% 2-City Index (Dec-16).3% Atlanta** (Dec-16). Boston* (Dec-16).6% Charlotte** (Dec-16). Chicago* (Dec-16).5% Cleveland** (Dec-16).4% - 4% 3% % Dallas** (Dec-16). Denver* (Dec-16). Detroit** (Dec-16) -. Las Vegas* (Dec-16).3% Los Angeles* (Dec-16).3% Miami* (Dec-16).3% Minneapolis** (Dec-16) -. New York* (Dec-16).4% Phoenix** (Dec-16). Portland** (Dec-16).3% San Francisco* (Dec-16). San Diego* (Dec-16). Seattle** (Dec-16).6% Tampa** (Dec-16) 1. Washington DC* (Dec-16).5% 3% 3% *1 & 2-City Constituent, **2 City Constituent. Source: Bloomberg. 7

8 CASE-SHILLER US HOME PRICE INDEXES -- BOOM & BUST DATA SUMMARY February 28, 217 catalpacapital.com Locality Boom and Bust Data Latest Data Boom and Bust Dates Percent Change % to prior Month-over-Month Year-over-Year Peak Trough Months Boom Bust Recovery peak Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 US Home Index (Q) Jun-6 Jun % -27.8% 38.5% 2-City Index Jul-6 Apr % % -6.7%.3% % % 1-City Index Jun-6 Apr % -35.3% %.3% % 4.4% Atlanta** Jul-7 Mar % -39.5% 61.7% %. 6.3% % 5. Boston* Sep-5 Mar % % 6.5%.6%.4%.. 6.3% 5.5% 4.5% 4. Charlotte** Aug-7 Feb % % 5...3%.. 5.6% 5.9% Chicago* Sep-6 Mar % % -19.3%.5% -.4% -.8% % 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% Cleveland** Jul-6 Feb % -23.7% 2.4% -8..4%..5% -.4% 4.4% 3.9% % Dallas** Jun-7 Feb % 5.6% 33.7%...4%.3% Denver* Aug-6 Feb % 57.9% 35.3%..5%..3% 8.9% 8.7% 8.3% 8.7% Detroit** Dec-5 Apr % -49.3% 7.4% -13.6% % 6.7% 6.3% Las Vegas* Aug-6 Mar % -61.7% %.3%.3% -..5% 5.8% % 5.6% Los Angeles* Sep-6 May % -41.9% %.3% % 5.5% 5.6% 5.8% Miami* Dec-6 Apr % -21.7%.3%.5%.5%.5% 6.8% % 6.6% Minneapolis** Sep-6 Mar % -9.3% % 5.4% 5.4% 5. New York* Jun-6 Mar % % %.3% % 1.7% 1.6% Phoenix** Jun-6 Sep % -55.9% 64.4% -27.6%..3%.4%.3% 4.9% % Portland** Jul-7 Mar % -38.3% % % 1.9% San Francisco* May-6 Mar % -48.9%.6% 5.4%. -..6% -.4% 5.7% 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% San Diego* Nov-5 Apr % -42.3% 58.8% -8.4%..3%.. 5.4% 5.8% 5.8% 5.3% Seattle** Jul-7 Feb % -37.5% %.6% % 1.3% 1.6% 11. Tampa** Jul-6 Feb % % -19.7% 1..8%.9%.5% 8.4% % 7.5% Washington DC* May-6 Mar % -33.9% 31.7% % % 2.9% 2. Average Oct-6 Jan % -39.8% %.3% % % "Boom" start date set to Jan- *1 & 2-City Constituent, **2 City Constituent pp 8

9 US REAL GDP February 28, 217 mcalindenresearch.com Quarterly Rate of Change Weight Percentage Point Contribution was 4Q16 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q16 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 GDP 1.9% = 1.9% 3.5% 1.4%.8%. Personal Consumption 2.5% < % 1.6% 69.4% 1.7 = Durable Goods 1.9% < 11.5% 11.6% 9.8% -.6% 9.8%.8 = Nondurable Goods 2.3% < 2.8% -.5% 5.7% = Services 1.3% < 1.8% 2.7% % 44.9%.6 = Private Domestic Investment 1.7% > % -3.3% = Fixed Investment 4. > % 16.7%.7 = Nonresidential Fixed 2.4% > 1.3% 1.4% % = Residential 1. > 9.6% % 7.8% 3.5%.4 = Inventory Change = Net Exports = Exports -4.3% < % -.7% 12.7% -.5 = Imports 8.3% < 8.5% % 16.3% -1.2 = Government 1. >.4%.8% -1.7% 1.6% 17.3%.2 = Federal -1. = % -.4% -1.5% 6.7% -.1 = State and Local 2.6% > 1.3% % 3.5% 1.6%.3 = Final Sales of Domestic Product.9% =.9% % 1..9 = Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 2.5% < 2.6% % 1. Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers 2.8% < % GDP Deflator 2. = % 2.3%.5% PCE Deflator 2. = % 2..3% Core PCE Deflator 1.3% = 1.3% 1.7% 1.8% 2. Nominal GDP 4. > 3.9% % 1.3% Real GDP Contributions to Growth SAAR 6% 4% - 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 1.9% 4Q16 YoY 1 8% 6% 4% - -4% '5 '55 '6 '65 '7 ' ' ' ' ' ' '5 '1 '15 1.9% Percentage Points Q-14 6Q-14 7Q-14 8Q-14 9Q-14 Q-15 1Q-15 2Q-15 PCE Investment Net Exports Government Total GDP Source: Bloomberg 9

10 CHICAGO FED NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX February 28, 217 catalpacapital.com Level Change from Prior Month Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index ## Month Moving Average ## Chicago Fed National Activity Index, 3M ma Annual % Change Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index, 3M ma Real GDP, YoY % 5% 3% % -.5 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan % "The CFNAI is a weighted average of existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend." Sources: Haver 1

11 COMMODITIES SNAPSHOT February 28, 217 mcalindenresearch.com INDEXES J of C Index J of C Petro Index J of C Metals Index J of C Textiles Index J of C Misc Index DBA Soft Commodites 2/24/217 2/24/217 2/24/217 2/24/ /24/ West Texas Oil 7 Natural Gas* 4. Ethylene*.5 Benzene* 2/24/217 4 Ethanol MEMO Baltic Wet Tanker Index Clean 66 Dirty Baltic Dry Freight Index World Rig Count 1/31/ Feb-16 Aug-16 US Oil Rig Count 2/24/ US Gas Rig Count 2/24/ Uranium

12 COMMODITIES SNAPSHOT: SOFT COMMODITIES February 28, 217 mcalindenresearch.com GRAINS Wheat Corn Soybeans Rice Sugar ( lb) Barley OTHER GRAINS DAIRY, MEAT & FISH Coffee Salmon Milk Cheese Cattle Hogs 1 2/19/ TEXTILES MISC Cotton* Burlap* Hides ( lb)* Rubber ( lb) Plywood* Red Oak*

13 COMMODITIES SNAPSHOT: METALS February 28, 217 mcalindenresearch.com PRECIOUS METALS PLATINUM METALS GROUP Gold Spot Silver Platinum Palladium Rhodium BASE METALS Copper (lb) Aluminum (lb) Lead (1, ton) Zinc Nickel Tin ($MT)* MEMO Corn-Hog Spread

14 CURRENCY SNAPSHOT (LOCAL CURRENCY TERMS, REINDEXED TO ) February 28, 217 mcalindenresearch.com TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR G-7 CURRENCIES Trade-Weighted Dollar ed to Euro Yen Canada UK Australia 19 $ Weaker $ Stronger OTHER CURRENCIES - DOLLAR TERMS India Indonesia Mexico Philippines China Thailand KEY CROSS RATES Russia Swiss Franc Brazil New Zealand YEN/EUR CHF/AUD

15 SECTOR SNAPSHOT: US LARGE-CAPS (RELATIVE STRENGTH, REINDEXED TO ) February 28, 217 mcalindenresearch.com S&P 5 Cons Disc Cons Stpls Energy Feb-16 May-16 Feb-16 May-16 Feb-16 May-16 Feb-16 May-16 Fins Feb-16 May-16 Health Feb-16 May-16 Industrials Feb-16 May-16 Info Tech Feb-16 May-16 Materials Telecom Utilities Feb-16 May-16 Feb-16 May-16 Feb-16 May-16 15

16 GLOBAL EQUITY SNAPSHOT February 28, 217 mcalindenresearch.com S&P 5 SIZE AND STYLE (RELATIVE STRENGTH TO S&P 5) S&P S&P 5 Mid-Caps Index S&P 5 Small-Caps S&P 5 Unweighted Barclay's Aggregate Bond Idx S&P Growth/Value INTERNATIONAL ($ TERMS, RELATIVE STRENGTH TO MSCI WORLD, REINDEXED TO ) WRLD ($) US Europe UK Japan EMERGING MKTS FREE EMERGING MARKETS ($ TERMS, RELATIVE STRENGTH TO MSCI EMERGING MARKETS FREE, REINDEXED TO ) Emerging Mkts Free Eastern Europe Latin America Mideast Proxy* EM Asia

17 GLOBAL EQUITY SNAPSHOT: EMERGING MARKETS February 28, 217 mcalindenresearch.com Emerging Mkts $ Brazil 13 Brazil 125 Russia Russia India India China China Taiwan Taiwan South Korea South Korea Singapore Singapore Indonesia Indonesia Philippines Philippines Malaysia Malaysia Poland 13 Poland Hungary 135 Hungary Czech Rep Czech Rep Turkey Turkey Israel Israel South Africa South Africa Mexico Mexico Chile Chile Colombia Colombia Argentina Argentina Peru 7 Peru

18 US MONEY SUPPLY February 28, 217 mcalindenresearch.com Short-Term Monetary Base 65% 4 12-Week SAAR Month SAAR -4.7% 1-Year -3.7% M2 15% 1 12-Week SAAR 3.7% 6-Month SAAR 5. 1-Year 6.6% MZM 15% 1 12-Week SAAR 2. 6-Month SAAR 3. 1-Year 5.7% C&I 25% 2 15% 12-Week SAAR -.7% 6-Month SAAR 3.6% 1-Year 5.7% 15% 5% % 5% 5% % % Long-Term Monetary Base 1-Year -3.7% M2 1-Year 6.6% MZM 1-Year 5.7% C&I 1-Year 5.7% 12 14% 25% 25% % % 6% 4% 2 15% 1 5% 2 15% 1 5% -5% -1-15% %

19 RESERVE BALANCES AT THE US FEDERAL RESERVE, USD BILLIONS February 28, 217 mcalindenresearch.com 4 Alternative Facilities Other Traditional Instruments QE1 QE2 QE3 US Treasuries 3 2 Other MBS TARP FX Swaps Source: Fed, Bloomberg, McAlinden Research 19