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1 4 Figure. P/E RATIOS FOR S&P - P/E Ratios Using 4-quarter trailing reported earnings Using S&P forward earnings* 3 Q1 / * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Monthly data through April 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Financial. 4 Figure 1. P/E RATIOS FOR S&P (using -month forward earnings*) S&P Technology Ex Technology 4 3 Jul * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Data from 199 based on Global Industry Classification Standard. Source: Thomson Financial. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 1

2 Figure 2. S&P MATERIALS Sector S&P - P/E*: Materials - STEEL ALUMINUM DIVERSIFIED METALS & MINING PAPER PRODUCTS GOLD SPECIALTY CHEMICALS CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS Yardeni * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. Page 2 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

3 Figure 3. S&P INDUSTRIALS Sector S&P - P/E*: Industrials - BUILDING PRODUCTS INDUSTRIAL CONGLOMERATES CONSTRUCTION & ENGINEERING INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY DATA PROCESSING SERVICES AEROSPACE/DEFENSE ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES Yardeni * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 3

4 3 32 Figure 4. S&P TRANSPORTATION Sector S&P - P/E*: Industrials (cont) - AIR FREIGHT & COURIERS AIRLINES RAILROADS Jul Yardeni * Price divided by -month forward consensus operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. Page 4 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

5 Figure. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY Sector S&P - P/E*: Consumer Discretionary - HOME FURNISHINGS AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS PUBLISHING & PRINTING HOMEBUILDING MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT HOUSEWARES & SPECIALTIES ADVERTISING Yardeni * Price divided by -month forward consensus earnings expectations using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page

6 Figure. DEPARTMENT STORES Sector S&P - P/E*: Consumer Discretionary (cont) GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL RESTAURANTS APPAREL RETAIL LEISURE PRODUCTS HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL SPECIALTY STORES Yardeni * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. Page / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

7 3 Figure 7. CONSUMER STAPLES Sector S&P - P/E*: Consumer Staples - FOOD RETAIL PERSONAL PRODUCTS SOFT DRINKS HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS TOBACCO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS DISTILLERS & VINTNERS Yardeni I II III IV I II III IV 1 2 * Price divided by -month forward consensus earnings expectations using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 7

8 Figure. S&P FINANCIALS Sector S&P BANKS - P/E*: Financials - LIFE & HEALTH INSURANCE PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE DIVERSIFIED FINANCIAL SERVICES INSURANCE BROKERS CONSUMER FINANCE Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 2 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. Page / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS Yardeni OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

9 3 Figure 9. S&P HEALTH CARE Sector S&P - P/E*: Health Care - HEALTH CARE FACILITIES PHARMACEUTICALS MANAGED HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT HEALTH CARE DISTRIBUTORS & SERVICES HEALTH CARE SUPPLIES BIOTECHNOLOGY Yardeni * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 9

10 4 Figure 9. S&P INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY P/E MULTIPLE* Industry S&P - P/E*: Information Technology Jul SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT AMAT KLAC NVLS TER Jul COMPUTER HARDWARE AAPL DELL GTW HPQ IBM NCR SUNW DATA PROCESSING/OUTSOURCED SERVICES ADP CSC CE CVG EDS FDC FISV PAYX SDS TSG 4 Jul Jul COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT ADCT ANDW AV CIEN CMVT CSC GLW JDSU LU MOT QCOM SFA TLAB APPLICATION SOFTWARE ADSK CPWR CTXS ERTS INTU MERQ PMTC PSFT RATL SEBL 4 (-) earnings after e Jul Jul SEMICONDUCTORS ADI ALTR AMCC AMD BRCM INTC LLTC LSI MU MXIM NSM NVDA PMCS QLGC TXN XLNX Jul SYSTEMS SOFTWARE ADBE BMC CA MSFT NOVL ORCL VRTS Jul 7 4 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. Page 7 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

11 32 Figure 91. S&P ENERGY - P/E*: Energy - OIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION INTEGRATED OIL & GAS OIL & GAS DRILLING OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 4 Yardeni * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 71

12 Figure 92. S&P TELECOM SERVICES - P/E*: Telecom Services - Industry S&P WIRELESS TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES INTEGRATED TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICE * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected earnings using mid-month Thomson Financial data. Yardeni Page 72 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

13 2 22 Figure 93. S&P UTILITIES Sector S&P - P/E*: Utilities ELECTRIC UTILITIES GAS UTILITIES Yardeni * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected earnings using mid-month Thomson Financial data. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 73

14 Figure US Valuation - STOCK VALUATION MODEL #1 (SVM-1) (ratio scale) S&P Price Index "Fair-Value" Price* 7 / This simple valuation model compares the S&P index to its Fair Value, defined her as forward consensus expected earnings divided by the Treasury bond yield * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share divided by -year U.S. Treasury bond yield. Monthly through March 1994, weekly after. Source: Thomson Financial. Figure 9. STOCK VALUATION MODEL #1 (SVM-1)* Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued / * Ratio of S&P Index to its fair-value (2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share divided by -year U.S. Treasury bond yield). Monthly through April 1994, weekly after. Note: Shaded areas show periods when S&P fell % or more. Source: Thomson Financial, Standard & Poor s Corporation, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 74 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

15 Figure 9. - US Valuation - ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: WSPFOR Very close correlation between S&P forward earnings yield and Treasury bond yield. Invalid calculation element [SPC.FRI] :2: Figure 97. ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: WSPFOR Invalid calculation element [SPC.FRI] Reciprocal of -year Treasury bond yiled is useful measure of Fair-Value P/E for S&P :2:3 OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 7

16 - US Valuation - 4 Figure 9. STOCK VALUATION MODEL (SVM-2) (ratio scale). Jul. 4 This model builds on the simple one by adding a variable for risk and another for long-term expected earnings growth. Actual S&P Fair Value of S&P * -year earnings growth weight * Fair Value is -month forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share divided by difference between Moody s A-rated corporate bond yield less fraction (as shown above) of -year consensus expected earnings growth. Source: Thomson Financial. Figure 99. CONSENSUS EXPECTED LONG-TERM EARNINGS GROWTH* (annual rate, percent) Back to the Planet Earth: Long-term earnings growth expectations rose sharply during 199s along with stock prices. Now analysts are slashing their numbers for secular growth. S&P S&P Information Technology Ex Information Technology Jul Jul * -year forward consensus expected S&P earnings growth. Data from 199 based on new Global Industry Classification Standard. Source: Thomson Financial. Page 7 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

17 4 Figure. STOCK VALUATION MODEL #2 (SVM-2)* (percent) - US Valuation - 4 Weight market gives to long-term consensus expected earnings growth Average Weight = 13% Value > 13% = more than average weight Value < 13% = less than average weight Investors have on average over time subtracted 13% of their long-term earnings growth expectations from the corporate bond yield to determine earnings yield. The weight has been above average since Aug * Moody s A-rated corporate bond yield less S&P forward earnings yield divided by -year consensus expected earnings growth. Source: Standard and Poor s Corporation, Thomson Financial, and Moody s Investors Service. Figure 1. Corporate bond credit quality spreads remain very wide suggesting that outlook for profits and cash flow remains challenging. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 77

18 - Flow of Funds: US Equity - Figure 2. Shrinking supply of US equities (resulting from buybacks and M&A activity) partly offset by US residents purchases of foreign equities. Figure 3. Households (a residual category in Fed s FOF Accounts) continues to sell stock while Mutual Funds category continues to be significant purchasers. Page 7 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

19 7 Figure 4. - Flow of Funds: US Equity - NET PURCHASES OF U.S. CORPORATE EQUITIES (4-quarter sum, billion dollars) 7 Private Pension Funds are still net sellers of equities Pension Funds Private Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts Figure. ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: FFFLPE COMPOSE command attempted on missing data Foreigners are still major buyers of US equities; Life Insurance too, but not Personal Trusts and Estates :31: OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 79

20 - Flow of Funds: US Mutual Funds - Figure. 7 NET INFLOWS INTO MUTUAL FUNDS* (billion dollars) Equity Mutual Funds Bond Mutual Funds * Figures reflect sales less redemptions, plus the net result of fund switches, plus reinvested dividends. Source: Investment Company Institute. Figure 7. MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (monthly change, billion dollars, sa) Institutional Retail Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Page / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

21 4 Figure. - Flow of Funds: US Mutual Funds - TOTAL EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS* (net inflows, -month sum, billion dollars) EMERGING MARKETS AGGRESSIVE GROWTH GLOBAL & INTERNATIONAL * Total sales less redemptions plus the net result of fund switches in billions of dollars. Source: Investment Company Institute. GROWTH REGIONAL SECTOR GROWTH & INCOME OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 1

22 - Flow of Funds: US Mutual Funds - Figure 9. EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS (cumulative gains since 199, billion dollars) Cumulative Flows Net Assets Net Inflows Capital Gains Source: Investment Company Institute Figure 1. EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS* Gains and Inflows Equity Mutual Fund Assets (yearly change, billion dollars) Net Inflows Into Equity Mutual Funds (-month sum, billion dollars) * Figures reflect sales less redemptions, plus the net result of fund switches, plus reinvested dividends. Source: Investment Company Institute. Page 2 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

23 Figure Flow of Funds: Equity Wealth - ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: FFSPCAP ={MUL DIV ADD SUB} command -- - :31: Figure 1. ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: SPCAPY Invalid calculation element [SPMV.MTH] :39:1 OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 3

24 2 - Flow of Funds: Liquidity - Figure 113. MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS* (as a percent of stock market capitalization**) / * Held by Individuals and Institutions. ** Wilshire Index Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Reuters America, Inc. Figure 1. ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: MZMYR1 Invalid calculation element [MZM] :7: Page 4 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

25 Technical Indicators - Figure 1. S&P INDEX MINUS -DAY MOVING AVERAGE NASDAQ MINUS -DAY MOVING AVERAGE Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Reuters America, Inc Figure 1. INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS Bulls Bears Ratio Bulls To Bears Source: Investors Intelligence. 7 / / OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page

26 4 Figure Technical Indicators - NYSE STOCK MARKET INDEX VS BREADTH 7 /7 1/ NYSE Breadth* NYSE Price Index * Breadth is measured by subtracting the number of declines from the number of advances, and adding the result to that of the previous day. Source: New York Stock Exchange and Muller Data Corporation. 9 Figure 11. PRICE BREADTH: (% of companies with positive y/y % changes) /2 / NYSE S&P Source: FactSet. 4 Page / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

27 Figure US Monetary Policy - FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & S&P FORWARD EARNINGS Federal Funds Rate Target (yearly change) / / S&P Forward Earnings* (yearly percent change) * 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994; weekly thereafter. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Thomson Financial. Figure 1. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & ISM PRICE INDEX Fed policy cycle is highly correlated with profits and manufacturing pricing cycles Jul / Federal Funds Rate Target (yearly change) ISM Price Index Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Institute for Supply Management. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 7

28 Figure 1. - US Monetary Policy - FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & GDP GROWTH Federal Funds Rate Target (percent) Nominal GDP (yearly percent change) Q2 7 / Fed policy cycle is highly correlated with capacity utilization and GDP cycles Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure 2. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & CAPACITY UTILIZATION Federal Funds Rate Target (yearly change) / Capacity Utilization Rate: Total Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

29 4 37 Figure 3. NEW ORDERS (billions dollars, 3-month ma, saar) Computers & Electronic Products Orders Shipments - High-Tech Orders (yearly percent change in 3-month ma) Computers & Electronic Products Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Figure 4. NEW ORDERS (billion dollars, 3-month ma, saar) Nondefense Communications Equipment Orders Shipments (yearly percent change) Nondefense Communications Equipment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 9

30 Figure 1. - High-Tech: Industrial Production - INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) Computers Industrial Producton In real GDP Communications Equipment Communications Equipment Industrial Production In real GDP Semiconductors & Other Electronic Components Industrial Production Semiconductor & Other Electronic Components Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 9 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

31 - High-Tech: Earnings & Orders - Figure. EARNINGS & ORDERS 4 4 Information Technology New Orders: Computers & Electronic Products (billion dollars, 3-month ma, saar) Forward Earnings* * -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share for S&P Information Technology. Source: Thomson Financial and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 4 4 Figure 7. EARNINGS & ORDERS Computers New Orders (billion dollars, 3-month ma, saar) Forward Earnings* * -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share for S&P Computer Hardware. Source: Thomson Financial and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 91

32 High-Tech: Earnings & Orders - Figure. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & SHIPMENTS: COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT S&P Forward Earnings: Communications Equipment* Shipments: Communications Equipment (billion dollars, saar) Jul * -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share for the S&P Communications Equipment industry. Source: Thomson Financial and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Figure 9. EARNINGS & ORDERS Semiconductors New Orders: Electronic Components (billion dollars, 3-month ma, saar) Forward Earnings* * -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share for S&P Semiconductors Source: Thomson Financial and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 92 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

33 Figure 1. - Interest-Rate Sensitive Stocks - ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: SMIRS KEEP command attempted on missing data :37: Figure 131. ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: SMIRS1 KEEP command attempted on missing data :37:1 OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 93

34 - Interest-Rate Sensitive Stocks - Figure 132. ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: SMIRS3 KEEP command attempted on missing data :37:21 Figure Year Government Yield (inverted scale) 4 / Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 94 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

35 1 Figure US Leading Indicators - INDEX OF LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REAL GDP (yearly percent change) Leading Indicators* Real GDP Sep * Yearly percent change plus 3 percentage points, pushed forward by 3 months. Source: Conference Board and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 7 Figure 13. S&P & REAL GDP (yearly percent change) Oct S&P * Real GDP * Divided by, plus 3 percentage points, pushed forward by 3 months. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Standard & Poor s Corporation. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 9

36 Figure 13. UNITED STATES (1997=, sa) - Americas Industrial Production - CANADA (1997=, sa) May MEXICO (1993=, nsa) BRAZIL (1991=, sa) Jan ARGENTINA (1997=, nsa) CHILE (199=, nsa) Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 9 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook Yardeni OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

37 Figure 137. EUROZONE (199=) - European Industrial Production* GERMANY (=) FRANCE (=) May ITALY (199=) NETHERLANDS (=) May UNITED KINGDOM (=) SWEDEN (=) May FINLAND (=) Yardeni * All data are seasonally adjusted. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 97

38 1 Figure 13. JAPAN (199=) - Asian Industrial Production - CHINA ( million yuan) KOREA (199=) TAIWAN (1=, sa) SINGAPORE (3=, sa) ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: DSTHAIP MALAYSIA (1993=, sa) COMPOSE command attempted on missing data -- - :2: PHILIPPINES (1994=, sa) May Yardeni Page 9 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

39 Figure 139. G7* - G7 Retail Sales* - JAPAN May UNITED STATES GERMANY CANADA May FRANCE May UNITED KINGDOM ITALY * All series are volume indexes except for the U.S. which is in millions of dollars. All series are yearly percent changes in -month averages. Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development, Standard & Poor s DRI, and Haver Analytics. May OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 99

40 34 Figure. G7* - G7 Car Registrations* - JAPAN May Jul UNITED STATES GERMANY 4. Includes domestic cars, light trucks & imports Jul CANADA May FRANCE Jul UNITED KINGDOM ITALY Jul * All series are million units and -month sums. Source: Standard & Poor s DRI. Page / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

41 Figure 1. UNITED STATES (19=) - G7 Consumer Confidence Indexes - EUROZONE UNITED KINGDOM GERMANY FRANCE ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: CCJAP COMPOSE command attempted on missing data -- - :1: Yardeni OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 1

42 Figure 2. MONEY SUPPLY (yearly percent change) - Money Supply Growth* - - United States: M2 United States: MZM* EUROPE Euro Zone : M3 United Kingdom: M UNITED KINGDOM: M4* JAPAN M2 Plus CDs Jul 7 1 Page 2 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

43 7 Figure 3. EUROPE Dow Jones Stoxx (euro-based) - Stock Markets: Europe - ITALY Mibtel General /7 / UNITED KINGDOM FTSE /7 NETHERLANDS Amsterdam / GERMANY DAX /7 SWEDEN AffarsvardnGen / FRANCE CAC 4 SWITZERLAND SMI 9 4 /7 / day moving average. Source: Reuters America, Inc. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 3

44 Figure 4. UNITED STATES Dow Jones Industrials Stock Markets: Americas - /7 ARGENTINA Merval / CANADA Toronto /4 CHILE IGPA General / MEXICO Bolsa /7 VENEZUELA IBC / BRAZIL Bovespa /7 PERU Lima / day moving average. Source: Reuters America, Inc. Page 4 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

45 2 Figure. JAPAN Nikkei - Stock Markets: Asia - MALAYSIA Kuala Lumpur 1 /7 / SOUTH KOREA Kospi / SINGAPORE 199 Straits 1999 Times /7 -day moving average. HONG KONG Hang Seng /7 Source: Reuters America, Inc. THAILAND 1 Bangkok / TAIWAN TWSE /7 AUSTRALIA All Ordinaries /7 4 -day moving average. 4 Source: Reuters America, Inc OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page

46 Figure. CRB FUTURES PRICE INDEX (197=) Commodities - /7 COPPER SCRAP PRICE (cents per pound) / CRB SPOT PRICE INDEXES (197=) Raw Industrials Metals /1 GOLD SPOT PRICE (dollars per troy ounce) / LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURE PRICE* (dollars per barrel) / SOYBEAN FUTURE PRICE* (cents per bushel) / Page / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

47 7 Figure 7. UNITED STATES - -Year Government Bond Yields - GERMANY CANADA FRANCE UNITED KINGDOM ITALY JAPAN NETHERLANDS Yardeni Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, MMS International and Reuters America, Inc. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 7

48 Figure. FORWARD EARNINGS* (local currencies) US S&P - Global Valuation: Earnings Jul Germany DAX Jul Jul Jul Canada TSE France CAC UK FTSE Jul Jul Japan TOPIX * EPS are -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Financial. Page / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

49 Figure 9. STOCK VALUATION MODEL - Global Valuation: S&P - Aug Industrial Production (2=) 4 Expected Earnings Per Share* For S&P (dollars) Fair-Value P/E Forward P/E Stock Price Index (S&P ) (ratio scale) Fair-Value Price (ratio scale) Overvalued Undervalued Yardeni Source: Thomson Financial OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 9

50 1 9 Figure. STOCK VALUATION MODEL Industrial Production (199=) - Global Valuation: FT Expected Earnings Per Share* for FT (pounds) Page 1 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

51 1 4 Figure 1. STOCK VALUATION MODEL - Global Valuation: DAX - Industrial Production (199=) Expected Earnings Per Share* for DAX (Euros) Stock Price Index (DAX) (ratio scale) Fair-Value (ratio scale) / OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 111

52 Figure 2. STOCK VALUATION MODEL Industrial Production (199=) - Global Valuation: CAC 4 - Expected Earnings Per Share* for CAC 4 (Euros) Stock Price Index (CAC 4) (ratio scale) Fair-Value (ratio scale) Page 1 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

53 Figure 3. - Global Valuation: TOPIX - ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: XJAP1 ={MUL DIV ADD SUB} command :3:4 OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Global Strategist s Handbook / August, / Page 113

54 1 Figure 4. STOCK VALUATION MODEL - Global Valuation: TSE - Expected Earnings Per Share* for TSE (Canadian dollars) Industrial Production (199=) May Page 1 / August, / Global Strategist s Handbook OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

Table Of Contents. Table Of Contents. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

Table Of Contents. Table Of Contents. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Index -1 Consumer Discretionary -3 S&P Consumer Staples - S&P Energy -7 S&P Financials -9 S&P Health Care -1 S&P Industrials -3 S&P Information Technology - S&P