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2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Retailers: Consumer Discretionary 1 S&P Retailers: Consumer Staples S&P // Retailers YTD - Retail: US vs. Europe, Yearly Percent Change Consumer Discretionary: Apparel Retail - Consumer Discretionary: Computer & Electronics Retail -9 Consumer Discretionary: Department Stores -11 Consumer Staples: Drug Retail 1-1 Consumer Staples: Food Retail 1-1 Consumer Discretionary: General Merchandise Stores 1-1 Consumer Discretionary: Home Improvement Retail 1-19 Consumer Staples: Hypermarkets & Super Centers -1 Consumer Discretionary: Internet Retail - Consumer Discretionary: Specialty Stores - Retailers E & P/E - Retailers Profit Margins 9 US Consumers: Retail Sales Retail Sales 1 Retail Sales & Earnings Auto & Home Sales G Retail Sales ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

3 Figure 1. - S&P Retailers: Consumer Discretionary - S&P APPAREL RETAIL ANF GPS LTD TJX / S&P COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL BBY CC RSH / S&P DEPARTMENT STORES (JCP JWN KSS SHLD) S&P DISTRIBUTORS GPC / / S&P GENERAL MERCHANDISE (BLI DG FDO TGT) / S&P INTERNET RETAIL (AMZN EXPE NFLX PCLN) day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor s Corporation. / S&P HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL (HD LOW SHW) / S&P SPECIALTY STORES (ODP OMX SPLS TIF) / Page 1 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

4 Figure. S&P DRUG RETAIL (CVS WAG) - S&P Retailers: Consumer Staples - / S&P FOOD DISTRIBUTORS (SYY) / S&P FOOD RETAIL (KR SVU SWY WFMI) S&P HYPERMARKETS & SUPER CENTERS (COST WMT) 1 1 / / day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor s Corporation Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

5 - S&P // Retailers YTD - Apparel Retail Figure. S&P Large Cap S&P Mid Cap S&P Small Cap -11. Automotive Retail Computer & Electronics Retail Department Stores Distributors Drug Retail Food Distributors Food Retail General Merchandise Stores Home Improvement Retail Homefurnishing Retail Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec 11 Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

6 - S&P // Retailers YTD - Hypermarkets & Super Centers Figure. S&P Large Cap S&P Mid Cap. Internet & Catalog Retail 1 -. S&P Small Cap Specialty Stores Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec 11 Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

7 - Retail: US vs. Europe, Yearly Percent Change - Fig. S&P LargeCap MSCI Europe All Sectors Distributors Food & Staples Retailing Internet & Catalog Retail Multiline Retail Specialty Retail Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

8 - Consumer Discretionary: Apparel Retail - Figure. S&P APPAREL RETAIL* (ANF GPS LTD ROST TJX URBN) / 1 1 -day moving average * Ratio scale. Figure. S&P APPAREL RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE 1 (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts 1 1-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Numbers above time line are annual growth rates. Figure. S&P APPAREL RETAIL VALUATION P/E* S&P P/E* * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

9 - Consumer Discretionary: Apparel Retail - Figure S&P APPAREL RETAIL RELATIVE VALUATION P/E Relative to S&P * * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Figure. S&P APPAREL RETAIL NET REVISIONS* (% estimates up less down) * Three-month moving average of 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month consensus forecast. Figure 11. S&P APPAREL RETAIL PROFIT MARGIN (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) - - Q1 Operating Profit Margin Industry S&P Composite Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

10 - Consumer Discretionary: Computer & Electronics Retail - Figure 1. S&P COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL* (BBY GME) 1 1 -day moving average * Ratio scale. Figure 1. S&P COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE 9 (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 1 11 / Consensus Forecasts 1-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Numbers above time line are annual growth rates. Figure 1. S&P COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL VALUATION P/E* S&P P/E* * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

11 - Consumer Discretionary: Computer & Electronics Retail - Figure S&P COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAILERS RELATIVE VALUATION 1. P/E Relative to S&P * * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Figure 1. S&P COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL NET REVISIONS* (% estimates up less down) * Three-month moving average of 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month consensus forecast. Figure 1. S&P COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL PROFIT MARGIN 9 (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Operating Profit Margin Industry S&P Composite Q Page 9 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

12 - Consumer Discretionary: Department Stores Figure 1. S&P DEPARTMENT STORES* (JCP JWN KSS M SHLD) / day moving average * Ratio scale. Figure 19. S&P DEPARTMENT STORES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts 1-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Numbers above time line are annual growth rates. Figure. S&P DEPARTMENT STORES VALUATION P/E* S&P P/E* * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

13 - Consumer Discretionary: Department Stores - Figure S&P DEPARTMENT STORES RELATIVE VALUATION P/E Relative to S&P * * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Figure. S&P DEPARTMENT STORES NET REVISIONS* (% estimates up less down) * Three-month moving average of 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month consensus forecast. Figure. S&P DEPARTMENT STORES PROFIT MARGIN 9 (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Operating Profit Margin Industry S&P Composite 1 Q Page 11 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

14 9 1 Figure. - Consumer Staples: Drug Retail - S&P DRUG RETAIL INDEX* (CVS WAG) / day moving average * Ratio scale. Figure. S&P DRUG RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts 1-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Numbers above time line are annual growth rates. Figure. S&P DRUG RETAIL VALUATION P/E* S&P P/E* * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Page 1 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

15 Consumer Staples: Drug Retail - Figure. S&P DRUG RETAIL RELATIVE VALUATION P/E Relative to S&P * * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Figure. S&P DRUG RETAIL NET REVISIONS* (% estimates up less down) * Three-month moving average of 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month consensus forecast. Figure 9. S&P DRUG RETAIL PROFIT MARGIN 9 (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) - 9 Operating Profit Margin Industry S&P Composite Q1 Page 1 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

16 1 1 1 Figure. - Consumer Staples: Food Retail - S&P FOOD RETAIL* (KR SVU SWY WMI) -day moving average / * Ratio scale. Figure 1. S&P FOOD RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts 1-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Numbers above time line are annual growth rates. Figure. S&P FOOD RETAIL VALUATION P/E* S&P P/E* * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data Page 1 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

17 Consumer Staples: Food Retail - Figure. S&P FOOD RETAIL RELATIVE VALUATION P/E Relative to S&P * * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Figure. S&P FOOD RETAIL NET REVISIONS* (% estimates up less down) * Three-month moving average of 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month consensus forecast. Figure. S&P FOOD RETAIL PROFIT MARGIN (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Operating Profit Margin Industry S&P Composite Q Page 1 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

18 - Consumer Discretionary: General Merchandise Stores - Figure. S&P GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES* (BIG FDO TGT) / 1 1 -day moving average * Ratio scale. Figure. S&P GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts 1-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Numbers above time line are annual growth rates. Figure. S&P GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES VALUATION P/E* S&P P/E* * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. 1 Page 1 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

19 - Consumer Discretionary: General Merchandise Stores - Figure S&P GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES RELATIVE VALUATION P/E Relative to S&P * * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Figure. S&P GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES NET REVISIONS* estimates up less down) * Three-month moving average of 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month consensus forecast. Figure 1. S&P GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES PROFIT MARGIN 9 (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Operating Profit Margin Industry S&P Composite Q Page 1 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

20 - Consumer Discretionary: Home Improvement Retail - Figure. S&P HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL* (HD LOW SHW) / 1 -day moving average * Ratio scale. Figure. S&P HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 9 Consensus Forecasts 1-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Numbers above time line are annual growth rates. Figure. S&P HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL VALUATION P/E* S&P P/E* * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. 1 Page 1 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

21 - Consumer Discretionary: Home Improvement Retail - Figure... S&P HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL RETAIL RELATIVE VALUATION. 1. P/E Relative to S&P * * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Figure. S&P HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL NET REVISIONS* (% estimates up less down) * Three-month moving average of 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month consensus forecast. Figure. S&P HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL PROFIT MARGIN 9 (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Operating Profit Margin Industry S&P Composite Q1 1 Page 19 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

22 - Consumer Staples: Hypermarkets & Super Centers Figure. S&P HYPERMARKETS & SUPER CENTERS INDEX* (COST WMT) / day moving average * Ratio scale. Figure 9. S&P HYPERMARKETS & SUPER CENTERS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE 1 (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts 1-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Numbers above time line are annual growth rates. Figure. S&P HYPERMARKETS & SUPER CENTERS VALUATION P/E* S&P P/E* * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

23 - Consumer Staples: Hypermarkets & Super Centers - Figure S&P HYPERMARKETS & SUPER CENTERS RELATIVE VALUATION P/E Relative to S&P * * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Figure. S&P HYPERMARKETS & SUPER CENTERS NET REVISIONS* (% estimates up less down) * Three-month moving average of 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month consensus forecast. Figure. S&P HYPERMARKETS & SUPER CENTERS PROFIT MARGIN 9 (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) - 9 Operating Profit Margin Industry S&P Composite Q1 Page 1 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

24 9 - Consumer Discretionary: Internet Retail - Figure. S&P INTERNET RETAIL* (AMZN EXPE PCLN) / day moving average * Ratio scale. Figure. S&P INTERNET RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts 1-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Numbers above time line are annual growth rates. Figure. S&P INTERNET RETAIL VALUATION 1 P/E* S&P P/E* * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

25 - Consumer Discretionary: Internet Retail - Figure... S&P INTERNET RETAIL RELATIVE VALUATION. Relative P/E capped at P/E Relative to S&P * * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Figure. S&P INTERNET RETAIL NET REVISIONS* (% estimates up less down) * Three-month moving average of 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month consensus forecast. Figure 9. S&P INTERNET RETAIL PROFIT MARGIN (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Operating Profit Margin Industry S&P Composite 1 Q Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

26 1 1 - Consumer Discretionary: Specialty Stores - Figure. S&P SPECIALTY STORES* (ODP SPLS TIF) / -day moving average * Ratio scale. Figure 1. 1 S&P SPECIALTY STORES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE 1 (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts 1-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Numbers above time line are annual growth rates. Figure. S&P SPECIALTY STORES VALUATION P/E* S&P P/E* * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

27 - Consumer Discretionary: Specialty Stores - Figure S&P SPECIALTY STORES RELATIVE VALUATION 1. P/E Relative to S&P * * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Figure. S&P SPECIALTY STORES NET REVISIONS* (% estimates up less down) * Three-month moving average of 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month consensus forecast. Figure. S&P SPECIALTY STORES PROFIT MARGIN 9 (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Operating Profit Margin Industry S&P Composite Q Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

28 1 1 1 Figure. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS:* SPECIALTY RETAIL (199=) Apparel Retail Computers & Electronics Retail Home Improvement Retail Specialty Stores - Retailers E & P/E * 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Financial. Figure. S&P P/E RATIOS:* SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Retail Computers & Electronics Retail Home Improvement Retail Specialty Stores * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

29 Figure. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS:* MULTILINE RETAIL (199=) - Retailers E & P/E - Department Stores General Merchandise Stores * 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Financial. Figure 9. S&P P/E RATIOS:* MULTILINE RETAIL Department Stores General Merchandise Stores * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

30 1 1 1 Figure. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS:* FOOD & STAPLES RETAILING (199=) - Retailers E & P/E - Drug Retail Food Distributors Food Retail * 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Financial. Figure 1. S&P P/E RATIOS:* FOOD & STAPLES RETAILING (199=) Drug Retail Food Distributors Food Retail * Price divided by 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial. Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

31 9 Figure. - Retailers Profit Margins - S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS SPECIALTY RETAIL (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) 9 1 Q Apparel Retail Home Improvement Retail Computer & Electronics Retail Specialty Stores Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS MULTILINE RETAIL (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Department Stores General Merchandise Stores Q Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS FOOD & STAPLES RETAILING (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Q 1 Drug Retail Food Distributors Food Retail Page 9 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

32 1 1 Figure. - US Consumers: Retail Sales - RETAIL & FOOD SERVICES SALES (yearly percent change in -month moving average) 1 1 Jul - - Retail Sales & Food Services Retail Sales & Food Services Sales Ex Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers & Gasoline Furniture & Home Furnishings Plus Furniture Stores Building Materials Electronics & Appliance Stores Department Stores Total Discount Conventional & National Chain Jul Jul Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. - Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

33 Figure. NONSTORE RETAIL SALES (yearly percent change in -ma) - Retail Sales - 1 Jun 1 Electronic Shopping & Mail Order Source: U.S. Depratment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. - Figure. US CONSUMER INDICATORS Initial Unemployment Claims (-week average, thousands, sa, inverted scale) Retail Sales Ex Autos & Gasoline (yearly percent change in -ma) Source: Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jul Page 1 / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

34 Figure. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & SALES: COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL - Retail Sales & Earnings - S&P Forward Earnings: Computer & Electronics Retail* Electronics & Appliance Store Sales (billion dollars, saar) * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Financial and Census Bureau. Figure 9. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & SALES: HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL S&P Forward Earnings: Home Improvement Retail* Retail Sales: Building Materials & Garden Equipment (billion dollars, saar) * Time-weighted average of current and analysts consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Financial and Department of Commerce Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

35 Figure. RETAIL UNIT AUTO SALES (million units, saar) - Auto & Home Sales Total* Jul 1 Domestic Cars Domestic Light Trucks Imports Jul * Includes domestic cars, light trucks, and imports. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis... Figure 1. HOUSING STARTS & NEW HOME SALES (million units, saar) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Housing Starts New Home Sales Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Jul.... Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

36 Figure. G* May G Retail Sales* - JAPAN Jun UNITED STATES Jul GERMANY Jun CANADA May FRANCE May UNITED KINGDOM Jun ITALY * All series are volume indexes except for the U.S. which is in millions of dollars. All series are yearly percent changes in 1-month averages. Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development, Standard & Poor s DRI, and Haver Analytics. May Page / ust, 11 / Analyst s Handbook: Retailers www.

37 Copyright (c) 11. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. This report and the others posted on www. are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www. may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s or website. Additional information available on request.

S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Consumer Discretionary Retail Industry Group

S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Consumer Discretionary Retail Industry Group S&P Industry Briefing: Consumer Discretionary Retail Industry Group November, 18 Dr. Ed Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-6 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside