Flood Risk, Insurance and Integrated Flood Hazard Management

Transcription

1 Canadian Water Resources Association Association Canadienne des Ressources Hydriques Flood Risk, Insurance and Integrated Flood Hazard Management Dave Murray, National President June 8-9, 2016 Window on Ottawa

2 2 Who is CWRA? Hydro-illogical cycle Insurance and the Policy Shift Let s do the Integrated approach to flood management?

3 Who is CWRA? Origins since 1947 in the west formally established in 1968 Approx. 1,000 members individuals & organizations Full spectrum of water resource professionals (multidisciplinary, biologists to engineers) Branches in 8 provinces 4 Affiliates (CANCID, CSHS, SYP, Project WET) National Executive Director, National Office

4 Who We Are Broad-based not-for-profit water organization Water resource professionals from the public, private, and academic sectors A volunteer organization dedicated to EFFECTIVE WATER MANAGEMENT (Mission) Hydrology and Hydraulics Geomorphology Climate Science Floods and Droughts Agriculture Biology Water Policy Watershed Management Fisheries

5 Our Objectives To stimulate public awareness and understanding of Canada's water resources To encourage public recognition of the high priority of water as a valued resource To provide a forum for the exchange of information and opinion relating to the management of Canada's water resources To participate with appropriate agencies in international water resource management activities

6 Our Organization National Board Irrigation and drainage Branches/ Chapters BC,AB, SK, MB, ON, QC, NB, NFLD Hydrologic Science

7 What We Do Major Conferences, Workshops, Webinars & other seminars Sponsor Project WET (Water Education for Teachers) Canadian Water Resources Journal Water News Magazine Website: Scholarships Special Projects publications

8 Emerging Issues in Water Management Floodplain Hazard Mapping includes national flood strategy, floodplain and flood risk management National Water Policy & Governance Watershed & Integrated Water Management Water Quality and Source Water Protection Water Law, Water Economics, Social Sciences

9 9 National Flood Mapping Technical Committee Reps from most Provinces, CWRA, DND, INAC Nov 2015 Mar 2016 May-June 2016 Fall 2016 Timeline March 11, 2011

10 The Hydro-illogical Cycle Political Return Period 2-4 years

11 Flood Damage Reduction Program 11 (FDRP) s Canada Water Act cost-shared (50-50) federalprovincial-territorial agreements Most major population centres vulnerable to flooding in Canada were mapped under the FDRP Fraser River Flood Control Program The number of designated flood-risk areas has reached a total of 341 covering more than 980 communities

12 The Dark Age of Flood Mapping

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14 The New Dawn!

15 What has changed? 1. No residential overland flood insurance up to Insurance companies in Calgary were exposed 3. One company decided to cover flood damage then others followed 4. Approached Feds with plan to offer insurance if they put skin in the game 5. Several companies have built flood models to assess risk for their purposes 6. Insurance being rolled out but will most vulnerable areas be covered?

16 Federal Government How to reduce flood damage payout? Provinces and Territories How to quantify and regulate flooding? Private Insurance How to share flood hazard/risk maps? 16 Local Communities How we plan for and pay for flood resilience? Real Estate Industry: Flood Risk on title? Policy Shift from Public to Private Monetization How to transfer the risk of flood damage for the good of society?

17 17 It s important to take the time to do it right! Substantial shift in policy

18 18 Important Policy Issues 1. Who pays for flood damage if private insurance won t? 2. If a homeowner chooses not to insure would the government cover them after a flood? 3. What expectation does the insurance industry have for government to provide flood planning and mitigation? 4. What mapping governs on a payout where both government and insurance maps exist? 5. What about mortgage lenders and real estate, should flood risk be declared on property title? Will property value drop after insurers determine they won t cover a high risk property? March 11, 2011

19 19 Practical-technical Issues 1. How should climate change hydrology be incorporated into determining flood hazards? Best practices from real-world examples. 2. What range of hydraulic scenarios should we use? Should it include multiple hazards (coastal, river, geohazards)? Do dikes count as mitigation in the model or for insurance? 3. What about social consequences of flooding (loss of business, stranding of communities). How is this accounted for? 4. What about environmental consequences? How so we assess this risk? March 11, 2011

20 What we should do/ not do? Don t fund or support development in designated floodrisk areas, e.g., by federal and provincial regional development agencies Don t allow CMHC to allow mortgages nor lend funds for developments in floodplains Don t provide disaster assistance for those who built in the floodplain after designation as a flood risk area Do map hazards and determine consequences and risk Do enact zoning regulations on the basis of flood risk assessments

21 What the future holds? Rivers: By 2100, the 1% annual chance (100-year) floodplain depth and the lateral flood area projected to increase (on average) by about 40% Coastal: By 2100, coastal flood hazard areas may increase anywhere up to 50% 2100, the population within riverine and coastal flood hazard areas is expected to increase by 130 to 150% Source: National Principals, Best Practices and Guidelines Flood Mapping 2016

22 I have a dream! 22 What is an Integrated Flood Hazard Management Framework? Builds on Metro Vancouver Integrated Stormwater Management Template Considers Science, Safety, Environment, Community Values, Economics Is Holistic and Inclusive Balances risks, consequences and costs Assessing Hazards Coastal River and creek Lake Stormwater Groundwater Debris flow/flood Seismic Mitigation Best available to balance risk and consequences Decision Making Look at full range of impacts and benefits Cost to people Benefits to community and environment

23 Flood Risk Definition 23 Vulnerability (potential) Risk Hazard Consequence = x Depth & Velocity Damage & Loss

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25 The Roadmap to an IFHMP 25 Identify need and secure funding Identify key partners and decision-makers Scoping (can be very difficult!) Assemble a multi-disciplinary technical team Establish stakeholder engagement strategy Solicit input on values, objectives, constraints & opportunities Analyze hazards, consequences, and risks Identify potential mitigation strategies, tools and associated costs Screen, evaluate, consult, and revise mitigation options (often iterative!) Document preferences and implementation plan Prepare and implement tools

26 Community Engagement Scoping 26 Determine what risk can they tolerate? What are their concerns about hazards? Economic, environmental, social, cultural? What infrastructure is critical? What are the cumulative impacts for new development?

27 Community Engagement 27 Mobilize stakeholders at different stages: values and objectives, planning, implementing Inclusiveness, balance, transparency, and clarity are appropriate objectives for engagement process Lack of community buy-in can limit effectiveness But, need to manage expectations consensus is often not possible Source: City of Burlington Community Engagement Charter

28 Pillars of Decision Making and Trade-offs28 VISION Vision- where are we going? STRATEGIES High-level approach VALUES What matters most to us? PROCESSES Apply, communicate and implement PLAN How do we pull it all together?

29 Strategies 29 Accept (status quo ) or Attack where must protect? Protect Accommodate Retreat Avoid Protect existing development balancing costs and increasing vulnerability against risk Accommodate potential hazards, reduce consequences by changing human activities and increasing resilience Gradually withdrawing vulnerable infrastructure from hazard areas in recognition of increasing vulnerability from changing climate Avoid increasing the present or density of vulnerable populations or infrastructure within hazard areas

30 Flood Risk Mitigation: Buying Down the Risk Initial Risk Land Use Planning Tools Site Specific Tools Structural Flood Protection Works Watershed and River Management Public Outreach and Education Emergency Planning Flood Insurance HIGH FLOOD RISK INITIAL RISK Planning Regulatory Land Use Site Specific Structural RESIDUAL RISK LOW Residual Risk Flood Risk Mitigation Tools Adapted from: United States Army Corps of Engineers (Riley, 2008)

31 Integrated Flood Management Process Hazards 1. Flood Map identifies extents 2. Depth-velocity identifies hazard Consequences Risk 3. Damage Curves property and life etc. 4. Environmental and Social Assessment 5. Determine Risk Approach 6. Determine Risk from Hazards and Consequences Community Engagement 7. Prioritize/triage Risks 8. Inform/engage Community 9. Determine risk Tolerance Mitigation 10. Identify Mitigation Options 11. Determine Costs and Impacts 12. Apply tools to Buy down Risk 13. Prioritize tools and Phasing IFHM Plan 14. Draft Plan 15. Seek Community Input 16. Refine, funding and timelines 17. Implement Plan 18. Revisit and Refine

32 The IFM Process Distillery 32 Flood Tolerance Pressure Community Engagement Risk Vapour Risk Evaluation Tools Consequences Mitigation Condenser HEAT (Politics, Policy and Funding) Hazards IFMP COOLING Will you get Single Malt or Moonshine?

33 Fraser Basin Council 33

34 Flood Scenarios 34

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36 36 Downtown Howe Sound

37 The Hazards 37 Coastal flood River Flood Dike Breach Debris flow/flood

38 Squamish IFHMP Steps Phase 1 Flood Mitigation Background Analysis Hydrology Geohazards Climate change, coastal water levels Extent and condition of existing flood protection Existing policy tools that manage flood hazards Phase 2 Coastal Mitigation Options Phase 3 River Floodplain Mapping and Risk Analysis Phase 4 Integrated Flood Hazard Management Plan

39 Depth, Velocity and Debris Factor Floodplain Extent Physical Hazard

40 Environmental Environmental Consequence Social Social Consequence

41 Squamis Key IFM Recommendations 41 Squamish 3d figure March 11, 2011

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43 Take-Aways The Hydro-illogical cycle is Real 2. It s a New Dawn in Flood Mapping! 3. The integrated approach (environment, economic, social) is the way to go

44 The Case for Integrated Flood Planning44 If you change the way you make decisions you will change the decisions you make Dave Murray,