29 N o v e m b e r

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1 F U T URE CITIES AFRICA EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 29 N v e m b e r This dcument has a restricted distributin and may be used by recipients nly in the perfrmance f their fficial duties. Its cntents may nt therwise be disclsed withut Cities Alliance Secretariat authrisatin.

2 Executive Summary Dcument Cntrl Dcument Versin Prepared by Reviewed by Cleared by Final Julian Baskin Jamie Simpsn William Cbbett Date 15/12/2016 i

3 Executive Summary ii

4 1. F U T U R E C I T I E S A F R I C A D E S I G N Future Cities Africa (FCA) was a 24mnth prgramme undertaken by the Cities Alliance, n behalf f the UK s Department fr Internatinal Develpment (DFID) with a budget f 4.81 millin. Wrking in at least 2 cities in 4 cuntries (Ghana, Uganda, Mzambique and Ethipia) the weighted bjectives and utputs were; Objective Output Weighting The Case fr Future Prgramming 30% Invest in filling knwledge gaps Critical Research 30% Imprve decisin making and infrmatin sharing Digital Tls 25% Develp new thinking and ways f wrking Innvatin 15% A successful prject utcme was defined as: At least 8 cities in 4 cuntries in Africa have the tls and the infrmatin they need t develp and implement future-prfing and grwth actin plans. The impact was defined as: Cities in Africa take new actins t becme future prfed t climate, envirnment and natural resurce challenges, such that they are inclusive and resilient, and have grwing ecnmies with better service, pprtunities and quality f life. The FCA Nrmative Framewrk was develped t assess cities acrss five key dimensins: Gvernance, Citizenship, Services, Ecnmy and the Natural Envirnment (see link with utcme and impact statements abve). The underlying premise f the Nrmative Framewrk is that if African cities are t be inclusive and resilient, five systems need t wrk in harmny: 1. A gvernance system that is effective, efficient and accuntable 2. A citizenship system that builds strng human and scial capital 3. An ecnmic system that prvides jbs and incme 4. A services system that ensures mbility, energy and envirnmental health 5. An eclgical system that prvides sustenance and prtects against hazards. 2. C I T Y S E L E C T I O N Fur different types f cities were analysed. A metrplitan / city regin (Accra/Ghana) Cities where jurisdictinal bundaries d nt crrespnd t planning and service delivery needs. The Greater Accra Metrplitan Area (GAMA) area was selected as a study case. GAMA is frmed by thirteen (13) metrplitan, municipal and district assemblies. Secndary cities (Uganda) Cities that frm part f a system f cities within a cuntry r within a glbal system f cities. Furteen secndary cities selected. Reginal capitals (Ethipia) Secndary Cities with a high degree f autnmy and imprtance within their sub-natinal cntext. Tw cities selected: Mekelle and Dire Dawa. Ecnmic crridr (Mzambique) Secndary cities that find advantage in develping small ndes and hubs t add value t industry supply chains and reginal distributin centre. Three cities selected: Tete, Nampula and Nacala. Currently, nearly half f Africa s urban dwellers live in relatively small and medium size settlements f less than 300,000 peple, and apprximately 12% live in mega-cities f mre than 5,000,000 peple. By 2030 mre than 40% will still live in small and medium sized twns but there will be a nticeable increase in the percentage (25%) living in mega cities. 3

5 3. A F R I C A N U R B A N T R A N S I T I O N The future f cities in Africa will depend n hw well they manage ecnmic grwth (glbalisatin), demgraphic shifts and climate change. The figures pint t sci-ecnmic stresses, lw prductivity traps and high risk. Acrss the cntinent cities will grw by 315 millin peple in the next 15 years. The urban ppulatin will triple t 1.23 billin by 2050 African yuth will cnstitute the largest labur frce in the wrld at 1.1 billin by Currently mre than 60% f the urban ppulatin live in infrmal settlements Currently 61% f ttal urban emplyment is fund within the infrmal sectr With limited grwth in the public and frmal sectrs, sme 93% f new jb creatin is within the infrmal sectr Sme 92% f emplyment fr wmen is within the infrmal sectr. Africa is warming faster than the glbal average, with a prjected rise f 3 4 C this century The cntinent will face a 20-30% decrease in water availability in vulnerable areas. Sme 90% f energy use is bimass. Figure 1: Drivers Shaping Urbanisatin and City Grwth FCA Team (2016) Hw these 3 drivers are understd and managed at the lcal level will determine the future f cities. In turn effective actin will depend n hw the plitical ecnmy and present distrted incentives are placed at the cre f prgramming. African cities will nt be able t benefit frm the urbanisatin dividend/prductivity miracle and respnd t ecnmic and climate change shcks and stresses withut transfrmatin. The Urban Challenge can be brught dwn t: Unemplyed yuth, living in slums in degraded natural envirnments 4

6 4. S U M M A R Y F I N D I N G Acrss the 5 dimensins f the Nrmative Framewrk sme 23 clear prblems and pprtunities were identified that if taken n bard thrugh effective prgramming culd fundamentally help transfrm the trajectry f African urbanizatin. In summary frm these are, Gvernance: 1: Natinal plicies and urban law undermining the capacity f cities t deliver services. 2: Badly paid and insufficient qualified staff. 3: Inadequate financial resurces and systems t deliver services and ensure accuntability. 4: Land use planning unable t deal with city grwth resulting in increased infrmality and sprawl. 5: Pr planning and management f crss jurisdictin services including transprt and drains. 6: Lack f reliable basic data fr strategic and peratinal planning. 7: Little sharing f relevant experience and learning f thers bth within and between cuntries. 8: Cities withut any r limited lng -term strategic visin and strategy. 9: Land Administratin Systems unable t effectively incrprate custmary land. Ecnmy: 10: High yuth unemplyment and underemplyment in infrmal ecnmy. 11: Infrmal traders and prducers have little well lcated space t trade r prduce frm. 12: Few infrmal activities transfrm int small, medium enterprises undermining emplyment. Citizenship 13: Slum dweller rganisatins are successfully partnering with cities with results. 14: Ecnmy stakehlders prly rganised undermining the ptential f prductive partnerships. 15: Pr priritizatin f needs causing tensin between urban lcal gvernments and the ppulace. Services 16: Mst urban services delivered at high cst and lw quality by infrmal service prviders. 17: Cmmunity built and managed infrastructure delivering imprved infrastructure and service 18: Sme municipal services culd be better prvided thrugh well-structured PPPs. 19: Mst husing is self- built f lw quality and n land with n r weak title. 20: Lw levels f electrificatin undermine ecnmic grwth and human ptential. Envirnment 21: High impact f climate change n cities including sea level rise, drught and fd insecurity. 22: Settlements n envirnmentally vulnerable land mst affected by changing climate and risk. 23: Opprtunities t reduce carbn emissins and adpt lw carbn develpment pathways 5

7 4.1 Results: Output 1 There is high-level supprt t engage in future prfing initiatives frm the Ethipian, Ghanaian, Ugandan and Mzambican Ministries, city gvernments and develpment partners including civil sciety. Based n FCA discussins with natinal cunterparts, it is likely that the scpe f future prgramme cverage will be: Ethipia: Expand t include mre reginal grwth centres (likely 5 r 6 cities) Ghana: GAMA plus expanded cverage t include the lagging nrthern regin cities. Mzambique: Tete Nampula Nacala grwth crridr. Pssible additinal crridr based n natinal pririties. Uganda: 14 secndary cities included as part f FCA. 4.2 Output 2. Critical Research After rapid-city resilient assessments (RCRA) were undertaken acrss all f the cities in 4 cuntries the cmbined stakehlders identified thrugh cnsensus 4 pririty areas that were mst crss cutting. The fllwing critical research questins were identified and cmmissined 1. Hw best t plan fr urban grwth (land expansin)? 2. Hw t imprve energy supply in the cntext f climate change? 3. Hw t better understand and supprt the infrmal ecnmy? 4. What mdalities are best in prviding affrdable services? This research has prvided sme key directin in hw best t manage city grwth and has als helped shape the future research agenda fr African researchers. A key recmmendatin is the need t strengthen African research capacities t respnd t this emerging agenda. 4.3 Output 3. Digital Tls Tw digital tls were either t be develped (Resilience.i) r tested (Gaiasft) during the curse f the FCA. Resilience.i The bjective was t test the viability f develping a decisin making tl useful fr city planning that culd usefully integrate scial, envirnmental and ecnmic mdels. The tl was successfully develped and Prttype / Prf f Cncept successfully established. Allcated funds enabled the develpment f the mdel fr the WASH sectr nly. Fr it t becme a fully integrated platfrm further investment is required. The Knwledge Platfrm (KP) The bjective was t test the relevance f and appetite fr knwledge management as a part f the prcess f managing cities. Usefulness and demand fr further platfrm develpment and take-up was established acrss 3 levels. By Natinal Ministries and/r Planning Authrities in Ethipia, Ghana and Uganda. Natinally within and between cities. Cntinentally thrugh United Cities and Lcal Gvernments f Africa (UCLGA) 6

8 4.4 Output 4: Innvative Studies / Tls The need fr 4 tlkits was identified at the glbal wrkshp that brught all stakehlders tgether and were subsequently develped. These are; City Develpment Strategy 2.0 Tlkit Data Management Tlkit Human resurce benchmark assessment Tlkit Urban risk /Envirnment Risk framewrk. These tlkits still require applied testing and refinement there were n resurce t pilt / test these tlkits during this phase f FCA. Hwever utside the scpe f the FCA these tls are already being cnsidered fr use. 5. F L E X I B L E P R O G R A M M E D E S I G N T effectively respnd t the issues identified a cmprehensive, flexible and demand driven apprach I required that cmbines: Refrm f natinal and lcal plicy, regulatry and legal framewrks t reshape the incentives driving city gvernment perfrmance Brad based capacity building t ensure the required resurces and staff are in place t make city gvernment institutins functinal and effective in ensuring services are efficiently and fairly delivered t all citizens, especially reaching the pr. Investment supprt t make inrads int service backlgs and critically t plan fr urban land expansin in advance t avid very cstly retr-fitting csts: 7