ANNEX 1 Natural Capital Asset Check Proposed Approach October 2013

Transcription

1 ANNEX 1 Natural Capital Asset Check Prpsed Apprach Octber 2013 Intrductin This is the first elabrated versin f the asset check apprach being develped thrugh a scping study fr Defra and the UKNEA fllw-n WP1. Any cmments n this are welcme and shuld be sent t the prject manager, Ian Dickie: ian@eftec.c.uk This prpsed apprach lays ut a series f questins, the answers t which frm the analysis in, and aim t prvide cnclusins frm, a natural capital asset check. The wrking definitin f a natural capital asset check is: An assessment f the current and future perfrmance f natural capital assets, with perfrmance measured in terms f their ability t supprt human well-being. Thus, the purpse f a natural capital asset check is t assess hw changes in a natural capital asset affect human wellbeing. It incrprates cncepts f integrity, perfrmance, red flags and sustainability. It is rganised thrugh a series f questins abut the asset, set ut under the fllwing 5 steps: 1. The asset. 2. Integrity f the asset. 3. Perfrmance f the asset. 4. Asset criticalities. 5. Asset check. A summary table f these 5 steps is set ut in the first sectin f the dcument but shuld be cmpleted last. eftec 1 Nvember 2012

2 The questins are set ut under each step in clured bxes. The bxes include guidance n answering the questins in italics that can be verwritten as the asset check is cmpleted. There is sme duplicatin in use f the evidence fr different purpses, ften as a result f the same evidence being a prxy t answer different questins (e.g. in questin D n ecsystem services and H n ecsystem functins). In these cases answers may be crss-referred t previus respnses. Uncertainty in evidence can be described using the fllwing scale, adpted frm the UKNEA: Well established: high agreement based n significant evidence Established but incmplete evidence: high agreement based n limited evidence Cmpeting explanatins: lw agreement, albeit with significant evidence Speculative: lw agreement based n limited evidence eftec 2 Nvember 2012

3 Summary A summary f the asset check shuld reflect the uncertainties in the evidence available, cnclusins n integrity and sustainability f the natural capital asset, and future sustainability f the asset is assessed in terms f whether it is expected t deliver the target perfrmance, and the presence f red flags. Where these issues are quantified relevant data shuld be included. Table: Summary f natural capital asset check Asset Trends in natural asset integrity Target perfrmance Criticalities Sustainability f perfrmance Red Flags Uncertainties/ Evidence gaps Questins A & B Questin I Questin M Key issues frm part 4, particularly questins Q and R Questin Y Questin Z eftec 3 Nvember 2012

4 1. Natural Capital Asset It is useful t define these parameters fr the analysis clearly at the utset. If a subset f a natural asset is being checked (e.g. peat bgs in Sctland are a subset f all peat bgs in the UK), then this can affect availability f data and interpretatin f results. Our apprach in the scping study fr Defra assumes that an asset needs t have sme physical measurement, and defines natural capital assets as: stck that can be managed r prtected in rder t have a psitive ecnmic r scial value. Hwever, in further wrk lking at the definitin f natural capital we have defined it as: the cnfiguratin f natural resurces and eclgical prcesses, that cntribute thrugh their existence and/r in sme cmbinatin, t human welfare Questin A. Define Natural Capital asset being checked Guidance n Answer Specify natural capital asset, e.g. habitat type and/r ecsystem services (e.g. peat bgs, carbn sequestratin in wdland, all carbn sequestratin in habitats) B. What is the spatial scale fr which the asset check is being cnducted UK, England/ Sctland/ Wales, Reginal, Cunty, Lcal? eftec 4 Nvember 2012

5 C. Define the timescale fr the asset check. Take int accunt rate f change in asset, decisin-making timescales, and timescales ver which services frm the asset can change. Past timescales shuld avid reference t histrical perids (>50 years) unless they are relevant t decisin-making. Different timescales may be apprpriate fr different services frm a natural capital asset. D. What are the main ecsystem services the asset prvides? List main ecsystem services the asset prvides (r cntributes t prviding) eftec 5 Nvember 2012

6 2. Integrity f Natural Capital Asset Tgether, extent and cnditin reflect the integrity f the stck f natural capital, which prduces flws f ecsystem services. Questin Guidance n Answer Trends Past trend Current trend Future Trend Summary f Trends (see key*) E. What is the extent f the natural capital asset? Can be area, vlume, number Describe/ quantify trend Describe/ quantify trend Describe expected future trend Insert symbl F. What is the cnditin f the natural capital asset? Can be measured thrugh different eclgical data, e.g. cnservatin status, age structure, r prxies such as ecsystem prcesses Describe/ quantify trend Describe/ quantify trend Describe expected future trend Insert symbl Uncertainties/ Evidence gaps Give level f uncertainty in analysis* fr D, E and F, and reasns fr this. * Use Uncertainty scale described in intrductin. increasing decreasing Key fr trends evidence shws n trend O n evidence bth increasing and decreasing (this culd reflect ambiguus evidence and/r spatially differing trends) eftec 6 Nvember 2012

7 G. Drivers f changes in extent and cnditin (Nte there may be different drivers f changes in stck and changes in cnditin) Questin List plicy drivers List biphysical drivers List sci-ecnmic & ther drivers Guidance n Answer Plicy drivers Imprtance f plicy drivers Biphysical Drivers Imprtance f biphysical drivers Sci-ecnmic & ther drivers Imprtance f sci-ecnmic and ther drivers H. What are the asset s main ecsystem functins? List imprtant ecsystem functins (r supprting and intermediate ecsystem services) that supprt the main final services frm the asset. Supprting and intermediate services are defined in the UKNEA. Nte that supprting and intermediate services may riginate frm ther assets that cprduce final services. I. Integrity Test: Is the ability f the asset t supprt ecsystem services being maintained? Give details fr different services (if relevant), cnsider the trends under questins E and F and the services frm questin D. If n, what are drivers f decline (see questin G)? Nn-essential supprting infrmatin that can be useful fr decisin-makers includes: - are the ecsystem services prvided by the asset rival (i.e. cnsumptin r use by ne individual reduces the availability fr thers) r nn-rival (i.e. cnsumptin r use by ne individual des nt reduce the availability fr thers) gds? - are the ecsystem services prvided by the asset market (i.e. are they bught and sld in a market) r nn-market (i.e. there is n market in which they are bught and sld) gds? - sme main final services may rely n supprting and intermediate services frm natural capital assets nt cnsidered in the asset check. Links t the eftec 7 Nvember 2012

8 status f these ther assets may be an imprtant factr fr the asset check. It may be pssible t cnsider their status/trend/management within the asset check, but where the links becme cmplex, such analysis may nt be feasible. Hwever, these interdependencies shuld be nted; furthermre the natural capital underpinning the final services in questin may justify a separate asset check. eftec 8 Nvember 2012

9 3. Perfrmance f Natural Capital Asset In this cntext perfrmance is fitness t carry ut the rle which is required f a capital asset. This is regarded as useful because defining the target perfrmance f natural capital assets captures bth the current and future quantity and quality f an asset. Human requirements include basic human needs, but als reflect infinite wants, s the definitin f perfrmance is usually subjective. A NCAC can help distinguish between plicy targets which relate t the state f the natural capital asset (e.g. Water Framewrk Directive targets) and gals in terms f the perfrmance f services (e.g. there are targets fr atmspheric greenhuse gas cncentratins, but nt fr the state bitic natural capital in terms f its capacity t stre carbn i.e. we dn t have a target fr carbn strage in natural habitats). Questin J. Is there a measure f the current utput f ecsystem services frm the asset? K. What gds and benefits d these ecsystem services supprt? L. What evidence exists n the mnetary evidence n the value f sme/all f these services? Guidance n Answer Either a direct measure f levels f ecsystem services (see questin D), r an indicatin f this based n the amunt f the asset (stck) and its ability t prvide the service (cnditin) (see questin I) Ecsystem services, gds and benefits are defined in the UKNEA: services supprt the prvisin f gds t peple, fr wh they have ecnmic, health and/r shared scial values. Valuatin f evidence is useful t understand the rder f magnitude f the value f ecsystem services and f the impacts f changes in levels f services. Interpretatin f valuatin evidence can be time-cnsuming where cmplex evidence needs t be reviewed frm the literature. Best use f available valuatin evidence may use value transfer (see guidelines at: ) and effrt shuld be prprtinate t the imprtance f the evidence. eftec 9 Nvember 2012

10 M. What is the target perfrmance frm the asset? Uncertainties/Evidence gaps Summarise perfrmance: the rle that capital perfrms in prviding beneficial services - see belw fr guidance n definitin What plicy targets are there fr the asset? Give level f uncertainty* in answer t M and reasns fr this. * Use Uncertainty scale described in intrductin. (e.g. maximum sustainable yield fr fish stcks, glbal cncentratins f GHG) Defining perfrmance: Answering these questins can help define perfrmance, but nt all questins can be answered fr all assets What is the trend in the main services the asset prvides? What types f gds are supprted by the asset? Wh benefits frm the gds? What wellbeing results frm the gds? See questin d fr services, and UKNEA synthesis reprt Figure 5 fr trends. (e.g. fd, drinking water, pllutin cntrl) See UKNEA synthesis reprt Figure 10 fr terminlgy Identify the number and lcatin f beneficiaries Use measures f the levels and trends in wellbeing supprted by the asset N. Are any future changes in target perfrmance expected? O. Can future target perfrmance be defined? Hw is target perfrmance expected t change? Cnsider exgenus factrs like thse assciated with the drivers under questin F, and the asset s rle in climate change adaptatin. What is the target level f future perfrmance f the asset? What are the drivers f this (see questin G). Nn-essential supprting infrmatin that can be useful fr decisin-makers includes: - Has target perfrmance changed ver time? If s hw? eftec 10 Nvember 2012

11 - Distributinal issues: what is the distributin f the beneficiaries f the gds supprted by the ecsystem services frm the asset? - D the gds prvided by the ecsystem services frm the asset have use and/r nn-use values? eftec 11 Nvember 2012

12 4. Natural Capital Asset Criticalities Nte that these answers may be very different fr different spatial scales, s Questin B gives imprtant cntext, and apprpriate scale f analysis may need t be recnsidered. Questin P. What is the trajectry f change fr the asset? Q. Are there any standards r agreed limits f change t the asset? R. Are there likely t be any threshld effects? S. What is the reversibility f changes t the asset? T. What is the cumulative effect f impacts n the asset? U. What risks are assciated with current trends in the asset integrity? V. What substitutes exist fr the main ecsystem services frm the asset? Guidance n Answer Specify if any linear r nn-linear changes are knwn r anticipated (see trends frm questins E and F) Specify if there are any relevant standards r limits fr the cnditin f the asset (e.g. adult spawning stck bimass fr fish) r the services frm it (e.g. fish landing quta). State knwledge f any threshlds threshlds can include where the integrity f an asset declines in a nn-linear way, where the influence f feedbacks n an asset change, r where the ability f an asset t recver declines. Can changes t the asset be reversed? (e.g. can the asset, and its functins, be restred r recreated?) What patterns f impacts result frm past, current and future trends and drivers (see questins D, E and F)? Identify risks f significant detrimental impacts: see answers t questins O, and relate this t answers t questins Q T. Fr the services identified in G, are substitutes available? If s what supplies are available r ptentially available? eftec 12 Nvember 2012

13 Uncertainties/Evidence gaps Give level f uncertainty* in analysis and reasns fr this. * Use Uncertainty scale described in intrductin. Nn-essential supprting infrmatin that can be useful fr decisin-makers includes: - What is the level f investment needed in the natural capital t maintain it abve the limits/threshlds identified abve? - What are the distributinal (scial grup/intergeneratinal) implicatins f the criticality identified? - Fr questin U, define n what basis the substitute(s) are identified (e.g. which ecsystem services the substitute prvides). eftec 13 Nvember 2012

14 5. Natural Capital Asset Criticalities Questin Guidance n Answer W. Tradeffs? If ne r mre f the asset s key ecsystem services (see questin D) are increased, des this lead t reductins in ther services? X. Synergies? If ne r mre f the asset s key ecsystem services (see questin D) are increased, des this lead t increases in ther services? Uncertainties/Evidence gaps Y. Sustainability test: is the asset currently able t give the target perfrmance? If yes - will this perfrmance be sustained int the future? If n state why? Give level f uncertainty* in analysis and reasns fr this. * Use Uncertainty scale described in intrductin. Cmpare integrity in questin I and perfrmance in questin M. Relate changes frm questin P and criticalities frm Q and R t future changes identified in questins N and O. Give timescale frm questin C. Is this because target perfrmance is unrealistic, r because integrity f asset is cmprmised, r bth? Z. Red flags? This is a warning if future target perfrmance is at risk, fr example because: - the asset is underperfrming (see questin Y) and cntinuing t decline (see Questin P), r - there is prspect f cllapse (a limit r threshld see questins Q and R) which culd be irrecverable (i.e. being irreversible, see questin S, and with n substitute, see questin U) Uncertainties/Evidence gaps Give level f uncertainty* in analysis and reasns fr this. Use Uncertainty scale described in intrductin. eftec 14 Nvember 2012

15 Reprting If a frmal reprt write-up f the asset check is required, it is suggested the infrmatin abve is presented under these summary heading: State f the asset (extent, cnditin) Drivers/threats t asset Services Drivers influencing future services Future services frm the asset Natural asset integrity test Current and future target asset perfrmance Synergies Threshlds Cumulative impacts Reversibility Uncertainties (missing infrmatin) Sustainability test. eftec 15 Nvember 2012