SLAMM Dynamic Marsh Management Tool Users Guide Final Draft 9/15/2017

Transcription

1 SLAMM Dynamic Marsh Management Tl Users Guide Final Draft 9/15/2017 The SLAMM Dynamic Marsh Management tl allws users t integrate cmplex SLAMM uncertaintyanalysis results ver time and t evaluate them n a land-parcel basis. The relative values f ecsystem services acrss multiple parcels may be evaluated given inputs abut stakehlder values, alternative simulatin scenaris, and uncertain future sea-level rise (SLR). Fr backgrund n the cnceptual mdel behind the tl, please visit: This tl uses an Excel spreadsheet t stre mdel inputs and utputs and uses Visual Basic t perfrm calculatins based n mdified user inputs. A basic understanding f Micrsft Excel is required t use this prduct. This Users guide is designed fr the tl s end user that wishes t lk at different scenaris and t mdify the flexible assumptins abut the relative values f varius ecsystem services. Therefre, the guide assumes that the SLAMM mdel has already been run, that SLAMM mdel results have already been extracted n a parcel basis, and that results are prperly stred in the SLAMM Raw Data and Data Setup tabs. T add new parcels r new sets f SLAMM results t the mdel is a task fr advanced SLAMM users nly. A separate reference sheet will be prepared t guide users thrugh thse tasks. Getting Started Mving thrugh Excel tabs frm left t right: The Instructins tab cntains a link t this infrmatin. The Mdel Summary tab cntains infrmatin abut the sites and scenaris that are included within the mdel. A site is a specific GIS parcel that can be evaluated using this tl. Its definitin can be based n tax maps, r delineatin f individual marsh systems, as tw examples. A scenari cntains the results f a SLAMM simulatin with a specific adaptatin strategy explred. (These results may be uncertainty runs r deterministic). Multiple adaptatin scenaris may be included in the tl at ne time t examine different assumptins, management scenaris, r SLR scenaris. (In terms f csts and incremental benefits f adaptatin strategies, the first scenari in the list is cnsidered the n actin scenari.) Histric Percent Lss rates per year are als included fr infrmatin in this tab. Histric marsh lss rates may be prjected int the future and are cnsidered additive t prjected SLR lsses. (In the NYC example, these rates were derived by cmparing 1974 and 2008 wetland maps fr each parcel. Marsh lsses were assumed t predate significant acceleratin in SLR in these sites.) The Mdel Inputs tab cntains all ther mdel inputs required t run the mdel Beginning year and end year may be set t vary the planning hrizn

2 The Ecsystem Relative Rank fields (hrizntal acrss the tp f the page) carry the results f the survey questin asking Please prvide the relative ranks fr hw imprtant each f the fllwing ecsystem services are t yur decisin-making prcess. Carbn Sequestratin Nutrient Sequestratin Recreatin Habitat Other Nitrgen Sequestratin Phsphrus Sequestratin Dry-land Recreatin Wetland Recreatin Natural services t under-served cmmunities Nektn habitat Habitat fragmentatin/ cnnectivity Fld Vulnerability Reductin Plitical/ Cultural/ Histric value General preservatin f natural areas Ecservice Relative Rank Ttal Relative Rank Mre infrmatin abut the interpretatin f the Ecsystem Relative Rank may be fund in the Ecsystem Services Glssary dcument Site-specific weights: The ecsystem benefits examined here have been related t the acreage predictins f land-cver types that cme ut f SLAMM simulatins (using utility functins. ) Hwever, these equatins d nt take int accunt quality f habitat, fr example. (In ne lcatin with a higher marsh density, mre carbn sequestratin culd be assumed t ccur than anther lcatin with lwer density.) Fr this reasn, site-specific weights are prvided fr the user t add infrmatin abut each site when available. Site-specific "Quality f Habitat," shuld nt reflect the numbers f acres f a particular land-cver type Site 1 Idlewild Inner and Outer Site 2 Alley Creek, Queens Site 3 Lemn Creek, Staten Island Site 4 Pelham Bay Cve Site 5 W.T. Davis Site 6 Udall's Cve, Queens Site-specific weights are especially imprtant fr such categries as recreatin in which the lcatin and histric use f a marsh may be cnsidered in prviding weights. The size f the marsh shuld nt be cnsidered, hwever, when prviding weights. Discunt Factrs: Belw the site-specific weights in the Mdel Inputs tab, a user may experiment with weighting current ecsystem services mre than future ecsystem services using the Discunt Factrs inputs. The table f discunt factrs is used, but it can be ppulated using a discunt rate using the frmula and input in clumn H.

3 Discunt Factrs Discunt Rate: 0% Year Discunt Factr Timestep % % Timestep % % Timestep % % Timestep % % Timestep % % Timestep % % Timestep % % Timestep % % Timestep 9 Timestep 10 Example discunt rate calcuatin interplates within up t 10 timesteps that can be cpied int the discunt factrs table t the left. Belw the discunt factrs is the cst f each adaptatin strategy by parcel (ptinal). These fields allw the user t put a price n each f the adaptatin scenaris by parcel depending n land csts, the extent f land predicted cnverted, marsh-restratin csts, and thin-layer depsitin csts, fr example. Cst Details N Migratin n cst, existing marsh ftprint Migr. Undevelped purchase undevelped land r easement when required Migr. All Dry purchase develped and undevelped land when required Restre t 1974 marsh restratin csts Thin Layer Dep. thin layer depsitin csts Site 1 Idlewild Inner and Outer N / A Site 2 Alley Creek, Queens N / A Site 3 Lemn Creek, Staten Island N / A Site 4 Pelham Bay Cve N / A Site 5 W.T. Davis N / A Site 6 Udall's Cve, Queens N / A Site 7 Adaptatin Strategy Csts (millins f dllars per parcel) Ttal Strategy Cst $ - $ $ $ $ At the bttm f the Mdel Inputs tab is a set f marsh lss fields. These fields allw the user t enter the histrical marsh lss rates fr each parcel. Given lw histrical SLR rates, these histrical marsh lss rates are nt assumed t be frm sealevel rise related factrs. If the user wishes t extraplate these lsses int the future and add them t SLR lsses the assume histrical marsh lss rates cntinue buttn may be checked. This wuld mean that marshes that are rapidly declining wuld be expected t cntinue this decline, whereas marshes that have been histrically shwn t be rbust wuld cntinue that trend as well (prir t any sea-level-rise related lsses)

4 Assume Histrical Marsh Lss Rates Cntinue (Additive t SLR lsses) Site Name Histric Pct. Annual Marsh Lss (yr-1) Site 1 Idlewild Inner and Outer 0.45% Site 2 Alley Creek, Queens 0.66% Site 3 Lemn Creek, Staten Island 0.53% Site 4 Pelham Bay Cve 0.78% Site 5 W.T. Davis 0.54% Site 6 Udall's Cve, Queens 1.84% After all inputs have been edited, click Calculate t start the mdel calculatin (r press <cntrl><shift><r>). Nte Excel will stp receiving inputs fr a number f secnds, view the lwer left f the Excel windw t view mdel-run prgress. The Survey Questins tab is prvided fr reference. It cntains a summary f respnses frm stakehlders regarding the valuatin f varius ecsystem services. NYSERDA survey infrmatin: and The Mdel Outputs tab cntains a basic summary f aggregated utilities calculated ver the simulatin perid Benefits aggregated ver the study perid are presented by wetland-benefit type, by site, and by adaptatin scenari run. These may be autmatically srted using the Srt by pulldwn bx. Wetland-service benefits are unitless but can be cmpared acrss sites and acrss adaptatin strategies. Hwever, these are relative benefits and therefre cannt be cmpared frm ne spreadsheet implementatin t the next (Nassau Cunty SLAMM runs vs. NYC fr example) T the right f the table f benefits are clumns shwing incremental benefits and csts

5 Site number Site Name Adaptatin Scenari Incremental Benefit Cst f Strategy (millins) Cst per Unit Benefit Benefit per unit cst Site 1 Idlewild Inner and Outer Migr. Undevelped Site 2 Alley Creek, Queens Migr. Undevelped Site 3 Lemn Creek, Staten Island Migr. Undevelped Site 4 Pelham Bay Cve Migr. Undevelped N / A Site 5 W.T. Davis Migr. Undevelped The incremental benefit clumn shws hw much the adaptatin strategy has imprved predicted wetland benefits against the n-actin scenari (the n-actin scenari is ften labeled n migratin ). When this is cmbined with the cst f the adaptatin strategy, the cst per unit benefit and benefit per unit cst may be calculated. Generally a user wuld be mst interested in the adaptatin strategy that prvides the highest benefit per unit cst. The Ecsystem Benefits tab cntains additinal pre-made charts that can be used t examine mdel results. Mst f these tables have editable fields that allws the user t custmize the graphic. Fr example a field that says: will allw yu t click n the icn n the right and select ne f the adaptatin strategies and change the graph accrdingly. Cmpnents f Each Site s Utility shws the cmpnents f utility fr each site in a stacked bar chart. ((Nte: yu can select which strategy is being examined using the Strategy pull-dwn bx at the tp f the chart. Yu can als edit which utilities are shwn and which sites using the ther pull dwn bxes marked with.) Utility by Site ver Time shws hw the ecsystem utilities f each site change ver time given SLR effects, histrical marsh lss, and the selected discunt rate. (The default is t shw the sum f all utilities. Hwever, the specific utility being displayed may be edited alng with the strategy at the upper left : ) Utility at ne Site by Strategy ver Time shws hw the ecsystem utilities f ne site acrss all adaptatin strategies mdeled. (The site being displayed and the utilities included may be edited at the upper left) Expected Value Land-Cver Summary shws the predicted quantity f each wetland at each parcel ver the simulatin perid. (Nte: select which site and strategy yu are viewing using the pulldwn bx at the tp left.) The land cver selectin riginally shws nly wetland types, but dry lands and pen water may be selected using the landcver pull dwn bx at the right f the graph: ) The Adaptatin Strategy Benefits tab cntains results shwing the benefits and incremental benefits f each adaptatin strategy. Cmparative Incremental Benefits f Adaptatin Strategies shws the predicted incremental benefit f each adaptatin strategy brken dwn by site. This gives the

6 user an idea f the impact f each adaptatin strategy against the thers as well as the site-specific differences in adaptatin strategy. Incremental Benefits pie chart shws a pie chart f the incremental benefits f ne adaptatin strategy by site. S the relative benefit t each site f each adaptatin strategy may be displayed. The adaptatin scenari chsen may be mdified using the pull-dwn bx at the upper left: Current Utility vs Utility is an interesting bar chart that displays the current wetland benefits as a black bar fr each site fllwed by a set f predictins fr The secnd bar shws the n-actin scenari predicted utility in the year The fllwing bars shw incremental benefits prvided by adding multiple adaptatin strategies t the previus bar. Fr example, the third bar shws the benefit f undevelped-dry-land migratin and the furth shws migratin t all dry land. The fifth shws dry land migratin as well as thin layer depsitin. The final bar shws all adaptatin strategies cmbined including restring marshes t their 1974 ftprint. The take hme message: in sme cases additive adaptatin strategies will allw a marsh t retain its current utility by 2100 and in ther cases they may nt. Estimated Wetland Benefits per Unit Cst chart shws the wetland benefits each adaptatin strategy by site as a functin f that adaptatin strategy cst fr that site. Higher bars indicate that a particular adaptatin strategy is predicted t be mre cst effective at a particular site than lwer bars. The Utility Tabs These tabs describe the relatinship between mdeled wetland types and land cvers r land-cver metrics prduced by the mdel. They are editable fr a mre advanced user and guidance n editing them will be available sn. (Nte t advanced users -- the magnitude f the utility value des nt matter each f these are relative utilities and are then nrmalized by the mdel based n the ecsystem relative ranks. Therefre an ecsystem relative rank fr ne ecsystem service that is twice as large as anther means that the maximum utility fr the first ecsystem service will be twice as high as the maximum utility fr the secnd.) Other tabs t the right These tabs cntain the raw mdel results and sme intermediate inputs and are generally fr the mre advanced user nly.