D R A F T M E M O R A N D U M

Transcription

1 D R A F T M E M O R A N D U M T: Frm: Subject: Je Speaks, CH2M Darin Smith and Matt Lftis Secndary Csts Analysis fr RAB Alternatives Date: August 14, 2017 Wrking n a cnsultant team led by CH2M Hill, Ecnmic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) has prepared this memrandum t evaluate the ptential implicatins f varius rail alignments fr the City f San Francisc s RAB study. This dcument is designed t help illustrate selected cst impacts assciated with identified RAB alignments. The analysis cntained herein des nt take int cnsideratin cnstructin r perating csts f the varius rail alignments, rather it quantifies csts assciated with cnstructin disruptin, prperty lss, and changes in travel time. The three levels f impacts examined in this mem are explained further belw: Temprary Cnstructin Disruptin Csts: Impacts that street clsures will have n aggregate travel times. Lss f parking revenues assciated with street clsures. Grade Separatin Impacts: Impacts that varius grade separatin cnfiguratins will have n aggregate travel times. Diminished prperty values assciated with lst street frntage. Lst bnding ptential frm diminished prperty tax prceeds. Train Travel Time Impacts Value f ptential time savings achieved thrugh the Missin Bay alignment that wuld therwise nt be realized thrugh the DTX r Pennsylvania alignments. page D-35

2 Secndary Csts Analysis f RAB Alternatives Page 2 S u m m a r y f F i n d i n g s 1. Cnstructin f the DTX Cut and Cver prject is expected t last six t seven years and wuld result in significant disruptin csts. Cnstructin f this nature wuld require street clsures f 12 city blcks fr 6 mnths each. These clsures wuld result in increased travel times fr individuals mving t and frm adjacent prperties, as well as thrugh the affected area. EPS estimates that this additinal travel time wuld represent apprximately $88 millin in prductivity lsses ver the cnstructin perid (in Year 2026 dllars). In additin t this, the City f San Francisc wuld lse ut n anther $720,000 in n-street parking revenue during this cnstructin perid. 2. There is cnsiderable variatin in vehicle travel times assciated with grade separatin scenaris fr the DTX (Future with Surface Rail) and Pennsylvania Avenue alignments. A scenari in which 16 th Street becmes an underpass beneath Caltrain and HSR at the current surface grade wuld perfrm the best frm a vehicle travel time savings standpint when cmpared t its alternatives, and even imprves upn existing cnditins. Alternatively, running HSR n the surface with the existing atgrade street cnfiguratin wuld result in substantial delays and prductivity lsses (see Table 3). 3. If the City elects t underg a grade separatin strategy that trenches intersectins and allws HSR t run n the surface, sme prperty wners will lse a prtin f their site s accessibility and value. EPS estimates that in all, 57 such parcels wuld be affected by trenching alng 16 th Street, 7 th Street, and Missin Bay Drive. The cmbined assessed prperty value lss fr all f the affected parcels is estimated t ttal apprximately $114 millin. This diminished prperty value will decrease the City s bnding ability by apprximately $8.3 millin in 2026 dllars. 4. Due t differences in the physical characteristics and alignment f the rail alternatives, the Missin Bay alignment will generate rail travel time savings and assciated prductivity gains cmpared t the DTX r Pennsylvania Avenue alignments. It is estimated that the Missin Bay alignment will result in travel time savings f 0.35 minutes and 0.3 minutes fr Caltrain and HSR respectively. With this time savings applied t millins f annual riders, the annual aggregate time savings is significant. Annually, EPS estimates that rughly 93,000 hurs wuld be saved thrugh the Missin Bay alignment cmpared t the DTX and Pennsylvania Avenue alignments. This represents an annual value f times savings f $1.6 millin, and mre than $80 millin when applied t a perid f 50 years (in 2026 dllars). page D-36

3 Secndary Csts Analysis f RAB Alternatives Page 3 T e m p r a r y C n s t r u c t i n D i s r u p t i n C s t s This sectin f the memrandum seeks t quantify the csts assciated with the nature and length f physical cnstructin f high speed rail infrastructure. Infrmatin prvided t EPS indicates that the cnstructin f the DTX Cut and Cver prject will ccur ver a duratin f 7 years. 1 The cnstructin will be phased and will affect each impacted city blck fr a perid f six mnths. Furthermre, thrugh cnversatins with the larger cnsulting team, EPS assumes that cnstructin will begin in the year 2019 and will be cmplete in the year This cnstructin endeavr will result in the clsure f existing streets and will therefre have measureable impacts n travel times. In particular, individuals that currently mve thrugh this prject area will likely experience lnger travel times as a result f street-clsures. Travel time increases have an adverse effect n a regin s ecnmic utput as delays impact prductivity. Table 1 belw summarizes these travel time impacts by prject year and mnetizes the value f lst time. The annual travel time delay inputs fr this analysis were prvided by Fehr & Peers. It is imprtant t nte that the travel time delays shwn are derived frm estimating the number f trips t destinatins n the affected streets, and are nt representative f any aggregated system-wide travel delays. That being said, this apprach is cnservative in nature and the reality is that additinal system-wide delays will likely ccur. This analysis is cnsistent with the framewrk laid ut by the United States Department f Transprtatin fr mnetizing travel time savings r lsses. As planned, disruptin assciated with the DTX Cut and Cver prject is estimated t result in a lss f apprximately $65.5 millin, r $88 millin in year-2026 dllars.. Table 1 DTX Cut and Cver Cnstructin Travel Time Impacts Cnstructin Year Calendar Year Annual Delay Time (Hrs) Cst f Delayed Time Business Persnal Ttal Business Persnal Ttal 4.6% 95.4% $24.90/ hr $12.90/ hr , , ,182 -$765,336 -$8,223,049 -$8,988, , , ,273 -$775,748 -$8,334,928 -$9,110, , , ,364 -$786,161 -$8,446,807 -$9,232, , , ,455 -$796,574 -$8,558,687 -$9,355, , , ,545 -$806,986 -$8,670,553 -$9,477, , , ,636 -$817,399 -$8,782,433 -$9,599, , , ,727 -$827,812 -$8,894,312 -$9,722,124 Ttal (2016$) 223,936 4,644,246 4,868,182 -$5,576,016 -$59,910,769 -$65,486,784 Ttal (2026$) -$7,493,699 -$80,515,063 -$88,008,762 Surces: CH2M Hill, Fehr and Peers; US Department f Transprtatin; Ecnmic & Plannings Systems. 1 EPS is nt estimating ptential travel time delays frm cnstructin f the Missin Bay alignment. The deep tunneling nature f the Missin Bay alignment will likely have significantly less impact n surface disruptin. page D-37

4 Secndary Csts Analysis f RAB Alternatives Page 4 In additin t increased travel times, rad clsures assciated with the DTX Cut and Cver prject will diminish parking revenues that are currently being captured by the City f San Francisc. In ttal, 12 blcks will need t be clsed fr a perid f 6 mnths each during DTX Cut and Cver cnstructin. These blcks are currently hme t metered n-street parking spaces that accrue parking revenue t the City f San Francisc. Data prvided t EPS indicates that, n average, each blck generates apprximately $10,000 in parking meter revenue per mnth. Table 2 quantifies the lss f parking revenue that will be experienced during this cnstructin perid. Table 2 Lst Parking Revenue Cnstructin Year Blcks Clsed Length f Clsure (mnths) Lst revenue per blck mnth Annual Lst Parking Revenue $10,000 -$120, $10,000 -$120, $10,000 -$120, $10,000 -$120, $10,000 -$120, $10,000 -$120,000 Ttal -$720,000 Surce: San Francisc Planning Department; Ecnmic & Planning Systems This analysis des nt estimate any lss f prperty value resulting frm temprary cnstructin disruptins. The cnstructin perid is temprary, cnsisting f six mnths per city blck and wuld have n real impact n a prperty s inherent value. Hwever, prperty value diminutin is taken int cnsideratin if a parcel experiences any persisting lss f street frntage due t grade separatins. This cmpnent f the analysis is discussed in the fllwing sectin f the memrandum and is summarized n Table 4. page D-38

5 Secndary Csts Analysis f RAB Alternatives Page 5 Gr ade Separ ati n I mpact s Similar t the disruptin csts described abve, grade separatin will have measurable ecnmic implicatins n bth lcal transprtatin and land values. At present, trains regularly disrupt traffic flw at at-grade crssings. With train traffic increasing thrugh diminished Caltrain headways and the intrductin f high speed rail, the number f autmbiles being delayed wuld be expected t increase after prject buildut and further cntribute t time and prductivity lss within San Francisc if there cntinue t be at-grade crssings. Alternatively, new grade separatins wuld allw traffic t mve freely even with trains present, and wuld represent an imprvement ver existing cnditins. The vehicle travel time changes assciated with each alternative have been cntrasted with existing cnditins and are shwn n Table 3. In rder t calculate travel time impacts, Fehr & Peers prvided EPS with average daily autmbile delays crrespnding t the pssible future scenaris. Apprximate daily autmbile delay was given in hurs fr each alternative fr the year Additinally, delay time was prvided fr the year 2016 under the existing cnfiguratin withut electrificatin r HSR. EPS assumed that n travel times savings differences wuld be achieved until the infrastructure prject is cmplete in the year After infrastructure buildut, the grwth in average daily delay time has been extraplated linearly t accunt fr expected general ppulatin and trip generatin grwth. Unlike cnstructin disruptin impacts, travel time delays will be nging and will persist, and increase, fr the duratin f the planned infrastructure. T represent these nging csts, EPS has estimated the travel time implicatins fr each alternative ver a perid f 50 years after HSR service begins. Each alternative is benchmarked against the prjected travel time impacts f the existing cnfiguratin withut high speed rail. Unsurprisingly, the existing cnfiguratin with high speed rail and at-grade crssings is the nly alternative that will experience travel time increases abve and beynd the baseline cnditins. This is due t the greater frequency f train mvements thrugh the study area and the increasing events f at-grade rail crssings. Please nte that these cmparisns accunt nly fr the differences between ptential cnfiguratins f Caltrain and HSR thrugh either the DTX r Pennsylvania Avenue alignment. The findings shwn belw d nt accunt fr any time savings that culd presumably be achieved thrugh the Missin Bay alignment, which may eliminate existing at-grade crssings and assciated delays. page D-39

6 Secndary Csts Analysis f RAB Alternatives Page 6 Table 3 Grade Separatin Travel Time Impacts Calendar Year Existing At- Grade Crssings withut HSR Daily Travel Time Delay (hurs) 1 Annual Travel Time Csts 2 Existing At- Grade Crssing with HR 16th St. Underpass Belw Rail At- Grade Rail Undergrund with 16th St. At- Grade Existing At- Grade Crssings withut HSR Existing At- Grade Crssing with HR 16th St. Underpass Belw Rail At-Grade Rail Undergrund with 16th St. At- Grade ,036 1, $3,482,589 $4,179,107 $2,089,554 $2,507, ,089 1, $3,662,723 $4,395,268 $2,197,634 $2,637, ,143 1, $3,842,857 $4,611,429 $2,305,714 $2,766, ,196 1, $4,022,991 $4,827,589 $2,413,795 $2,896, ,250 1, $4,203,125 $5,043,750 $2,521,875 $3,026, ,304 1, $4,383,259 $5,259,911 $2,629,955 $3,155, ,357 1, $4,563,393 $5,476,071 $2,738,036 $3,285, ,411 1, ,016 $4,743,527 $5,692,232 $2,846,116 $3,415, ,464 1, ,054 $4,923,661 $5,908,393 $2,954,196 $3,545, ,518 1, ,093 $5,103,795 $6,124,554 $3,062,277 $3,674, ,571 1, ,131 $5,283,929 $6,340,714 $3,170,357 $3,804, ,625 1, ,170 $5,464,063 $6,556,875 $3,278,438 $3,934, ,679 2,014 1,007 1,209 $5,644,196 $6,773,036 $3,386,518 $4,063, ,732 2,079 1,039 1,247 $5,824,330 $6,989,196 $3,494,598 $4,193, ,786 2,143 1,071 1,286 $6,004,464 $7,205,357 $3,602,679 $4,323, ,839 2,207 1,104 1,324 $6,184,598 $7,421,518 $3,710,759 $4,452, ,893 2,271 1,136 1,363 $6,364,732 $7,637,679 $3,818,839 $4,582, ,946 2,336 1,168 1,401 $6,544,866 $7,853,839 $3,926,920 $4,712, ,000 2,400 1,200 1,440 $6,725,000 $8,070,000 $4,035,000 $4,842, ,054 2,464 1,232 1,479 $6,905,134 $8,286,161 $4,143,080 $4,971, ,107 2,529 1,264 1,517 $7,085,268 $8,502,321 $4,251,161 $5,101, ,161 2,593 1,296 1,556 $7,265,402 $8,718,482 $4,359,241 $5,231, ,214 2,657 1,329 1,594 $7,445,536 $8,934,643 $4,467,321 $5,360, ,268 2,721 1,361 1,633 $7,625,670 $9,150,804 $4,575,402 $5,490, ,321 2,786 1,393 1,671 $7,805,804 $9,366,964 $4,683,482 $5,620, ,375 2,850 1,425 1,710 $7,985,938 $9,583,125 $4,791,563 $5,749, ,429 2,914 1,457 1,749 $8,166,071 $9,799,286 $4,899,643 $5,879, ,482 2,979 1,489 1,787 $8,346,205 $10,015,446 $5,007,723 $6,009, ,536 3,043 1,521 1,826 $8,526,339 $10,231,607 $5,115,804 $6,138, ,589 3,107 1,554 1,864 $8,706,473 $10,447,768 $5,223,884 $6,268, ,643 3,171 1,586 1,903 $8,886,607 $10,663,929 $5,331,964 $6,398, ,696 3,236 1,618 1,941 $9,066,741 $10,880,089 $5,440,045 $6,528, ,750 3,300 1,650 1,980 $9,246,875 $11,096,250 $5,548,125 $6,657, ,804 3,364 1,682 2,019 $9,427,009 $11,312,411 $5,656,205 $6,787, ,857 3,429 1,714 2,057 $9,607,143 $11,528,571 $5,764,286 $6,917, ,911 3,493 1,746 2,096 $9,787,277 $11,744,732 $5,872,366 $7,046, ,964 3,557 1,779 2,134 $9,967,411 $11,960,893 $5,980,446 $7,176, ,018 3,621 1,811 2,173 $10,147,545 $12,177,054 $6,088,527 $7,306, ,071 3,686 1,843 2,211 $10,327,679 $12,393,214 $6,196,607 $7,435, ,125 3,750 1,875 2,250 $10,507,813 $12,609,375 $6,304,688 $7,565, ,179 3,814 1,907 2,289 $10,687,946 $12,825,536 $6,412,768 $7,695, ,232 3,879 1,939 2,327 $10,868,080 $13,041,696 $6,520,848 $7,825, ,286 3,943 1,971 2,366 $11,048,214 $13,257,857 $6,628,929 $7,954, ,339 4,007 2,004 2,404 $11,228,348 $13,474,018 $6,737,009 $8,084, ,393 4,071 2,036 2,443 $11,408,482 $13,690,179 $6,845,089 $8,214, ,446 4,136 2,068 2,481 $11,588,616 $13,906,339 $6,953,170 $8,343, ,500 4,200 2,100 2,520 $11,768,750 $14,122,500 $7,061,250 $8,473, ,554 4,264 2,132 2,559 $11,948,884 $14,338,661 $7,169,330 $8,603, ,607 4,329 2,164 2,597 $12,129,018 $14,554,821 $7,277,411 $8,732, ,661 4,393 2,196 2,636 $12,309,152 $14,770,982 $7,385,491 $8,862,589 Ttal (in 2016$) $394,793,527 $473,752,232 $236,876,116 $284,251,339 Ttal (in 2026$) $530,569,487 $636,683,385 $318,341,692 $382,010,031 Savings Cmpared t Existing At-Grade withut HSR -$106,113,897 $212,227,795 $148,559,456 [1] Fehr & Peers prvided daily autmbile delay estimates fr the years 2016 and EPS has extraplated this delay time linearly t adjust fr future delays assciated with additinal vehicular traffic ver time. [2] EPS is using the US DOT standard fr mnetized value f time f $13.45 per hur. This is a blended figure that includes bth persnal and business travel. Additinally, EPS is using an annualizatin factr f 250 days per year, cnsistent with ther nging studies in San Francisc. Surces: Fehr & Peers; US Department f Transprtatin; Ecnmic & Planning Systems. page D-40

7 Secndary Csts Analysis f RAB Alternatives Page 7 As demnstrated in the previus table, a grade separatin in which 16 th Street is cnverted t an underpass beneath rail tracks at the current grade wuld enjy the greatest travel time benefits f any f the identified alternatives. Hwever, fr this alternative t functin effectively, the City has indicated that recnfiguratins wuld be required t bth 16 th Street and 7 th Street. The Department f Public Wrks and the Planning Department have indicated that 7 th Street wuld be depressed in a trench frm rughly Brannan Street n the nrth t Hubbell Street n the suth, befre returning t the current grade level as it crsses ver 16 th Street. T achieve a grade separatin at 7 th and 16 th, 16 th Street wuld itself be depressed in a trench frm rughly Wiscnsin Street t 4 th Street. A trenching prject f this nature wuld result in significant lss f street frntage fr many prperty wners within the study area. The reductin f street frntage wuld likely be detrimental t prperty values as it wuld reduce a parcel s accessibility. While frecasting the exact diminutin f prperty value that wuld result frm this trenching prject is impssible, EPS has develped a cnservative methdlgy t estimate the general rder f magnitude f lst prperty value. This methdlgy is based n tw primary principles: 1) there is a relatinship between the percentage f lst street frntage and the crrespnding reductin in prperty value, and 2) any given site will maintain its inherent land value regardless f frntage lst. That being said, EPS assumes that the percent f street frntage lst is directly prprtinal t the percent f prperty value diminutin. Furthermre, EPS is using a cnservative assumptin that even if a parcel lses its entire street frntage and assciated access pints, it can still be sld t an adjacent land wner fr a ptential expansin r redevelpment prject, thus maintaining its land value. Fr example, a prperty that has an assessed value f $20 millin, split evenly between land value and imprvement value ($10 millin each) and suffering a 50 percent reductin in street frntage is assumed t have a new value f $15 millin ($10 millin land value remains plus 50 percent f the $10 millin imprvement value). Table 4 illustrates that a future trenching prject f this magnitude wuld result in apprximately $114 millin f diminished prperty value. Figure 1 prvides a visual representatin f the affected parcels that are aggregated in the table belw. Table 4 Diminished Prperty Value frm Trenching Prject Percent f Frntage Lst # f Parcels Aggregated Lss f Value 0-24% 33 -$26,276, % 9 -$37,060, % 12 -$50,225, % 3 -$365,958 Ttal 57 -$113,927,993 Surce: San Francisc Department f Public Wrks; Ecnmic & Planning Systems page D-41

8 Secndary Csts Analysis f RAB Alternatives Page 8 Figure 1 Parcels Impacted by Trenching Prject page D-42

9 Secndary Csts Analysis f RAB Alternatives Page 9 The reductin in prperty value that wuld be experienced thrugh the grade separatin trenching prject wuld adversely impact the City s available bnding ptential as the City wuld lse access t critical tax revenues frm which a bnd culd be repaid. EPS estimates this lst bnding ptential at apprximately $8.3 millin in Year 2026 dllars the timeframe used by CH2M Hill and the City t estimate RAB cnstructin csts. Table 5 Lst Bnding Ptential frm Diminished Prperty Values Item Value 2021 Prperty Lss Assciated with Trenching -$113,927,993 Lst Annual Prperty Tax General Fund Share 1 -$634,351 Lst Bnding Ptential 2016$ 2 -$6,343,511 Lst Bnding Ptential 2026$ -$8,276,843 [1] Assuming percent f the 1 percent annual tax levy t the City's General Fund. [2] Accrding t City surces, bnding ptential is equal t 10 times that f annual revenue. F u t u r e T r a i n T r a v e l T i m e S a v i n g s Due t differences in track curves, vertical changes, and ther factrs, the alternative rail alignments have different implicatins fr the pace at which trains can reach their destinatins. These train speed differences can be critical in HSR achieving its planned trip duratin frm San Francisc t Ls Angeles, and als can mean significant value fr its riders. Accrding t CH2M Hill, there is n difference between the travel time savings fr Caltrain r HSR between the DTX and Pennsylvania alignments. Hwever, the Missin Bay alignment wuld achieve mdest time savings per trip when cmpared t its alternatives. Table 6 belw dcuments the calculatins f annual time savings fr the Missin Bay alignment and mnetizes this time based n USDOT standards. EPS estimates this mnetary value f time savings t be $1.2 millin annually in 2016 dllars. This figure is shwn as a psitive value as it represents the time savings assciated with the Missin Bay alternative. Alternatively, this figure culd be lked at as an pprtunity cst fr either the DTX r Pennsylvania alignments. When valued in 2026 dllars ver a 50-year perid, the travel time savings f the Missin Bay alignment is apprximately $81.8 millin. page D-43

10 Secndary Csts Analysis f RAB Alternatives Page 10 Table 6 Missin Bay Train Travel Time Savings Item Caltrain HSR Ttal Travel Time Savings (minutes per trip) Daily Riders at Buildut 31,500 35,460 66,960 Annual Riders at Buildut 1 7,875,000 8,865,000 16,740,000 Annual Time Savings (Hrs) 45,938 44,325 90,263 Annual Value f Time Savings (2016$) 2 $619,697 $597,944 $1,217,641 Annual Value f Time Savings (2026$) $832,821 $803,587 $1,636,408 Value ver 50 Years (in 2026$) $41,641,039 $40,179,354 $81,820,393 [1] Reflects annualizatin factr f 250 day per year, cnsistent with ther nging studies in San Francisc [2] Based n the US DOT standard fr mnetized value f time f $13.45 per hur Surces: CH2M Hill; US DOT; Ecnmic & Planning Systems page D-44