Nova Scotia Power Integrated Resource Plan Terms of Reference

Transcription

1 Nva Sctia Pwer Integrated Resurce Plan Terms f Reference Objective T develp a lng-term Preferred Resurce Plan that establishes the directin fr NS Pwer t meet custmer demand and energy requirements, and envirnmental bligatins in a csteffective, safe and reliable manner acrss a reasnable range f freseeable futures; and t develp an Actin Plan describing the majr tasks required t implement a n regrets strategy 1 that aligns with the Preferred Resurce Plan during the first five years f the planning hrizn. Preamble In its letter f December 18, 2013 the Nva Sctia Utility and Review Bard (UARB, Bard) directed NS Pwer t undertake Integrated Resurce Plan (IRP) develpment. The Bard prvided that the IRP develpment prcess shuld fllw a similar cllabrative apprach t that emplyed in the 2007 and 2009 IRP prcesses, with ne significant change. The Bard has directed NS Pwer t prvide the Bard s cnsultant, Synapse Energy Ecnmics, with the input data Synapse will require t cnduct mdeling analyses using Strategist and Plexs in rder t supplement the mdeling prepared by NS Pwer. The Bard als stated that stakehlder cnsultatin is t be an integral cmpnent f the prcess. The Bard anticipates that a final IRP reprt will be filed by Nva Sctia Pwer by Octber 15, Apprach In develping the Integrated Resurce Plan, NS Pwer will: Apply the IRP framewrk as described belw in cllabratin with UARB staff and its cnsultants, and in cnsultatin with custmer representatives; and Engage interested parties in the develpment f assumptins, future scenaris and review f mdeling results. Scpe The IRP will cnsider a 25-year Planning Hrizn ( ). The primary steps f the Integrated Resurce Planning prcess will be: establish evaluatin criteria; develp input assumptins; evaluate ptential resurce plans; select the Preferred Resurce Plan and Actin plan; and File the IRP Reprt. Sme degree f iteratin may be required between steps. The steps are: 1 A n regrets strategy is ne in which future decisins are unlikely t be negatively affected by earlier decisins made. 1 f 7

2 1. Develp criteria fr evaluatin f varius plans and selectin f a Preferred Resurce Plan. 2. Identify the majr input assumptins which will drive evaluatin and selectin f the Preferred Resurce Plan. Develp prjectins f the mst likely values fr each f thse majr input assumptins ver the planning hrizn, as well as prjectins f plausible high and lw values f thse assumptins ver that hrizn. These majr input assumptins include, but are nt necessarily limited t: a. Lad frecasts fr a range f pssible future supply requirements. b. Ranges f perating, capital and financial assumptins fr the planning hrizn. c. Technical and ecnmic characteristics f realistic supply-side and demand-side alternatives t meet future lad, emissins and ther requirements. d. Envirnmental regulatins. e. Renewable Electricity Standard requirements. f. Develp planning wrlds (i.e. sets f related assumptins t reflect reasnable ptential planning scenaris). g. Treatment f end effects fr evaluatin and Preferred Resurce Plan selectin. 3. Evaluatin f ptential resurce plans: a. Perfrm a screening analysis t determine which alternatives are t be evaluated further in the IRP prcess and which can be remved frm further cnsideratin. Resurce ptins may exhibit synergistic effects n verall system csts r benefits that are difficult t discern at the screening stage, r that may be difficult t quantify. Thus, this step will aim fr inclusivity, t avid premature rejectin f ptins. b. Evaluate alternative plans in rder t determine the Preferred Resurce Plan. c. Perfrm sensitivity analysis t determine the effect f realistic variatins in input assumptins t test plan rbustness. The results f these sensitivity analyses may lead t a mre detailed analysis f certain f the assumptin values develped in step tw. d. Assess preferred capacity plan t evaluate the prpsed assets. 4. Select Preferred Resurce plan and Develp Actin Plan describing majr tasks required t implement a n regrets strategy that aligns with the Preferred Resurce Plan during the first five years f the planning hrizn. 5. Prepare final reprt and Actin Plan. File with UARB. IRP Framewrk Purpse The IRP is a cmprehensive and public utility planning exercise that integrates supply and demand-side ptins t develp a lng-term Preferred Resurce Plan fr the utility. The resultant Preferred Resurce Plan is a rad-map t guide the utility s strategy fr meeting its resurce needs ver the planning hrizn. It is directinal, nt prescriptive in nature. The Preferred Resurce Plan des nt cmmit the utility t certain curses f actin r freclse ptins determined t be in the interests f ur custmers subsequent t cmpletin f the IRP 2 f 7

3 prcess. Instead, the Preferred Resurce Plan is meant t prvide the utility with sufficient flexibility t effectively accmmdate a range f future uncertainties. As a result, the utility is expected t adhere t the strategy expressed thrugh the Actin Plan. Prcess The bjective functin is the minimizatin f the cumulative present wrth f the annual revenue requirements ver the planning hrizn adjusted fr end-effects and subject t a number f cnsideratins, including: System reliability requirements; Plan rbustness - the ability f a plan t withstand realistic ptential changes t key assumptins; Flexibility - the absence f cnstraints n future decisins arising frm the selectin f a particular plan; Future regulatry emissins utlk; and Timing and rates effects - the timing and magnitude f benefits relative t the timing and magnitude f required expenditures and/r rates impacts. Mdeling assumptins will include financial analysis assumptins, emissins cnstraints, renewable requirements, lad frecast, supply-side ptins and demand-side ptins, fuel and purchased pwer cst frecasts. Where apprpriate, NS Pwer will address cntrasting views abut reasnable assumptins thrugh sensitivity analyses. NS Pwer will cnsider technically and ecnmically viable supply-side technlgies by evaluating perating characteristics, capital and perating csts and peratinal assumptins. The ptential rle and range f ptins f demand-side management in a resurce plan will be assessed. Estimated DSM csts and related demand and energy effects will be included in the IRP analysis. NS Pwer s planning mdels will be emplyed t evaluate a reasnable, but nt unlimited, number f alternative plans as part f an Analysis Plan. The Analysis Plan will describe hw Strategist (and when apprpriate, Plexs) will be used t determine the relative value f different resurce plans. The lng-term resurce planning tl Strategist will be emplyed t derive ptimized resurce plans fr the planning hrizn. Once specific, realistic plans are identified, they will be assessed against the bjective and the final criteria. Additinally, the preferred plans will be evaluated fr peratinal feasibility using Plexs where apprpriate. IRP Deliverables 1. Criteria fr evaluatin f varius plans and selectin f Preferred Resurce Plan. The primary criterin will be cumulative present wrth f the annual revenue requirements f the resurce plan ver the planning hrizn. Additinal criteria will include System reliability requirements, Plan rbustness, Flexibility, Future regulatry 3 f 7

4 emissins utlk, Timing and rates effects, and cnsideratin f end effects that extend beynd the planning hrizn. 2. Majr input assumptins Lad Frecast NS Pwer has traditinally emplyed an ecnmetric lad frecast t prvide annual energy cnsumptin by custmer sectr and annual peak system demand. The Cmpany has develped an End-Use Mdel frecast tl and will examine hw best t utilize the mdels during the IRP prcess. Supply-side Optins NS Pwer will prvide a summary f viable supply-side ptins, including emissins abatement technlgies. The summary will identify the cst and perating characteristics f the varius technlgies and discuss the pprtunity and limitatins f these within the pwer system. A screening f the technlgies will be cmpleted using publicly available infrmatin and fcusing n the fllwing parameters: Cst; Flexibility; Available, cmmercialized technlgy; System stability; Fuel cnsideratins; and Emissins utlk. Included in the supply-side assessment will be: Optimizatin f existing generatin; Renewables; Slid fuel generatin; Gas-fired generatin; Strage; Strage enhancements t existing hydrelectric facilities Market pening effects including distributed generatin Emissins management ptins including abatement technlgies, fuel chice and ther ptins; Emerging technlgies, particularly thse expected t be cmmercially available by 2025; and Enhanced intercnnectin, Nva Sctia transmissin expansin and pwer purchasing. 4 f 7

5 Demand-side Optins This prcess will examine the rle and apprach t demand-side management initiatives in Nva Sctia in the cming years t develp assumptins regarding the quantity f reductins, the ability f DSM t cntribute t lad shaping and the ptimal levels f DSM fr different system cnditins. NS Pwer will cnsider ENSC s input frm its DSM ptential assessment and ther reprts and studies when frecasting energy savings ver the planning hrizn. Nva Sctia Pwer will als cnsider input frm stakehlders regarding the utilizatin f lad as a resurce. Stakehlders will be engaged in the calculatin methdlgy f the avided csts f DSM. The avided csts will be calculated based n the reference plan(s). Basic Assumptins Nva Sctia Pwer will file a Basic Mdeling Assumptins dcument cntaining a cnslidatin f all mdeling assumptins. This will include the planning wrlds (i.e. sets f related assumptins t reflect reasnable ptential planning scenaris). 3. Evaluatin f ptential resurce plans Plan Integratin Plan scenaris will be develped based n cmbinatins f supply-side and demand-side ptins as described abve. The alternative plans will be assessed using the Cmpany s planning sftware. Plans will be ranked accrding t cumulative net present wrth f the revenue requirements with cmmentary n the rates impacts f the plans. Sensitivity Analysis The IRP prcess invlves adptin f a variety f assumptins, sme f which may invlve significant uncertainty. Views n these assumptins may vary significantly. Reflecting this, sensitivities will be identified against which t assess the varius cmpeting resurce plans. Ultimately the test f the sundness f the Preferred Resurce Plan is its ability t enable NS Pwer t prvide reliable service at reasnable cst/rates impact acrss a range f wrlds/scenaris and assumptin values. 4. Prepare Final Reprt and Actin Plan. File with UARB. The IRP will culminate in a reprt t the UARB which will address the fllwing areas: 5 f 7

6 1. Backgrund/Prcess Overview. 2. Stakehlder engagement prcess. 3. Criteria fr evaluatin f the varius plans. 4. Lad frecast f future supply requirements. 5. Sets f alternative supply-side and DSM alternatives t meet future system requirements. 6. Screening analysis used t determine which alternatives were evaluated. 7. Evaluatin f alternative plans in rder t determine the least cst plans and rates impact. 8. Sensitivity analysis n the least cst plans and ther selected plans t determine the rbustness f the plans t variatins in input assumptins. 9. Preferred Resurce Plan. 10. Avided cst f DSM methdlgy methd utilized and results. 11. Actin Plan. Actins required ver the next 5 years t meet lad prjectins and ther regulatry and envirnmental requirements thrugh implementatin f a n regrets strategy that fllws the Preferred Resurce Plan. Stakehlder Engagement The IRP framewrk and the resultant plan will frm the fundatin fr demand-side and supplyside investments. Stakehlder input is an integral part f the prcess. The Cmpany will prmte transparency with stakehlders in assumptin develpment and plan evaluatin thrugh the distributin f draft assumptins fr stakehlder review and Technical cnferences n assumptins and mdeling results. While the IRP prcess will prvide structure and enable direct stakehlder input t NS Pwer s planning prcess, it is imprtant t acknwledge that uncertainty will cntinue t exist in key areas. Despite this uncertainty, decisins will need t be made. NS Pwer will cnsult with stakehlders at apprpriate pints in the planning prcess and in a manner which delivers value t all invlved. Cnfidential Infrmatin NS Pwer will make reasnable effrts t use publicly available infrmatin in the develpment f this IRP. With respect t transmissin cnfidential infrmatin, NS Pwer will cmply with the OATT Standards f Cnduct. 6 f 7

7 IRP Prcess Timeline Summary 1. Terms f Reference submitted t UARB fr apprval 2. Cmments by interested parties 3. UARB apprval f Terms f Reference N later than January 22 January 29 February 7 4. Public advertising February 15 and Ntice f Intentin t Participate by Interested Parties February Intrductin t IRP Technical Cnference and IRP Assumptins Sessin with Stakehlders 7. Draft assumptins including lad frecast, supply and demand side ptins cmpiled and issued t stakehlders alng with discussin f apprach t mdeling analysis (i.e. Analysis Plan) (IRP Prcess Step 2) 8. Stakehlder cmments n assumptins and Analysis Plan (IRP Prcess Step 2) 9. Final cnslidated mdeling assumptins and Analysis Plan issued (IRP Prcess Step 2) March 7 March 14 March 26 April Interim Analysis Prgress Reprt Technical Cnference June Base scenaris fr alternative Plans established and sensitivities identified (IRP Prcess Step 3) 12. Develp analysis results and issue t stakehlders (IRP Prcess Steps 3 and 4) 13. Stakehlder Technical Cnference n Analysis Results (IRP Prcess Steps 3 and 4) July 24 September 5 September Draft reprt filed with stakehlders September Cmments frm stakehlders Octber Final reprt filed with UARB (IRP Prcess Step 5) Octber 15 7 f 7