The Economic Outlook for Investors and Business Decision Makers
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1 The Economic Outlook for Investors and Business Decision Makers Dr. Mark G. Dotzour Chief Economist Real Estate Center Texas A&M University
2 Check Out The Center s Blog Dotzour comments weekly on the following topics of interest to the real estate and related industries: Global and U.S. economic trends Federal reserve monetary policy Commercial and residential real estate trends Government policies impacting real estate
3 Corporate Profits (With Inventory Valuation Adjustment & Capital Consumption Adjustment) $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 Billions $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 Jan-10 Jan-08 Jan-06 Jan-04 Jan-02 Jan-00 Jan-98 Jan-96 Jan-94 Jan-92 Jan-90 Source: Department of Commerce
4 The Economy: Massive Unemployment Benefits Decline
5 Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft
6 Trade Weighted Exchange Index: Major Currencies
7 General Merchandise Retail Sales Same Store Sales % Change from Year Earlier Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Jan-99 Jan-98 Source: Redbook Instinet Research
8 Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos & Light Trucks
9 Employment Growth Rates U.S. Nov-11 Aug-11 May-11 Feb-11 Nov-10 Aug-10 May-10 Feb-10 Nov-09 Aug-09 May-09 Feb-09 Nov-08 Aug-08 May-08 Feb-08 Nov-07 Aug-07 May-07 Feb-07 Nov-06 Aug-06 May-06 Feb-06 Nov-05 Aug-05 May-05 Feb-05 U.S.
10 With All of This Positive Energy, Why Aren t We Growing Faster? Making Business and Investment Decisions in a World of Continuous Exogenous Shocks
11 The Economic Model Keep your right elbow in.
12 The Exogenous Shock You get struck by lightning walking off the first tee.
13 Under Stable Conditions You Can Plan, Execute and Profit
14 Conditions From An Investor s Perspective
15 Conditions From A Business Owner s Perspective
16 Conditions From A Retiree s Perspective Unfortunately, Conditions Are Far From Stable.
17 Nobody Knows What will employee health care cost? What will corporate and individual tax rates be? What will the capital gains tax be? When will Congress turn loose of FRANNIE? How long will it take to foreclose and sell 4.5 to 6 million houses with delinquent loans? Why not give incentives to buy foreclosed homes? Will large European banks fail this year? When will US regulators allow banks to lend for real estate again? How to comply with Dodd-Frank rules?
18 Wage and Salary Compensation as Percent of National Income Texas US Q1948 1Q1951 1Q1954 1Q1957 1Q1960 1Q1963 1Q1966 1Q1969 1Q1972 1Q1975 1Q1978 1Q1981 1Q1984 1Q1987 1Q1990 1Q1993 1Q1996 1Q1999 1Q2002 1Q2005 1Q2008 1Q2011
19 Transfer Payments as a Percent of National Income Texas US 1Q1948 1Q1951 1Q1954 1Q1957 1Q1960 1Q1963 1Q1966 1Q1969 1Q1972 1Q1975 1Q1978 1Q1981 1Q1984 1Q1987 1Q1990 1Q1993 1Q1996 1Q1999 1Q2002 1Q2005 1Q2008 1Q2011
20 Zero-interest Fed Policy Has Reduced Annual Interest Income to Americans by Almost $1.5 Trillion Since 2008 $6,000 Interest Income in Billions $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $ e
21 Consumers Paying Down Debt for First Time in 50 Years
22 Households Reducing Mortgage Debt
23 Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
24 Small Business Outlook Now Is A Good Time To Expand 30 % of Respondents Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Jan-99 Jan-98 National Federation of Independent Business
25 Corporate Hiring Plans: Next 6 Months Q3-11 Q2-11 Q1-11 Q4-10 More Jobs 36% 51% 52% 45% Less Jobs 24% 11% 11% 18% Source: Business Roundtable
26 The Housing Market
27 People Who Plan to Buy a Home in the Next Six Months 10.0 % of Respondents Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Jan-99 Jan-98 Source: The Conference Board
28 Households Have Lost Almost $8 Trillion in Real Estate Equity
29 Housing Market: New Single-Family Houses Sold
30 Real Estate Lending Capacity is Back There are 587 banks in Texas. Only 11 have CRE loans in excess of 300% of tangible common equity. Only 41 have ADC loans in excess of 100% of tangible common equity. Source: FBR Capital Markets & Co. Houston, Texas However, bank regulators still discourage banks from making real estate loans.
31 International Capital Flow 1983 to to to to to to to 2011 U.S. Commercial RE Japanese Stocks Asian Tigers U.S. Stocks U.S. Commercial RE BRIC Countries and Commodities U.S. Treasuries, Gold, Swiss Franc U.S. Trophy CRE Next stop U.S. stocks? Next stop U.S. commercial real estate
32 Conclusions Look for slow, positive job growth in 2012 Unemployment rate to continue downward trend Texas employment picture double the national average Interest rates to stay low, possibly go lower Most business decisions postponed another year Housing market won t recover until 4.5 million homes are foreclosed Slowdown in Europe, China and India U.S. regaining competitive edge in manufacturing
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