US ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Joseph Brusuelas Chief Economist RMS US LLP. October 2016

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2 US ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Joseph Brusuelas Chief Economist RMS US LLP October 2016

3 US Economic Outlook Base Case: Trend US growth near 2 percent in 2016 Long-term growth trend 1.5 percent Sustained growth above 2% implies risk of rising inflation, labor market tightening, and rising wages Q3 16 GDP tracking at 2.4% 2016 Recession probability near 20% Middle market business index indicated slowing growth mid-year Household consumption to remain solid near 2.5 percent Service spending remains solid. Q2 16 consumption tracking increased at 4.3% pace Likely to slow in Q3 16 to more sustainable pace near 3% Residential recovery accelerates Starts to 1.1 million at annualized pace Traditional building season underway Major supply issues in new home markets

4 Millions Residential Investment Housing Starts Building Permits (2 Month Lead) Source: RSM US, US Census

5 US Growth Forecast Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4' Real GDP Unemployment CPI PCE Core Central Bank Rate 3-Month Rate 2-Year Note 10-Year Note EUR/USD N/A

6 Percentage Probability Recession Probability Low Source: RSM US Recessions Recession Probability Index

7 US Economic Outlook Fixed Business Investment Still Contracting Dependent on floor in oil, energy and commodities holding Corporate earnings contracted in five of the past six quarters Monitor capital expenditures as US nears election RSM MMBI indicates firms pulling back on capital expenditures and inventories going forward Government spending supportive of growth Lifting of fiscal ceiling agreement to add 0.2 ppts to growth in 2016 Highway spending bill supportive of growth Temporary government spending bill keeps federal government operating until December 9 Major risks are external and around 2016 US election Policy uncertainty rising as election intensifies Risk to capital expenditures and hiring.

8 US Economic Outlook Domestic Economic Challenges Regional variation in economic growth accelerating Dodd-Frank asymmetrically impacting U.S. northeast Strong dollar negatively impacting manufacturing in upper Midwest. Bank and insurance business model is at risk due to zero interest rate policy State of national infrastructure holding back growth Political polarization a risk should recession arrive in 2017 due to diminishing returns from monetary policy and need for fiscal stimulus once business cycle comes to an end.

9 Index Modest Manufacturing Rebound 80 ISM Manufacturing ISM New Orders Contraction=Less Than 50 Recession= Less Than Source: RSM US, Bloomberg

10 Year-Over-Year Percentage Change Modest Manufacturing Rebound Industrial Production Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durables Mining

11 Manufacturing Outlook: Autos Auto Outlook Auto spending still at robust levels Inventories remain well managed How long can automakers sustain incentive based invoice pricing Subprime and leasing as a percentage of total transactions Drivers Demographics Technology and Connectivity Fuel Efficiency Age of the U.S. fleet Challenges Tesla Apple and Google Self driving cars and ride sharing

12 Days Supply Auto Inventories Well Managed Days Supply=61 (RHS) Manageable Inventory Days Supply= Source: RSM US, Bloomberg

13 Manufacturing Outlook: Aerospace Orders Boeing Backlogs: 5 Years for narrow body and wide body aircraft Orders for Boeing 737 s and A320 s drive earnings Airbus backlogs solid Embraer and Bombardiers much shorter Challenges Introduction of new and repowered aircraft Excess aircraft orders and cancellations from abroad Cash outlays to expand production Improved profitability for older aircraft due to low fuel prices

14 Pecentage of GDP Insufficient Private Fixed Investment 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% Source: RSM US, BEA

15 US Economic Outlook Risks to the Outlook: Global growth decelerates to 2.9 percent with downside risk Emerging markets and MENA states face challenging year European sovereign debt and financial tensions simmer Brexit triggered increase in E.U. banks credit default swaps European banking system needs to be recapitalized to the tune of billion Deutsche Bank and Italian banks at risk Italian referendum in late 2016 a potential game changer Pullback in Chinese growth and fixed business investment Shifting Chinese growth dynamics to damp recovery in commodity prices US Policy Risk Following Election U.S. federal government and the commercial community CRE and auto lending a risk.

16 Index E.U. Banking & Credit Default Swaps S&P/ISDA CDS Select OTR Weighted Average Index Spread DB 5-Year Credit Default Swaps Source: RSM US, Bloomberg

17 Percentage (Annual) Percentage (Annual) China s Debt Problem China Total Debt as a Percentage of GDP (LHS) China Corporate Debt as a Percentage of GDP (RHS) Source: RSM US, Bloomberg

18 Index US & EU Policy Uncertainty Elevated European Economic Policy Uncertainty Composite Index (LHS) US Economic Policy Uncertainty Composite Index (RHS) Index Source: RSM US, Bloomberg

19 US Policy and Rate Outlook Rate Drivers Negative interest rates have caused more than $10 trillion in global fixed income securities to post negative yields. This is driving capital into the U.S., German and Japanese bond market driving down yields. Long term rates range between 1.4 percent and 1.7 percent. Risk of much lower rates due to negative rate policy in Europe and Japan Risk of test of 1 percent should the financial situation in Europe deteriorate Differentials in growth, inflation and employment between U.S. & the rest. Capital flows from EU, Asia and EM space to keep rates low at the long end of the curve even as Fed tightens Fed likely to hike by 25 bps in December 2016 and another 50bps in 2017

20 US Policy and Rate Outlook Rate Outlook Policy Direction at Fed: Gradual rate normalization should growth continue Low real neutral interest rate and slow growth What will the Fed do if the economy slows or falls into recession? Integration of monetary and fiscal policy Fed financed tax cuts Yield curve targeting Purchasing wider array of assets Return of QE and forward guidance Targeting nominal GDP and lifting inflation target. Fiscal Policy: Policies to support greater spending Infrastructure spending Expanding of social safety net Begin issuing 50 year debt 20

21 Z-Score Global Financial Conditions 3 Z-Score of Zero Indicates Neutral Bloomberg Financial Conditions Plus=0.56 Bloomberg EU Financial Conditions Index= Bloomberg Asia Financial Conditions Index Excluding Japan= Source: RSM US, Bloomberg

22 Yield (Percentage, Monthly Average) Global Interest Rate Benchmarks Germany 10Y Yield US 10 Year Yield Source: RSM US, Bloomberg

23 US Spending Outlook Non-Durables Structural shift in retail spending to accelerate towards online purchases and away from traditional big box and mall anchors Electronics and home improvement outlays to remain solid Service Sector Wage and job gains to support strong demand for services Experiential, accommodation and recreation behind recent spending surge Gasoline prices to cool further this year Risk to spending Rising rents, service and medical service inflation

24 3-Month Annualized Percentage Change Retail Sales Easing Mid-Year Retail Sales Ex-Autos Ex-Gasoline Ex-Autos & Building Materials Ex-Autos & Gasoline Ex-Food Service Ex-Building Materials & Auto Dealers Control Group January'16 February'16 March'16 April'16 May'16 June'16 July'16 August'16 Source: RSM US, Bloomberg

25 Percentage Vacancy Rate Implies Rising Shelter Costs 6 7 Rental Vacancy Rates (LHS, Inverted) US CPI Rent of Shelter (RHS) Year-Over-Year Percentage Change Source: RSM US, Bloomberg

26 US Employment Outlook Sustained employment gains and falling unemployment to support solid spending outlook. Slowing trend in monthly job growth likely to define 2016 as economy enters full employment 2016 Average is 160,000 per month Hiring of roughly 75,000 to 100,000 per month sufficient to bring down unemployment rate Unemployment falls to 4.5 percent by end of 2016 Jobless claims near historic 1973 lows. Pace of firings remarkably stable implying full employment has arrived. Wage pressures slowly building imply upside risk to spending outlook. Wages set to increase above 3 percent next year Workers that change jobs earn a 4.3% increase in wages according to the Atlanta Fed. Scarcity of technically skilled, semi-skilled and public facing employees to define labor market and driving up premiums at upper end of the employment ladder Minimum wage and Department of Labor overtime regulations debate to intensify

27 Job Openings Per Person Labor Market Tightening Number of Unemployed Persons Per Job Opening=1.44(LHS) Source: RSM US, BLS

28 Year-Over-Year Percentage Change Rising Wages: Controlling for Retirees 7 Overall Job Switcher Source: Atlanta Fed

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