Plenary Session Three. Thought Leadership on Risk and Change. Meg Lassarat. CFO Mustang. Session Moderator ECC Board Member

Transcription

1 Plenary Session Three Thought Leadership on Risk and Change Meg Lassarat CFO Mustang Session Moderator ECC Board Member

2 Thought Leadership on Risk and Change

3 Thought Leadership on Risk and Change Jerry R. Strawser Dean, Mays Business School Texas A&M University Dr. William H. Glick Dean and H. Joe Nelson III Professor of Management at the Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Business Rice University

4 Doing Business in the Reset Economy

5 Doing Business in the Reset Economy Jerry Strawser, Dean KPMG Chair in Accounting Mays Business School Texas A&M University

6 In the last 6 months, have things: 1. Gotten much better 4% 2. Gotten a little better 3. Stayed about the same 8% 22% 4. Gotten a little worse 22% 5. Gotten much worse 44%

7 In the next 6 months, will things: 1. Get much better 3% 2. Get a little better 3. Stay about the same 4. Get a little worse 4% 8% 5. Get much worse 34% 51%

8 When do you think things will get back to normal? 1. Within the next 6 months 0% 2. Sometime during % 3. Sometime after Never 20% 64%

9 So What Happened?

10 Consumer Confidence Index Feb 09 Aug 08 Feb 08 Aug 07 Feb 07 Aug 06 Feb 06 Aug 05 Feb 05 Aug 04 Feb 04 Aug 03 Feb 03 Aug 02 Feb 02 Aug 01 Feb 01 Aug 00 Source: Source: The Conference Board

11 Jan-09 People Who Plan to Buy a Home in the Next Six Months Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Jan-99 Jan Source: Source: The Conference Board % of Respondents

12 Small Business Outlook Now Is A Good Time To Expand % of Respondents Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Jan-99 Jan-98 0 Source: National Federation of Independent Business

13 Small Business Outlook Planning To Hire People In The Next Six Months Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Jan-99 Jan Source: National Federation of Independent Business Net % of Respondents

14 January-08 Industrial Production Index Industrial Production Index January-06 January-04 January-02 January-00 January-98 January-96 January-94 January-92 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Index 1997=100

15 Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing Percent Used Jan-08 Jan-06 Jan-04 Jan-02 Jan-00 Jan-98 Jan-96 Jan-94 Jan-92 Jan-90 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Source: Federal Reserve Board

16 Banks Reporting Stronger Loan Demand From Large Firms Net Percent 50 Q1-09 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey Source:

17 Banks Reporting Stronger Loan Demand From Small Firms Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey Net Percent

18 The Credit Crunch 22% 32% 46% No Effect Some Effect Large Effect For those affected: Reduced availability (58%) Increased cost (49%) Source: Business Outlook Survey, CFO, July/August 2009, p. 26.

19 Jan-09 US Civilian Unemployment Rate US Civilian Unemployment Rate (Percent) 2 0 Jan-07 Jan-05 Jan-03 Jan-01 Jan-99 Jan-97 Jan-95 Jan-93 Jan-91 Jan-89 Jan-87 Jan-85 Jan-83 Jan-81 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve

20 US Employment: Construction 8,000 Thousands of Workers 7,000 6,000 5,000 NAICS 23 Building, developing, construction of Houses, buildings, power lines, highways, streets and bridges 4,000 Jan-08 Jan-06 Jan-04 Jan-02 Jan-00 Jan-98 Jan-96 Jan-94 Jan-92 Jan-90 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

21 23,000 US Employment: Government Thousands of Workers 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 Sector 92: Executive, legislative, justice, public safety, human Resources, environmental quality, planning, national security. National, state and local government. This includes civilian employees only, military personnel are excluded. 18,000 Jan-08 Jan-06 Jan-04 Jan-02 Jan-00 Jan-98 Jan-96 Jan-94 Jan-92 Jan-90 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

22 Oil Prices Source:

23 In Summary Nobody has much confidence Activity is slow Banks can t (or won t) loan. Customers aren t able to borrow (or do so at reasonable terms) Unemployment is high

24 The Best Case Scenario Rise in stock price followed by favorable corporate earnings 4Q09 Consumer confidence rises with stocks Foreclosure pressure continues to be heavy More spending results in higher profits Layoffs end by the end of the 2009 Jobless recovery in 2010 Higher interest rates and inflation in

25 The Worst Case Scenario No effective fiscal package gets passed Treasury and Fed continue to stumble Bad banks and businesses propped up No price discovery for toxic mortgages Political risk for business stays high Business / investors sit on their hands Unemployment goes well over 10% Commodity deflation and price deflation

26 Which is it?

27

28 Take a page from Cisco s Playbook 1. Be realistic. 2. Assess your situation. 3. Get ready for the upturn. 4. Get closer to your customers. 5. Watch the stock market. 6. Always have more cash, not less. 7. Be aggressive. Source: Silicon Valley Survivor, Wall Street Journal, July 25-26, 2009, p. A11.

29 Three more Tough economies will pare the field of weak competitors 2. Tough economies provide cover for certain behaviors and decisions (customers, suppliers, and employees) 3. Everything is up for grabs. Use this as a business development opportunity.

30 How Others Have Coped GE: Communicating inside and outside Nalco: Motivating employees to cut costs Avon: Changing marketing to reflect the times Waste Management: Getting customers to share the pain Source: My Recovery Playbook, Fortune, August 31, 2009, pp

31 What is your Company Doing? Limiting travel Layoffs Deferring new hiring Reengineering processes Changing terms with suppliers Streamlining offerings Reducing R&D Excuse to restructure Source: How Bleak is the Landscape?, Harvard Business Review, July-August 2009, % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

32 What Opportunities is your Company Considering? Restructuring for efficiency Targeting new customers Encouraging entrepreneurial Negotiating better terms w/suppliers Improving current products/services Creating new products/services Source: How Bleak is the Landscape?, Harvard Business Review, July-August 2009, % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

33 What can Happen During a Recession?

34 When will we recover? 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Already Recovering Later 2009 First half 2010 Second half or later Source: Business Outlook Survey, CFO, July/August 2009, p. 24.