Asset Allocation Perspective from American Century Investments

Transcription

1 Asset Allocation Perspective from American Century Investments October 20, 2009 by Scott Wittman, CFA Asset Allocation Summary Our tactical weightings for the fourth quarter are unchanged from late August when we added tactical exposure of international bonds to the Strategic Allocation: Conservative and Strategic Allocation: Moderate portfolios. We are retaining a slight underweight in domestic equities, with the exception of large-cap growth stocks, which reflects our view that with an anticipated economic recovery, large-cap growth stocks are best positioned to lead any further market gains. Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

2 *This chart details the difference (Over/Under) between current target weightings and the long-term benchmark strategic allocations that distinguish each strategy. Periodic adjustments are occasionally needed to balance our overall risk-reward ratio. Target weight numbers reflect current adjustments to each fund as of September 30, The risk designations are relative only to the three Strategic Allocation funds and do not represent comparisons with any other investment. You should consider the funds investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before you invest. The funds prospectuses, which can be obtained by calling or by visiting americancentury.com/ipro, contain this and other information about the funds and should be read carefully before investing. We ve Come a Long Way in One Year September 2009 represents the one-year anniversary of the near-meltdown by our financial system. And one year after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the $85 billion bailout of AIG, and failure of Washington Mutual (among other events that month), we have clearly stepped back from the precipice of financial disaster. We see signs of recovery in some sectors of the economy, but there are also continued signs of problems and issues in other parts of the economy. The housing market is one area where we see improvement; housing prices have stabilized in many regional markets and the level of home sales is up. The current rate of unemployment is an area where we are not seeing improvement, although the number of newly unemployed is slowing. Unemployment rose to 9.7% of the civilian workforce in August, and many economists expect it will crest at over 10% by sometime next year. Many dismiss the unemployment news by noting this statistic is a lagging indicator for the economy. Employers typically wait to rehire former workers and hire new workers until signs of recovery such as sales growth are clearly evident. But unemployment is also a leading indicator in the sense that it precedes the trend in consumer loan defaults, whether these loans are home mortgages, auto loans, student loans or credit card debt. Many economists do not see our current rate of unemployment declining substantially until the latter half of next year. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

3 Leverage Is Still High Excessive debt by financial institutions and households was a major cause of the current recession. So, the possibility that continued rises in unemployment could feed further increases in loan defaults and bankruptcy with a still fragile financial sector is a real risk. In fact, private sector debt as a percent of private sector GDP has been on a long-term rise in the U.S. and has yet to decline appreciably since the current financial crisis and recession began. The quick way to deal with high levels of debt is to default or declare bankruptcy, which can only put further strain on the financial system. And the lengthy way to deal with high levels of debt is to pay it off, which not only takes time but affects the ability of households to spend. In effect, there is no quick and painless solution to this problem. Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

4 What Kind of Recovery Is Coming? I m not a believer this will be a jobless economic recovery. But given the unresolved economic issues such as growing federal budget deficits, consumer indebtedness and unemployment, I believe the rate of decline in unemployment for this recovery will be slower than what we ve become accustomed to based on past recessions and recoveries over the past 30 years. One reason for this goes back to the U.S. consumer. Paralleling the growth of private sector debt as a percent of private sector GDP has been the growth of consumer spending as a percent of total GDP. In the early 1950s consumer spending amounted to approximately 62% of GDP. By 2007, it had risen to 70% of total GDP. At the same time, the savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income declined from over 10% to nearly 0%. Neither of these long-term trends is sustainable. In fact, given the indebtedness of many consumers, these trends have to reverse before we can truly return to an economy of sustainable long-term growth. Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

5 Government Stimulus Is Helping With the current level of government intervention and stimulus, we can anticipate a recovery over the coming several quarters. From both a fiscal and monetary perspective, the government response has been unprecedented. Consensus forecasts for economic growth over the next several quarters in the U.S. show an expectation for 1% in the third quarter (versus -1% actual for the second quarter) followed by 1-2% growth in the fourth quarter and the first two quarters of The concern is what happens when this level of government stimulus begins to wind down, as it must. The prospect of a universal health care bill based on public versus private funding could result in even greater long-term deficits than what are currently forecast, especially if the projected cost savings from such a program does not materialize to fund the cost. We ve already witnessed an increase in projections of new long-term debt by the U.S. government from $7 trillion to $9 trillion since January. At some point, the government, just like American households, is going to have to go on a spending diet. But the risk of doing so too soon could be an anemic and brief recovery. Inflation Is a Longer-Term Concern In light of the very large fiscal and monetary initiatives under way, the question of whether these might ultimately prove to be inflationary in an economic recovery is also a concern for us. Despite the massive initiatives, we are still in some respect still in a deflationary environment when it comes to real assets like home prices and most commodities (excluding gold, which is a global hedge against inflation). As a result, I am not concerned by inflationary risks in the short-term, especially given Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

6 expectations that this economic recovery will be slow and unemployment will also be slow in declining. The other risk of inflation comes from a weakening U.S. dollar, which is partly due to our massive stimulus efforts and the long-term trade deficits the U.S. has run with the rest of the world. This is a kind of inflation that is imported as the price of our imports, including everything from oil to manufactured goods, increases in U.S. dollar terms as the value of the U.S. dollar declines. On the other hand, the upside of a weak U.S. dollar is that our exports become more competitive as priced in other currencies. If the rest of the world shifts to a mode of significant growth in the current economic recovery, this could be very good news for sectors of our economy that rely on exports and global economic growth. Summary The very good news is there is consensus among most economists that we ve exited this long and painful recession sometime in the third quarter. And with the magnitude of government stimulus both fiscal and monetary the economy should average about 2% growth over the next several quarters. There are, however, longer-term issues such as government deficits and consumer indebtedness that will take a longer time to bring down. And for that reason, I expect our new recovery will be less robust than what most of us have come to expect based on recessions and recoveries over the past several decades. A WORD ABOUT RISK The funds performance depends on the investment managers skill in determining the strategic asset class allocations, the mix of underlying American Century Investments funds, as well as the performance of those underlying funds. The underlying funds performance may be lower than the performance of the asset class they were selected to represent. Stocks and bonds can decline due to adverse issuer, market, regulatory, or economic developments. International markets may be less liquid and can be more volatile than U.S. markets. These risk factors, including those associated with currency exchange rates, also apply to investments in international markets, all of which make international markets more volatile and less liquid than investments in domestic markets. Some of the underlying funds can invest in either high-yield securities or small/emerging growth companies. Investments in these types of securities generally are subject to greater volatility than either highergrade securities or more established companies, respectively. Before making an investment in any fund, you should consider all the risks associated with it. Scott Wittman, CFA, Senior Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager, is the senior investment officer assigned to American Century Investments Strategic Asset Allocation Funds (Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive). The risk designations are relative only to the three Strategic Allocation Funds and do not represent comparisons with any other investment. The three diversified portfolios invest in varying levels of stocks, bonds, and cash and account for over $2.9 billion (as of September 30, 2009) in assets. The opinions expressed are those of the contributors from the portfolio investment team. The opinions Page 6, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

7 are no guarantee of the future performance of any American Century Investments portfolio. Material presented has been derived from industry sources considered to be reliable, but their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You should consider the funds investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before you invest. The funds prospectus, which can be obtained by calling or by visiting americancentury.com/ipro, contains this and other information about the fund and should be read carefully before investing. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY/NOT FOR PUBLIC USE American Century Investment Services, Inc., Distributor 2009 American Century Proprietary Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. American Century Investments P.O. Box Kansas City, Missouri CO-FLY Page 7, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.