The zombie businesses phenomenon: An update
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1 The zombie businesses phenomenon: An update Zombie: a) a dead human that s been reanimated to a state between life and death. ~ business b) a company only able to service interest on its debt but not the debt itself January 2014
2 Introduction As the economy begins to recover, so the number of zombie businesses those only able to pay the interest on their debts has begun to fall. Some of the factors although by no means all that helped create these businesses are beginning to disappear. Having reached a peak of 160,000 in November 2012, there are now just 103,000 businesses paying off the interest on their debts alone. The decline of zombie businesses without a significant impact on corporate insolvency numbers is welcome. Many businesses that previously fell into this category will have used low interest rates and the extended gap between recession and recovery to move to surer financial footing. However, that does not necessarily mean it is the end of the zombie story. While many zombie businesses will have returned to good financial health, there is a significant number of businesses that have moved from struggling but surviving to full-on struggling. And, while in August there were 34,000 businesses who felt they would be unable to meet their debt obligations if interest rates were to rise slightly, there are now 96,000 in this position. Policy makers will need to watch those businesses that have moved beyond zombie business status carefully. Early interest rate rises could seriously hinder these businesses attempts to survive. As the trade body for the UK s insolvency practitioners, R3 is well placed to observe the zombie business phenomenon. Our members are experts in spotting signs of ailing businesses, and working with businesses to help them on the road to recovery. Liz Bingham President of insolvency trade body R3 In our last report (June 2013), there were 137,000 businesses that were negotiating payment terms with their creditors; there are now 166,000. Key findings: There were 103,000 zombie businesses those only able to pay the interest on their debts in November 2013, down from a peak of 160,000 in November A record number of businesses 166,000 were negotiating payment terms with creditors in November Whereas zombie businesses are struggling but surviving, those negotiating payment terms with creditors are at a make or break point. The number of businesses concerned that they would be unable to repay their debts if interest rates were to rise has almost trebled from 34,000 in August 2013 to 96,000 in November Some businesses have used the unique economic circumstances since end of the recession to sort out their finances and avoid insolvency. 2
3 What are the UK s zombie businesses? The arrival of a recession brings with it headlines worrying about job losses and business closures. While incidences of both do indeed rise during a recession, business failures actually reach their peak sometime after the end of a recession, during the early stages of recovery. This is called the insolvency lag. In the mid-1970s, corporate liquidations in England & Wales peaked in the year after recession ended, and in the early 90s recession, the liquidation rate (the share of the corporate population that has been liquidated) peaked at 2.65% in the first quarter of 1993, a year and a half after the recession ended towards the end of There are several reasons why this happens: Despite the tough trading conditions in a recession, many companies are able to ride out the recession by relying on cash reserves or cutting back on investment. By the time recovery comes around however, cash reserves are exhausted or thanks to the lack of investment the business isn t ready to cope with rising demand or able to keep up with competitors. Rising demand, as typically experienced during economic recovery, will place added strain on a business as it tries to meet new orders. Production lines, business plans and organisational structures, logistics, equipment, and cash flow all need to be ready to cope with a change in the level of business activity. During a recession, creditors are less likely to put pressure on their debtors: creditors understand the difficulties their debtors are going through, and, besides, creditors know their forbearance could help keep the debtor going keeping a customer during a recession is much easier than finding a new one. Come the recovery though, creditors can become much more bullish and will start to call in debts that are owed to them. The recession, however, was different to previous recessions. Corporate insolvencies did not peak after the recession but during it; and the peak insolvency rate was much smaller than before too, reaching only 0.95% in the final quarter of the recession before falling away again (the raw numbers of corporate insolvencies in were also slightly lower than in the early 90s, despite the growth in the UK business population in the intervening two decades). England & Wales Company Liquidations, seasonally adjusted (years with recessions in red) 1 In the 1980s, corporate liquidations peaked in 1985, having climbed steadily from the end of the recession in
4 The much smaller than expected peak in corporate insolvencies, and lack of a post recession insolvency lag has been attributed to so-called zombie businesses. R3 has defined these businesses as those that are only able to pay the interests on their debts, but not the principal itself; for some businesses, only special circumstances, such as record-low interest rates, are keeping them afloat. Businesses that could fall into the zombie business category can exist at any stage of the economic cycle, while the category itself can contain several different types of business, including start-ups. However, it is likely that the exceptional circumstances that surrounded the recession helped swell the ranks of zombie businesses. Liz Bingham comments: Since the recession, forecasting corporate insolvency numbers has become much harder than usual. In terms of corporate insolvencies, this recession and recovery have been surprising. Corporate insolvencies have always jumped up after recessions, but a stuttering recovery, government support schemes, creditor forbearance, and low interest rates have kept thousands of otherwise unviable businesses going this time around. The typical postrecession corporate insolvency spike never arrived and the past few years have been unexpectedly quiet for the profession. The typical post-recession corporate insolvency spike never arrived and the past few years have been unexpectedly quiet for the profession. 4
5 Why was the last recession different? The number of zombie businesses grew to 160,000 9% of the UK business population 2 in November 2012, up from 146,000 in June that year. There were a number of factors that help explain the boom in the number of businesses in this situation: Bank of England interest rates hit a record low of 0.5% in March 2009 and have stayed there ever since (and are likely to stay there for the next year too). Low interest rates helped struggling businesses meet their debt obligations even if they had no chance of paying off all their debts in the foreseeable future. Creditors, particularly banks, have been unusually patient with struggling businesses since the recession. Political pressure on the banking sector over lending and small business support (following the bank bailouts in 2008) may have contributed to this. Similarly, government support schemes, like Time To Pay, helped ease the burden on businesses struggling with tax payments. While struggling businesses often find economic recovery difficult, the UK has had to wait a long time for the recovery from the recession to arrive. Economic output is still below where it was before the recession, making this the UK s most prolonged economic recovery on record. Periods of sustained growth have been few and far between since 2009, taking some of the pressure off businesses. Higher interest rates, more active creditors, or a quicker recovery all could have meant the failure of zombie businesses. Do we still have zombie businesses? UK businesses that say they are only able to pay the interest on their debts The recent upturn in the UK s economic fortunes has been matched by a steady decline in the number of businesses that are only able to pay the interests on their debts. From a peak of 160,000 businesses in this position in November 2012, zombie business numbers fell to 135,000 in February 2013, 108,000 in May 2013, and 102,000 in August 2013, before climbing very slightly to 103,000 in November 2013 (6% of the UK business population). 2 Of businesses with an annual turnover of at least 50k 5
6 What happened to the zombie businesses? Although zombie business numbers have fallen steadily from their peak, there has not been a corresponding rise in the number of company liquidations. Since the second quarter of 2012, the liquidation rate has continued to fall, from 0.75% to 0.63% by the third quarter of While some of the companies in the zombie business category in June 2012 will have failed since, failure has not been the only future for the rest of the businesses in that category. It is very likely that some zombie businesses will have taken the opportunity presented by low interest rates, creditor forbearance, and the slow recovery to take a good look at their business model, change how they do things, and return to financial health. However, not all zombie businesses will be in either of these two positions just yet. As well as tracking the number of zombie businesses, R3 has also tracked the number of businesses with signs of serious cash flow problems. UK businesses that are Having to negotiate payment terms with creditors Unable to repay debts if small increases in interest rates Struggling to pay debts when they fall due Jun-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov ,000 75,000 74, ,000 93, , ,000 91,000 47,000 69,000 34,000 96, , , , ,000 98,000 56,000 Just paying interest on debts 146, , , , , ,000 6
7 While zombie business numbers have fallen, there has been a steep climb in the number of businesses now finding themselves needing to speak to creditors about their payment terms in a sense, this is a step beyond being zombie businesses who at least could be seen as ticking along rather than being in imminent danger of insolvency. The number of businesses negotiating with their creditors has leapt to 166,000, 10% of the UK business population. This is the highest number of businesses recorded by R3 in any one category since this research began. Unless these businesses can come to an arrangement with their creditors, insolvency is a real risk. It wasn t so long ago that interest rates weren t expected to rise until 2017 or Now 2015, or even the end of this year, could be when the cost of borrowing goes up. On top of this, there has recently been a big jump in the number of businesses that say they would be unable to pay their debts if interest rates were to rise. Having fallen to 34,000, the number of businesses in this category has trebled since August to 96,000. Liz Bingham comments: Encouragingly, many struggling businesses will have used the unexpected grace period between recession and recovery to put their house in order, allowing them to spring back to life. However, the number of businesses that are negotiating with their creditors is a potential cause for concern. It s a positive that businesses are taking action and addressing their problems by talking to their creditors. But, unfortunately, successfully negotiating new payment terms that work for both the creditor and debtor isn t always possible. It is also particularly worrying that so many businesses are concerned about the impact of interest rate rises on their ability to meet their debt obligations. It may well be that the continued fall of the unemployment rate towards 7% which would trigger a knockout clause in the Bank of England s Forward Guidance policy on interest rates is beginning to focus the minds of some businesses. It wasn t so long ago that interest rates weren t expected to rise until 2017 or Now 2015, or even the end of this year, could be when the cost of borrowing goes up. 7
8 What will happen next? Not all of the companies negotiating with their creditors will end up in an insolvency procedure: some companies creditors may well agree to new payment terms. On the other hand, many of the businesses in this category will be unable to come to an arrangement with their creditors, and an insolvency procedure would be one of a number of possible consequences. This does not necessarily mean that a belated spike in corporate failures is on its way: businesses engaged with their creditors do have options, while many of the businesses that would have made up this spike have already taken advantage of the protracted nature of the economic recovery to move onto more sound financial footing. Still, there are a very significant number of businesses who are in a difficult financial position. One of the problems with the presence of zombie businesses is that it has been hard to distinguish between struggling but viable businesses and those businesses whose failure is likely. Given the changing economic circumstances, that distinction is becoming easier to make. Liz Bingham says: There have been very few positive stories to come out of the financial crisis and the record-breaking recession that followed it, but perhaps some good news can be found in the zombie business phenomenon. The unique combination of factors that created the zombie business phenomenon could also be said to have a produced a group of comeback kid businesses. These are the businesses that would ordinarily have become insolvent in a recovery, but who have taken advantage of the circumstances to avoid liquidation and go from strength to strength. There are, however, still plenty of businesses that have been unable to address their problems. Administrations or CVAs [Company Voluntary Arrangements] might be an opportunity for these businesses to do this, but for the rest, liquidation could be the only option. With so many businesses still in a difficult financial situation, it is important that policy makers tread carefully. While a spike in corporate insolvencies is unlikely, it would not be entirely surprising if, once interest rates begin to rise and the economic recovery shifts through the gears, corporate insolvencies ended up higher than might normally be expected several years after a recession. As unemployment continues to fall, the Bank of England s 7% unemployment Forward Guidance knockout figure is getting closer and closer. Many expect interest rates to rise next year. However, a higher cost of borrowing would be a real test for some businesses and could lead to corporate failures. This, in turn, would have a negative effect on unemployment numbers and could also spell trouble for other businesses over a quarter of corporate insolvencies are caused by another company s insolvency. 8
9 Methodology Research undertaken by BDRC Continental, an award-winning insight agency. Questions were put to 500 UK businesses via BDRC Continental s monthly Business Opinion Omnibus. Telephone-based interviews with a nationally representative sample of senior financial decision makers across the UK, weighted by size, region and sector. For more information, please contact Nick Cosgrove, R3 Communications Manager, on nick.cosgrove@r3.org.uk or About R3: R3 is the trade body for Insolvency Professionals, and is made up of 97% of the UK s Insolvency Practitioners. R3 promotes best practice for professionals working with financially troubled individuals and businesses; all R3 members are regulated by one of nine recognised professional bodies. R3 stands for Rescue, Recovery, and Renewal and is also known as the Association of Business Recovery Professionals. Website
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