EMU unemployment data and the "preliminary flash" EMU Q1 GDP data.
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1 A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl Morning Briefing April 29th 2016 Friday sees a busy end to an already busy week, with a full data schedule on both sides of the Atlantic. The French calendar kicks off at 0530GMT, with the publication of the French Q1 GDP data. At 0600GMT, the German March retail sales numbers will cross the wires. At 0645GMT, there is further French data due for publication, with the March consumer spending, French April flash inflation data and the French March producer prices all due. The Swiss KOF economic barometer will be released at 0700GMT, the same time the Spanish preliminary GDP data is released. The UK data due at 0830GMT includes the Bank of England's M4 money supply data and the Bank's lending to individual s data. The main EU data will be released at 0900GMT, when the EMU flash April inflation data, EMU unemployment data and the "preliminary flash" EMU Q1 GDP data. At the same time, ECB Gov. Council member Jens Weidmann speaks on the occasion of changes in the Bundesbank administration in Bavaria. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan speech on the prospects for the US economy to a monetary policy forum, in London. Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at 1230GMT, with the publication of the March US personal income and consumption data, along with the Employment Cost Index. Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in March, as payrolls rose by 215,000, hourly earnings rose 0.3% and the average workweek held steady at 34.4 hours. Nominal PCE is expected to rise by 0.1%, as retail sales were down 0.3%, but up 0.2% excluding a 2.1% drop in motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales (also ex. gas), rose 0.1%. Global Economic Trading Calendar The core PCE price index is forecast to rise 0.1% for another month. The ECI is expected to rise 0.6% in the first quarter, a slight rise from the fourth quarter. At 1345GMT, the MNI Chicago PMI data is set for publication. The MNI Chicago report's business barometer is expected to fall to a reading of52.5 in April after rising to 53.6 in March. Other regional data already released to this point have been mixed, with the Empire State reading posting a solid gain to 9.56 and the Philadelphia Fed reading falling sharply to The final US University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released at 1400GMT. The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up to a reading of 90.0 in April from the 89.7 previous estimate and would be down from the 91.0 reading in March.
2 Markets FOREX: The yen continued to rise this morning in the Asia-Pacific following on from, and vaulting, yesterday's gains in the wake of the BOJ's policy decision. The move came even though Japanese markets were closed as they marked the start of the so-called "Golden Week" holiday period. The consequent weakness in the US dollar gave a lift to the aussie, while the euro also benefited. Dollar-yen last trades off the low at Y while aussie-yen was at Y82.00 vs the Y81.73 low. Aussie-dollar was last at $0.7648, at the top of the $ to $ range today. Euro-dollar was last at $1.1387, also near the high point of the day's $ to $ range so far. US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading slightly lower as Asian markets play catch up to Wall Street's losses on Thursday. Also weighing in has been further weakness in SGX Nikkei futures which are down some ~2.50% as the Yen continues to surge in illiquid Japan holiday trade. On the earnings front, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are they key earnings releases for Friday. Currently the Jun'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading down 3.25 points at 2,069.50, the Jun'16 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading down 5.25 points at 4,376.75, while the Jun'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading down 23 points at 17,738. US STOCKS CLOSE: US stocks went from being mixed earlier to all 3 indexes closing in negative territory. Nevertheless, given the sharp losses (-3.61%) seen in the Nikkei 225 after the BOJ disappointed overnight, US stocks held up pretty well. The DJIA closed down 1.17% at 17,830.76, the S&P 500 down 0.92% at 2, and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.19% at 4, Amazon (AMZN) announced upbeat Q1 earnings after the bell and is up 12.79% in afterhours action. US TSY FUTURES: With Japanese investors beginning their Golden Week holiday's today resulting in cash treasuries being closed on Friday in Asia, treasury futures have naturally had a very quiet start to the session, with 10yr futures up half-atick from the close. That said the absence of Japanese investors still sees event risk for treasuries namely from China. After the BOJ's shock move yesterday which resulted in a 3%+ rally in the Yen, investors will be keeping a very keen eye on how strong the CNY fix will be. Also Chinese commodity markets will be a focus after Chinese regulators emboldened their crack down on speculators via raising margin requirements and transaction fees. Technically 10yr futures see resistance at the 50% of the / decline, while initial support is seen at though liquidity will be diminished. The break of the Apr'4th low in Usd/Jpy of has seen 10yr treasury futures firm, as Usd/Jpy plunges to a low- down 76 pips on the session. Currently 10yr futures are up some 2.5-ticks, with some 28.4k trading. JAPAN: Closed for Showa Day Holiday PRECIOUS METALS: After technical breakouts yesterday, the precious metals have had a solid morning as they have been spurred higher by US dollar weakness. The absence of Japanese participants due to a public holiday which has resulted in slightly thinner conditions, also potentially contributing to the moves. All four metals have punched through their overnight highs, although only gold and silver have moved on substantial volume from Chinese and CME investors. Huge stop loss & momentum buying went through in gold on the CME when the overnight high at $ (GCM6) was tripped. 4.4K traded between $ $ , with a follow up wave of 4.5K lots going through immediately between $ to $ the high at the time. Some consolidation near the highs was then seen before another push, this time into the $1280's for gold - $1283 on the June COMEX futures the high before profit takers halted the ascent - gold yet to take out its March 11th $ spot high however. OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Jun'16 delivery last up $0.01 at $46.04 per barrel, after a $45.63 to $46.06 range in Asia today, on very large volume as the market continues to short cover. The focus has really shifted away from record levels of inventory to reduced production in the past few weeks or so, and the contract looks set for it's strongest month in over a year. A weak USD is also dragging in both fresh longs and supply-side short stops in size on the run, with the break of $45 crucial. The DXY (Dollar Index) is testing major support at the 93 area,.
3 Technical Analysis BUND: (M16) O/S Daily Studies Correcting *RES 4: High Apr 18 *RES 3: High Apr 20 *RES 2: Low Mar 29 now resistance *RES 1: DMA *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: Low Apr 28 *SUP 2: Low Mar 27 *SUP 3: Low Mar 15 *SUP 4: Monthly Low Mar 10 *COMMENTARY: Concerns about O/S studies looking to correct appear to have been well placed given the continued recovery from recent lows Thursday. Bears do take comfort from the pause at the 55-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and ease bearish pressure whereas above is needed to shift focus back to Bears now need a close below to gain breathing room and below to retain focus on EUROSTOXX: Correcting O/B Studies Weighing *RES 4: Bollinger band top *RES 3: DMA *RES 2: High Jan 5 *RES 1: High Apr 21 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: Low Apr 28 *SUP 2: DMA *SUP 3: High Apr 4 now support *SUP 4: DMA *COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls as the index hesitates ahead of the 200- DMA. The index managed a break of Thursday but has so far lacked follow through. Layers of support where DMAs are located remain key with bears needing a close below the 55-DMA to hint at a shift lower in focus with below the channel base ( ) confirming. Bulls need close above the 200-DMA to reconfirm a bullish bias.
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