Dairy Market Outlook. European Dairy Market Overview. EU and US SMP Prices ($/Mt) SMP Spread EU-US ($/Mt)

Transcription

1 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Dairy Market Outlook European Dairy Market Overview 15 Dec $6, $5, $5, $4, $4, $3, $3, $2, $2, $1, $1, $1, $ $ $ $ $0.00 -$ $ $ $ $1, The European dairy quotations continued there almost relentless decline again this week, as all products were down on the previous week. The Butter quotation was down 2.44% ( 72) on average to 2,865. Germany saw the biggest downward move, where the quotation dropped a very significant 5.83% ( 175) to 2825, likely as a consequence of reduced cream demand as the pre Christmas demand comes close to an end. Many were expecting the German quotation to drop as it had been over the physical market for the past few weeks, but few had forecast the price to correct to this extent. The Dutch quotation was also lower, down 1.37% ( 40) to The French quotation was unchanged on the week at The average of the DE/NL/FR butter quotations are now down 29.25% so far this year. The SMP Quotations were on average down 1.08% ( 20) EU and US SMP Prices ($/Mt) US NFDM $/Mt EU SMP ($/Mt) US NFDM Price History EU SMP Price History SMP Spread EU-US ($/Mt) Source: USDA /Eurex / CME / INTLFCStone Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Historic Max Historic Min 3 Year Average 5 Year Average Forward Curve 2015 Source: USDA /Eurex / CME / INTLFCStone this past week, averaging Germany and France both saw their quotations lower by 30, to settle at

2 /tonne 1875 and 1830 respectively. The Netherlands was unchanged on the week at The fall this week now has the SMP prices down 44.4% since the start of The extreme declines in SMP and the depressed forward curve is showing a record discount of EU SMP versus US NFDM for H1 2015, resulting in the US looking very uncompetitive unless that spread corrects significantly. Last weeks biggest mover in terms of quotations was Whey was the most stable quotation this week although also lower. The average of the German, Dutch and French quotations were down 0.88% 7 on the week. The German and Dutch quotation were both 10 lower on the week to 730 and 750 respectively while the French was unchanged at 780. Trading volumes picked up a little this past week on Eurex. SMP was the biggest volume traded as a total of 41 contracts traded. The majority of the trade was in an April-May strip where 20 lots of each traded last Monday 8th Dec all at Whey saw a total of EU Butter - 5 Year Percentile Ranges and Forward Curve 60, 0% 841, 4% 7387, 36% 139, 1% 29 contracts trade on the week with the trade more Butter in Private Storage 2976, 14% 1260, 6% 8014, 39% BE DE IE LT NL PL UK SMP in Private Storage 80, 0% 2764, 18% 443, 3% Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun , 19% 275, 2% , 58% CA DE IE ES LT UK Source: Milk Market Observatory Source: Milk Market Observatory 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% Five Year High Five Year Low 05 Dec 12 Dec DE/FR/NL Butter Quotations and Eurex Butter forward curve broadly distributed across the forward curve. The majority of Monday, 15 December 2014 Dairy Market Outlook Page 2

3 Deliveries (millions litres per week) Deliveries (millions litres/day) the trade was done on Thursday 11 th where 5 lots traded in the Jan contract at 740, 1 lot of Feb traded at 740, 6 Mar traded between , 6 April traded between and finally 5 May traded at 730. Butter traded a total of 22 contracts on the week with 16 of those trading in the May contract, starting at 2825 on Tuesday and trading down to 2800 on Wednesday. In the week ending 07 th Dec 158 tonnes of butter was offered into private storage, all 158 tonnes were offered from the Netherlands equal to the amount they put in the previous week. The total volume of Butter in PSA now stands at 20,678 tonnes. SMP was a bit more active that week as 765 tonnes of SMP were offered into the Private Storage scheme. The Czech Republic offered their first quantity into the scheme with 275 tonnes, Germany offered 192 tonnes while Spain offered the largest quantity into the Scheme in the week with 298 tonnes. The total volume in storage currently stands at 15, Apr 01 May 01 Jun 01 Jul 01 Aug 01 Sep 01 Oct 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan 01 Feb 01 Mar Latest milk collection numbers from the UK show the seasonal trend of higher volumes continue. DairyCo data up to the first week of December shows collections up 0.55% on the week to 37.6m litres/day and up 3.42% year on year as we continue to hold over last years strong performance for the second half of the season. For the season to date overall collections are up 7.43% (685m litres) as we edge towards the last quarter of the quota year. UK Daily Milk Deliveries (7 day rolling Average) 60% 56% 52% 48% 44% 40% 36% 32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% 5 Year min 14/15 vs 13/14 %Δ 2012/ / /15 5 Year Average 14/15 vs 13/14 YTD%Δ Source: AHDB/DairyCo French Weekly Milk Collection 300 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 5 Year Range 14/15 vs 13/14 %Δ 2011/ / / /15 14/15 vs 13/14 YTD %Δ Source: FranceAgriMer French milk collection are seeing the same seasonal move higher and as like the UK, volumes continue to hold have last season s strong second half production. For the week ending 30th November, FranceAgriMer data shows collections up 1.5% on the week and up 1.3% year on year. For the season to date volumes are up 4.9%, with the major gains made in the April to Mid-October period. 45% 42% 39% 36% 33% 30% 27% 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0%

4 /tonne Open Interest USD/tonne Open Interest Dairy Market Weekly Recap Eurex Futures NZX Futures Butter Futures Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR) WMP Futures % - Dec-14 US$/tonne % 3415 Dec-14 /tonne % 133 Jan-15 US$/tonne % 2575 Jan-15 /tonne % 147 Feb-15 US$/tonne % 1190 Feb-15 /tonne % 82 Mar-15 US$/tonne % 1363 Mar-15 /tonne % 63 Apr-15 US$/tonne % 880 Apr-15 /tonne % 154 May-15 US$/tonne % 550 May-15 /tonne % 25 Jun-15 US$/tonne % 380 Jul-15 /tonne % 61 Jul-15 US$/tonne % 250 SMP Futures Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR) % - Dec-14 /tonne % 35 Jan-15 /tonne % 88 Feb-15 /tonne % 57 Mar-15 /tonne % 37 Apr-15 /tonne % 82 May-15 /tonne % 20 Jul-15 /tonne % NZX WMP Forward Curve 12 Dec 05 Dec Eurex Butter Forward Curve Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jul SMP Futures Dec-14 US$/tonne % 280 Jan-15 US$/tonne % 420 Feb-15 US$/tonne % 201 Mar-15 US$/tonne % 154 Apr-15 US$/tonne % 0 May-15 US$/tonne % 0 Jun-15 US$/tonne % 0 Jul-15 US$/tonne % 0 Whey Futures Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR) AMF Futures % - Dec-14 US$/tonne % 0 Dec-14 /tonne % 41 Jan-15 US$/tonne % 30 Jan-15 /tonne % 55 Feb-15 US$/tonne % 0 Feb-15 /tonne % 52 Mar-15 US$/tonne % 212 Mar-15 /tonne % 45 Apr-15 US$/tonne % 0 Apr-15 /tonne % 17 May-15 US$/tonne % 0 May-15 /tonne % 5 Jun-15 US$/tonne % 0 Jul-15 /tonne % 0 Jul-15 US$/tonne % 0 Chicago Mercantile Exchange 12 Dec 05 Dec Change Ref Month Total OI Units Mar 12 Feb 13 Dec 14 #NAME? 12 Dec ( /tonne) Class III Milk % Dec-14 42,448 US$/cwt Class IV Milk % Dec-14 3,147 US$/cwt Cheese (Cash Settled) % Dec-14 30,932 US$/lb 3, Butter (Cash Settled) % Dec-14 5,657 US /lb 3, Nonfat Dry Milk % Dec-14 4,837 US /lb 2, Dry Whey % Dec-14 6,716 US /lb 1, Monday, 15 December 2014 Dairy Market Outlook Page 4

5 About Eurex Exchange Eurex Exchange is one of the leading global derivatives exchanges. Our offering comprises a broad range of futures and options on traditional and alternative asset classes as well as a growing range of commodities including precious metals, energy and agricultural derivatives. Together, Eurex Exchange and the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have daily trading volumes of about 10.5 million contracts. Eurex Exchange is a member of Eurex Group which also comprises the International Securities Exchange (ISE), European Energy Exchange (EEX), Eurex Clearing, Eurex Bonds and Eurex Repo. About FCStone INTL FCStone's customers include the producers, processors and end users of virtually every major traded commodity; commercial counter-parties; governmental, non-governmental and charitable organizations; institutional investors; brokers; professional traders; commercial banks; and major investment banks. Among our services are the proprietary Integrated Risk Management Program (IRMP), as well as exchange and OTC execution and clearing services, designed to limit risk and enhance margins and bottom-line results; physical trading in base metals, precious metals and grains; a global foreign exchange and currency payment service; asset management; equities market-making; securities execution and trading; and investment banking advisory services. INTL FCStone Dairy Contact Details European Office: Charlie Hyland: charlie.hyland@intlfcstone.com Liam Fenton: liam.fenton@intlfcstone.com John Lancaster: john.lancaster@intlfcstone.com INTL FCStone Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: ] In Ireland, the activities of INTL FCStone Ltd are subject to the supervision of conduct of business rules by the Central Bank of Ireland. Past performance may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Mention of specific commodities should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell these commodities. Commodity Trading is risky and INTL FCStone Ltd and FCStone Group LLC assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples. References to and discussions of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Ltd. Neither this information, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation to buy or sell futures or options or futures contracts, or OTC products. Reproduction without authorisation is forbidden. All rights reserved. Monday, 15 December 2014 Dairy Market Outlook Page 5

6 Deutsche Börse AG (DBAG), Clearstream Banking AG (Clearstream), Eurex Frankfurt AG, Eurex Clearing AG (Eurex Clearing) as well as Eurex Bonds GmbH (Eurex Bonds) and Eurex Repo GmbH (Eurex Repo) are corporate entities and are registered under German law. Eurex Zürich AG is a corporate entity and is registered under Swiss law. Clearstream Banking S.A. is a corporate entity and is registered under Luxembourg law. U.S. Exchange Holdings, Inc. and International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc. (ISE) are corporate entities and are registered under U.S. American law. Eurex Frankfurt AG (Eurex) is the administrating and operating institution of Eurex Deutschland. Eurex Deutschland and Eurex Zürich AG are in the following referred to as the Eurex Exchanges. All intellectual property, proprietary and other rights and interests in this publication and the subject matter hereof (other than certain trademarks and service marks listed below) are owned by DBAG and its affiliates and subsidiaries including, without limitation, all patent, registered design, copyright, trademark and service mark rights. While reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this publication to provide details that are accurate and not misleading at the time of publication DBAG, Clearstream, Eurex, Eurex Clearing, Eurex Bonds, Eurex Repo as well as the Eurex Exchanges and their respective servants and agents (a) do not make any representations or warranties regarding the information contained herein, whether express or implied, including without limitation any implied warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or any warranty with respect to the accuracy, correctness, quality, completeness or timeliness of such information, and (b) shall not be responsible or liable for any third party s use of any information contained herein under any circumstances, including, without limitation, in connection with actual trading or otherwise or for any errors or omissions contained in this publication. This publication is published for information purposes only and shall not constitute investment advice respectively does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. This publication is not intended for solicitation purposes but only for use as general information. All descriptions, examples and calculations contained in this publication are for illustrative purposes only. Eurex and Eurex Clearing offer services directly to members of the Eurex exchanges respectively to clearing members of Eurex Clearing. Those who desire to trade any products available on the Eurex market or who desire to offer and sell any such products to others or who desire to possess a clearing license of Eurex Clearing in order to participate in the clearing process provided by Eurex Clearing, should consider legal and regulatory requirements of those jurisdictions relevant to them, as well as the risks associated with such products, before doing so. Eurex derivatives (other than EURO STOXX 50 Index Futures contracts, EURO STOXX Select Dividend 30 Index Futures contracts, STOXX Europe 50 Index Futures contracts, STOXX Europe 600 Index Futures contracts, STOXX Europe Large/Mid/Small 200 Index Futures contracts, EURO STOXX Banks Futures contracts, STOXX Europe 600 Banks/Industrial Goods & Services/Insurance/Media/Personal & Household Goods/Travel & Leisure/Utilities Futures contracts, Dow Jones Global Titans 50 Index SM Futures contracts, DAX Futures contracts, MDAX Futures contracts, TecDAX Futures contracts, SMIM Futures contracts, SLI Swiss Leader Index Futures contracts, Eurex inflation/commodity/weather/property and interest rate derivatives) are currently not available for offer, sale or trading in the United States or by United States persons. Trademarks and Service Marks Buxl, DAX, DivDAX, eb.rexx, Eurex, Eurex Bonds, Eurex Repo, Eurex Strategy Wizard SM, Euro GC Pooling, FDAX, FWB, GC Pooling,, GCPI, MDAX, ODAX, SDAX, TecDAX, USD GC Pooling, VDAX, VDAX-NEW and Xetra are registered trademarks of DBAG. Phelix Base and Phelix Peak are registered trademarks of European Energy Exchange AG (EEX). The service marks MSCI Russia and MSCI Japan are the exclusive property of MSCI Barra. itraxx is a registered trademark of International Index Company Limited (IIC) and has been licensed for the use by Eurex. IIC does not approve, endorse or recommend Eurex or itraxx Europe 5-year Index Futures, itraxx Europe HiVol 5-year Index Futures and itraxx Europe Crossover 5-year Index Futures. Eurex is solely responsible for the creation of the Eurex itraxx Credit Futures contracts, their trading and market surveillance. ISDA neither sponsors nor endorses the product s use. ISDA is a registered trademark of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. IPD UK Annual All Property Index is a registered trademark of Investment Property Databank Ltd. IPD and has been licensed for the use by Eurex for derivatives. SLI, SMI and SMIM are registered trademarks of SIX Swiss Exchange AG. The STOXX indexes, the data included therein and the trademarks used in the index names are the intellectual property of STOXX Limited and/or its licensors Eurex derivatives based on the STOXX indexes are in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by STOXX and its licensors and neither STOXX nor its licensors shall have any liability with respect thereto.. Dow Jones, Dow Jones Global Titans 50 Index SM and Dow Jones Sector Titans Indexes SM are service marks of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index SM and any related sub-indexes are service marks of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and UBS AG. All derivatives based on these indexes are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones & Company, Inc. or UBS AG, and neither party makes any representation regarding the advisability of trading or of investing in such products. All references to London Gold and Silver Fixing prices are used with the permission of The London Gold Market Fixing Limited as well as The London Silver Market Fixing Limited, which for the avoidance of doubt has no involvement with and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for the underlying product to which the Fixing prices may be referenced. PCS and Property Claim Services are registered trademarks of ISO Services, Inc. Korea Exchange, KRX, KOSPI and KOSPI 200 are registered trademarks of Korea Exchange Inc. BSE and SENSEX are trademarks/service marks of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and all rights accruing from the same, statutory or otherwise, wholly vest with BSE. Any violation of the above would constitute an offence under the laws of India and international treaties governing the same. The names of other companies and third party products may be trademarks or service marks of their respective owners. Monday, 15 December 2014 Dairy Market Outlook Page 6