At 0630GMT, the Bak of France July Business survey will be published, followed by the EMU Sentix Economic Index at 0830GMT.
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1 A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl Morning Briefing July 10th 2017 Monday throws up busy day in Europe, with data and the Eurogroup meeting of euro area finance ministers. Greece will again be discussed at Eurogroup, although the ESM board of directors passed the disbursement of E8.5 billion last Friday. The data calendar gets underway early, with the release of the German trade data at 0600GMT. At 0630GMT, the Bak of France July Business survey will be published, followed by the EMU Sentix Economic Index at 0830GMT. The OECD July Leading Indicator will be published at 1000GMT. Across the Atlantic, the US calendar kicks off at 1400GMT, with the release of the latest employment trends index and the Fed LMCI data. At 1500GMT, the NY Fed survey of consumer expectations will be published. The latest US consumer credit data and the final Treasury Allotments will be released at 1900GMT. Consumer credit usage is expected to rise by $12.0 billion in May after a disappointing $8.2 billion rise in April. Retail sales fell by 0.3% in May, both including and excluding motor vehicle sales. Global Economic Trading Calendar
2 Markets SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: Nikkei 225 up points at ASX 200 up points at Shanghai Comp. down points at JGB 10-Yr future down 5 ticks at , JGB 10-Yr yield up 0.9bp at 0.096% Aussie 3-Yr future down 2 ticks at 97.96, Aussie 3-Yr yield up 1bp at 2.055% Aussie 10-Yr future down 2 ticks at 97.25, Aussie 10-Yr yield up 1.6bp at 2.746% - US 10-Yr future down 1 tick at , US 10-Yr yield up 0.18bp at % US TSY/RECAP: Treasuries end Fri lower as stronger 222K June jobs gain offset less than expected 0.2% Average Hourly Earnings, mildly higher 4.4% jobless rate. Some eyed talk of high asset valuation in Fed Chr Yellen congress mon pol report for next week. T-Notes open Asia at , 10-Year yield last 2.386% AUSSIE BONDS: AOFM Notice: Launch of syndicated tap of June 2039 Treasury Bond The AOFM announces an issue by syndication of the 3.25% 21 June 2039 Treasury Bond. The issue will be of a modest size. -Initial price guidance for the issue is a spread of 64 to 66 basis points over the implied bid yield for the primary ten-year Treasury Bond futures contract. - The issue is expected to be priced on Tuesday, 11 July 2017 and settle on Friday, 21 July 2017 BONDS: Very quiet session so far in JGB's and Aussie bonds, seeing thin, rangebound trade. Aussie bond futures moving within 1 tick ranges on SFE so far, holding losses from the SYCOM session, JGB's similarly lacklustre. - Aussie bond yield curve steepens, with yield up 1-1.8bp, 3/30-Year spread 0.7bp wider. JGB yield curve flattens as yields in the long end decline slightly. Two JGB auctions to be held this week, 5-Year tomorrow, 20-Year on Thursday. - The BoJ reaffirmed their commitment to YCC on Thursday, increasing the 5-10 Year purchases by Y50bln and offering fixed rate ops (but getting no bidders). US EURODLR FUTURES: Slightly higher across the strip, still within Friday's range after the large positive miss in June NFP, accounts fine tune (read fade) rate hike chances in the next two meeting, focus on December FOMC. JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks went in to the lunch break higher, the Nikkei 225 up points, buoyed by a weaker yen and gains in US stocks on Friday after strong NFP data. The index opened higher and has moved within a tight range. - USD/JPY has built on its gains from last week, moving back above the 114 handle, the pair last trades at up 20 pips on the session. - 9/11 sectors on the Nikkei are in the green, led higher by tech stocks after strong gains in the sector in the US on Firday. Energy and telecommunications are in the red, with oil prices up slightly on the session, but WTI still languishing below $45/bbl. OIL: Oil is slightly higher to start the week, WTI last up $0.39 at $44.62, however these gains are small compared with the drop from around $47.30 on Wednesday last week. - Helping to support oil is the report that Kuwait oil minister Almarzooq has invited Libya and Nigeria to the July 23 OPEC meeting with a view to including them in the output cut deal from which they were formerly exempt. GOLD: Gold is down marginally in Asia-Pac trade to start the week, the yellow metal last trades down $0.89 at $1,211.57, still within its range from Friday following the post-nfp decline. - Gold is currently enduring its longest losing streak in 2017, down for 5 consecutive weeks. CFTC data showed that gold net longs were cut by the most since 2015 in the latest data period, reducing net longs by half FOREX: It was a listless start to the new trading week in the Asia-Pacific region, leaving the dollar in consolidation mode and held to tight ranges. Dollar-yen rose from Y to Y114.20, Tokyo-fix related demand was largely behind the move. Dollar-yen was last at Y Aussie sauntered between $ and $0.7615, last at $ China CPI failed to spark any enthusiasm, June data came in at 1.5% y/y, against MNI's median 1.6% y/y. Meanwhile, Euro-dollar was last at $ and Cable at $1.2896, after trading in respective ranges of $ to $ and $ to $
3 Technical Analysis BUND: (U17) Closes Below Weekly Bull Channel Base *RES 4: Hourly support June 28 now resistance *RES 3: 4: Hourly High July resistance 5 June 29 *RES 2: 3: WMA Low July 3 now resistance *RES 1: 2: High Hourly July resistance 3 July 6 *RES 1: High July 7 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: Low July 3 *SUP 2: 1: Alternating Low July 7 daily support/resistance *SUP 3: 2: Long Monthly Term Low Weekly Mar 14 Bull channel base *SUP 4: 3: Monthly Low May Low 11 (Cont) Mar 14 *SUP 4: Low Mar 22 (Cont) *COMMENTARY: Bears have capitalised on the rejection above the *COMMENTARY: 55-DMA last week The with break bearish of closes last that week see saw immediate bearish pressure focus shift on to the and overall support focus region. tests The of weekly long term bull weekly bull channel channel base base. comes The in Bollinger around base (161.72) this week remains with last the week s key concern close below for bears. adding Bulls weight look to for the a bearish close above case with below to ease immediate initially targeting bearish pressure O/S and daily above studies remain to shift a concern focus back for to bears who now look where for a 21 close (164.21) above & (163.69) to gain are breathing situated. room and above to shift focus back to where the 21-WMA (162.33) is located. EUROSTOXX50: Bulls Now Need Close Above 100-DMA *RES 4: DMA *RES 3: DMA *RES 2: Alternating daily support/resistance *RES 1: High July 6 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: Low July 7 *SUP 2: Low July 6 *SUP 3: Monthly Low Apr 19 *SUP 4: Low Mar 13 *COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on Thursday's dip to fresh 4 mth lows courtesy of the Bollinger base ( ) which is a concern for bears with daily studies looking to correct from O/S levels. Bulls now look for a close above the 100-DMA to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to 21 & 55-DMAs. While the 100-DMA caps bears focus on with below to add weight to their case for a move back to the 200-DMA ( ).
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