Back on the Continent, at 0900GMT, the European Economic Sentiment Indicator will be published, alongside the business climate Index.
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1 A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl Morning Briefing August 30th 2017 There is a full data calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Wednesday, with German inflation numbers and US Q2 GDP the standout features. The European calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the publication of the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer. At the same time, the Spanish flash August inflation data will be released. German state inflation data is also expected from 0700GMT, kicked of by the release of the Saxony numbers Bundesbank Board member Andreas Dombret speaks at the live stream press conference between Bundesbank and BaFin, in Frankfurt, starting at 0800GMT. The main UK data will be released at 0830GMT, when the Bank of England's M4 numbers and the Lending to Individuals report is published. Housing activity in the UK has softened somewhat in recent months as household's grapple with rising inflation, subdued wage growth and an uncertain business landscape. In June, mortgage approvals subsequently fell to a nine-month low of 64,700. Back on the Continent, at 0900GMT, the European Economic Sentiment Indicator will be published, alongside the business climate Index. The US calendar gets underway at 1100GMT, with the release of the MBA weekly applications index. The Federal German flash August inflation data will be released at 1200GMT. At 1215GMT, the ADP August employment report will cross the wire, with the 2 nd estimate of the Q2 GDP data expected at 1230GMT. Second quarter GDP is expected to be revised up to a 2.7% rate from the 2.6% gain in the advance estimate. Analysts expect PCE and inventories growth to be revised up, offset by a downward adjustment to the government component. The chain price index is expected to be unrevised at a 1.0% rate of growth. At the same time, the Canadian payroll data will be published. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will speak on The Role of Boards at Large Financial Firms at the Large-Bank Directors Conference in Chicago, with audience Q&A, starting at 1315GMT. The latest US help-wanted online index data is expected at 1400GMT, with the DOE weekly crude oil stocks numbers expected at 1430GMT. The latest US farm prices data will be released at 1900GMT. Global Economic Trading Calendar
2 Markets SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: - Nikkei 225 up points at ASX 200 down 8.91 points at Shanghai Comp. up points at JGB 10-Yr future down 13 ticks at , JGB 10-Yr yield up 0.6bp at 0.015% - Aussie 3-Yr future down 6 ticks at 97.96, Aussie 3-Yr yield up 5.1bp at 2.051% - Aussie 10-Yr future down 5.5 ticks at 97.32, Aussie 10-Yr yield up 5.5bp at 2.68% - US 10-Yr future down 4 ticks at , US 10-Yr yield up 1.57bp at % US TSY/RECAP: Treasuries ended higher, but well off day's price high, amid black-box hedge fund selling in Tsys/buying US$/yen then such accounts reversed overnight UK trades and earlier NY trades in late NY, said traders. - T-Notes open Asia at , 10-Year yield last 2.129% STOCKS: Asia-Pac stocks are mostly higher on Wednesday, recovering from the sharp decline yesterday after yet another North Korea missile test. The geopolitical concerns seem to have subsided and risk on sentiment has returned to markets. - On the Nikkei 225 the index opened higher and has moved in a narrow range, ignoring better than expected retail sales premarket. Yen weakened overnight as USD regained some strength which supported the jump higher on the indices at the open. The index went into the lunch break at 19, up 106 points. - Mainland China and the Hang Seng are both in positive territory with the Hang Seng led higher by a jump in the technology sector. The Australian ASX200 is the exception, down around 5 points, dragged lower by Telstra who fell almost 8% after the company revealed that their plans to securitise broadband payments had been scuppered and rights expired for their final dividend. - US stock futures have also seen a rise amid the risk on sentiment, e-mini Dow futures last up around 10 points. OIL: Oil is marginally lower in Asia- Pac trade, WTI last down $0.13 at $ Oil took a dip yesterday as markets braced for Tropical Storm Harvey to return ashore in the Texas/Louisiana border area later today. Yesterday reports hit the wires that the large Motiva Port Arthur refinery is to shut due to fear of flooding. Analysts estimate that around 22% of US refining capacity is offline due to the storm, impacting crude demand heavily GOLD: Gold has moved higher in Asia-Pac trade on Wednesday, the yellow metal last at $1, up $3.83. Gold opened at session lows after dropping sharply on Tuesday as North Korean based geopolitical fears receded. Gold dropped around $20/oz from highs to hit session lows of $1,305 just ahead of the close yesterday. - Gold is still just off highs for the year and is likely to remain supported as North Korea seems intent on conducting more missile tests. FOREX: It was a fairly quiet affair during the Asia-Pacific session, the dollar was mostly unchanged against its peers, but with one small exception. Aussie-dollar was a mild out-performer, climbing from $ to $ underpinned by betterthan-expected local data, July building approvals came in -1.7% m/m against -5.0% m/m expected, also, Q2 construction work was solid, coming in at +9.3% q/q against MNI's median of +1.0% q/q. Aussie was last at $ Dollaryen trekked higher from Y to Y109.92, the move was supported by demand into today's Tokyo-fix. Dollar-yen was last at Y and almost unchanged from this morning's open. Kiwi dropped from $ to $ following RBNZ's Wheeler, 'a lower kiwi is needed' comment. Kiwi recovered quite quickly and was last at $ Meanwhile, Euro-dollar currently trades at $ and Cable at $1.2927, after trading in respective ranges of $ to $ and $ to $
3 Technical Analysis BUND: (U17) Bollinger Top Limiting Follow Through *RES 4: High Feb 24 *RES 3: Monthly High Apr 18 *RES 2: High Aug 29 *RES 1: Bollinger band top *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: High Aug 28 now support *SUP 2: Daily Bull channel base A *SUP 3: Low Aug 28 *SUP 4: Low Aug 25 *COMMENTARY: Bullish focus remains on with a close above confirming focus on 2017 highs. The lack of topside follow through courtesy of the Bollinger top is a concern for bulls who now look for a close above to add support to their case. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a close below the bull channel base to ease bullish pressure and below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (164.04) and shift focus back to 55 & 100-DMAs EUROSTOXX50: Supported Ahead Of Channel Base *RES 4: High Aug 23 *RES 3: DMA *RES 2: High Aug 28 *RES 1: High Aug 29 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: Hourly support Aug 29 *SUP 2: Low Aug 29 *SUP 3: High Feb 22 now support *SUP 4: Daily Bear channel base *COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA has capped recent attempts to return pressure to the 55-DMA and bear channel top ( ) resulting in a close below the 200-DMA ( ). Bears now focus on with a close below to target 2017 lows ( ). Initial resistance is now noted at with bulls needing a close above to shift focus back to The Bollinger base ( ) is a concern and currently limits follow through.
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