Max Weekly: 317. Eurex SMP traded a total of 48 contracts. week with 40 of. those trading on. Monday 30th June, where the. Butter Price (US$/tonne)
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1 Butter Price (US$/tonne) Price Spread Butter Price (US$/tonne) Volume per Week (lots) Cumulative Volume (lots) Dairy Market Outlook European Dairy Market Overview 1 Jul. 14 The week ending July 4th was a record trading week in Eurex with a total of 317 lots (1585 tonnes) traded across the Butter, SMP and Whey contracts, up 33% from the previous record of 238 contacts which traded in the week of 3rd to 9th February Max Weekly: 317 Eurex Dairy Futures Weekly and Cumulative Volume Trading activity was spread pretty well across the week with 87 contracts trading on Monday, 84 on Tuesday, 2 on Wednesday, 2 on Thursday and finally finishing the week strongly with 124 contracts trading on Friday 4th June Jan 12 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Oct 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Feb 14 Apr 14 Jun 14 Cumulative Butter SMP Whey The majority of the trading was in Butter which actually beat the record weekly volume all on its own with 258 contracts trading. Pre last Tuesday s GDT the trading week started relatively strong with prices trading in the range of in the July-Nov Contracts. With the heavy falls in the GDT (See Oceania Section), the second half of the trading week in Europe had Butter prices taking a step lower before finding support at the 35 level, and buyers and sellers both seeing value and trading between 35 and 355 from Sep 214 all the way forward to the July 215 contract. The big volume contracts in 215 were all traded on Friday where 2 contracts of Jan 15 traded at 3525, 2 contracts of Apr 15 traded at 353 and 2 contracts of July 15 traded at Eurex SMP traded a total of 48 contracts on the week with 4 of 6 those trading on 5 Monday 3th June, where the 4 July and Aug 3 contracts both 2 traded at for 1 tonnes per month. Eurex Whey registered 15 contracts trading during the week, all on Tuesday 1st July where 25 tonnes per month traded on the Sep-Oct-Nov strip all at 925. Butter Market Comparison Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 EU-US Spread EU-NZ Spread US-NZ Spread European Butter US CS Butter GDT Butter
2 Deliveries (millions litres/day) Deliveries (millions litres per week) One of the main reasons for the step down in the prices traded on Eurex Butter last week was the fact that the large drops in Oceania Butter seen on the GDT resulted in the price spread between Oceania and European Butter widening to such an extent that there is now a possibility that we will see some quota butter imports arriving in Europe in Q4, thereby increasing availability of Butter in the EU for that period. The European Quotations have been relatively stable last week and also this week. The average of the German, Dutch and French Butter quotations increased 25 last week July 2nd to The French Quotation increased 5 to 36; the German Quotation increased 25 to 355 and the Dutch quotation remained unchanged at 352. This week (July 9th) all the European Butter quotations remained unchanged and the average is consequently unchanged at The average of the German, Dutch and French SMP quotations were also relatively stable. Last week the only mover was France which rose 1 to 288, while the German and Dutch remained unchanged at 294 and 286 respectively, leaving the average of the quotations up 3 to This week July 9th the SMP quotations were a little more variable, the German Quotation fell 1 to 293, the Dutch quotation fell 2 to 284 and the French quotation increased 2 to 29. The average of the three quotations was down 3 giving back the previous weeks gain to average at Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar The Whey quotations have been trending slightly lower over the past two weeks. Last week July 2nd say the Dutch quotation down 1 to 93 while the German and Dutch remained unchanged to bring the average down 4 to 923. This week all the movement was in Germany which dropped 1 to 9, with the Netherlands and France both unchanged at 93, the average of the quotations is now at 92. After falling off sharply from the seasonal peak in mid-may, the seasonal pace of UK milk production decline moderated significantly during the last three weeks of June, as good conditions during June helped grass growth and milk output. Data from DairyCo shows that up to the 28th June, volumes were up 4.6% year on year as an extra 1.8m litres per day was collected. The rate of decline slowed sharply after the first week of the month, as collection volumes from the 8th to the 28th falling by 1.7% compared to a fall of 3.5% during the same period last year. For the French Weekly Milk Collection 5 Year Range 14/15 vs 13/14 %Δ 214/15 211/12 212/13 213/14 14/15 vs 13/14 YTD %Δ Source: FranceAgriMer UK Daily Milk Deliveries (7 day rolling Average) 26 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar season to date this puts overall UK volumes up 9.2%, with extra 316m litres of milk collected. French collections volumes also continue to move lower seasonally, for the week ending 29th June collections were down 1.1% on the week to 471m litres. After a sharp fall off from peak production, where year on year gains dropped back to 3.3%, the year on year gains have stabilised around the 5% level for the last five weeks, with a slight upwards trend. In a similar trend to the UK, the rate of decline has reduced from early to mid-june, as we continue to make five year highs for milk volumes. For the season to date overall volumes are up 5.6% year on year, with an extra 368m litres compared to the same point in the 212/13 season and an extra 415m litres compared to the five year average. 45% 42% 39% 36% 33% 3% 27% 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% % 6% 56% 52% 48% 44% 4% 36% 32% 28% 24% 2% 16% 12% 8% 4% % -4% -8% -12% 5 Year Range 14/15 vs 13/14 %Δ 212/13 213/14 214/15 5 Year Average 14/15 vs 13/14 YTD%Δ Source: AHDB/DairyCo Thursday, 1 July 214 Dairy Market Outlook Page 2
3 % Change GDT Index Oceania Market Overview Any thoughts that the.9% gain in the 17th June auction might be an indication of some stabilisation were rudely shattered by the 4.9% move down in the GDT index in last week s auction. The 2 hour and 9 minute event saw 41,513 tonnes of product sold at an average winning price of US$3595, the lowest average winning price since January 213.With the exception of BMP, all other products saw prices fall, with the fats hardest hit as AMF was down 7.4% and butter 13.6%. After moving up by 2.4% in the previous auction, WMP took back all those gains and then some, moving down by 5.4% with an average winning price of US$3459, the lowest in over 18 months. All contracts saw prices down, with the biggest hit taken by high volume contracts 2 and 3. Changes in Price Indices Contract 1 Contract 2 Contract 3 Contract 4 Contract 5 Contract 6 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 All Contracts US % Δ US % Δ US % Δ US % Δ US % Δ US % Δ % Δ Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF) - - 3, % 3, % 3, % 3,63-8.2% 3, % -7.4% Butter 4, % 3, % 3,1-15.% 3,12-15.% 3,2-11.% % Butter Milk Powder (BMP) - - 3,923 4.% 4,68-4, % Cheddar (Ched) - - 4,49 1.1% 4,19-4.3% 4, % % Lactose (LAC) % Milk Protein Concentrate (MPC7) % Rennet Casein (RenCas) - - 1, % 1, % Skim Milk Powder (SMP) 3, % 3, % 3, % 3, % 3, % 3, % -.9% Whole Milk Powder (WMP) 3,77-3.3% 3,45-7.8% 3, % 3, % 3, % 3, % -5.4% All Products (Trade-Weighted) % % % - -6.% - -4.% % -4.9% 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% GDT Auction: 1 Jul 214 GDT Price Index All prices US/tonne, Source: Global Dairy Trade -15% Jul 8 May 9 Mar 1 Nov 1 Apr 11 Sep 11 Feb 12 Jul 12 Dec 12 May 13 Oct 13 Mar 14 1,5 1,25 1, % Change GDT Price Index Source: Global Dairy Trade Amul had no WMP in this auction so all WMP on offer was from Fonterra. As the first auction of the month contract 1 had volume offered and saw the smallest fall, down US$13 from the start of June at US$377. Contract 2 registered the biggest falls, though there was some varying direction here, with regular taking a very large 12.4% (US$455) fall to US$3225, while instant was up US$9 to US$3865 and UHT was down US$195 to US$356. This puts instant at a US$64 premium to regular and UHT at a US$335 premium respectively. Contract 3 saw a more common direction, with falls of between US$ (6-6.5%) putting product in the US$3385 to US$349 range. Contract 4 saw relatively similar falls, down by US$19 ( %), moving back to a premium over contract 3. Contracts 5 and 6 made the smallest falls, down 3.3% and.1% respectively. This moved the GDT forward curve from being in an inverse in the previous auction to a carry. For regular the spread between contract 2 and contract 5 has moved from -US$95 to +US$24. SMP made one of the most moderate moves on the auction, with the SMP index falling by.9% and an average winning price of US$381. In contract 1 Dairy America product made moderate falls, down by US$9 to US$39. Contract 2 saw mixed moves, with Arla product up US$1-25 to US$398, while Euroserum was down US$8-1 to US$378. Dairy America also saw moderate falls down US$25 to US$393 and Fonterra product made small mixed movement, between down US$1 and up US$5 to US$376 - US$381. Contract 3 saw Amul SMP give up some of its premium over other origins, falling by US$21 to US$43, but still remaining by far the highest priced SMP on the auction. Dairy America product in contract 3 saw Thursday, 1 July 214 Dairy Market Outlook Page 3
4 US$ tonne US$/tonne similar moves to contract 2, moving down by US$1 4 to US$3925. Fonterra product also saw moderate declines, down US$1 65 into the US$ range, while contracts 4-6 were down US$3-1 serving to give a relatively flat forward curve around the US$ level. AMF registered the second biggest fall in prices, behind fellow fat butter. The AMF index dropped by 7.4% and the average winning price fell to US$366. There were large falls in all contracts, but the deferred contracts took the biggest hits. Contract 2 saw the smallest decline, down by US$25 to US$ Contract 3 saw an even larger US$28 fall, leaving contracts 2 and 3 flat. The US$45 (1.3%) fall for contract 4 removes the carry there and puts it at a discount to contract 3. Contracts 5 & 6 saw similar trends, with falls of 8.2% and 1.6% removing the bulk of the carry that was in the GDT forward curve. Butter s 13.6% fall was the largest move on the auction, with the average winning price falling US$519 to US$3181. It was Fonterra product that generated that entire downward price move, as Dairy America product in contract 1 was up by US$155 to US$4875. Moving on to Fonterra butter and it was all red to be seen, contracts 2-4 all saw similar falls, down between US$ to US$31 to US$3165, while contract 5 saw a slightly less severe fall, down by 11% (395) to US$ BMP was the only product that saw prices increase, as the index rose by 4% with an average winning price of US$4135. This was on the back of a 17% rise in the previous auction and puts BMP at a substantial premium to other powders. Arla BMP saw some mixed price direction with EU sourced product in contract 2 down US$5 to US$3345 while UK product was up US$245 to US$376. Fonterra product also saw a large price increase, up by US$18 to US$4715 and puts BMP at a US$955 premium over SMP. Last week saw trade volume for NZX GDT Auction 1 July WMP Prices May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 1-Apr 15-Apr 6-May 2-May 3-Jun Jun-14 1-Jul-14 Source: Global Dairy Trade dairy futures continue to be strong with 148 lots trading during the week, but down from the 254 lots traded the previous week. WMP again took the majority of the volume, with 1175 lots, followed by SMP with 3 lots and rounded off by AMF with 5 lots. Fonterra NZ Regular WMP Starting off last week, Monday saw 3 lots of WMP trade all over Q4, this was made up of 1 lots in Oct14, Nov14 and US$363, US$373 and US$388 respectively. Tuesday got in a further 545 lots of WMP before the GDT auction, as Jul14 with 525 lots taking the majori- GDT Auction 1 July WMP premium over SMP Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan Apr-14 6-May-14 2-May-14 3-Jun Jun-14 1-Jul-14 Fonterra NZ product: Regular WMP, Medium Heat SMP Source: Global Dairy Trade Thursday, 1 July 214 Dairy Market Outlook Page 4
5 (m litres/day) Auction Value (US$) Millions Average Winning Price (US$/tonne) Premium (US$/tonne) Premium (US$/tonne) ty of the volume. This was made up of 75 US$3525, 42 US$37 and 3 US$355. The remaining 2 lots were traded in US$35. Following the large move in GDT on Tuesday, the market saw no trades on Wednesday, but activity resumed on Thursday with 8 lots of WMP trading between Jul14 and Aug14. This was made up of 3 lots in Jul14 and 5 lots in Aug14 all trading at US$315, down US$35 from Tuesday. AMF made it s only trade of the week on Thursday, with 5 lots in US$375. Friday was the busiest day of the week, with a further 25 lots of WMP and 3 lots of SMP trading. The WMP was spread over Q4, with 5 lots in US$335 and 1 lots each in Nov14 and US$345 and US$355 respectively. This put Oct14 and Nov14 down US$28 from Monday and Dec14 down US$33. All of the SMP trades took place on Friday, with 3 lots spread over September to US$379 in Sep14, US$385 in Nov14 and US$38 in Dec14. This week has started off slower so far, with 35 lots trading on Monday and 2 on Tuesday. Monday saw WMP and SMP trade, with 25 lots of WMP in US$315 and 1 lots of SMP in US$385. All the volume on Tuesday was for SMP, with 2 lots trading over Aug14 (1 US$375) and Sep14 (1 US$365). As reported last week, the first options trade for NZX WMP took place last Monday. That trade saw 1 lots of Sep14 calls trade at a strike price of US$38 and a premium of US$1. Later in the week there were two more options trades, with Wednesday seeing a further 1 lots of Sep14 calls trade at a strike price of US$345 and a premium of US$14. Friday added a further 5 lots, again of calls but this time over Aug14, at a strike price of US$33 and a premium of US$61. Fonterra s June milk collection was up 1.1% year on year with 9m kgms collected during the month. Almost all of the increase came from the North Island, which was up by 12.9% to 7m kgms, while the South Island was up just 1.6% to 2m kgms. June is the lowest milk production month of the year for New Zealand with a large amount of the milk produced used for domestic consumption rather GDT Contract 2 - Fonterra Instant and UHT WMP premium over Regular Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Instant Premium UHT Premium GDT Contract 2 - Fonterra SMP premium over BMP than for export products. Source: GDT -1 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Volume ( SMP Premium Fonterra Regular SMP and UHT BMP Source: GDT Mar-1 Jul-1 Nov-1 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar GDT Overall Auction Value and Average Winning Price Auction Value Average winning price Fonterra NZ Milk Collection 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 212/13 213/14 214/15 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Source: Fonterra
6 /tonne Open Interest USD/tonne Open Interest Dairy Market Weekly Recap Eurex Futures NZX Futures Butter Futures 9 Jul 2 Jul Change OI WMP Futures 9 Jul 2 Jul Change OI Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR) % - Jul-14 US$/tonne % 511 Jul-14 /tonne % 154 Aug-14 US$/tonne % 3198 Aug-14 /tonne % 15 Sep-14 US$/tonne % 286 Sep-14 /tonne % 31 Oct-14 US$/tonne % 65 Oct-14 /tonne % 16 Nov-14 US$/tonne % 38 Nov-14 /tonne % 55 Dec-14 US$/tonne % 3 Dec-14 /tonne % 3 Jan-15 US$/tonne % Jan-15 /tonne % 6 Feb-15 US$/tonne % SMP Futures 9 Jul 2 Jul Change OI Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR) % - Jul-14 /tonne % 44 Aug-14 /tonne % 22 Sep-14 /tonne % 17 Oct-14 /tonne % 69 Nov-14 /tonne % 6 Dec-14 /tonne % 2 Jan-15 /tonne % NZX WMP Forward Curve 9 Jul 2 Jul Eurex Butter Forward Curve 9 Jul 2 Jul Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 SMP Futures 9 Jul 2 Jul Change OI Jul-14 US$/tonne % 48 Aug-14 US$/tonne % 3 Sep-14 US$/tonne % 4 Oct-14 US$/tonne % 11 Nov-14 US$/tonne % 1 Dec-14 US$/tonne % Jan-15 US$/tonne % Feb-15 US$/tonne % Whey Futures Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR) 9 Jul 2 Jul Change OI AMF Futures 9 Jul 2 Jul Change OI % - Jul-14 US$/tonne % 262 Jul-14 /tonne % 11 Aug-14 US$/tonne % Aug-14 /tonne % 14 Sep-14 US$/tonne % 5 Sep-14 /tonne % 15 Oct-14 US$/tonne % Oct-14 /tonne % 13 Nov-14 US$/tonne % Nov-14 /tonne % 11 Dec-14 US$/tonne % Dec-14 /tonne % 5 Jan-15 US$/tonne % Jan-15 /tonne % Feb-15 US$/tonne % Chicago Mercantile Exchange 9 Jul 2 Jul Change Ref Month Total OI Units Mar 12 Feb 13 Jul 14 #NAME? 9 Jul ( /tonne) Class III Milk % Jul-14 24,134 US$/cwt Class IV Milk % Jul-14 7,18 US$/cwt Cheese (Cash Settled) % Jul-14 11,193 US$/lb 3, Butter (Cash Settled) % Jul-14 5,153 US /lb 3, Nonfat Dry Milk % Jul-14 2,95 US /lb 2, Dry Whey % Jul-14 2,43 US /lb 1,72 +6
7 About Eurex Exchange Eurex Exchange is one of the leading global derivatives exchanges. Our offering comprises a broad range of futures and options on traditional and alternative asset classes as well as a growing range of commodities including precious metals, energy and agricultural derivatives. Together, Eurex Exchange and the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have daily trading volumes of about 1.5 million contracts. Eurex Exchange is a member of Eurex Group which also comprises the International Securities Exchange (ISE), European Energy Exchange (EEX), Eurex Clearing, Eurex Bonds and Eurex Repo. About FCStone INTL FCStone's customers include the producers, processors and end users of virtually every major traded commodity; commercial counter-parties; governmental, non-governmental and charitable organizations; institutional investors; brokers; professional traders; commercial banks; and major investment banks. Among our services are the proprietary Integrated Risk Management Program (IRMP), as well as exchange and OTC execution and clearing services, designed to limit risk and enhance margins and bottomline results; physical trading in base metals, precious metals and grains; a global foreign exchange and currency payment service; asset management; equities market-making; securities execution and trading; and investment banking advisory services. INTL FCStone Dairy Contact Details European Office: Charlie Hyland: charlie.hyland@intlfcstone.com Liam Fenton: liam.fenton@intlfcstone.com John Lancaster: john.lancaster@intlfcstone.com INTL FCStone Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: ] In Ireland, the activities of INTL FCStone Ltd are subject to the supervision of conduct of business rules by the Central Bank of Ireland. Thursday, 1 July 214 Dairy Market Outlook Page 7
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Dairy Market Outlook. European Dairy Market Overview. EU and US SMP Prices ($/Mt) SMP Spread EU-US ($/Mt)
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