Deliveries (millions litres per week)
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- Phebe Morrison
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1 Deliveries (millions litres per week) Dairy Market Outlook Since May 215, EEX offers trading in Agricultural Index Futures formerly listed on Eurex Exchange. European Dairy Market Overview Monday, 15 June 215 Last weeks quotations saw renewed weakness across the board as butter, SMP and whey all moved lower. The butter quotations were down by 33 (1.1%) to 2987, the first time since late January it has broken the 3 level. The French quotation provided all of the downward movement, falling by 1 to 3, closing the range of the three quotations to 4, while the Dutch and German remained unchanged at 296 and 3 respectively French Weekly Milk Collection 325 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 5 Year Range 14/15 vs 13/14 %Δ 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 14/15 vs 13/14 YTD %Δ Source: FranceAgriMer French Average Temperature and Forecast 26% 24% 22% 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% SMP also registered further weakness, dropping by a further 13 to 177, with the French and Dutch quotations both down by 2 to 178 and 173 respectively, while the German was unchanged at 18. Whey was the big loser on the week, dropping by 4 (5.6%) overall. All three quotations moved lower, with the biggest move by the French shedding 6 to 65 (8.5%), with the German falling by 3 to 61 and the Dutch also falling by 3 to 64. After significantly closing the year on year gap over the past 9 weeks, the latest milk collection data from FranceAgriMer shows that for the week ending 31st May, French milk collections were up.2% year on year. This is the first time since last December that French milk collections have been higher year on year as we move down from the late April peak at a more gradual pace than last year, with volumes falling.4% on the previous week. This stronger production continues to see the deficit for the season to date close, reducing from -2% to -1.7% and up 3.8% vs the five year average. Following the previous weeks mini heat wave last week saw average temperatures in France drop back towards the lower end of the normal range, giving relief from the high temperature conditions to the milking cows and to the pasture. Fore-
2 Feb-7 May-7 Aug-7 Nov-7 Feb-8 May-8 Aug-8 Nov-8 Feb-9 May-9 Aug-9 Nov-9 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Milk Price: EUR cent / 1 Kg /tonne 7-Sep 14-Sep 21-Sep 28-Sep 5-Oct 12-Oct 19-Oct 26-Oct 2-Nov 9-Nov 16-Nov 23-Nov 3-Nov 7-Dec 14-Dec 21-Dec 28-Dec 4-Jan 11-Jan 18-Jan 25-Jan 1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb 1-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar 5-Apr 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 1-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun Weekly Volume in PSA Comulative Volume in PSA casts for the coming week put average temperatures at close to slightly above normal with approx. 2 mm of rainfall, most of it early in the week. This should help soil moisture levels which had moved below normal by the end of May. Although down from the previous weeks highs, the week ending 7th Jun saw strong volumes of Butter again being placed in private storage with 3924 tonnes being placed into PSA. Ireland was the biggest user in the week with 1241 tonnes, followed by France with 976 tonnes and the Netherlands with 782 tonnes. As the large volumes which were placed into storage in February are now eligible to be released we would expect an increase in the volumes being released from storage. We have our current forecast for Net tonnage of Butter in private storage at about 64k tonnes. SMP volumes placed into Private storage were also relatively strong on the week ending 7th June with 141 tonnes being offered into 45. the scheme. Spain was responsible for the majority of the 4. inflows with 1116 tonnes, % of the total Volumes of Butter placed in Private Storage BE DE IE FR LT NL PL UK EU28 Cumulative 214 Closing Stocks EU SMP - 5 Year Percentile Ranges and Forward Curve Jun 1 Dec 1 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Five Year High Five Year Low 5 Jun 12 Jun DE/FR/NL Butter Quotations and Eurex Butter forward curve 3335 LTO Milk Price Basket vs Butter/SMP Model Source: Milk Market Observatory 9.% 7.% 5.% 3.% 1.%.% 3. The forward curve for EEX butter was mixed when compared to the previous week. 25. The June contract traded as 2. low as 3 on 8 tonnes this past Friday, and settled 315 down 2.43% from the previous weeks settlement. There was also trading activity on the Aug through to Dec contacts where a total of 275 tonnes traded at prices between 3125 and 315. The SMP forward curve settled 2-5% lower on the week and this also dragged down our forecasted LTO EU Average Milk Price forward curve down.3 c/1kg on the week to an average of 29.8c/1Kg for the Source: LTO, Eurex, INTL FCStone EU Average Milk Model Forecast (as of May 25th 215) Milk Model Forecast Milk Model next 12 months and delaying the overall expected price recovery in commodity and milk prices. Monday, 15 June 215 Dairy Market Outlook Page 2
3 /tonne Open Interest Butter Futures Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR) Dairy Market Weekly Recap WMP Futures % - Jun-15 US$/tonne % 275 Jun-15 /tonne % Jul-15 US$/tonne % 152 Jul-15 /tonne % Aug-15 US$/tonne % 2825 Aug-15 /tonne % Sep-15 US$/tonne % 181 Sep-15 /tonne % Oct-15 US$/tonne % 23 Oct-15 /tonne % Nov-15 US$/tonne % 138 Nov-15 /tonne % Dec-15 US$/tonne % 124 Dec-15 /tonne 315 #N/A - Jan-16 US$/tonne % 15 SMP Futures Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR) EEX Futures NZX Futures Butter Futures % - Jun-15 US$/tonne % 6 Jun-15 /tonne % Jul-15 US$/tonne % 3 Jul-15 /tonne % Aug-15 US$/tonne % 3 Aug-15 /tonne % Sep-15 US$/tonne % 3 Sep-15 /tonne % Oct-15 US$/tonne 3 3.% 1 Oct-15 /tonne % Nov-15 US$/tonne % Nov-15 /tonne % Dec-15 US$/tonne % Dec-15 /tonne #N/A #N/A - Jan-16 US$/tonne % Eurex Butter Forward Curve 12 Jun 5 Jun Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec SMP Futures Jun-15 US$/tonne 2 2.% 1 Jul-15 US$/tonne % 37 Aug-15 US$/tonne % 58 Sep-15 US$/tonne % 6 Oct-15 US$/tonne % 29 Nov-15 US$/tonne % 6 Dec-15 US$/tonne % 6 Jan-16 US$/tonne % Whey Futures AMF Futures Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR) #N/A 673.% - Jun-15 US$/tonne % 17 Jun-15 /tonne % Jul-15 US$/tonne % 17 Jul-15 /tonne % Aug-15 US$/tonne % 35 Aug-15 /tonne % Sep-15 US$/tonne % 19 Sep-15 /tonne % Oct-15 US$/tonne % 6 Oct-15 /tonne #N/A #N/A.% Nov-15 US$/tonne % 5 Nov-15 /tonne #N/A #N/A.% Dec-15 US$/tonne % 5 Dec-15 /tonne #N/A #N/A.% Jan-16 US$/tonne % Chicago Mercantile Exchange 12 Jun 5 Jun Change Ref Month Total OI Units Mar ####### 12 Feb 13 Jun15 12 Jun ( /tonne) Class III Milk % Jun-15 3,767 US$/cwt Class IV Milk % Jun-15 2,8 US$/cwt Cheese (Cash Settled) % Jun-15 24,782 US$/lb 3, Butter (Cash Settled) % Jun-15 6,16 US /lb 3, Nonfat Dry Milk % Jun-15 5,75 US /lb 1,84-2 Dry Whey % Jun-15 4,51 US /lb Monday, 15 June 215 Dairy Market Outlook Page 3
4 About European Energy Exchange The European Energy Exchange (EEX) is the leading energy exchange in Europe. It develops, operates and connects secure, liquid and transparent markets for energy and commodities products. At EEX, contracts on Power, Coal and Emission Allowances as well as Freight and Agricultural Products are traded or registered for clearing. Alongside EEX, EPEX SPOT, Powernext, Cleartrade Exchange (CLTX) and Gaspoint Nordic are also part of EEX Group. Clearing and settlement of trading transactions are provided by the clearing house European Commodity Clearing (ECC). About FCStone INTL FCStone's customers include the producers, processors and end users of virtually every major traded commodity; commercial counter-parties; governmental, non-governmental and charitable organizations; institutional investors; brokers; professional traders; commercial banks; and major investment banks. Among our services are the proprietary Integrated Risk Management Program (IRMP), as well as exchange and OTC execution and clearing services, designed to limit risk and enhance margins and bottom-line results; physical trading in base metals, precious metals and grains; a global foreign exchange and currency payment service; asset management; equities market-making; securities execution and trading; and investment banking advisory services. INTL FCStone Dairy Contact Details Dublin, Ireland: Charlie Hyland: charlie.hyland@intlfcstone.com Liam Fenton: liam.fenton@intlfcstone.com John Lancaster: john.lancaster@intlfcstone.com INTL FCStone Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: ] In Ireland, the activities of INTL FCStone Ltd are subject to the supervision of conduct of business rules by the Central Bank of Ireland. Past performance may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Mention of specific commodities should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell these commodities. Commodity Trading is risky and INTL FCStone Ltd and FCStone Group LLC assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples. References to and discussions of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Ltd. Neither this information, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation to buy or sell futures or options or futures contracts, or OTC products. Reproduction without authorisation is forbidden. All rights reserved. Monday, 15 June 215 Dairy Market Outlook Page 4
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Dairy Market Outlook. European Dairy Market Overview. EU and US SMP Prices ($/Mt) SMP Spread EU-US ($/Mt)
Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Dairy Market Outlook European Dairy Market
More informationFrance both remained unchanged at 800.
Traded price ( /tonne) Volume Traded Dairy Market Outlook European Dairy Market Overview 11 Sep. 14 The European Quotations continued to be weaker as physical markets in Europe continue to come under pressure.
More informationMax Weekly: 317. Eurex SMP traded a total of 48 contracts. week with 40 of. those trading on. Monday 30th June, where the. Butter Price (US$/tonne)
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