Morning Briefing October 4th 2016
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1 A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl Morning Briefing October 4th 2016 Early European data sees the release of the latest Spanish unemployment data at 0700GMT. At 0745GMT, ECB Governing Council member Luis Linde gives the opening speech at VII Financial Meeting Expansion-KPMG conference, in Madrid. UK data sees the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI data set for release at 0830GMT. At the same time, ECB Gov. Council member Carlos da Silva Costa will deliver the opening address at Workshop on Digital Banking and FinTech, in Lisbon. The main US data release comes at 0900GMT, when the September PPI data will be published. The results of the BOE's latest longterm liquidity ops will be released at0940gmt. US Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker will give a speech at West Virginia Economic Outlook Conference in Charleston, followed b audience and media Q&A, starting at 1200GMT. The latest US Redbook Retail Sales Index will be published at 1255GMT, with the September ISM-NY Manufacturing Index expected at 1345GMT. Bundesbank Board member Claudia Buch speaks at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, in Geneva, Switzerland, starting at 1500GMT. BOE MPC member Michael Saunders will have a speech published at 1500GMT. The speech will not actually be delivered until Wednesday. The Treasury STRIPS data will be released at 1900GMT. Global Economic Trading Calendar
2 Markets US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading slightly higher in quiet trade following mild gains on Asian markets. However, trade remains quiet over the Rosh Hashanah holiday. Currently the Dec'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading up 2.25 points at 2,155.50, the Dec'16 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading up 5.50 points at 4,872.00, while the Dec'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading up 19 points at 18,175 US STOCKS CLOSE: US stocks Monday gave back a portion, but not all, of the solid gains posted Friday. The DJIA closed down 0.30% at 18,253.85, the Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.21% at 5, and the S&P 500 closed down 0.33% at 2, Last week's S&P 500 high was 2,175.30, seen Friday, and the prior week's high was 2,179.99, seen Sept 22. At Monday's close, the index was up 5.7% ytd and down 1.5% from the life-time high of 2,193.81, posted August 15. US TSY FUTURES: Treasury futures are seeing some early weakness on the back of Aussie bonds, which have seen heavy stop loss selling, with the Aussie/US 10yr spread looking to open up 3bp at the 47.8bp level. Currently 10yr futures are trading some 3-ticks lower from the close although volumes have been light as Tuesday evening sees the end of the Jewish New-Year holiday of Rosh Hashanah, which saw muted volumes Monday. As for today 10yr futures see key support at , while /05 is seen capping gains. Cash 10's are last quoted at or 1.631% bid down from their or 1.622% NY close JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have had a positive morning session supported by a weak Yen on the back of higher US treasury yields, with domestic real-money accounts also cited behind the small bid. The Nikkei has closed for lunch up 0.88% or points at 16,744.60, while the Topix is up 0.67% or 8.91 points GOLD: Spot gold last down $0.20 at $1, per ounce, in a $1, to $1,310.0o5 range so far this morning in Asia, with the market remaining under pressure after a better-than-expected ISM index on Monday, although Asian trade is quiet with Chinese investors out this week for their Golden Week holidays. Technically, the market currently targets a return to the Sept 21 lows near $1,308. The 100-day moving average comes in at $ Other than a week in late May/early June, gold last traded below its 100-day on a sustained basis in Jan OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Nov'16 delivery last down $0.32 at $48.49 per barrel, after a $48.94 to $48.38 range in Asia today, with the market reversing much of Monday's gains on fears of US inventory increases in this week's API and DOE data. Also, Libya is expected to increase its output this month which is weighing in on sentiment. However, Asian trade has been quiet with China out on their Golden week holidays this week, with China shipping gasoline to the US for the first time in 9-years this week Bloomberg reports due to high US prices.
3 Technical Analysis BUND: (Z16) Looking A Little Heavy *RES 4: Low Aug 29 now resistance *RES 3: Low Aug 2 now resistance *RES 2: High Sept 30 *RES 1: High Oct 3 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: Low Sept 23 *SUP 2: Hourly resistance Sept 22 now support *SUP 3: DMA *SUP 4: DMA *COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of was less than ideal for bulls when combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B. The support is key this week with bears needing a close below to shift immediate focus to the 21 & 55-DMAs ( ). Bulls now need a close above to reconfirm a bullish bias and above to shift focus to EUROSTOXX: Resistance Region Key *RES 4: Weekly Bollinger band top *RES 3: High Sept 8 *RES 2: Bollinger band top *RES 1: High Sept 22 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: Low Sept 16 *SUP 2: Bollinger band base *SUP 3: Low Aug 3 *SUP 4: High July 6 now support *COMMENTARY: The dip below the support Friday lacked follow through with the aggressive recovery providing bulls with some comfort. In saying that the resistance region remains key with bulls needing a close above to target the 100-WMA ( ). Daily studies are at neutral levels and providing few clues. Bears need a close below to confirm focus on 2016 lows.
4 Eurex Futures Market Close
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