Morning Briefing June 13 th 2016
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- Ronald Hensley
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1 A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl Morning Briefing June 13 th 2016 Monday sees a very slow start to the trading week, with little in the way of euro area or UK data and only limited releases in the US. The European calendar gets underway at 1300GMT, when ECB Supervisory Board Chair Daniele Nouy speaks at the ECON Committee, in Brussels. At 1340GMT, the ECB will call for bids on Tuesday's 7-day MRO, before announcing the latest PSPP bond buying details at 1350GMT. Riksbank Gov. Stefan Ingves will deliver a speech on "The development of the financial sector and its effect on the economy", in Sopot, Polen, expected at 1440GMT. There are no US Fed speakers scheduled ahead of this week's FOMC meeting. The only data on the calendar comes at 1500GMT, with the release of the June NY Fed survey of consumer expectations. Global Economic Trading Calendar
2 Markets EURO-DOLLAR: Risk aversion has also seen the single currency lose ground against the greenback, falling from an earlier session high of $ through Friday's base at $ to a fresh low of $ Decent support lies just below, $1.1220/17 marks the 61.8% fib on the $ to $ rise and daily cloud base on the ichimoku's, traders have also made mention of a large option expiry for today at $ (E1.5bln), that could help to contain the near term range. Euro is currently changing hands at $ DOLLAR-YEN: Souring risk appetite amid much softer regional equities has seen the pair extend to move to the downside to a low so far of Y Nikkei 225 is the pack leader, down by just over 3.0%. Demand is expected on an approach to Y106.00, with support then seen at Y (YTD low May3). Dollaryen was last at Y106.1 US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading lower in the wake of the Orlando shootings with Friday's 'risk-off' trade continuing during the early part of Monday's Asian session. Currently the Jun'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading down 7.25 points at 2,089.00, the Jun'16 e- mini Nasdaq futures are trading down points at 4,449.75, while the Jun'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading down 56 points at 17,810. US STOCKS CLOSE: US Stocks closed lower afternoon action on Friday, but have rebounded slightly from the lows. The DJIA is down.67% at 17,865, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.29% at 4894 and the S&P 500 down -.92% at 2,096. The S&P 500 posted a high of 2, Wednesday, the highest level since July 21, 2015, when the index peaked at 2, Tuesday's close (2,112.13) above the 2016 high of 2,111.05, seen April 20, targets the life-time high of 2,134.72, seen May 20. Ahead of that lurks the July 20, 2015 peak at 2, Market players want to see sustained gains before becoming too bullish. US TSY FUTURES: Treasury futures have posted fresh session highs as Chinese investors return from their 2- day holiday late last week, with 'risk off' trade intensifying resulting in the Nikkei down ~3%, while e-mini S&P futures are now down 8.00 points. This has seen 10yr futures now up 7- ticks from Friday's close, with the last 40-minutes or so of trade seeing some 12.3k trade. Cash has seen the curve bull-steepen as the belly out performs, with 10's down close to 2bp to last trade at %. JAPAN STOCKS: A surging yen due to an ongoing risk aversion arising from the Brexit vote and Florida shootings has seen Japanese shares hammered during Monday's morning session. The Nikkei has closed for lunch down 2.61% or points at 16,168.48, while the Topix is down 2.65% or points at 1, GOLD: Spot gold is last down $0.25 at $ per ounce, in a $ to $ range so far this morning in Asia, with the market unable to benefit from ongoing risk aversion after the Orlando shootings as well as ongoing Brexit fears which have seen Asian equity markets plunge. Support is seen at $ , while resistance is found at $1, OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Jul'16 delivery are last down $0.64 at $48.43 per barrel, after seeing a $50.42 to $49.80 range in Asia today, with ongoing risk aversion pressuring prices. Over the weekend fears of increasing Iranian supply as well as an increase in the Baker Hughes rig count for the second week in a row is weighing in on the market. Chinese investors have also returned today after their 2-day holiday late last week, with this morning's release of fixed asset investment data coming in weakerthan-expected.
3 Technical Analysis BUND: (U16) Immediate Focus On *RES 4: & Record high Feb 29 *RES 3: Weekly Bollinger band top *RES 2: Low Feb 24 now resistance (continuation) *RES 1: High June 10 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: Low June 9 *SUP 2: Low June 7 *SUP 3: High Apr 11 now support *SUP 4: DMA *COMMENTARY: The sequence of higher daily highs and lows continues with bulls firmly focused on the level. Daily studies are approaching O/B levels which is less than ideal for bulls. In saying that, initial support is still noted at with bears needing a close below to hint at cracks in the current rally. Overall bears look for a close below to hint at a deeper correction that initially targets EUROSTOXX: Pressure Returns To *RES 4: DMA *RES 3: High May 31 *RES 2: High June 3 *RES 1: DMA *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: Low May 6 *SUP 2: Bollinger band base *SUP 3: Monthly Low Apr 7 *SUP 4: Low Feb 24 *COMMENTARY: Having supported for most of last week, bears take comfort in the close below the 100-DMA ( ) Friday that sees pressure return to the region. Bears need a close below this region to confirm focus on a test of 2016 lows. The 100-DMA now becomes initial resistance with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and hint at a bounce back to
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