France both remained unchanged at 800.

Transcription

1 Traded price ( /tonne) Volume Traded Dairy Market Outlook European Dairy Market Overview 11 Sep. 14 The European Quotations continued to be weaker as physical markets in Europe continue to come under pressure. The Butter Quotations released Sep 1th were 2933, down 9 (2.98%) on the previous week. This marks the 9th consecutive week of declines and has the market down 623 (17.5%) since the start of July. The biggest move on the week was in France where the quotation dropped 22 to 29. The Dutch quotation declined by 5 to 29 while the German Quotation remained unchanged at. The SMP Quotations also declined on the week down 35 (-1.6%) on average to 282. France remained unchanged at 21 while Germany and the Netherlands dropped 65 and 4 respectively to 2135 and 21. This marks the tenth consecutive week of declines and has the average quotations down 811 (28%) from the start of July. The Whey quotations bucked the trend posting modest gains, likely a result of milk getting diverted away from cheese production in light of the Russian ban on European imports. The Whey quotations were up 7 to 87 with all the move being in the Netherlands where the quotations rose 2 to 82. Germany and Wed - Wed - Wed - Wed - 3 Sep 3 Sep 3 Sep 3 Sep 13:21 16:6 16:6 16:17 Thu - 4 Sep 13:38 France both remained unchanged at 8. Eurex Butter Futures Jan 15 Thu - 4 Sep 15:34 Volume Thu - 4 Sep 17:18 Fri - 5 Sep 9:23 29 Fri - 5 Sep 12:13 Traded Price Mon - Wed - Wed - Wed - 8 Sep 1 Sep 1 Sep 1 Sep 12:4 1:31 1:49 11:31 The week Sep 1st to 5th saw a total of 136 contracts trade across the three Eurex dairy contracts down slightly from the previous week where 225 contracts had traded. Butter continued to be the dominant contract in terms of traded volume with 115 contracts trading of the 136 total. The January contract was the most actively traded last week with 31 lots trading in the week. The traded prices continued to trend lower last week with for example the Jan and Feb contracts trading at 298 last Wednesday 3rd and Jan trading down to 29 by Friday 5th. Prices have moved a touch lower and are now

2 Deliveries (millions litres/day) Deliveries (millions litres per week) maintaining at about the 2875 level so far this week in the Q1 contracts. 21 contracts traded in SMP last week with the majority 2 lots trading on the Tuesday 2nd. UK milk collection was up 6.9% (2.5m litres/day) for the first 3 days of August, averaging 36m litre/day. It was a month of two halves, with the first half of the month seeing collections fall by 1.25% and the second half by only.25% as collections levelled out and even bounced slightly. The seasonal low for UK milk production is normally early to mid-october, before climbing towards peak production in May/June. For the quota year to date, UK milk production is up 8.55% (491 million litres) as the strong milk production has continued on historically high prices and favourable weather conditions Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar French Weekly Milk Collection 5 Year Range 14/15 vs 13/14 %Δ 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 14/15 vs 13/14 YTD %Δ Source: FranceAgriMer UK Daily Milk Deliveries (7 day rolling Average) 26 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 5 Year Range 14/15 vs 13/14 %Δ 212/13 213/14 214/15 5 Year Average 14/15 vs 13/14 YTD%Δ Source: AHDB/DairyCo 45% 42% 39% 36% 33% 3% 27% 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% % 6% 56% 52% 48% 44% 4% 36% 32% 28% 24% 2% 16% 12% 8% 4% % -4% -8% -12% Taking a basket of EU milk prices based on LTO published data we see milk prices as of end of July averaging c/kg, down about.45c from the June number. Based on our internal models we see the milk prices in Oceania Market Overview Last week s GDT auction saw the slide continue after the pause in the previous auction. The 1:46 long event saw 57,1 tonnes of product sold, with GDT index moving down by 6% and an average winning price of US$2787. Prices were down across the board, with fat and protein products all seeing large falls. After seeing a 3.4% bounce in the previous auction, WMP gave up all those gains and then some, with the GDT index down by 4.3% and an average winning price of US$2673. All contract Europe still have a long way to drop to catch up with the equivalent commodity values and we calculate based on the current forward curves for Butter and SMP they have to come back to Changes in Price Indices months saw declines, but the main impact of the downward pressure was in the first four contract months. Contract 1 saw the biggest fall, down 8.6% and removing most the large GDT Auction: 2 Sep 214 below 31 cents/kg on average by peak production 215. This is down about c/1 Kg from the forward curve for the same period as of Jan 214. Contract 1 Contract 2 Contract 3 Contract 4 Contract 5 Contract 6 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 All Contracts US % Δ US % Δ US % Δ US % Δ US % Δ US % Δ % Δ Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF) - - 3, % 3, % 3,41-4.2% 3, % 3, % -5.8% Butter - - 2, % 2,816.7% 3,1 -.5% 3,85 1.1% % Butter Milk Powder (BMP) - - 3,14-15.% 3, % 3,58-8.4% % Cheddar (Ched) - - 3, % 3,27-6.7% 3,28-4.8% % Lactose (LAC) % Milk Protein Concentrate (MPC7) % Rennet Casein (RenCas) - - 1,55-15.% 1,14-14.% % % Skim Milk Powder (SMP) 2,78-2, % 2, % 2, % 2, % 3, % -9.5% Whole Milk Powder (WMP) 2, % 2,62-4.9% 2, % 2, % 2, % 2, % -4.3% All Products (Trade-Weighted) % % % % % -.3%.% All prices US/tonne, Source: Global Dairy Trade contract 1 premium that has been present for the last few months. This premium for contract 1 over contract 2 was US$25 at the start of August and moved down to US$3 in last Thursday, 11 September 214 Dairy Market Outlook Page 2

3 US$ tonne US$/tonne week s auction, and putting contract 1 WMP in US$ range. Contract 2 was down % (US$135-15) bringing it down to the US$ range. Contract 3 saw a similar decline, with prices down by % (US$135) putting prices in the US$ range. This trend continued with contract 4, down by 4.8% (US$135) to US$ This keeps the carry from contracts 2-4 almost unchanged at US$8-1. Contracts 5 and 6 saw very little change, with contract 5 flat to US$2 lower and contract 6 down US$ GDT Auction 2 September WMP Prices Fonterra NZ Regular WMP Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 3-Jun 17-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 5-Aug 19-Aug 2-Sep Source: Global Dairy Trade GDT Auction 2 September WMP premium over SMP SMP made another large move downwards, with a fall of 9.5% following on from the fall of 12% in the previous auction. Since the start of July this puts the SMP index down 31% and the average winning price has fallen from US$381 to US$26. In contract 1 Euroserum had the only product sold, with low heat at US$275 and medium heat at US$27. Contract 2 saw the biggest decline, falling by 11.5% overall. Arla medium heat was down US$ to US$ , while Euroserium followed contract 1 with low heat at US$275 and medium heat US$27. Fonterra contract 2 made the biggest fall, down %. (US$345-35) to US$ Contract 3-5 saw slightly smaller declines for Fonterra product, with contract 3 down US$ to US$ , contract 4 down US$ to US$ and contract 5 down US$225 to US$ The movements of WMP and SMP puts the WMP premium over SMP Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 5-Aug 19-Aug 2-Sep Fonterra NZ product: Regular WMP, Medium Heat SMP Source: Global Dairy Trade back into positive territory across the majority of the GDT forward curve for the first time since May. For November shipment, the premium gained US$215, going from -US$5 to +US$165, with December, January and February seeing similar moves up, of US$165, US$195 and US$23, bringing the premium back into positive. After moving up 3.6% in the previous auction, last week saw AMF give up all those gains and move lower, with the AMF index down by 5.8% and an average winning price of US$336. The largest declines were in the near contract months, with the more deferred contracts seeing smaller falls. Contract 2 made the biggest downwards move, falling by 7.6% (US$27-295) to US$ Contract 3 was down 5.9% (US$21) to US$ , while contract 4 was down 4.2% (US$15) to US$ Contracts 5 and 6 saw the smallest declines, down 2.7% and 1.8% respectively. Butter followed a similar trend to AMF, also giving up the gains from the last auction and moving lower, as the Butter index down 5.6%, with an average winning price of US$2753. Contract 2 provided the majority of that downward direction, with unsalted down US$42 (14%) to US$2565. Contract 3 was flat to US$2 higher at US$ , with contracts 4 and mixed, as contract 4 was down US$15 to US$ 31 and contract 5 was up US$35 to Thursday, 11 September 214 Dairy Market Outlook Page 3

4 US$/tonne lots US$385. This puts a carry across the full butter forward curve and removes the premium that was in place for contract 2 over contract 3, going from +US$19 to -US$ NZX Dairy Futures Contracts - Volume per Month The cheddar index was down 4.9%, making it five auctions on the trot where the cheddar price has falling 25% in that time. Contract 2 was down 3.1% (US$15) to US$3275, with the biggest decline in contract 3, down 6.6-7% (US$23-25) to US$ , while contract 4 was down 4.8% to US$328. After trading record volume in August, the NZX diary futures contracts have had a strong start to September. Last week saw 2119 contracts trade, with 1528 lots of WMP and 591 of SMP, with 125 lots trading so far this week, all of WMP. Last week WMP trade started strongly with Tuesday s session seeing prices move higher across the board ahead of the GDT auction. Oct14 started traded 25 followed by a further 5 lots at US$35. Nov14 saw a similar pattern, with 25 lots trading at US$38, with another 5 lots US$313 and US$315. Dec14 also moved higher, with 25 lots US$31 and 5 US$315, while Feb15 traded 3 lots US$31. After GDT moved lower on Tuesday, Wednesday s session saw prices shift lower, with the focus on Nov14 to Jan15. Nov14 traded 12 lots US$285 and US$287), with 195 lots in Dec ( US$29 and 165 US$285). Dec14 kept the carry in the forward curve, with 3 lots US$29. Thursday saw some more activity come in, with 14 lots in Sep14 US$268, 267 and US$27), 1 lots in 287 and 1 lots in US$295. Friday closed out the week with trades in the near months, with 8 lots in US$27 and 3 lots in 285. Oct 1 Feb 11 Jun 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Jun 12 Oct 12 Feb 13 Jun 13 Oct 13 Feb 14 Jun SMP had 1528 lots trade last week, with a large proportion of the volume before GDT on Tuesday. Tuesday saw 8 lots trade in 284, 1 lots each in Oct14 and US$284 and 5 lots in US$284. After GDT, this shifted lower, with Thursday seeing WMP SMP AMF Source: NZX GDT WMP- 5 Year Percentile Ranges and NZX Forward Curve 2,465 1 Sep 9 Mar 1 Sep 1 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Five Year High Five Year Low 11/9/214 GDT WMP Regular-NZ Contract 2 and NZX WMP forward curve 6, lots trade in US$255 and 5 lots in US$2575. Friday closed out the week with 16 lots trading in US$255. This week has seen prices firm somewhat, Monday started the week slowly with 2 lots in 287, 7 lots in US$287 and 25 lots in US$288. Tuesday saw some more firmness, with 5 lots in US$27, 1 lots in US$29, 1 lots in US$291 and 15 lots in US$2895, which continued on Wednesday with 6 lots in Oct14 US$295 and US$299) and 45 lots in Nov14 (3 US$296 and 15 Thursday, 11 September 214 Dairy Market Outlook Page 4

5 /tonne Open Interest USD/tonne Open Interest Dairy Market Weekly Recap Eurex Futures NZX Futures Butter Futures 1 Sep 3 Sep Change OI WMP Futures 1 Sep 3 Sep Change OI Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR) % - Sep-14 US$/tonne % 3428 Sep-14 /tonne % 39 Oct-14 US$/tonne % 2315 Oct-14 /tonne % 241 Nov-14 US$/tonne % 1885 Nov-14 /tonne % 184 Dec-14 US$/tonne % 279 Dec-14 /tonne % 123 Jan-15 US$/tonne % 2155 Jan-15 /tonne % 123 Feb-15 US$/tonne % 1 Feb-15 /tonne % 5 Mar-15 US$/tonne % 3 Apr-15 /tonne % 65 Apr-15 US$/tonne % SMP Futures 1 Sep 3 Sep Change OI Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR) % - Sep-14 /tonne % 21 Oct-14 /tonne % 67 Nov-14 /tonne % 46 Dec-14 /tonne % 28 Jan-15 /tonne % 5 Feb-15 /tonne % Apr-15 /tonne % NZX WMP Forward Curve 1 Sep 3 Sep Eurex Butter Forward Curve 1 Sep 3 Sep Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Apr Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 SMP Futures 1 Sep 3 Sep Change OI Sep-14 US$/tonne % 46 Oct-14 US$/tonne % 381 Nov-14 US$/tonne % 37 Dec-14 US$/tonne % 1 Jan-15 US$/tonne % Feb-15 US$/tonne % Mar-15 US$/tonne % Apr-15 US$/tonne % Whey Futures Spot Ref (DE/NL/FR) 1 Sep 3 Sep Change OI AMF Futures 1 Sep 3 Sep Change OI % - Sep-14 US$/tonne % 134 Sep-14 /tonne % 2 Oct-14 US$/tonne % 1 Oct-14 /tonne % 58 Nov-14 US$/tonne % Nov-14 /tonne % 23 Dec-14 US$/tonne % Dec-14 /tonne % 18 Jan-15 US$/tonne % Jan-15 /tonne % 7 Feb-15 US$/tonne % Feb-15 /tonne % 1 Mar-15 US$/tonne % Apr-15 /tonne % Apr-15 US$/tonne % Chicago Mercantile Exchange 1 Sep 3 Sep Change Ref Month Total OI Units Mar 12 Feb 13 Sep 14 #NAME? 1 Sep ( /tonne) Class III Milk % Sep-14 3,17 US$/cwt Class IV Milk % Sep-14 5,225 US$/cwt Cheese (Cash Settled) % Sep-14 15,112 US$/lb 3, Butter (Cash Settled) % Sep-14 5,131 US /lb 4, Nonfat Dry Milk % Sep-14 3,54 US /lb 2,67-58 Dry Whey % Sep-14 3,447 US /lb 1, Thursday, 11 September 214 Dairy Market Outlook Page 5

6 About Eurex Exchange Eurex Exchange is one of the leading global derivatives exchanges. Our offering comprises a broad range of futures and options on traditional and alternative asset classes as well as a growing range of commodities including precious metals, energy and agricultural derivatives. Together, Eurex Exchange and the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have daily trading volumes of about 1.5 million contracts. Eurex Exchange is a member of Eurex Group which also comprises the International Securities Exchange (ISE), European Energy Exchange (EEX), Eurex Clearing, Eurex Bonds and Eurex Repo. About FCStone INTL FCStone's customers include the producers, processors and end users of virtually every major traded commodity; commercial counter-parties; governmental, non-governmental and charitable organizations; institutional investors; brokers; professional traders; commercial banks; and major investment banks. Among our services are the proprietary Integrated Risk Management Program (IRMP), as well as exchange and OTC execution and clearing services, designed to limit risk and enhance margins and bottom-line results; physical trading in base metals, precious metals and grains; a global foreign exchange and currency payment service; asset management; equities market-making; securities execution and trading; and investment banking advisory services. INTL FCStone Dairy Contact Details European Office: Charlie Hyland: charlie.hyland@intlfcstone.com Liam Fenton: liam.fenton@intlfcstone.com John Lancaster: john.lancaster@intlfcstone.com INTL FCStone Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: ] In Ireland, the activities of INTL FCStone Ltd are subject to the supervision of conduct of business rules by the Central Bank of Ireland. Past performance may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Mention of specific commodities should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell these commodities. Commodity Trading is risky and INTL FCStone Ltd and FCStone Group LLC assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples. References to and discussions of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Ltd. Neither this information, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation to buy or sell futures or options or futures contracts, or OTC products. Reproduction without authorisation is forbidden. All rights reserved. Thursday, 11 September 214 Dairy Market Outlook Page 6

7 Deutsche Börse AG (DBAG), Clearstream Banking AG (Clearstream), Eurex Frankfurt AG, Eurex Clearing AG (Eurex Clearing) as well as Eurex Bonds GmbH (Eurex Bonds) and Eurex Repo GmbH (Eurex Repo) are corporate entities and are registered under German law. Eurex Zürich AG is a corporate entity and is registered under Swiss law. Clearstream Banking S.A. is a corporate entity and is registered under Luxembourg law. U.S. Exchange Holdings, Inc. and International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc. (ISE) are corporate entities and are registered under U.S. American law. Eurex Frankfurt AG (Eurex) is the administrating and operating institution of Eurex Deutschland. Eurex Deutschland and Eurex Zürich AG are in the following referred to as the Eurex Exchanges. All intellectual property, proprietary and other rights and interests in this publication and the subject matter hereof (other than certain trademarks and service marks listed below) are owned by DBAG and its affiliates and subsidiaries including, without limitation, all patent, registered design, copyright, trademark and service mark rights. While reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this publication to provide details that are accurate and not misleading at the time of publication DBAG, Clearstream, Eurex, Eurex Clearing, Eurex Bonds, Eurex Repo as well as the Eurex Exchanges and their respective servants and agents (a) do not make any representations or warranties regarding the information contained herein, whether express or implied, including without limitation any implied warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or any warranty with respect to the accuracy, correctness, quality, completeness or timeliness of such information, and (b) shall not be responsible or liable for any third party s use of any information contained herein under any circumstances, including, without limitation, in connection with actual trading or otherwise or for any errors or omissions contained in this publication. This publication is published for information purposes only and shall not constitute investment advice respectively does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. This publication is not intended for solicitation purposes but only for use as general information. All descriptions, examples and calculations contained in this publication are for illustrative purposes only. Eurex and Eurex Clearing offer services directly to members of the Eurex exchanges respectively to clearing members of Eurex Clearing. Those who desire to trade any products available on the Eurex market or who desire to offer and sell any such products to others or who desire to possess a clearing license of Eurex Clearing in order to participate in the clearing process provided by Eurex Clearing, should consider legal and regulatory requirements of those jurisdictions relevant to them, as well as the risks associated with such products, before doing so. Eurex derivatives (other than EURO STOXX 5 Index Futures contracts, EURO STOXX Select Dividend 3 Index Futures contracts, STOXX Europe 5 Index Futures contracts, STOXX Europe 6 Index Futures contracts, STOXX Europe Large/Mid/Small 2 Index Futures contracts, EURO STOXX Banks Futures contracts, STOXX Europe 6 Banks/Industrial Goods & Services/Insurance/Media/Personal & Household Goods/Travel & Leisure/Utilities Futures contracts, Dow Jones Global Titans 5 Index SM Futures contracts, DAX Futures contracts, MDAX Futures contracts, TecDAX Futures contracts, SMIM Futures contracts, SLI Swiss Leader Index Futures contracts, Eurex inflation/commodity/weather/property and interest rate derivatives) are currently not available for offer, sale or trading in the United States or by United States persons. Trademarks and Service Marks Buxl, DAX, DivDAX, eb.rexx, Eurex, Eurex Bonds, Eurex Repo, Eurex Strategy Wizard SM, Euro GC Pooling, FDAX, FWB, GC Pooling,, GCPI, MDAX, ODAX, SDAX, TecDAX, USD GC Pooling, VDAX, VDAX-NEW and Xetra are registered trademarks of DBAG. Phelix Base and Phelix Peak are registered trademarks of European Energy Exchange AG (EEX). The service marks MSCI Russia and MSCI Japan are the exclusive property of MSCI Barra. itraxx is a registered trademark of International Index Company Limited (IIC) and has been licensed for the use by Eurex. IIC does not approve, endorse or recommend Eurex or itraxx Europe 5-year Index Futures, itraxx Europe HiVol 5-year Index Futures and itraxx Europe Crossover 5-year Index Futures. Eurex is solely responsible for the creation of the Eurex itraxx Credit Futures contracts, their trading and market surveillance. ISDA neither sponsors nor endorses the product s use. ISDA is a registered trademark of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. IPD UK Annual All Property Index is a registered trademark of Investment Property Databank Ltd. IPD and has been licensed for the use by Eurex for derivatives. SLI, SMI and SMIM are registered trademarks of SIX Swiss Exchange AG. The STOXX indexes, the data included therein and the trademarks used in the index names are the intellectual property of STOXX Limited and/or its licensors Eurex derivatives based on the STOXX indexes are in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by STOXX and its licensors and neither STOXX nor its licensors shall have any liability with respect thereto.. Dow Jones, Dow Jones Global Titans 5 Index SM and Dow Jones Sector Titans Indexes SM are service marks of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index SM and any related sub-indexes are service marks of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and UBS AG. All derivatives based on these indexes are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones & Company, Inc. or UBS AG, and neither party makes any representation regarding the advisability of trading or of investing in such products. All references to London Gold and Silver Fixing prices are used with the permission of The London Gold Market Fixing Limited as well as The London Silver Market Fixing Limited, which for the avoidance of doubt has no involvement with and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for the underlying product to which the Fixing prices may be referenced. PCS and Property Claim Services are registered trademarks of ISO Services, Inc. Korea Exchange, KRX, KOSPI and KOSPI 2 are registered trademarks of Korea Exchange Inc. BSE and SENSEX are trademarks/service marks of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and all rights accruing from the same, statutory or otherwise, wholly vest with BSE. Any violation of the above would constitute an offence under the laws of India and international treaties governing the same. The names of other companies and third party products may be trademarks or service marks of their respective owners. Thursday, 11 September 214 Dairy Market Outlook Page 7