Morning Briefing June 9 th 2016
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1 A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl Morning Briefing June 9 th 2016 Another full calendar is scheduled for Thursday, although the data is again slewed towards the second half of the session. At 0800GMT, ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen will hold a press briefing on the outlook for the Finnish economy, in Helsinki. The only UK data on the roster comes at 0830GMT, when the May trade data will be published. With only two weeks to go until the referendum, the trade deficit with the EU, likely to be at a record high, will be a focus for both campaigns. At the same time, ECB Gov. Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau will sit on a panel discussing both the present and future of the Euro at Brussels Economic Forum 2016, in Brussels. Bundesbank Board member Carl- Ludwig Thiele will deliver a speech on the 8 th Bayreuther Economy Congress, in Bayreuth, Germany, starting at 1130GMT. Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at 1230GMT, with the publication of the latest jobless claims data. The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 3,000 to 270,000 in the June 4 holiday week after falling by only 1,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average fell by 1,750 to 276,750 in the May 28 week after four straight gains and should decline further in the current week's data. The average would fall by 6,000 in the current week as the recent peak level of294,000 in the May 7 week will roll off the four-week average calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. Canadian data due at the same time includes the capacity utilisation data and the May new housing price index. At 1400GMT, the April US wholesale trade data will be released, followed by the DOE natural gas stocks data for the last week at 1430GMT. The Kansas City Fed LMCI data will cross the wire at 1500GMT, with the Fed domestic non-financial debt. The Fed's latest M2 weekly Money Supply Data will be published at 2030GMT. Global Economic Trading Calendar
2 Markets FOREX: The Asia-Pacific session got off to a lively start on news the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had decided to leave the cash rate unchanged, the kiwi rose from $ to $ before easing to around $ Then, following Governor Wheeler's rather upbeat press conference, another wave of buying took the rate to a one-year high of $0.7139, subsequent dips were limited to $0.7100, the pair ending the session at $ Aussie-dollar rode higher on the kiwi's coattails, reaching a fresh high of $ before local importer supply and selling of Aussie-yen from Japanese accounts pressured the rate lower to $ Aussiedollar was last at $ Dollar-yen remained heavy throughout the session, weighed down by the Nikkei 225 the rate eased lower from Y to Y and was last at Y Euro-dollar managed to print a fresh high, rising from $ to $ and was last at $ Although China markets were closed, China CPI and PPI were both released, but made no discernible impact. Elsewhere, Bank of Korea surprised markets by cutting rates by 25bps to 1.25%. US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading slightly weaker in quiet trade with China, Hong Kong and Taiwan all closed for the Tuen Ng (Dragon Boat) Festival. However, a surprise BOK rate cut, as well as worse-than-expected China CPI data has pressured the Nikkei lower and spilling over into US index futures. Currently the Jun'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading down 2.15 points at 2,115.75, the Jun'16 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading down 4.00 points at 4,515.00, while the Jun'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading down 14 points at 17,981. US STOCKS CLOSE: US stocks posted modest gains Wednesday, which flew in the face of the trading action in US and German fixed income, which saw safe-haven bond demand on Brexit jitters. The DJIA closed up 0.37% at 18, the Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.26% at 4, and the S&P 500 closed up 0.33% at 2, The S&P 500 posted a high of 2, earlier, the highest level since July 21, 2015, when the index peaked at 2, Tuesday's close (2,112.13) above the 2016 high of 2,111.05, seen April 20. US TSY FUTURES: Treasury futures have squeezed to fresh session highs as Chinese inflation prints lower than expected. Consumer prices for May fell -0.5% on forecasts of a -0.2% fall y/y, while producer prices saw their deflationary trend abate somewhat falling only -2.8% vs -3.3% y/y. Interestingly many analysts expected food inflation to push the overall CPI rate higher due to surging pork prices, but food inflation only rose 5.9% in May vs. 7.9% in April y/y. Ten-year futures have added to their surprise BOK cut inspired gains to post a high, to currently trade up 2-ticks from the close on decent volumes of 26k. JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have fallen sharply weighed down by a strong Yen, after risk appetite waned after the BOK surprise rate cut, while Chinese inflation data surprised to the downside. Also the BOJ's Nakaso comments which ruled out any further easing in the shortterm also weighed in on prices. The Nikkei has closed for lunch down 0.91% or points at 16,677.84, while the Topix is down 0.92% or points at 1, GOLD: Spot gold last down $0.48 at $ per ounce, in a $ to $ range so far this morning in Asia, after a solid session in Europe Wednesday on the back of more monetary stimulus from the ECB. The ECB announced it would begin to buy corporate debt, which saw gold steadily rise from just above $1240 to almost $1265. A new high for the recent rally was made this morning with the USD weaker across all the majors but the metal has begun to ease into a consolidating band between $1260 and $1265. OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Jul'16 delivery last up $0.32 at $51.55 per barrel, after a $51.23 to $51.67 range in Asia today, on low volume but consolidating just under the new 10 month high made earlier in the session. The contract finally broke through the Oct '15 high on Wednesday as the DOE/EIA data confirmed the API data earlier with a solid drop in inventories. Continued unrest in Nigeria is also helping boost demand but again, Nigeria is more a concern than a hard problem given they are only the second largest producer in Africa.
3 BUND: (U16) Bollinger Top Limiting Follow Through *RES 4: & Record high Feb 29 *RES 3: Weekly Bollinger band top *RES 2: Low Feb 24 now resistance (continuation) *RES 1: High June 7 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: Low June 7 *SUP 2: High Apr 11 now support *SUP 3: DMA *SUP 4: Low June 2 *COMMENTARY: Gains continue following Monday s consolidation with immediate bullish focus on and overall focus on 2016 and record highs. Layers of support remain with bears still needing a close below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift focus back to where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted. The Bollinger band top (164.35) is the key concern for bulls as it continues to limit follow through. EUROSTOXX: 100-DMA Support Confirms Significance *RES 4: High Jan 5 *RES 3: Monthly high Apr 21 *RES 2: DMA *RES 1: High May 31 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: DMA *SUP 2: Low May 6 *SUP 3: Bollinger band base *SUP 4: Monthly Low Apr 7 *COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA confirmed significance as support with the recovery from last week s test buying bulls a little breathing room. While the 100-DMA supports bulls retain focus on the region where the 200-DMA is located. Closes above the 200-DMA were last seen late Nov/early Dec. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below to target 2016 lows ( ).
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