A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl
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1 A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl Morning Briefing January 20th 2017 Friday throws up a muted data calendar, but the main feature of the day comes late in the European afternoon, with the inauguration of the new President in the US. The European calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the publication of the German December PPI data. At 0900GMT, the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters will be published. The UK December retail sales data will be published at 0930GMT. Retails sales will almost certainly exert a positive influence on fourth quarter GDP when data for the month of December 2016 is published. Accounting for 5.6% of UK GDP, retail sales would have to fall by an unprecedented 6.9% mom for Q4 sales volumes to be unchanged from that of Q3. Analysts expect sales, including automotive fuel, to have contracted between November and December, pencilling in growth of -0.4% mom. Excluding fuel, they also saw sales volumes down by 0.4% in December. On the year, however, they forecast sales volumes to be up 6.6% on the year in December and that of sales excluding fuel to be up 7.5% yoy. In November, sales volumes were hampered by reduced fuel purchases with consumers put off hitting the pumps due to higher prices. The implied deflator for automotive fuel increased by an annual rate of 7.1% in November, the third consecutive increase, ending a run of negative outturns stretching back as far as late As such, fuel sales were down 2.2% between November and December and up just 0.4% on the year. To put this into perspective, fuel sales volumes have been expanding at an average rate of 7.1% yoy each month in Consumer spending has in part been propped up by double digit growth in consumer credit, with repayment rates at historic lows. Global Economic Trading Calendar Across the Atlantic, the calendar gets underway with the release of the Canadian CPI and retail trade data. At 1400GMT, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Harker discusses the economic outlook at New Jersey Bankers Association 6th Annual NJ Economic Leadership Forum in Somerset, N.J., with media Q&A The NY Fed GDP Nowcast is set for 1615GMT. The main event of the day comes at 1700GMT, when Donald J Trump IS inaugurated as 45th President of USA. He will give his first speech as President straight after. At 1800GMT, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John C. Williams gives the closing remarks at the Bay Area Council 10th Annual Economic Forecast in San Francisco Calif., with audience Q&A. --
2 Markets SNAPSHOT: Below gives levels of key markets ahead of London session:- Xetra-DAX called down 2pts at the open~ - FTSE-100 called up 12pts- Wall Street called up 17pts - US 10-year note yield trades down 2.2bp to 2.452% - Bunds called up 18 ticks to Spot euro-dollar is up 0.15 cents, currently at $ Spot dollar-yen opens up 0.15 cents, currently at Y Brent crude oil rises 0.15 cents, currently at $ Spot gold rises 2.66 dollars, currently at $ *China Q4 GDP +6.8%, Above Expected; Output/Invest Weaker *YELLEN: WAGE GAINS SUBDUED, PICKING UP ONLY MODESTLY RECENTLY *ECON GROWTH UNLIKELY TO PICK UP MARKEDLY IN NEAR TERM US DEALER POSITIONS IN US TSYS +$21.1B TO $98.0B JAN 11 WK CHINA RATES: The Ministry of Finance announced it sold CNY10 billion in 91-daytreasury bills at a yield of % in an auction Friday, which was higher than the last auction result of % last Friday. CHINA RATES: The seven-day repo rate average was % after opening at 2.25%,lower than Thursday's average of %. The overnight repo average was2.3323%, lower than Thursday's overnight average %. FOREX: Following the rally in the USD that received support from Fed Chair Yellen's comments early Thursday, the USD is remains gently offered with traders remaining nervous ahead of Trump's inauguration. US!0yr yields have drifted a little lower from the open and were last at and on the lows for the day which isn't helping the USD. The DXY is also looking a little heavy and last at after opening at The usual Asian morning retracement was noted as traders squared some positions and others looked to take advantage of better levels. Fed Chair Yellen's comments were likely to have been a factor in the USD regaining an offered tone as markets may not have liked references to adjusting monetary policy gradually and unsustainable deficits on the horizon. Japan Finance Minister Aso was noted commenting on the undesirability of rapid currency fluctuations but the comments were not market moving. The Nikkei has been relatively subdued having traded a range and last at November..
3 Technical Analysis BUND: (H17) Support Confirms Significance *RES 4: DMA *RES 3: Hourly resistance Jan 17 *RES 2: Hourly resistance Jan 18 *RES 1: Hourly resistance Jan 18 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: Low Jan 19 *SUP 2: Low Jan 9 *SUP 3: Low Dec 19 *SUP 4: Low Dec 12 *COMMENTARY: The correction lower from the failed attempt to challenge the 100-DMA resulted in a dip below the 55-DMA (162.92) only to bounce from ahead of the support. Bears still need a close below to end bullish hopes and confirm a return in focus to the region. Bulls continue to look for a close above to see immediate shift to the 100-DMA. Overall bulls need a close above to confirm a bullish bias and initially target EUROSTOXX: Bollinger Bands Hint At Breakout *RES 4: High Dec *RES 3: High Jan *RES 2: High Jan 9 *RES 1: High Jan 19 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: *SUP 1: Low Dec 22 *SUP 2: Low Dec 16 *SUP 3: WMA *SUP 4: High Dec 12 now support *COMMENTARY: Oscillation around the 21-DMA ( ) continues with bulls now needing a close above to see focus return to the region. Bulls continue look for a close above to reconfirm a bullish bias and target Dec 2015 monthly highs. Initial support is now noted at with bears needing a close below to pressure the key with a close below needed to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to
4 Eurex Exchange. An exchange for the better. As one of the world s leading derivatives exchanges we offer a broad range of international benchmark products. We operate the most liquid EUR fixed income derivatives markets, provide the broadest range of equity index derivatives worldwide and are the platform of choice for European equity derivatives. In addition, we cover derivatives on dividends, volatility and ETFs. All on one single platform. Innovative and reliable technology supplies about 400 participants and 7,500 traders in 35 countries with access to more than 2,000 products across nine traditional and alternative asset classes. Essential Macroeconomic and Market Intelligence MNI is the leading provider of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets. Our credibility for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of journalists in 12 bureaus across America, Asia, and Europe truly set us apart from other news sources. Our markets reporting staff includes former fixed-income and currency traders and strategists who know the markets, while our macroeconomic policy and data correspondents combine economics expertise with rigorous financial journalism. MNI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Hale Global Contact MNI: Nick Shamim, Managing Editor , nick.shamim@mni-news.com MNI Sales uksales@marketnews.com nysales@marketnews.com Eurex is part of Deutsche Börse Group.
5 Published by Eurex Frankfurt AG Mergenthalerallee Frankfurt / Main Germany Eurex Zürich AG Selnaustrasse Zurich Switzerland ARBN Number Eurex Frankfurt AG ARBN Eurex, 2016 Deutsche Börse AG (DBAG), Clearstream Banking AG (Clearstream), Eurex Frankfurt AG, Eurex Clearing AG (Eurex Clearing) as well as Eurex Bonds GmbH (Eurex Bonds) and Eurex Repo GmbH (Eurex Repo) are corporate entities and are registered under German law. Eurex Zürich AG is a corporate entity and is registered under Swiss law. Clearstream Banking S.A. is a corporate entity and is registered under Luxembourg law. U.S. Exchange Holdings, Inc. and International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc. (ISE) are corporate entities and are registered under U.S. American law. Eurex Frankfurt AG (Eurex) is the administrating and operating institution of Eurex Deutschland. Eurex Deutschland and Eurex Zürich AG are in the following referred to as the Eurex Exchanges. 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Those who desire to trade any products available on the Eurex market or who desire to offer and sell any such products to others or who desire to possess a clearing license of Eurex Clearing in order to participate in the clearing process provided by Eurex Clearing, should consider legal and regulatory requirements of those jurisdictions relevant to them, as well as the risks associated with such products, before doing so. 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