BASIC TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Transcription

1 BASIC TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ONLINE TRAINING PROGRAM - YOU WILL UNDERSTAND BASIC CHART READING - YOU WILL ANALYZE YOUR CURRENT STOCKS - YOU WILL YOU USE YOUR COMPUTER TO SEARCH FOR SIGNALS - YOU WILL LEARN TECHNICAL VOCABULARY ESSENTIALS - YOU WILL BE INTRODUCED TO A VARIETY OF TECHNICAL TOOLS - YOU WILL LEARN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CRITERIA

3 IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION TANNER TRAINING LLC IS PROVIDING THIS TRAINING AND ANY RELATED MATERIALS (INCLUDING NEWSLETTERS, BLOG POSTS AND OTHER COMMUNICATIONS) FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. WE ARE NOT PROVIDING LEGAL, ACCOUNTING, OR FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES, AND THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION OR RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY STOCKS, OPTIONS, OR OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS OR INVESTMENTS. EXAMPLES THAT ADDRESS SPECIFIC ASSETS, STOCKS, OPTIONS OR TRANSACTIONS ARE FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND MAY NOT REPRESENT SPECIFIC TRADES OR TRANSACTIONS THAT WE HAVE CONDUCTED. IN FACT, WE MAY USE EXAMPLES THAT ARE DIFFERENT OR THE OPPOSITE OF TRANSACTIONS WE HAVE CONDUCTED OR POSITIONS WE HOLD. THIS TRAINING IS ALSO NOT INTENDED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ANY FUTURE RELATIONSHIP, BUSINESS OR OTHERWISE, BETWEEN THE STUDENTS OR PARTICIPANTS AND THE TRAINER. NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES ARE BEING MADE WITH RESPECT TO THESE SERVICES AND PRODUCTS. ALL INVESTING AND TRADING IN THE SECURITIES MARKETS INVOLVES RISK. ANY DECISION TO PLACE TRADES IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, INCLUDING TRADING IN STOCK OR OPTIONS, IS A PERSONAL DECISION THAT SHOULD ONLY BE MADE AFTER THOROUGH RESEARCH, INCLUDING A PERSONAL RISK AND FINANCIAL ASSESSMENT, AND THE ENGAGEMENT OF PROFESSIONAL ASSISTANCE TO THE EXTENT YOU BELIEVE NECESSARY.

4 ANDY S EDUCATION CONTINUUMTM LITTLE OR NO FINANCIAL EDUCATION BASIC CLASSES ADVANCED CLASSES SELECT YOUR STYLE MENTOR MARKET LABS 401 K MUTUAL FUNDS HANDS OFF STRATEGIES VOCABULARY CONTEXT CLASSES SPECIFIC RULES DETAILS SELECT YOUR STYLE EXPERIENCE PRACTICE INCOME! MARKET LABS PHASE 0 PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3

5 FOUR PILLARS OF INVESTING FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CASH FLOW RISK MANAGEMENT STRENGTH OF AN ENTITY STRENGTH OF A MARKET EARN UP, DOWN, SIDEWAYS EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED

6 FUNDAMENTALS AND CREATIVE ACCOUNTING Enron's Ken Lay: "There's No Other Shoe To Fall" After Jeffrey Skilling's Sudden Resignation, The New CEO Tries To Reassure Investors Q: There has been some concern among investors that perhaps there is more to his resignation than meets the eye, perhaps accounting or other issues that have yet to come to light. Is there anything more? A: There are absolutely no problems that had anything to do with Jeff's departure. There are no accounting issues, no trading issues, no reserve issues, no previously unknown problem issues. The company is probably in the strongest and best shape that it has ever been in. There are no surprises. We did file our 10-Q [with the Securities & Exchange Commission] a few days ago [Aug. 14]. And, if there were any serious problems, they would be in there. If there's anything material and we're not reporting it, we'd be breaking the law. We don't break the law. Q: THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN AMONG INVESTORS THAT PERHAPS THERE IS MORE TO HIS RESIGNATION THAN MEETS THE EYE, PERHAPS ACCOUNTING OR OTHER ISSUES THAT HAVE YET TO COME TO LIGHT. IS THERE ANYTHING MORE? A: THERE ARE ABSOLUTELY NO PROBLEMS THAT HAD ANYTHING TO DO WITH JEFF'S DEPARTURE. THERE ARE NO ACCOUNTING ISSUES, NO TRADING ISSUES, NO RESERVE ISSUES, NO PREVIOUSLY UNKNOWN PROBLEM ISSUES. THE COMPANY IS PROBABLY IN THE STRONGEST AND BEST SHAPE THAT IT HAS EVER BEEN IN. THERE ARE NO SURPRISES. WE DID FILE OUR 10-Q [WITH THE SECURITIES & EXCHANGE COMMISSION] A FEW DAYS AGO [AUG. 14]. AND, IF THERE WERE ANY SERIOUS PROBLEMS, THEY WOULD BE IN THERE. IF THERE'S ANYTHING MATERIAL AND WE'RE NOT REPORTING IT, WE'D BE BREAKING THE LAW. WE DON'T BREAK THE LAW.

7 WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN? SOVEREIGN INFLATION (QE) INCREASED SYSTEMIC RISK POLITICAL RISK (NET IMPORTER) WHEN IS IT LIKELY TO HAPPEN? SOVEREIGN DOLLAR CRASH S&P 500 VOLATILE INVEST INTERNATIONALLY? FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS STRENGTH OF AN ENTITY CORPORATE STABILITY (MARKET CAP) GROWTH (PEG) OBSOLESCENCE RISK INCOME (DIVIDEND) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS STRENGTH OF A MARKET CORPORATE SECTOR ROTATION OUT OF GAS? ANOTHER GEAR? PRICE CRASH STAGNANT PERSONAL EDUCATION INCREASE PERSONAL WHAT IS YOUR MOMENTUM? CREDIT INCREASE CASH FLOW WHAT DIRECTION ARE YOU HEADED? NET WORTH

8 PRICE IS REALITY Rent, Dividend, Sales Utilities, Debt Payments, Food, Tax Payments Stocks Real Estate Business Commodities Taxes, Mortgages, Debt

9 MARKET MAKERS IBM AAPL PG T KO BUYERS SELLERS WHAT ARE YOU ASKING FOR YOUR STOCK? ASK PRICE EX: $51.25 ( WHAT BUYERS PAY) WHAT WILL YOU BID FOR MY STOCK? BID PRICE EX: $51.25 ( WHAT SELLERS GET)

10 MARKET MAKERS IBM AAPL IBM AAPL PG PG T T KO KO BUYERS SELLERS MARKET MAKER WILL RAISE THE PRICE TO ATTRACT SELLERS

11 MARKET MAKERS IBM AAPL IBM AAPL PG PG T T KO KO BUYERS SELLERS MARKET MAKER WILL DROP THE PRICE TO ATTRACT BUYERS

12 PRICE ACTION STOCK CHARTS ARE A RECORD THAT TELLS THE STORY OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND UP TREND DOWN TREND SIDEWAYS LOW SUPPLY HIGH DEMAND HIGH SUPPLY LOW DEMAND STABLE SUPPLY AND DEMAND

13 TELL THE STORY SUPPORT RESISTANCE NO NO NO YES YES YES

14 SWING HIGH S SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK) SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK) SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK)

15 SWING LOW S SWING LOW (VALLEY) SWING LOW (VALLEY)

16 UP TREND UPTREND: HIGHER SWING HIGH S HIGHER SWING LOW S SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK) SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK) SWING LOW (VALLEY) SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK) SWING LOW (VALLEY)

17 DOWN TREND DOWNTREND LOWER SWING HIGH S LOWER SWING LOW S SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK) SWING LOW (VALLEY) SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK) SWING LOW (VALLEY) SWING LOW (VALLEY)

18 SIDEWAYS MARKET SIDEWAYS EQUAL SWING HIGH S EQUAL SWING LOW S SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK) SWING LOW (VALLEY) SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK) SWING LOW (VALLEY) SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK)

19 TRADING WITH THE TREND THE CHART IS REALITY WE CANNOT CHOOSE OR CONTROL THE TREND WE CAN CHOOSE OUR STRATEGY

20 WHEN DOES NO MEAN NO? UPTREND DOUBLE TOP NO NO NO! YES YES YES YES

21 WHEN DOES NO MEAN NO? DOUBLE TOP KISS GOODBYE? NO NO! NO NO! YES YES SUPPORT RESISTANCE??? YES

22 WHEN DOES NO MEAN NO? DOUBLE TOP DOWNTREND NO NO! NO SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK) YES SWING LOW (VALLEY) SWING HIGH (MOUNTAIN PEAK) YES SWING LOW (VALLEY)

23 CAN PATTERNS PREDICT THE FUTURE? NOPE. THE STOCK WILL FALL NO NO! YES YES DOUBLE TOP

24 A BETTER PHRASE IS GREATER LIKELIHOOD CHANCE OF RAIN NO NO! YES YES DOUBLE TOP

25 THUS, A DOUBLE TOP IS AN ALERT NO NO! YES YES DOUBLE TOP

26 HOW TO USE AN ALERT WHERE THERE S AN ALARM....THERE MIGHT BE FIRE ALERT WHERE THERE S SMOKE...THERE S FIRE CONFIRMATION

27 CHANGE IN TREND UPTREND: BULLISH STRATEGIES DOUBLE TOP: ALERT, END OF THE UPTREND KISS GOODBYE CONFIRMATION, START OF A DOWNTREND BEARISH STRATEGIES

28 NO NO NOTICE THE LEVELS OF SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE YES YES NO NO NO NO NO YES NO NO YES YES NO YES YES

29 SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES UP TREND DOUBLE TOP HEAD & SHOULDERS ACHIEVES A NEW HIGH MEET ITS PREVIOUS HIGH, BUT FAILS TO ACHIEVE A NEW HIGH FAILS TO EVEN MEET THE PREVIOUS HIGH

30 BASIC PATTERNS UP TREND DOUBLE BOTTOM INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS KISS HELLO ASCENDING TRIANGLE DOWN TREND DOUBLE TOP HEAD & SHOULDERS KISS GOODBYE DESCENDING TRIANGLE

31 REAL WORLD

32 WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN? SOVEREIGN INFLATION (QE) WHEN IS IT LIKELY TO HAPPEN? SOVEREIGN DOLLAR CRASH

33 TECHNICAL DATA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS HELPS US TELL THE STORY OF THE MARKET PRICE ACTION MACD VIX CANDLES TELL US THE RANGE IN WHICH THE STOCK TRADED TELLS US THE TREND AND MOMENTUM OF THE STOCK TELL US HOW VOLATILE THE MARKET IS (FEAR INDEX)

34 BULLISH CANDLES HIGH $25.00 CLOSE $24.90 THE STOCK TRADED AT $24.10 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. OPEN $24.10 THE STOCK WAS TRADING AT $24.90 AT THE CLOSE OF THE PERIOD. LOW $24.00

35 CANDLES TELL A STORY HIGH $25.00 HIGH OPEN $24.90 CLOSE CLOSE $24.10 OPEN LOW $24.00 LOW

36 THE DOJI INDECISION HIGH OPEN CLOSE $24.50 LOW THE STOCK TRADED AT $24.50 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE STOCK WAS TRADING AT $24.50 AT THE CLOSE OF THE PERIOD.

37 JERRY S LOVE LIFE MAN HANDS! SENSE OF HUMOR SAME HOBBIES WOW! SHE S CUTE!

38 JERRY S LOVE LIFE MAN HANDS! SENSE OF HUMOR MEETS HER MOTHER SAME HOBBIES WOW! SHE S CUTE!

39 COMMON PLACES FOR DOJI $5 $1

40 TECHNICAL DATA AND PROBABILITY THIS STOCK IS STILL TOO EXPENSIVE I MIGHT WANT TO BUY THIS, MMM... I CAN T DECIDE

41 THE DOJI DOJI A DOJI PRECEDED A 1200 POINT DROP IN THE DOW1200

42 STOCK SEARCH

43 STOCK SEARCH

44 RETRACE TO SUPPORT FLASH CRASH

45 MOVING AVERAGES

46 MOVING AVERAGE TEST SCORES A A A F F F AVERAGE GRADE TEST SCORES A A A F F F AVERAGE GRADE TEST SCORES A A A F F AVERAGE GRADE

47 MOVING AVERAGES

48 GOLDEN CROSS MOVING AVERAGES

49 MOVING AVERAGES DEATH CROSS GOLDEN CROSS

50 MOVING AVERAGES WEAKNESS: PRICE BELOW SLOW AVERAGE. STRENGTH: SLOW AVERAGE ABOVE FAST AVERAGE PRICE ABOVE FAST AVERAGE. FAST AVERAGE ABOVE SLOW AVERAGE

51 TECHNICAL DATA AND PROBABILITY BELOW MOVING AVERAGE ABOVE MOVING AVERAGE MA IS ACTING AS SUPPORT

52 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE

53 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE

54 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE

55

56 5 YEARS MA

57 MACD TELLS US THE TREND AND MOMENTUM OF THE STOCK

58 WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN? SOVEREIGN INFLATION (QE) WHEN IS IT LIKELY TO HAPPEN? SOVEREIGN DOLLAR CRASH

59

60 WHY DON T BROKERS JUST DO ALL THIS FOR ME? GOOD QUESTION. INCENTIVES TO INCREASE ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT 1,000 CLIENTS 1,000 AGES 1,000 DIFFERENT INCOMES 1000 DIFFERENT RISK TOLERANCES 1000 DIFFERENCE GOALS IF EACH HAS 10 STOCKS, STOCKS POSITIONS TO

61 ACTION EXERCISE DETERMINE THE TREND OF THE BROAD

62 ACTION EXERCISE DETERMINE THE TREND OF THE BROAD DETERMINE THE TREND YOUR STOCK

63 LONGER TIME FRAME

64 LONGER TIME FRAME

65 VIX = VOLATILITY (FEAR)

66 INVERSE ETF: VXX

67 INVERSE ETF: VXX

68

69 AVERAGE TRUE RANGE

70 CHARTS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS HELPS US THE TELL THE STORY OF THE MARKET PRICE ACTION MACD VIX CANDLES TELL US THE RANGE IN WHICH THE STOCK TRADED TELLS US THE TREND AND MOMENTUM OF THE STOCK TELL US HOW VOLATILE THE MARKET IS

71 CASH FLOW FROM THE STOCK MARKET IS AN EDUCATIONAL PROCESS TECHNICAL DATA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS HELPS US TELL THE STORY OF THE MARKET PRICE ACTION MACD VIX CANDLES TELL US THE RANGE IN WHICH THE STOCK TRADED TELLS US THE TREND AND MOMENTUM OF THE STOCK TELL US HOW VOLATILE THE MARKET IS

72 SOFTWARE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FASTER

73 FOUR PILLARS OF INVESTING FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CASH FLOW RISK MANAGEMENT STRENGTH OF AN ENTITY STRENGTH OF A MARKET EARN UP, DOWN, SIDEWAYS EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED

74 ANDY S EDUCATION CONTINUUMTM LITTLE OR NO FINANCIAL EDUCATION BASIC CLASSES ADVANCED CLASSES SELECT YOUR STYLE MENTOR MARKET LABS 401 K MUTUAL FUNDS HANDS OFF STRATEGIES VOCABULARY CONTEXT CLASSES SPECIFIC RULES DETAILS SELECT YOUR STYLE EXPERIENCE PRACTICE INCOME! MARKET LABS PHASE 0 PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3

75 CONGRATULATIONS! YOU HAVE JUST COMPLETED BASIC TECHNICAL ANALYSIS