Town Council and Vail Economic Advisory Council. Ralf Garrison, DestiMetrics. Date: December 16, Mountain Travel Market Update I.

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1 To: From: Town Council and Vail Economic Advisory Council Ralf Garrison, DestiMetrics Date: December 16, 2014 Subject: Mountain Travel Market Update I. BACKGROUND Ralf Garrison will give an update on market conditions in the mountain resort industry to the Town Council, Vail Economic Advisory Council and the community. II. ACTION REQUESTED OF COUNCIL Listen to the presentation and have an opportunity to ask questions of DestiMetrics. ATTACHMENTS Mountain Travel Market Update December 16, 2014

2 Vail Town Council Vail Economic Advisory Council Market Update ~ Summer Wrap Up ~ Winter Outlook Presented by Ralf Garrison Property of V-TRiP LLC Property All Rights of DestiMetrics Reserved All Right Reserved info@v-trip.org 1

4 Index 1. Introduction 2. Situation Synopsis 3. Market Update - Econometrics 3. Summer 2014 Review 4. Winter Outlook 5. Discussion Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved info@destimetrics.com

5 MTNWEST Aspen Avon, Colorado Breckenridge Beaver Creek Copper Gunnison/Crested Butte Jackson Hole Keystone Mt Bachelor Mammoth Lakes North Lake Tahoe Snowmass Steamboat Park City Area Summit County, CO Telluride Vail Winter Park

6 Antlers at Vail Sitzmark Lodge Arrabelle at Vail Square Sonnenalp Resort of Vail Destination Resorts Vail The Sebastian Vail Cascade Condos The Wren Vail Cascade Resort & Spa Tivoli Lodge Evergreen Lodge at Vail Vail International Four Seasons Resort Vail Vail Mountain Lodge Lion Square Lodge Vail Racquet Club Lodge at Lionshead Vail Spa Condominiums Lodge Tower Vail Marriott Manor Vail Resort The Lodge at Vail Montaneros The Ritz-Carlton Residences Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved

8 Index 1. Introduction 2. Situation Synopsis 3. Market Update - Econometrics 3. Summer 2014 Review 4. Winter Outlook 5. Discussion Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved info@destimetrics.com

9 Situation Assessment Conditions which impact your ability to do business over which you have no direct control. 8

10 Consumerism Demographic Disparity Age Wave / Gender /Race Mobile, Wearable Tech Sharing Generation Caution: Fragile, Fickle

11 Destination Magnets Ski/Board: Flat at 57m Efforts to Grow/Retain Summer: More Attractions Growing Faster on Smaller Base Occasion Travel - Up Conference - Down Attractions

12 Key for Destinations Hot, Warm, Cold Aging Rent By Owner: Sharing Economy Disintermediation Caution: Regulations Lodging

13 Index 1. Introduction 2. Situation Synopsis 3. Market Update - Econometrics 3. Summer 2014 Review 4. Winter Outlook 5. Discussion Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved info@destimetrics.com

14 Confidence, The Dow & Unemployment Jan. 07 November % 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Dow Jones Confidence Unemployment 17, % Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved

15 National Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. National Unemployment Rate January 2008-November 2014 Job Creation (1,000's) Jobs Created (1,000's) National Unemployment Rate (%) 12.0% % % % % % % -1,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved Info@destimetrics.com

16 Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- March '12: 134 pts June '06: 189 Sept'14: 168 pts Housing Equity on the Rise 250 S&P / Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (March 2000 = 100)

17 Index (March 1973=100) U.S. Dollar Real Foreign Exchange Rate Jan 10 Oct Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Source: Federal Reserve. Results reflect US dollar against seven major currencies (real index, i.e. inflation-adjusted). Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved

18 Index 1. Introduction 2. Situation Synopsis 3. Market Update - Econometrics 3. Summer 2014 Review 4. Winter Outlook 5. Discussion Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved info@destimetrics.com

19 Summer 2014 May October Year over Year % Change in NATIONAL INDUSTRY-WIDE Vail Occupancy 6% 4% ADR 4% 9% RevPAR 11% 13% 18

20 % Change in Occup. Rate & ADR Market Demand Industry Wide Summer 2014 Data as of October 31, % 14% 15% Percent Chg in Occupancy YTD: 2013 vs 2012 Percent Chg in ADR YTD: 2013 vs % 10% 8% 7% 7% 6% 4% 4% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 3% 6% 6% 6% 2% 2% 0% May 13 vs May 12 Jun 13 vs Jun 12 Jul 13 vs Jul 12 Aug 13 vs Aug 12 Sept 13 vs Sept 12 Oct 13 vs Oct 12 Summer Total Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved

21 Index 1. Introduction 2. Situation Synopsis 3. Market Update - Econometrics 3. Summer 2014 Review 4. Winter Outlook 5. Discussion 56% of revenue on the books as of 10/31/2015 Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved info@destimetrics.com

Occupancy Rate & % Chg in Occup Rate Vail Occupancy Winter 2014/15 Data as of November 30, 2014 100% 100% 80% 68% 76% 73% 80% 60% 50% 56% 49% 56% 56% 53% 52% 58% 60% 40% 31% 33% 40% 36% 37% 41% 39%

22 Occupancy Rate & % Chg in Occup Rate Vail Occupancy Winter 2014/15 Data as of November 30, % 100% 80% 68% 76% 73% 80% 60% 50% 56% 49% 56% 56% 53% 52% 58% 60% 40% 31% 33% 40% 36% 37% 41% 39% 40% 20% 0% -5% 1% 5% 7% 11% 13% 10% 13% 6% 20% 0% -20% -20% -40% November December January February March April Winter Total -40% Industry: Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved info@destimetrics.com

Average Daily Rate $ $178 $161 $578 $497 $549 Vail Average Daily Rate Winter 2014/15 $509 $464 $478 $494 $458 $499 $533 $479 $493 $314 $223 $233 $477 $421 $443 Percent Change in ADR Data as of

23 Average Daily Rate $ $178 $161 $578 $497 $549 Vail Average Daily Rate Winter 2014/15 $509 $464 $478 $494 $458 $499 $533 $479 $493 $314 $223 $233 $477 $421 $443 Percent Change in ADR Data as of November 30, 2014 $700 45% $600 40% 40% 35% $500 30% $400 25% $300 20% $200 $100 11% 16% 10% 8% 11% 13% 15% 10% 5% $0 November December January February March April Winter Total 0% Historic On the books Industry: Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved info@destimetrics.com

24 Revenue Per Available Room $ $56 $53 $288 $245 $308 $283 $246 $324 Vail RevPAR Winter 2014/15 $278 $240 $380 $215 $171 $360 $34 $22 $86 $195 $163 $255 Percent Change in RevPAR Data as of November 30, 2014 $400 70% $350 58% 60% $300 50% $250 40% $200 $150 26% 30% $100 17% 15% 16% 20% 20% $50 5% 10% $0 November December January February March April Winter Total 0% Historic On the books Industry: Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved info@destimetrics.com

% Change in Occupancy / ADR -4.8% 10.8% 0.8% 16.5% 4.8% 9.6% 7.2% Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.destimetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 7.8% 13.1% 11.2% 12.7% 40.

25 % Change in Occupancy / ADR -4.8% 10.8% 0.8% 16.5% 4.8% 9.6% 7.2% Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved info@destimetrics.com % 13.1% 11.2% 12.7% 40.3% 5.6% 13.3% Vail Market Demand Winter 2014/ % Data as of November 30, % 35.0% 30.0% Percent Change in YTD Occ. Rate Percent Change in YTD ADR 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Nov 14 vs Nov 13 Dec 14 vs Dec 13 Jan 15 vs Jan 14 Feb 15 vs Feb 14 Mar 15 vs Mar 14 Apr 15 vs Apr 14 Winter Total 24

26 % Change in Occup. Rate & ADR Industry Market Demand Winter 2014/15 Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved Preliminary Data as of November 30, % Percent Chg in Occupancy YTD: 2014/15 vs 2013/14 Percent Chg in ADR YTD: 2014/15 vs 2013/14 40% 35% 30% 25% 22% 20% 15% 10% 5% 7% 7% 12% 7% 6% 5% 16% 7% 5% 5% 18% 10% 6% 0% Nov 14 vs Nov 13 Dec 14 vs Dec 13 Jan 15 vs Jan 14 Feb 15 vs Feb 14 Mar 15 vs Mar 14 Apr 15 vs Apr 14 Winter Total 25

27 4% 4% 4% 5% 8% 7% 7% 7% 9% 11% 13% 13% 12% 11% 15% 19% 19% 19% 18% 17% 17% 16% 18% 17% 20% 21% 21% Occupany Rate % 23% 24% 23% 24% 26% 25% 27% 28% 29% 29% 31% 31% 30% 31% 30% 31% 32% 32% 35% 35% 34% 34% 33% 34% 33% 38% 38% 37% 37% 38% 40% 40% 40% 42% 41% 43% 42% 42% 44% 44% 46% 45% 47% 47% 47% 48% 47% 46% 45% 46% 50% 50% 56% 55% 54% 54% 56% Vail Multi-Destination Comparative Occupancy November 2014-April 2015 Preliminary Data as of November 30, % Vail Other Individual Destinations 50% All Destination Aggregate 40% 39% 40% 38% 30% 25% 20% 21% 10% 7% 0% Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Historic On the Books Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved info@destimetrics.com

29 Vail 7 Year Trend Index to 2007/08 Winter Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 30.0% % Chg Revenue vs 2007/ % 10.0% 8.5% 0.0% -10.0% -7.7% -3.0% -12.3% -20.0% -14.9% -17.9% -30.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 28

30 Industry 7 Year Trend Index to 2007/08 Winter Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 30% % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08 20% 10% 0% -10% -5.3% -10.5% -20% -19.1% -17.8% -30% -22.4% -25.0% -40% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs 29 '07/08

Wild Cards WEATHER Which is Most Reliable? Economic Forecasts? Weather Forecasts?

32 Mapping our journey: Waypoints toward new realities 31

33 Discussion Thank You For Your Support! Ralf Garrison 32

State of the Industry: Market Update

State of the Industry: Market Update Ralf Garrison, Director - DestiMetrics Business Intelligence Tom Foley, Director - Inntopia Business Intelligence May 23, 2017 DestiMetrics: Mountain West Clients Aspen