Perspective on Colorado s Budget and Economy

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1 Perspective on Colorado s Budget and Economy November 2012 Office of State Planning and Budgeting Henry Sobanet, Director Erick Scheminske, Deputy Director

2 Comparison of Change in ISM Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Indices through August Expanding Contracting 49.6 Nonmanufacturing is Outperforming the Softening Manufacturing Sector 30 Jan-00 Jun-00 Nov-00 Apr-01 Sep-01 Feb-02 Jul-02 Dec-02 May-03 Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Manufacturing Index Nonmanufacturing Index Office of State Planning and Budgeting 2

3 110 Change in Jobs Nationally and in Colorado (2000 to July 2012) Change in Number of Colorado Jobs Index Change in Number of Jobs Nationally 98 The graph compares the change in the number of jobs nationally and in Colorado since January of Index: March 2000=100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Colorado jobs level includes OSPB s estimates of forthcoming revisions to jobs data that are currently not published. The jobs figures will be benchmarked based on Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage data to more accurately reflect the number of jobs in the state than what was estimated based on a survey of employers. Office of State Planning and Budgeting 3

4 State General Fund Revenue, to Actual and Forecast $ in billions $8.5 $8.0 $7.5 $7.0 $6.5 $6.0 $5.5 $6.6 $5.6 $5.5 $5.8 $6.2 $7.0 $7.5 $7.7 $6.7 $6.5 $7.1 $7.7 $8.0 Forecast $8.1 $5.0 $4.5 $4.0 Office of State Planning and Budgeting 4

5 General Fund Revenue, to Actual and Adjusted for Population and Inflation $8.5 $8.0 $7.5 $ in billions $7.0 $6.5 $6.0 $5.5 $5.0 Adjusted for Inflation (Using 2007 as the Base Year) Actual Source: Office of State Planning and Budgeting, September 2012 Forecast Office of State Planning and Budgeting 5

6 35.0% % Change, to in Jobs, Personal Income, Income Tax Revenue, and Stock Market 34.0% 30.0% 25.0% 22.7% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 9.6% 5.0% 2.8% 0.0% Job Growth Personal Income Growth Individual Income Taxes S&P 500 Annual Average Office of State Planning and Budgeting 6

7 $1,300 Estimated Income Tax Payments and Colorado Capital Gains $19 Individual Income Tax Estimated Payments Revenue ($ in millions) $1,100 $900 $700 $500 $300 $ Colorado Individual Income Estimated Tax Payments (Actual through and Forecast through ) - Left Axis Colorado Capital Gain Income (Actual through 2010, Forecast through 2012 based on the Congressional Budget Office's Projections of National Capital Gain Income) - Right Axis $17 $15 $13 $11 $9 $7 $5 $3 $1 $ in billions Office of State Planning and Budgeting 7

8 General Fund Appropriations Office of State Planning and Budgeting 8

9 $9.0 General Fund Money, Spending, and Reserves, though ($ in Billions) $8.5 $8.0 $7.5 $7.0 $8.032 $582.3 million Above Required Reserve ($59 Million to State Education Fund) $0.281 $8.758 $717.1 million Above Required Reserve (All to State Education Fund) $0.298 $7.743 $8.445 $0.312 $8.133 $6.5 $7.168 $ Actual Funds (Preliminary) Total General Fund Spending Projected Funds Available Budgeted Spending General Fund Spending Required Reserve Funds Available Projected Funds Available Allowable Spending with Required Reserve Office of State Planning and Budgeting 9

10 Medicaid Enrollment Growth Projected Increase of 144% from to , , , , , , , , , ,000 Office of State Planning and Budgeting 10

11 Governor Hickenlooper s Budget Request The November 1, 2012 budget request includes targeted increases in several critical areas: Fully funding K-12 education at a rate that exceeds inflation plus enrollment Protecting the Last and the Least in Colorado Additional services to 809 people with developmental disabilities Additional early intervention services for children from birth to two years Increase funding for Older Coloradans Act and Elder Abuse Task Force Enhancing public safety Expanded mental health services for crisis response and community center capacity Office of State Planning and Budgeting 11

12 Governor Hickenlooper s Budget Request The November 1, 2012 budget request includes targeted increases in several critical areas: Growing support for institutions of Higher Education Enhancing economic development efforts New resources for film incentive rebates and loan guarantees Expanded tax incentive funding for job creators in Colorado Funding for tourism advertisement and Colorado branding efforts Investing in our infrastructure and local communities Ongoing COP payments and extensive controlled maintenance on State-owned buildings Average 3.% pay increase for State employees (COLA and Merit Pay) Saving for the future Expanding the required General Fund reserve from 4% to 5% Growing the balance in the Controlled Maintenance Trust Fund Office of State Planning and Budgeting 12

13 Governor Hickenlooper s Budget Request Table 1: Total Funds (by major category) Total Funds Total Funds Change % Change Health Care Policy and Financing $5,561,158,114 $6,036,722,041 $475,563, % K-12 Education 4,421,710,962 4,634,730, ,019, % Higher Education 3,033,991,124 3,102,280,175 68,289, % Human Services 2,071,322,439 2,121,783,957 50,461, % Transportation 1,119,353,686 1,267,760, ,407, % Corrections 737,580, ,698,794 5,117, % Other Departments 3,624,516,290 3,722,359,309 97,843, % 1,058,701, % Subtotal Department budgets 20,569,633,551 21,628,335,270 Controlled Maintenance Trust Fund 13,000,000 23,097,266 10,097, % Other Adjustments 628,687 15,712,476 15,083,789 N/A Other GF Obligations/Expenditures 173,483, ,100,446 35,617, % Total 20,756,745,599 21,876,245,458 1,119,499, % Office of State Planning and Budgeting 13

14 Governor Hickenlooper s Budget Request Table 2: General Fund (by major category) Total GF Total GF Change % Change K-12 Education $3,015,437,087 $3,016,915,356 $1,478, % Health Care Policy and Financing 1,857,115,475 2,031,840, ,724, % Corrections 651,332, ,570,996 4,238, % Higher Education 619,261, ,729,783 37,467, % Human Services 642,011, ,113,157 38,101, % Other Departments 771,304, ,468,700 70,164, % Subtotal Department budgets 7,556,462,062 7,882,638, ,175, % Controlled Maintenance Trust Fund 13,000,000 23,097,266 10,097, % Other Adjustments 628,687 15,712,476 15,083,789 N/A Other GF Obligations/Expenditures 173,483, ,100,446 35,617, % Total 7,743,574,110 8,130,548, ,974, % Office of State Planning and Budgeting 14

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